0400-0700 GMT Breakout Strategy

i have a backtest available for anyone who wants to test this strategy.lets you set the times, buffer, tp and sl. i did it for my dissertation, it works. If anyone is interested pm me

hi lebo

can u put your backtest result on the form for all to view and comment rather than pm ing you

i have not been following this for a while so would be interested in seeing your backtest

thanks

I have been tried this system for 1 month (November 2010) but it loss almost every day. Does anyone got same result as me ? ,or i do some thing wrong ?

not really since my backtest lets me set up a wide range of parameters. so i can test endless possibilities.i have tested only gbpusd, optimised parameters in terms of p value, profitability, drawback etc....results i got were some 7000 pips in 2007-2010..1600 pips in 2001-2010 for example.i have so many excel sheets, thats why i said raher pm me, give me mail i can send you most of the stuff..posting 3000 rows with results here wud probably get me banned hah

what parameters u using?i found that it is very helpful to not finish at 7am, but 6 45 am, as all the funky stuff starts happening some 10, 5 min before the open

i did everything like the example on the first post but i set pending order 5 pips above and below the highest and lowest point and use TP/SL= 30 pips and close every order after US marker open.

Apologies if this has already been covered in the thread (only just started reading it).

My biggest concern in the implementation of this strategy would be the fact that I've sometimes witnessed a headfake on the London open, any ideas on how to overcome this or guard against it?

"headfake" = false breakout ?

So you may enter the trade only some pips over (for long) or under (for short) the box lines ... this prob is described some times here in the thread.

Hi ledobedo,

I just joined this forum so I can't pm u. I'm very interested in your backrest. How can I get it from u? I dun think I can post my email add here.

Thks!

Yeah the term "headfake" comes from ice hockey where an attacking player with the puck moves his head in one direction to fool the defender but actually goes the other way, so exactly that a false breakout...

So maybe, wait for a retest of the broken support/resistance or use a tight stop until price follows through with the move...

is this still profitable for anyone ? any variations to the original method ?

Hi! This is my first post on FF. I have been putting together a strategy for the GBPUSD pair for some time [1,5 years forex experience, 1 year live trading], using the named time interval as a defining range. The strategy is profitable so far on a live account with Alpari [this is just to confirm that GBPUSD BO is profitable].

What I base my strategy on is the following:
- Breakout happens when candle spike is >=5 pips
- Entered all data into an Excel file from past year [range high/low, the spiking candle's high/low, the highest/lowest pullback into the session area after the spiking candle closed before hitting the target price.
- SL and TP is based on statistically best result for session range categories [20-, 20-25, 25-30 etc]. It is modifiable, but based on % values [to what extent we allow the price to return to the session or run out of the session]
- Use Excel to adjust the SL and TP for each session range category [different % figure for each session range] - No trading in December to mid January, August to mid September [absolutely loser months for this BO trading]
- Result: about 250 pips/month on average for 12 months

The Excel sheet is such that it tells the user the trading parameters, only have to enter at the time of session close. It is simple stupid and works. The SL is partly worked out, because it considers the spiking candle's high/low if it is the highest/lowest level in the session. Although not worked out yet, but SL should be adjusted after the spiking candle closes if there is reason to do so [data is not entered for that yet, so there is no statistical evidence so far].

Once I have rights to open a thread on this, I will attach the Excel files, too, along with the tread and trading results. I am becoming a believer of data entering, and using Excel to suggest on trades and trade parameters.

PS: I have another winning strategy, a breakout-reverse strategy for the EURUSD pair for four sessions. Now, that's a simple stupid tool, too [creating it has taken quite some time and many thoughts though]. I will share once I am allowed to open a thread. That strategy is based on BO candles and their parameters.

Hi,

I can not start a new thread so I connect to this one. Attached is what I mentioned about in my previous post. Sorry for the trial version, but I want to publish the full version on its own thread, once allowed. Anyway, it can be used for 90 days, enough time to make a nice profit [expect about 400 pips/month by the two strategies combined].

All you need to do is the following:

London BO [GBPUSD ONLY] - M15:
1. Make a single setup for 5-8 London BO for GBPUSD [I am GMT + 2 at the moment, 8 o'clock is Frankfurt open]. I use ant-GUBreakout_V.0.4 indy by andee, template and all other things are attached.
2. Open the file, it is an executable, compiled Excel file.
3. Start trading at Frankfurt open. Use BO GBP/USD calculator and place your trades for the day. 1 short, 1 long
4. Do not trade From ~10 August until 30 September and From 1 December to 15 January. Open trades can be left open till closing. I make pending trades expire latest at 24pm.
5. That's all. If you are in doubt, enter past data. Do not enter the past one year, it is profitable.
6. See above what the strategy is based on.


Session BO and Reverse [EURUSD ONLY] - M15:
1. See the setup for BOR [breakout and reverse] strategy on the picture attached [EURUSD] and the templates, [sessions: Asian full from 1am-8am, Asian early 5am-8am, EU 8am-14pm, Big dog 14pm-16pm]
2. Fill trade and candle parameters, after each candle, there is a trade advise: T-trade the candle, NT-no trade, 2+C - two more candles to wait [you will trade those 2 candles combined] - TRADE ONLY AFTER CANDLES CLOSE.
3. The candle spike is minimum 2.5 pips to qualify for a breakout. The 2nd and 3rd candles' position relative to the session range is indifferent.
4. Read and enter trade parameters [make the orders]. You can see the risk reward ratio in the Excel file as well. Although does not look so good, it wins about 7-8 out of 10 times.
5. How to trade: wait until session close and wait for a candle to break it. If the candle does not qualify for a trade, wait for another 2 candles. If a candle spikes through 2 sessions [asian early and full], trade for each of the sessions [trade twice if advised].
6. Trades expire when the next session starts
7. That's all. If you are in doubt, enter past data. Do not enter the past one year, it is profitable.
6. The strategy is based on past data. Trade decisions are made based on session and candle parameters, not only separately but in a combined fashion [examples: how much space there is for a candle to reverse into, what portion of a candle is outside of the session, what are the directions of combined [2nd and 3rd candles] candles [reverse, continuation, mixed], etc]. Do not ask me more details yet. The method is such that I filtered winning combinations of many variables. I can not explain how candles should look like and all. It is statistics only, trade the winners, forget the losers, whatever they look like.

I give this calculator [you will need office 2007 or a plug in to be able to open it] and all updates [will release a version later as a non-executable file] for free because I have learnt from many others for free as well, however, without going into much detail on the whys, I would gladly accept donations if someone is making money with the calculators [well, you will]. It would be a great help to me and it would serve a good cause [I need this temporarily].

About the actual use of these combined methods: I spent about 5 weeks to enter data and analyze it in a way that resulted in the attached calculator. The method proved to be right by looking at back past data and I immediately started trading it live with 1.5-1.75% risk ratio. In 2 weeks time my account was up 17%. So far I have only this short experience but it is truly indifferent, because the method is theoretically well supported.

If in doubt, pm me. I will answer on the forum after receiving several questions. I prefer not to clog any thread by unnecessary amount of characters.

Good luck!

Hi Rewand:

Thanks for the calculator, do you mind explaining a little bit more how it works, What data do I have to enter in each column??

Seems a nice method, but a little bit complex, because you have 4 boxes into your charts.

I have to read several times your last post to be able to understand it properly.


Thanks again for your method.

You have to enter session highs and lows in bid price, then enter the ohcl data of the first candle that breaks out of the session at least 2.5 pips. You will get a T or NT [<2.5 pips] response in the candle advise column. Or you will get a 2+C response, in that case you have to enter the next 2 candles' ohcl data and check the candle advise. If there is T, then trade the order described in the file. The first or the 2nd-3rd candles' order details are in the same column. If there is any more question, just let me know.

Rewand

PS: about the four boxes. These are four sessions. If sessions have the same border and the same candle spikes throught, enter the candle for both session and trade the candle twice.

Per and drawshift value are the same eurusd 11 usdchf 10 gbpusd 21 usdjpy 15 audusd 17 eurgbp 14 eurchf 10

Hi Tasciy,

Are you still trading the GBP/USD breakout now?

I did a manual back testing for the month of June using the two different timing. 02:00 GMT-05:00 GMT and 04:00-07:00 GMT.

Both are marginally profitable only. Is it problem with my perimeter or the market has changed? The result for both time using the Breakout Strategy net less than 100 pip for the whole month.

Anyone have recent trading experience to share on this breakout strategy?

Regards
erelation

Is this system still viable (according to the original rules) and is anyone still trading it? Looking back quickly shows the market may have changed.

Made an EA for this strategy, a bummer unfortunately...
feel free to check using the EA i attached,
adjust the MarketOpenHour setting though for daylight saving time
the EA will track high and low for the last 3 bars i.e 4.00-7.00
this EA TP 30 S/L at the other side of the band
Cheers

Just read this entire thread... phew !

Sounds great.. pity it's died off.


I will give this ago, it was profitable once !