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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #98,341
  • Jul 13, 2011 11:27am Jul 13, 2011 11:27am
Mike,

Would it be too much to ask to post you trading stats. i don't want to know you account size or anything related to money. just the trade statistics wins and losses.

I think it would be of great educational value to newbies, no?
  • #98,342
  • Jul 13, 2011 11:28am Jul 13, 2011 11:28am
Quoting esbatu
Hi Mike, thanks again for this reminder (your post and James' regarding R:R). Actually based on my very limited experience, I would have to agree r:r is irrelevant. Really glad that I am on right track. Many thanks again.

Btw Mike, do u have any record about NFP day? (I know u keep a proper record )

Yes it is a HUGE myth that you have to have a great R:R to trade. If that works for you then go with it. But the reality is it's whatever works for someone. After a decade nothing rings more true and I wish I knew this 9+ years ago.

I have already received two PMs saying that I am wrong. SO I get it. But what people must understand is that if what they are doing is not working, why not try a different mindset. It's a lot of trial and error and no two traders will be alike. That's hard for people to grasp because it means that everyone's journey will be different.

As for NFP. I trade it like any other day for the most part E. I have winning NFPs off trades and losing ones. I really ignore that stuff for the most part. Another message that people will probably scream at me about

Hope it helps!
Mike
  • #98,343
  • Jul 13, 2011 11:30am Jul 13, 2011 11:30am
Quoting Razorman
Mike,

Would it be too much to ask to post you trading stats. i don't want to know you account size or anything related to money. just the trade statistics wins and losses.

I think it would be of great educational value to newbies, no?
I support. Just for the purpose of motivation and encouragement...
  • #98,344
  • Jul 13, 2011 11:33am Jul 13, 2011 11:33am
Quoting Razorman
Mike,

Would it be too much to ask to post you trading stats. i don't want to know you account size or anything related to money. just the trade statistics wins and losses.

I think it would be of great educational value to newbies, no?
I could Razor, but what I make and my trade stats are mine to be honest. It varies month to month and it's not something I have the desire to do. July I am up 3+% with open profit. June I made 2.81%, etc. I could do that but frankly I don't see the purpose it serves. I save a lot of my actual trade discussion for the PF(which anyone there knows) It serves very little purpose to benchmark yourself on someone else. I tell people I make 3% for a month some say how amazing it is, and others say wait you didn't double your account in a month. So for me that is not the path I want to go down.

So I talk in generals with numbers, having realistic expectations, learning to trade right and let the other pieces fall into place. Everyone has different tolerances for drawdown/risk/expectations.

Hope that helps
mike
  • #98,345
  • Jul 13, 2011 11:34am Jul 13, 2011 11:34am
Ok thanks Mike. I ask because I have some mixed results for NFP days, but my record is only for very short period.
Guess for now, just going to watch out during NFP day.
  • #98,346
  • Jul 13, 2011 11:49am Jul 13, 2011 11:49am
Quoting thermobee
I am relatively new to trading (about a year) and I find it very easy to motivate myself, learn more and just in general educate myself when things are going great with my trades. The exact opposite is true when trades are not going my way and I have trouble even looking at charts. Can anyone recommend a thread or perhaps a book that deals with the psychology of trading and how I can become a little better at not letting the trades affect me? It would be greatly appreciated.
"Trading in the zone" by Mark Douglas
  • #98,347
  • Jul 13, 2011 12:02pm Jul 13, 2011 12:02pm
Quoting Greenhaze
"Trading in the zone" by Mark Douglas
Thanks mate. Will check it out for sure!
  • #98,348
  • Jul 13, 2011 12:55pm Jul 13, 2011 12:55pm
Quoting ddinnov
Do you have a watch list? I like to update mine on the weekend when going over weekly charts then during the week I look mainly at the levels and pairs that are on my list.

KInd of like waiting for setups to form at certain areas instead of spotting bars and then 'looking for confluence'.
Thx, i'll try that
  • #98,349
  • Jul 13, 2011 1:12pm Jul 13, 2011 1:12pm
Quoting thermobee
I am relatively new to trading (about a year) and I find it very easy to motivate myself, learn more and just in general educate myself when things are going great with my trades. The exact opposite is true when trades are not going my way and I have trouble even looking at charts. Can anyone recommend a thread or perhaps a book that deals with the psychology of trading and how I can become a little better at not letting the trades affect me? It would be greatly appreciated.
you actively screw up your trades? or just being stressed? Obviously, the difference is relevant

Everyone says you should be calm and etc, but frankly every time I see red I'm stressed(and contrary to majority's opinion, I consider this a sign of mental sanity). That being said, I manage to stick to my preplan and if I change stuff, usually I'm perfectly cool headed and generally with correct decisions(I happen to screw up valid trades, but rarely due to stress, mostly due to plain making the wrong assumption because... well, because I think something held less/more relevance then it does in reality).

but I see less ppl. and try to warn them I'm not in the greatest mood when having serious unclosed loss(when it's closed, beside trying to figure out what I did wrong, I don't really care).

Since we were talking about % - last week made an excellent %. It was probably one of the best weeks I ever had. I'm happy; ok... not exuberant, but definitely filling good. When I lose, I'm pissed...

Money aside(though they obviously matter, in the end, that's my job), I like when I'm right and I don't like being wrong and I don't see why it should be otherwise... When I read about ppl. who said money don't matter so much, it's a way to keep the score, I thought it's bs. But to a point, it's true - I don't like being wrong(actually, I really have an issue with myself when I am). And, dunno, that I think helped me strive to improve, so wouldn't want to remove it(though the feeling is nasty).
  • #98,350
  • Jul 13, 2011 1:31pm Jul 13, 2011 1:31pm
He is talking about a daytrading or even a high volume swing trading approach and he is dead on. This very fact is what forced me to learn a different way long ago. I gauruntee you can hit those levels trading the way we do. It really comes back to account size and its ability to allow you to accomplish your dreams with just a few trades a month.

jim

Quoting esbatu
Hi guys, I am a long time follower of this thread, but seldom post.

But after reading Adillius recent post about articles by Austin Passamonte really raise some questions, particularly this following statement:

[b]"You cannot and absolutely will not create lasting, sustained success from a core foundation where average losses in relative $ size exceed average wins. You cannot sustain a win rate of +70%, +80% or +90% of your trades over a long period of time. It is a statistical impossibility that no one has ever accomplished, and no one ever...
  • #98,351
  • Jul 13, 2011 1:35pm Jul 13, 2011 1:35pm
Quoting james16
He is talking about a daytrading or even a high volume swing trading approach and he is dead on. This very fact is what forced me to learn a different way long ago. I gauruntee you can hit those levels trading the way we do. It really comes back to account size and its ability to allow you to accomplish your dreams with just a few trades a month.

jim
Thanks James, your words keep me going!
  • #98,352
  • Jul 13, 2011 1:44pm Jul 13, 2011 1:44pm
charts

Quoting james16
not really a beginner trade but the reality is its an easy thing to learn.

stack the odds in your favor, pull the trigger and be prepared to take some profit and move your stop to breakeven when you know its time.

could someone hang on here and wait for a bigger move? sure they could but since i know there are more coming and a "runner" will eventually happen my personal thought process is to refuse to lose.

This could still be a runner with my remaining position but one thing is certain.

i cant lose. ive removed that possibility.
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  • #98,353
  • Jul 13, 2011 2:06pm Jul 13, 2011 2:06pm
jim explain how the math is different for your approach?

averages work on all time frames and in all kinds of trading.


Quoting james16
He is talking about a daytrading or even a high volume swing trading approach and he is dead on. This very fact is what forced me to learn a different way long ago. I gauruntee you can hit those levels trading the way we do. It really comes back to account size and its ability to allow you to accomplish your dreams with just a few trades a month.

jim
  • #98,354
  • Jul 13, 2011 2:19pm Jul 13, 2011 2:19pm
Hello again, people.

I've been reaching home by 11pm at night after work and trying to find time to sift through this large thread to learn. It is taking quite a bit of time, and before I know it it's 3am. I have seen the preview of the james16 group members' area video and I love the simplicity of it where everything is organized. I would love to learn those materials that has little/no noise.

To join the group, do we have another method of payment other than visa and mastercard? I have none of those (just graduated and I am rather conservative about owning a credit card).

Is it wise to join the group to learn the materials or should I have reached a certain level of understanding before joining the group? I ask this because although I have a rough idea, I do not know precisely what is PPZ and how to define it, or Fib Ret and how do I put them on the chart properly. Would it be explained there, or is this expected of me before I join?

Thanks in advance.
  • #98,355
  • Jul 13, 2011 2:24pm Jul 13, 2011 2:24pm
Quoting Razorman
jim explain how the math is different for your approach?

averages work on all time frames and in all kinds of trading.
I think the point is being missed here. And I also think the quote is out of context too.

mini rant just in general not even at Razor

If you have a high win rate the likelihood is the following
-small winners
-breakevens
-occasional runner


How is that possible? You don't mess around you get your stops to b/e . You hawk First trouble areas. You don't sit and hope and pray.

Trading is all about trade offs. EVERY single thing you do has a trade off. Every single thing. From entries, to stops, to management. It's a see-saw effect with this stuff.

Why is it possible that people can have high Rmultiples and low win rates and be successful and the opposite isn't the case. That's just pure common sense. If one can work why can't the other? I don't even see how that point can be argued but alas.

I am confused as to why people can't accept that as being a plausible way to trade. Who cares if your avg R:R comes out low? Is that what matters? Or is it making money?

I was on a hit rate of around mid 60% a few years ago. I was targetting larger R:R./ My variance was much higher. I had more consecutive losses. I re did every single trade with FULL take profit at the very FTA. My win% went just above 90%. What was the trade off? My profit factor went down 3fold(with the same risk per trade used as my real trading).

What did this teach me? A heck of a lot. It taught me about my variance tolerances, about my risk tolerances. Over those years my trading has shaped to a higher win rate, a less reward on a PER trade basis. The bottom line is? I have no clue what my R:R is as a whole anymore( I ahve a general idea),. but I don't even care anymore. All I care about is a great opportuntity and putting myself in a good position.

Granted I trade different then James and maybe as my account grows I will change even more( i have thus far). I have a much higher winrate then a few years ago, but that doesn't even tell the story. I take a lot of 1/4 and 1/2 bar losses and smaller. So add those to the losing column and it tells what?

If I make X% a month. I don't care if I did it with ten trades with super tiny winners and no losses. Or I do it with 3 trades with larger winners. In the end I run a combo of the above. Some months I have large R:R other months I literally just stab at the market with tiny wins.

I think everyone thinks it's all or none. You either win X, or you lose Y.

Again is this my opinion , it sure is.

Hopefully it helps someone out there though. I know this is my opinion and I RESPECT everyone else's way of doing it. At the end of the day it matters if it works for you, however you get there. But those that are struggling, just think about some of this. You must prove all this to yourself anyway, no matter who's mouth it comes out of. That means demo, that means being smart. Then you can trust YOURSELF, and the rest doesn't matter .

Take care

Mike
  • #98,356
  • Jul 13, 2011 2:31pm Jul 13, 2011 2:31pm
Mike, how many of your trades are full bar losses?

if you are taking half and quarter bar losses then that is a whole different story.

what u described sounds very differently from what is being taught when placing the stop behind the pin or outside bar. that changes the whole picture.
  • #98,357
  • Jul 13, 2011 2:36pm Jul 13, 2011 2:36pm
Quoting Razorman
mike how many of your trades are full bar losses?

if you are taking half and quarter bar losses then that is a whole different story.

what u described sounds very differently from what is being taught when placing the stop behind the pin or outside bar. that changes the whole picture.
Hey Razor

Not very many, one or two a month I would say maybe out of 10-12 trades.

Just cause I start with my stop above/below a bar doesn't mean I leave it there. In fact most times I move it up very quickly.

Many people ask why not just start with a higher/lower stop. I do that specifically so I can reduce my risk on that trade, which in turn gives an effective higher reward as a whole.

Example. Usd/jpy trade I posted here

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...05#post4769605

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...15#post4772615

Notice that trade was barely under way, but I already moved my stop down half the bar above the bar high/ppz. This cut half my risk off the bat right away.

Others might just start with their stop there to get a higher position size.

Again for me the main point is the trade offs. Everyone has different tolerances. I like the ability to work my risk in that way. It's comfortable for me. I might be losing reward potential(I am) but I still prefer it.

You are correct, about the picture. I think that's the problem I have with talking about numbers, is that it never tells the whole story of a trader.

Thanks for bringing that up
Mike
  • #98,358
  • Jul 13, 2011 2:40pm Jul 13, 2011 2:40pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Razor

Not very many, one or two a month I would say maybe out of 10-12 trades.

Just cause I start with my stop above/below a bar doesn't mean I leave it there. In fact most times I move it up very quickly.

Many people ask why not just start with a higher/lower stop. I do that specifically so I can reduce my risk on that trade, which in turn gives an effective higher reward as a whole.

Example. Usd/jpy trade I posted here

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...05#post4769605

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...15#post4772615

Notice...

another example I am currently in. Similar case to usd/jpy and a lot of things for me. I move my stops pretty quick(again depends on the type of trade and it's never a one size fits all). So now here is a case where i have very minimal risk on the table. So where is my effective R:R? Hence why I hate talking about specifics and more about concepts and techniques.

I think a lot of this is above and beyond the scope of this thread, and this thread is about teaching a good foundation and keeping new traders from the hell of most of what is out there.

Again all my opinion and how I do things, and never a knock on anyone else or what someone else does

Best
Mike
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  • #98,359
  • Jul 13, 2011 2:51pm Jul 13, 2011 2:51pm
Quoting snowly
you actively screw up your trades? or just being stressed? Obviously, the difference is relevant

Everyone says you should be calm and etc, but frankly every time I see red I'm stressed(and contrary to majority's opinion, I consider this a sign of mental sanity). That being said, I manage to stick to my preplan and if I change stuff, usually I'm perfectly cool headed and generally with correct decisions(I happen to screw up valid trades, but rarely due to stress, mostly due to plain making the wrong assumption because... well, because I think...
Kinda in the same boat. It just affects my life outside of trading. Its doesnt really effect my trading, I actually surprise myself how level headed I am after a loss and I can analyze and play a winner immediately after.

I like you dont like to be wrong and I am very critical of myself when I make mistakes that should be avoided. Its a learning process and hopefully we can get better at it, I would just really like it if it didnt effect my life outside of trading and ruin my mood for hours on end.
  • #98,360
  • Jul 13, 2011 3:05pm Jul 13, 2011 3:05pm
Quoting thermobee
I am relatively new to trading (about a year) and I find it very easy to motivate myself, learn more and just in general educate myself when things are going great with my trades. The exact opposite is true when trades are not going my way and I have trouble even looking at charts. Can anyone recommend a thread or perhaps a book that deals with the psychology of trading and how I can become a little better at not letting the trades affect me? It would be greatly appreciated.

My friend that is life... Ha ha I have gotten substantially better at it, but still have some issues with exactly what you are speaking about. The best thing that I have found to help with this is remembering my long term goals and knowing that while today may be a bit rocky, in the long run I will obtain all of my goals. It is actually quite funny because I was running into this issue today. I believe that is why your post is speaking to me so much. Had a few trades that I did WIPG on and they were all winners. Closed out a live trade on USDCHF due to the sideways nature of chart after the BEOB only to have it nosedive down for the last two and was looking at all of the runners today that I am not in. Was overwhelming for a moment, I will not lie. When I was a year or less into it trading it would have been crippling, but with time and practice comes insight. I know that I will continue to get better, but I can truely relate to where you are right now. There were 3 major things that helped me handle days like this with trading. They are:

1) Keep a vision board of your trading. It is nothing more than quotes, photos, and ideas that relate to your goals with trading. Keep evolving the board as your mind more fully sees the goal.

2) Envision the perfect day of trading or where you will be after 10/20/30 years of trading. Just close your eyes and be deep in your thoughts. Envision one of these every single day (hopefully at the beginning of the day). Do whichever vision feels like you should be doing it the most. Do the vision in a place where you can clear your mind and focus intently on your thoughts. Every time you do the vision add some detail that you did not have in it before. Keep it positive and pertaining to being a very successful trader. As you are doing the vision exercise a physical anchor will help to cement it in your subconcious. I hold my thumb and pinky together on my left hand the entire time that I am doing the vision. If I enter a stressful time with trading then I do the physical anchor and it helps to calm and recenter my mind.

3) Write out an affirmation for your trading. Write it out as though that which you are seeking to be is already accomplished. It can be anything from a sentance to a paragraph. Print it out and place it in many locations that you will see it. When you see it, calm your mind and read it with the understanding that you already possess all of these qualities. It should not read as anything other than what you want to see in yourself. It should be about what you want to be as a trader. A small example of part of mine: "I possess all of the qualities of the most successful traders that there have ever existed or will exist. Every day that I trade, I more fully unlock all of the potential that perfectly exists with me. There is no situation I cannot handle and I am wholely capable of translating my knowlege into financial success and mental peace that I know that I deserve." Once you read the affirmation I always follow this up with "I fully accept that which I just said and I know it to be true. I release this to truth"

I have found that by doing these three items I have evolved greatly as a trader (though it can be applied to anything you wish to accomplish). If at first it seems far fetched don't completely discount them. I was very sceptical at first being a very analytic personality, but slowly as my mind evolved I was better able to wrap my mind around what was happening. One day I looked around and realized all of the small steps my mind had taken had translated into large paradigm shifts. Slowly and without even fully realizing it my mind had evolved. I hope that this may help.

Ryan
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