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Igrok Method. Q's & A's. Comments, thoughts and ideas

  • #6,701
  • Jul 12, 2011 9:29am Jul 12, 2011 9:29am
Quoting jupiter_peak
Look on the Daily chart. You will see that we need a lower right border that perhaps will be formed in a few days.

Lets see what the low of the week will be. Probably that will determine the lower border.

The green line touch (as a swing low) would determine a good symmetry for this one.

Looking good so far.
Heh i thought about this scenario, one thing i don't like is that it will bring the border very close to previous low in this case, but it could be a apportunity
  • #6,702
  • Jul 12, 2011 4:33pm Jul 12, 2011 4:33pm
Hello everyone,

I performed a bit of statistical analysis on the trend definition preseneted by aediaz here http://symfx.blogspot.com/2011/06/trend-definition-of-fx-market-video.html

Unfortunately the results weren't that good as I expected. I tested on EURUSD Daily data starting from 1999. Since I have Daily data I tried to define the Monthly trend using Daily bars.

Everytime the trend was UP I recorded the value of Close-Open, expecting a higher Close. This value is further normalized by a 30 day ATR. So basically I am recording how much ATRs the bars move UP when the trend is UP.

Same when the trend was DOWN, I recorded the value of Open-Close normalized by a 30 day ATR.

Summing everything up it resulted in a negative value, meaning this trend definition didn't provide any edge, at least by this method of testing. It neted -25.6 ATRs.

Compared with a simple Donchian breakout trend definition which resulted in a small but positive +7.35 ATRs.

Please bear with me, I'm not saying the method doesn't work, but at least as a mechanical trend definition there seems to be better tools out there. Maybe there's something else I'm missing... Ideas?

Cheers,
-soso
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #6,703
  • Jul 12, 2011 5:06pm Jul 12, 2011 5:06pm
Quoting soso
Hello everyone,

I performed a bit of statistical analysis on the trend definition preseneted by aediaz here http://symfx.blogspot.com/2011/06/trend-definition-of-fx-market-video.html

Unfortunately the results weren't that good as I expected. I tested on EURUSD Daily data starting from 1999. Since I have Daily data I tried to define the Monthly trend using Daily bars.

Everytime the trend was UP I recorded the value of Close-Open, expecting a higher Close. This value is further normalized by a 30 day ATR. So basically I am recording...
Soso, have in mind that the trend-definition (main move) alone isn't any strategy.

Other values should be included as well like stop losses, target profit and time of the day to name some. You have to define what results you are looking for in order to find something useful you can implement in your trading-strategy. Negative/positive ATR doesn't tell you too much.

I like that people back-test concepts themselves, not swallowing every piece of information out there raw. But as with most statistical experiment, answers differ from what you expected. I would start with daily/weekly as in the shown video. I would also make sure to understand every page of this thread.

Good luck :=)
Measure twice, cut once
  • #6,704
  • Jul 12, 2011 6:27pm Jul 12, 2011 6:27pm
Quoting soso
Hello everyone,

I performed a bit of statistical analysis on the trend definition preseneted by aediaz here http://symfx.blogspot.com/2011/06/trend-definition-of-fx-market-video.html

Unfortunately the results weren't that good as I expected. I tested on EURUSD Daily data starting from 1999. Since I have Daily data I tried to define the Monthly trend using Daily bars.

Everytime the trend was UP I recorded the value of Close-Open, expecting a higher Close. This value is further normalized by a 30 day ATR. So basically I am recording...

The information from the compiled data that Aediaz shared is very valuable information. You just have to read in between the lines as how to correctly use it inside the system. I think the test you performed has no meaning to this method as is.

There are WAY more ingredients to it.

However, I can guarantee you that once you put all the ingredients inside the cake, back test it, you will be surprised by the results and most-likely you will end with a TRUE trend follower system IMHO.

By the way, are you a programmer?

  • #6,705
  • Jul 13, 2011 12:28am Jul 13, 2011 12:28am
put all the ingredients inside the cake is impossible. That cake should be called Igrok's millioneir method.
  • #6,706
  • Jul 13, 2011 12:43am Jul 13, 2011 12:43am
Quoting aediaz1
It looks a bit different now.

This is my fourth summer in this thread. A "celebration-picture" from our summer-house in Norway Good summer.
sea bay hotel ?
  • #6,707
  • Jul 13, 2011 3:07am Jul 13, 2011 3:07am
Quoting aediaz1
Soso, have in mind that the trend-definition (main move) alone isn't any strategy.

Other values should be included as well like stop losses, target profit and time of the day to name some. You have to define what results you are looking for in order to find something useful you can implement in your trading-strategy. Negative/positive ATR doesn't tell you too much.

I like that people back-test concepts themselves, not swallowing every piece of information out there raw. But as with most statistical experiment, answers differ from what you...
Thanks, I kind of expected this kind of answer.
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #6,708
  • Jul 13, 2011 3:09am Jul 13, 2011 3:09am
Quote
By the way, are you a programmer?

Yep.
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #6,709
  • Jul 13, 2011 3:25am Jul 13, 2011 3:25am
Hello,

Where can I learn the strategy Igrok uses?

I used the Forum search but it only found this Q &A thread.
  • #6,710
  • Jul 13, 2011 3:45am Jul 13, 2011 3:45am
Quoting Forex5050
Hello,

Where can I learn the strategy Igrok uses?

I used the Forum search but it only found this Q &A thread.
First thing - the BOOK (http://www.amazon.com/Beat-Odds-Forex-Trading-Percentage/dp/0471933317). Then this thread with tons of useful info. Good luck.
Twitter: MrC_Forex ; Facebook: /pages/MrC-Forex/197693770247397
  • #6,711
  • Jul 13, 2011 3:46am Jul 13, 2011 3:46am
Quoting wolfraider
sea bay hotel ?
Its my better part summer-house. Could have been a hotel

Quoting soso
Thanks, I kind of expected this kind of answer.
Welcome
Measure twice, cut once
  • #6,712
  • Jul 13, 2011 3:48am Jul 13, 2011 3:48am
I guess the answer is to buy his book, although he has another due out later this year.

Then after you have read the book ask questions here, hence the Q & A title.


Edit: You beat me to it MrC, and with a link.
Good Trading
  • #6,713
  • Edited 6:24am Jul 13, 2011 6:08am | Edited 6:24am
Also don't forget to read Igrok's article of intraday #18/4 setup

And don't much rely on THE BOOK (where he, for example, in diamond template advices to trade on brake out on the fifth approach and against main diagonal therefor totaly reducing chances)
  • #6,714
  • Jul 13, 2011 6:30am Jul 13, 2011 6:30am
Quoting wolfraider
put all the ingredients inside the cake is impossible. That cake should be called Igrok's millioneir method.
Oh, yes, it's very much possible.

1. You have to know which ingredients. By 'all', I mean those pertinent to each template itself;
2. Once you know which, one needs to know how...;
3. Once you know that, you need to know when...;
4. once you know that, you need to know how much....

... and so forth.

Again, once one knows how to mix ALL the ingredients pertinent to each portion (template), than each one, by itselves, can become true trend follower systems.

And those "ALL" ingredients, followed like a machine, work out pretty good.
  • #6,715
  • Jul 13, 2011 8:30am Jul 13, 2011 8:30am
By the way,

ID 18.4s on USDCHF and EURAUD.

;-)
  • #6,716
  • Jul 13, 2011 8:32am Jul 13, 2011 8:32am
Quoting jupiter_peak
By the way,

ID 18.4s on USDCHF and EURAUD.

;-)
Whats the odds of my only 2 positions are those two pairs and the same scenario Euraud is also HNS while usdchf had flat surface too. Well spotted
Measure twice, cut once
  • #6,717
  • Edited 9:10am Jul 13, 2011 8:38am | Edited 9:10am
Quoting aediaz1
Whats the odds of my only 2 positions are those two pairs and the same scenario Euraud is also HNS while usdchf had flat surface too. Well spotted
Depending on your broker... GBPCAD too.... ;-)

All targets hit.
  • #6,718
  • Jul 13, 2011 2:48pm Jul 13, 2011 2:48pm
Quoting soso
Hello everyone,

I performed a bit of statistical analysis on the trend definition preseneted by aediaz here http://symfx.blogspot.com/2011/06/trend-definition-of-fx-market-video.html

Unfortunately the results weren't that good as I expected. I tested on EURUSD Daily data starting from 1999. Since I have Daily data I tried to define the Monthly trend using Daily bars.

Everytime the trend was UP I recorded the value of Close-Open, expecting a higher Close. This value is further normalized by a 30 day ATR. So basically I am recording...
I guess digital calculations is what makes this analysis confusing, because discretion component is always present in the market. For example there is some days in the market which are not "normal" days - bank holidays, very volatile days, these are not that common on daily basis. I think that distorts analysis. Also i found mentioned few times in this thread by Igrok, that best way to determine ADR is visual.
If we took EUR/USD daily bars for two months back for example, those "normal bars" varies from 110 to 160 pips. Now having setup with ~ 60 pip trading range, taking the trade with 30 pip stop loss and setting the target to 100 pips is what gives the edge in this case.
Though is my opinion only but bet that there is some guys in this thread that could confirm that
  • #6,719
  • Jul 13, 2011 3:43pm Jul 13, 2011 3:43pm
Quoting aediaz1
Whats the odds of my only 2 positions are those two pairs and the same scenario Euraud is also HNS while usdchf had flat surface too. Well spotted
I'd say EUAUD was a pretty legit candidate for this one too...

Check it out.
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  • #6,720
  • Jul 14, 2011 12:00am Jul 14, 2011 12:00am
And possible scenario on bigger
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