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  • #401
  • Jul 5, 2011 3:22pm Jul 5, 2011 3:22pm
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
LJ, I will try to learn to incorperate these event plans into my trading activity. I noticed there are some trading rules about it, just not yet finetune upto the level you grasped. thanks for pointing this out.

Regarding trading plan, to be honest, I am just too much focused on entry point and SL, and leave other trading elements open, based on my understanding that the market is too wild to be planned, so, I really didn't have an agenda to fit FTA and first target profit into my trading yet. I think this might be my next step to improve, though not yet fully convinced, I will register a journal to evaluate, just as you adviced to do the due dilligence for traders themselves. thanks a ton for bringing the true challenge on the spot, espacially on my case

Krue

Quoting lovejoy80
I always, at the beginning of each day look at the FF calender to see if there are any news events or bank holidays that are likely to affect the trading day as a whole or certain events (like NFP or ECB interest rate announcement) where I dont want to be opening new trades and will want to take appropriate action with any existing trades etc.

I'm not going to tell you what I do straight-off, I'd rather you tell me what your current process is when you plan a trade or are in a trade...and how you identify problems areas and FTA's for your trades....
  • #402
  • Jul 5, 2011 3:24pm Jul 5, 2011 3:24pm
Quoting krue
LJ, the ppz at fib 50 seems not a strong level, the large bullish bar is another concern to me, and comparing to other jpy pair, chfjpy seems the most bullish one, which might not back up strongly a short trade?? this is how I interpret the price action message, not sure if these factors make any sense , just trying to understand how you evaluate the ppz quality, and does a large bullish bar as such lead you think twice before fading it ? I am responding in hindsight though, I had these questions in mind just wanting to appreciate your thinking...
a quick chart with some comments...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chfjpy.png Size: 62 KB
  • #403
  • Jul 5, 2011 3:47pm Jul 5, 2011 3:47pm
Quoting krue
LJ, I will try to learn to incorperate these event plans into my trading activity. I noticed there are some trading rules about it, just not yet finetune upto the level you grasped. thanks for pointing this out.

Regarding trading plan, to be honest, I am just too much focused on entry point and SL, and leave other trading elements open, based on my understanding that the market is too wild to be planned, so, I really didn't have an agenda to fit FTA and first target profit into my trading yet. I think this might be my next step to improve, though...
I'm sure you will learn over time for yourself that trade management and exits are much more important than entries (money management is of course very important too), but a really good trader could use a flip of a coin for their entry and still make money. You will always have losses in trading it's part of the cost of this busines, it's how you manage your exits which really determines how much you regualarly return.

If you can plan your entries then why would the market be too wild to plan your exits? I plan every decision I make and never leave anything to chance and I'm sure other good traders dont believe the market is to wild or random to plan their exits.

I think a journal is a good idea, it worked wonders for me and really made me realise what I was doing wrong...it's easy to get blinded when evaluating yourself based on memories, but much easier to see the real turth when its down on paper.
  • #404
  • Jul 5, 2011 7:33pm Jul 5, 2011 7:33pm
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
great strategy in terms of SL placement and bar interpretation. the later confirms a good saying that most great traders have been repeating again and again, that is the more scary situation usually present the better lucrative opportunity, now it is confirmed directly from a person I am talking with, this is so good

regarding the quality of the ppz, I am still not very convinced yet, coz it's washed off more than once in recent occassion. this probably is not quite a good reason, it can be interpreted in opposite meaning, but, I am not very comfortable with this line ,yeah, silly me maybe



Quoting lovejoy80
a quick chart with some comments...
  • #405
  • Edited 7:51pm Jul 5, 2011 7:37pm | Edited 7:51pm
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
I see the light now, LJ, thanks a lot, it is so good to practise with you and can share your good experience.

I've entered short GBPCHF. simply could not plan my exit for the moment
here is the chart



Quoting lovejoy80
I'm sure you will learn over time for yourself that trade management and exits are much more important than entries (money management is of course very important too), but a really good trader could use a flip of a coin for their entry and still make money. You will always have losses in trading it's part of the cost of this busines, it's how you manage your exits which really determines how much you regualarly return.

If you can plan your entries then why would the market be too wild to plan your exits? I plan every decision I make and never...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbochf.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #406
  • Jul 6, 2011 9:47am Jul 6, 2011 9:47am
Hey guys, I just wanted to see if anyone played any of these trades, passed on them, or are saying "what are you talking about T.J., those are horrible locations".

I picked out a few locations yesterday where I thought a bounce was likely. I then studied the charts more and realized there just wasn't a strong enough S/R line at these locations for me to take the trade, so I passed on them. On all of these trades, I would have gotten 1R, then stopped out on the remainder. So I would have made a little money, but that doesn't mean they would have been good trades.

The locations I was looking to get in was...

GBPCHF - Long @ 1.3440
EURUSD - Long @ 1.4300

I was then thinking to go short the GBPCHF when the bounce at 1.3440 didn't hold up and go short with the break of this S/R flip.

In your opinions were these good areas to look for trades (good enough S/R zones) (they just were not in my opinion, but I might need to loosen up), and are there times you look for a bounce of a S/R and the trade goes flat then right back to the S/R so you then reverse your original trade idea and go in the opposite direction expecting a decent break through S/R?

Thanks for all your input.

T.J.
  • #407
  • Jul 6, 2011 10:36am Jul 6, 2011 10:36am
Quoting unlv_tj
Hey guys, I just wanted to see if anyone played any of these trades, passed on them, or are saying "what are you talking about T.J., those are horrible locations".

I picked out a few locations yesterday where I thought a bounce was likely. I then studied the charts more and realized there just wasn't a strong enough S/R line at these locations for me to take the trade, so I passed on them. On all of these trades, I would have gotten 1R, then stopped out on the remainder. So I would have made a little money, but that doesn't mean they would...
On EU this whole area is a key area for me. It's also the last line of support protecting the weekly BUOB too IMO and thus if this setup is to work out I'd expect a bounce from here. It's quite a wide area and given the heightened volatility on this pair since Moody's downgrad of Portugal yesterday wide-ish stops were prudent. I actually took 2 trades one more aggressive with a smaller SL @ 1.4290 which got stopped out and one with a SL below the spike marked with the arrow in the chart.

I cancelled my GCHF order when price came very close to this area first time around and missed my entry...price went on to hit what would have been my FTA so I rarely take it when price comes back again.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #408
  • Jul 6, 2011 10:40am Jul 6, 2011 10:40am
Mark,

Thank you very much. I am in the confidence building stage and I just could not decide on these trades. The areas looked good, but I wasn't comfortable so I stayed out.

This is definetly a confidence booster.

T.J.
  • #409
  • Jul 6, 2011 6:09pm Jul 6, 2011 6:09pm
Quoting krue
I see the light now, LJ, thanks a lot, it is so good to practise with you and can share your good experience.

I've entered short GBPCHF. simply could not plan my exit for the moment
here is the chart
What did you end up doing with this trade...presume the entry was the daily pin?
  • #410
  • Jul 6, 2011 8:17pm Jul 6, 2011 8:17pm
not exactly, LJ, copied your method on lower tf, it's a 61 ret. you know the tiny pa doesn't work mentality, it works sometimes though.

the trade was existed at 1.34220, entry 1.36, sl 1.3655, so a 3.2R trade , not as good as most of yours



Quoting lovejoy80
What did you end up doing with this trade...presume the entry was the daily pin?
  • #411
  • Jul 6, 2011 9:01pm Jul 6, 2011 9:01pm
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
he seems correct ... ...
  • #412
  • Jul 6, 2011 9:04pm Jul 6, 2011 9:04pm
  • #413
  • Jul 6, 2011 10:17pm Jul 6, 2011 10:17pm
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
  • #414
  • Jul 6, 2011 10:35pm Jul 6, 2011 10:35pm
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
what's the thinking on eurgbp? the initial one was not triggered, then, added one minor position to see how it might evolve. any thought, pros & cons? I am not very comfortable with this one, just wanted to do it mechanically. what's your opinion, LJ and or jlr?



Krue
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #415
  • Jul 7, 2011 9:20am Jul 7, 2011 9:20am
Very nice pop short (quick burst) on the CHF pairs. Maybe this will signify that the long term strength in the CHF will disapate, at least for a while.

Then the USDCAD fell again. I really expected this pair to get back to around .9740 before falling. It went without me.
  • #416
  • Jul 7, 2011 9:31am Jul 7, 2011 9:31am
Quoting unlv_tj
Very nice pop short (quick burst) on the CHF pairs. Maybe this will signify that the long term strength in the CHF will disapate, at least for a while.

Then the USDCAD fell again. I really expected this pair to get back to around .9740 before falling. It went without me.
There were signs last week of this occuring (before the half year flows) and it is still looking relatively weak...if risk aversion events can stay away then the CHF will continue to weaken IMO.

Why there, my view is that we had a weekly BEOB and this was the perfect retrace entry...a line in the sand area for me, if it had closed above it then it was liekly heading back towards 0.98.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #417
  • Jul 7, 2011 9:41am Jul 7, 2011 9:41am
Quoting krue
what's the thinking on eurgbp? the initial one was not triggered, then, added one minor position to see how it might evolve. any thought, pros & cons? I am not very comfortable with this one, just wanted to do it mechanically. what's your opinion, LJ and or jlr?



Krue
The 0.89 area looked to be a better confluenced area to me to go long.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #418
  • Jul 7, 2011 12:40pm Jul 7, 2011 12:40pm
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
thanks, LJ, simply could not see the ppz clearly to me on daily.

I had several lossing trades in the row today, the problem, I guess, comes from moving down to lower tf, lost big picture, too bad. how come in hindsight, one always can find 61/50, even with fib along, can do high hit rate with good precision, while in real time trading, so easy to lost direction and get into the wrong side of the move? I am just wondering what was wrong, do you have the solution?


Krue

Quoting lovejoy80
The 0.89 area looked to be a better confluenced area to me to go long.
  • #419
  • Jul 7, 2011 12:49pm Jul 7, 2011 12:49pm
Mark, thank you so much. I had the .9740 level on the USDCAD marked because it was a 50 Fib area, and a decent broken trendline. But I didn't even notice the BEOB on the Weekly and overlooked the great S/R flip zone you pointed out.

Ugh, I over looked this one, so much work to still do.

Thank you!

T.J.
  • #420
  • Jul 7, 2011 4:59pm Jul 7, 2011 4:59pm
Quoting krue
thanks, LJ, simply could not see the ppz clearly to me on daily.

I had several lossing trades in the row today, the problem, I guess, comes from moving down to lower tf, lost big picture, too bad. how come in hindsight, one always can find 61/50, even with fib along, can do high hit rate with good precision, while in real time trading, so easy to lost direction and get into the wrong side of the move? I am just wondering what was wrong, do you have the solution?


Krue
I'm not 100% sure what you mean but I think you're saying why is it so easy to see things in hindsight but not spot them in real time...if so then IMO it's down to having a proper routines in terms of identifying areas and checking charts periodically, experience, confidence and keeping it simple and just interpreting what is in front of you. It's not something that can be achieved overnight, it takes dedication and practice.
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