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Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected

  • #7,341
  • Jul 11, 2011 6:50am Jul 11, 2011 6:50am
Quoting eyevoltage
Got your eye in this morning, pg...... Well done!
ty, ev.
  • #7,342
  • Jul 11, 2011 11:01pm Jul 11, 2011 11:01pm
a nice ride during asian session continuing yest's momentum.
a bear flag b/o below day's open (thick magenta line), 4025 and ma zone:

entry: 1.4010
exit1: 1.3987 (near yest's low -- magenta dashed line)
exit2: 1.3950 (green dash_dot line)

ev,

was there a possible earlier entry at 4024 below the marked bearish harami, day's open and 4025?
Attached Image
  • #7,343
  • Jul 11, 2011 11:51pm Jul 11, 2011 11:51pm
another bear flag b/o:

entry 3949
exit1 3925
s/l 3939 (above S1 and last LH)

edit:

bal. stopped out at 3939.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20110712-02-eu.gif Size: 31 KB
  • #7,344
  • Jul 12, 2011 12:04am Jul 12, 2011 12:04am
Quoting pgd
a nice ride during asian session continuing yest's momentum.
a bear flag b/o below day's open (thick magenta line), 4025 and ma zone:

entry: 1.4010
exit1: 1.3987 (near yest's low -- magenta dashed line)
exit2: 1.3950 (green dash_dot line)

ev,

was there a possible earlier entry at 4024 below the marked bearish harami, day's open and 4025?
Yes, of course you could have entered as price left the MA zone after the harami, but then you'd have still been inside the flag. I guess it's a choice of using the flag and playing the break-out, or doing without the flag altogether and playing the candle pattern for a few more pips. Personally, I'd have stuck with the flag.
  • #7,345
  • Jul 12, 2011 12:30am Jul 12, 2011 12:30am
I missed this one due to other duties. A rising wedge pattern right across S1 into the MA zone, and then price dropped out of sight!! Makes one wonder how much further EU is going before it disappears off the horizon completely!
Attached Image
  • #7,346
  • Jul 12, 2011 12:46am Jul 12, 2011 12:46am
Quoting eyevoltage
Yes, of course you could have entered as price left the MA zone after the harami, but then you'd have still been inside the flag. I guess it's a choice of using the flag and playing the break-out, or doing without the flag altogether and playing the candle pattern for a few more pips. Personally, I'd have stuck with the flag.
ev,

thanks.
  • #7,347
  • Jul 12, 2011 12:51am Jul 12, 2011 12:51am
Quoting eyevoltage
I missed this one due to other duties. A rising wedge pattern right across S1 into the MA zone, and then price dropped out of sight!! Makes one wonder how much further EU is going before it disappears off the horizon completely!
ev,

nice one!

it came up soon after i was stopped out in the previous trade.
but, i hesitated in case there was a LO reversal coming up.
  • #7,348
  • Jul 13, 2011 1:37am Jul 13, 2011 1:37am
2 flag b/o's

1] entry and exit as shown.
2] entry as shown; s/l moved to 1.0663 (below R1, last dip)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20110713-01-au.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #7,349
  • Jul 13, 2011 1:53am Jul 13, 2011 1:53am
Quoting pgd
2 flag b/o's

1] entry and exit as shown.
2] entry as shown; s/l moved to 1.0663 (below R1, last dip)
Nice one pg, I missed out this am.
  • #7,350
  • Jul 13, 2011 2:53am Jul 13, 2011 2:53am
Quoting pgd
2 flag b/o's

1] entry and exit as shown.
2] entry as shown; s/l moved to 1.0663 (below R1, last dip)
Nice trades, mate.

Seeing as, like me, you're a fan of flag patterns, maybe you'd be interested in checking out this thread:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=280673

Some very interesting reading, pg, as Vantage will confirm!

Cheers
  • #7,351
  • Jul 13, 2011 3:19am Jul 13, 2011 3:19am
Hi guys

I know I only pop in to post very rarely, but I do read the thread most days, and I know that you chaps are about the most quietly knowlegeable around, hence my post today.

I have got myself into a mental cul-de-sac and I really need some help to get myself out of it. I think it is a classic case of trying to use too much information which then results in basic paralysis by analysis.

I have tried to restrict my reading on FF to the more sensible threads - this one, Vantage's, Divergence, Redsword etc. But now I look at a chart on a morning, and just blank. Should I keep referring to higher t/f trends? Should I buy an engulfing candle off a pivot despite seeing no HH/HL. Do I wait for a trend to establish itself and then trade the pullback? Do I wait for a higher t/f supply/demand level to be hit? And I do nothing.

I don't really know what I am asking for here, maybe just a kind person to help me put some structure into my thinking.

On my charts I have ordinary pivots, a 9 and 20EMA.

If anyone is around, I would be grateful for some advice.

Alex
  • #7,352
  • Jul 13, 2011 3:32am Jul 13, 2011 3:32am
Quoting eyevoltage
Nice trades, mate.

Seeing as, like me, you're a fan of flag patterns, maybe you'd be interested in checking out this thread:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=280673

Some very interesting reading, pg, as Vantage will confirm!

Cheers
thanks, ev.

i've read that thread in parts earlier on.
will surely do a re-read.

incidentally, whether it's a flag or a wedge or a triangle, the critical line for the b/o is the counter-trend line. i used to draw just that earlier on.

thanks again.
  • #7,353
  • Jul 13, 2011 3:43am Jul 13, 2011 3:43am
Quoting Delite
Hi guys

I know I only pop in to post very rarely, but I do read the thread most days, and I know that you chaps are about the most quietly knowlegeable around, hence my post today.

I have got myself into a mental cul-de-sac and I really need some help to get myself out of it. I think it is a classic case of trying to use too much information which then results in basic paralysis by analysis.

I have tried to restrict my reading on FF to the more sensible threads - this one, Vantage's, Divergence, Redsword etc. But now I look at a chart on...
Sounds to me like you're suffering from a bad case of "information overload", mate. So much so, you're now trying (whether you're aware of it or not) to combine all the different methods into one SUPER method!!

Won't work, mate. You need to streamline a little and pick and choose what you REALLY want on your chart. You say you have pivot points and 2 EMA's. Well, IMHO, you have enough there to trade successfully!

It really all boils down to choosing a method and sticking to it. Stay with acumen's method. Try Vantage's method. Have a go with Divergence's method. Give them a go and then pick your favourite and go with it.

Honestly, I believe that the more information you get from each thread is more likely to freeze you into NOT trading, rather than making you more efficient.

Just my two pennorth, mate, but I hope it helps.
  • #7,354
  • Jul 13, 2011 3:51am Jul 13, 2011 3:51am
Quoting Delite
Hi guys

I know I only pop in to post very rarely, but I do read the thread most days, and I know that you chaps are about the most quietly knowlegeable around, hence my post today.

I have got myself into a mental cul-de-sac and I really need some help to get myself out of it. I think it is a classic case of trying to use too much information which then results in basic paralysis by analysis.

I have tried to restrict my reading on FF to the more sensible threads - this one, Vantage's, Divergence, Redsword etc. But now I look at a chart on...
Do yourself a big favour. Write yourself a detailed trading plan be it one from a thread or one you have devised. Either way look back at the charts and ask yourself what is the edge and what is the logic of this method? You need to consider whether there is a well defined risk reward per trade ratio within the method (google expectancy - Van Tharp). Make the method completely rule based, leave out any discretion (you will develop discretion with experience). Above all develop discipline with this one method, stick to the rules at all costs (read Trading in the zone, M Douglas).
  • #7,355
  • Jul 13, 2011 4:05am Jul 13, 2011 4:05am
Quoting Delite
Hi guys

I know I only pop in to post very rarely, but I do read the thread most days, and I know that you chaps are about the most quietly knowlegeable around, hence my post today.

I have got myself into a mental cul-de-sac and I really need some help to get myself out of it. I think it is a classic case of trying to use too much information which then results in basic paralysis by analysis.

I have tried to restrict my reading on FF to the more sensible threads - this one, Vantage's, Divergence, Redsword etc. But now I look at a chart on...
The toughest of questions, my 2c worth.

There is nothing wrong with trading a couple of set ups, unless that of course is leading to confusion. If you are unclear write down your trade rules for each set up.

Using 9 and 20 ema's, trading a lh/hl/flag/2b/evening/morning star pattern where you have good ma angle and separation becomes a totally different animal trading those patterns at turn points when ma's are not agreeing. So you'd need clear rules for trading the 2 scenarios. Not saying thats your problem just trying to give an example.

If you are still confused then trading 1 set up until your confidence returns might be a good idea, as would demo trading until you have things right. Going back checking chosen method works in up trend, sideways and down markets to give you confidence another good idea. I will always remember the story from Vic Noble (London close guy) that said 1 of the traders he coached only traded GU macd divergence from 4hr chart (if I recall correctly) taking a few trades per month with 50 full lots at a time and was remarkable successful. There is nothing wrong then with trading 1 set up that fits your personality (trading wise) ie how many trades do you need, hate 4hr charts or hate 5 min charts etc etc etc.

You need to develop a trading plan that you can confidently look at a set up and say I'd do x, y, z in that scenario. Be happy that you can differentiate between a trade that fits your rules and a random price movement that doesn't. It does not matter if the random price movement goes the way you thought. It matters if you can repeat it. Its human nature to remember the 1 random price movement that goes your way and forget the 5 that didn't.

Personally mtf is a vital aspect. Its up to you to decide what that is. There are a myriad of options to go for. It can be as easy as good angle + separation of ma's on a tf pick one, 1hr, 4hr etc etc. Or 3 tf's indi's agreeing. Steve Hopwood has a standard above/below D rsi as a standard filter.

Have rules about what you say is trend or counter trend. I'm still kicking myself, Y Mrs V called a eur buy after the 1hr pos close in terms of normal hl rules but it was running against the 4hr. I only later looked to see the bounce was from the Jan highs such an obvious place for a turn after a 700 odd pip move down.

Having said all that its going to come down to what do you think will work for you and your circumstances. Try and think about what concepts you feel comfortable with. Put those together and put in the chart time to see if you are onto a winner. If not reject and start again.

If the familiar is not working try something radical, a complete change. 5 min hl/lh's not working try trading from 1hr chart in line with D trend. Or identify which hl/lh trades not working? Are you getting in on 3rd hl/lh in run missing out on 1st two on a counter trend day and scratching your head wondering why things are not working. Again not saying this is the problem just throwing out an example.

Hope this will help in some way.
  • #7,356
  • Jul 13, 2011 4:12am Jul 13, 2011 4:12am
Quoting Vantage
The toughest of questions, my 2c worth.
Darn EV and Porkpie managed to say all that a hell of a lot shorter!!! The sentiments are the same though.
  • #7,357
  • Jul 13, 2011 4:25am Jul 13, 2011 4:25am
Ev, PP and V - thank you so much, especially Vantage for making me smile with his second post!

EV - yes, I think you are right. I am trying to use every technique as backup/safety net for all of the others ie if I use them all, then I will have mega-super-duper confirmation. I need to boil things down into a more simple plan. I have done this before, and then come onto FF and start reading/researching other things and well, we all know where that leads - tweaks here and there and ultimately madness!

Mr Pie - yes, again, you are right. I need to make a strict set of rules to work to. The discretionary part of the decision making is a killer - inevitably you leave the winners and jump on the losers. With good money management you should take them all and it will work in your favour.

V - Hello, and hope all is well with you. Hopefully life maybe starting to return to some normality after your loss. Many sensible words from you, thanks. I think I need to untrain my brain from early days, to be honest. I am hesitant about taking trade around market opens, because in my early (naive) days I remember them as being erratic. I don't see the moves as erratic any longer, but can't seem to lose that message in my brain.

Much for me to look at, and I really, really appreciate your time.

Have a good afternoon gentlemen.
  • #7,358
  • Jul 13, 2011 9:01am Jul 13, 2011 9:01am
Nice breakout from a bull flag on eur/usd.

Entry - 1.4098

Exit - 1.4155. (easily made it to daily R2 pivot, but i got too scared too hold it that long!)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_bull_flag_12.07.png Size: 35 KB
  • #7,359
  • Edited 11:07am Jul 13, 2011 9:35am | Edited 11:07am
Quoting Delite
Hi guys

I know I only pop in to post very rarely, but I do read the thread most days, and I know that you chaps are about the most quietly knowlegeable around, hence my post today.

I have got myself into a mental cul-de-sac and I really need some help to get myself out of it. I think it is a classic case of trying to use too much information which then results in basic paralysis by analysis.

I have tried to restrict my reading on FF to the more sensible threads - this one, Vantage's, Divergence, Redsword etc. But now I look at a chart...
Alex,

Adding some suggestions to those of evevoltage, porkpie and Vantage:

1] please go back to demo while you sort out the issues you are facing and choose a low equity like 2000-3000.

2] stick with demo till you are not totally satisfied with the performance.

3] treat the demo a/c like a live one. DON'T put any non-system trades.

4] work on only one system at a time and stop reading on other systems while you do that.

5] remove everything from the chart that doesn't relate to the system in work.

here's a little tool -- a checklist-cum-log -- that will help keep the discretionary urge at bay and build a history of what works and what doesn't. please feel free to tweak it to your requirement.

good luck to you, brother.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Trade Checklist.xls   26 KB | 514 downloads
  • #7,360
  • Jul 13, 2011 9:43am Jul 13, 2011 9:43am
Quoting faizal82
Nice breakout from a bull flag on eur/usd.

Entry - 1.4098

Exit - 1.4155. (easily made it to daily R2 pivot, but i got too scared too hold it that long!)
good one faizal!
nice and stress free.

how do you put those bold red arrows on your charts?
i don't see any such tool in mt4 or paint.
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