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  • #482,121
  • Jul 6, 2011 7:46pm Jul 6, 2011 7:46pm
Quoting attila
what I see

Attachment
ahh, i was talking about your tp being ambitious, not the fact you were long, was long myself...
  • #482,122
  • Jul 6, 2011 7:47pm Jul 6, 2011 7:47pm
I really like your posts....u obviously have been in the trenches....thanks for the behind the scenes info u provide
Quoting OldQuant
One thing to keep in mind in the hours following a move like just happened: it leaves the dealers and the banks with their currency books out of balance. From a standpoint of their Value at Risk, from their natural triangle arb hedges, their commercials, rebalancing is needed, and we see the result of that order flow as weird chop behavior.
  • #482,123
  • Jul 6, 2011 7:48pm Jul 6, 2011 7:48pm
Quoting OldQuant
One thing to keep in mind in the hours following a move like just happened: it leaves the dealers and the banks with their currency books out of balance. From a standpoint of their Value at Risk, from their natural triangle arb hedges, their commercials, rebalancing is needed, and we see the result of that order flow as weird chop behavior.
thanks oq..

it's only weird if you don't understand it, often it precedes a decent move ahead of session open...
  • #482,124
  • Jul 6, 2011 7:49pm Jul 6, 2011 7:49pm
by the way we just banged our head on 2 50% areas.....50% from the 495xxx high and the latest high......
  • #482,125
  • Jul 6, 2011 7:49pm Jul 6, 2011 7:49pm
Quoting OldQuant
One thing to keep in mind in the hours following a move like just happened: it leaves the dealers and the banks with their currency books out of balance. From a standpoint of their Value at Risk, from their natural triangle arb hedges, their commercials, rebalancing is needed, and we see the result of that order flow as weird chop behavior.
I don't have experience first hand, but talking & various conversation, I was under more of a 'strict' impression that the balance sheets and that whole sum are a completely separate event all in all.

Not arguing at all, if you can elaborate on what you are talking about to clear up my confusion.
I gotta dollar .. I gotta dollar .. I gotta dollar .. HEY HEY HEY HEY
  • #482,126
  • Jul 6, 2011 7:49pm Jul 6, 2011 7:49pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
ahh, i was talking about your tp being ambitious, not the fact you were long, was long myself...
It could be. Possible. It's just the next level up this one we are against right now. I will probably leave it running overnite if it turns out OK.
  • #482,127
  • Jul 6, 2011 7:51pm Jul 6, 2011 7:51pm
Quoting needpips
by the way we just banged our head on 2 50% areas.....50% from the 495xxx high and the latest high......
and m5 200 ema...

right this is a waste of time currently, going to bank some sleep instead, bbml..

good hunting all...
  • #482,128
  • Jul 6, 2011 7:52pm Jul 6, 2011 7:52pm
4338 is well respected resistance now
  • #482,129
  • Jul 6, 2011 8:09pm Jul 6, 2011 8:09pm
Quoting pennies
I don't have experience first hand, but talking & various conversation, I was under more of a 'strict' impression that the balance sheets and that whole sum are a completely separate event all in all.

Not arguing at all, if you can elaborate on what you are talking about to clear up my confusion.
The source of confusion is my using the term "balance." I didn't mean it in the balance sheet sense. Your impression of that is correct, and getting more correct with Dodd Frank; we may yet see certain bank "trading" operations (such as energy derivatives) spun out of commerical banks completely.

Balance sheets are a snapshot, accounting-convention creature. Market value and market risk, on the other hand, are monitored, and managed in real time. When the exchange rates used to value the swaps, forward rate agreements, options, loans, and currency deposits changes, the market exposure - the "risk" - changes, and it has to be adjusted ("rebalanced") by changing the amounts of the major currencies being held in support of those contracts.

Also, the trading desks that provided the liquidity into the downward revaluation probably left many of them longer USD than they want to be or that their risk correlation matrices would allow them to be.

So, in thumbnail, that's where some of the order flow that I called "balancing" comes from.
  • #482,130
  • Jul 6, 2011 8:13pm Jul 6, 2011 8:13pm
Quoting OldQuant
The source of confusion is my using the term "balance." I didn't mean it in the balance sheet sense. Your impression of that is correct, and getting more correct with Dodd Frank; we may yet see certain bank "trading" operations (such as energy derivatives) spun out of commerical banks completely.

Balance sheets are a snapshot, accounting-convention creature. Market value and market risk, on the other hand, are monitored, and managed in real time. When the exchange rates used to value the swaps, forward rate agreements, options, loans,...
Oh just filling the void, fair enough, I completely misinterpreted what was said.

Thanks for the clarity.
I gotta dollar .. I gotta dollar .. I gotta dollar .. HEY HEY HEY HEY
  • #482,131
  • Jul 6, 2011 8:13pm Jul 6, 2011 8:13pm
100 pip TP is what I was going for when I had my 4325....closed it so I could get a better Entry....it took off....one of those lessons learned.....I think u will have a nice run there

Quoting attila
It could be. Possible. It's just the next level up this one we are against right now. I will probably leave it running overnite if it turns out OK.
  • #482,132
  • Jul 6, 2011 8:18pm Jul 6, 2011 8:18pm
Quoting needpips
100 pip TP is what I was going for when I had my 4325....closed it so I could get a better Entry....it took off....one of those lessons learned.....I think u will have a nice run there
I had so many of these lessons.... I don't know, I could give me the run around but I'll hold on it like for dear life. LOL.
  • #482,133
  • Jul 6, 2011 8:25pm Jul 6, 2011 8:25pm
Now that everybody's bored, one of the things on my chart says we'll have a stronger move soon. It would be nice to tell me which way...
  • #482,134
  • Jul 6, 2011 8:28pm Jul 6, 2011 8:28pm
ur chart shows Pin bar formation : so it will move up
  • #482,135
  • Jul 6, 2011 8:28pm Jul 6, 2011 8:28pm
Funny thing....Ive actually started listening to the lessons and more attentively to the rules.....man, Im making more pips...imagine that...LOL...thanks again for all the stuff u post.....Jeez.....


Quoting attila
I had so many of these lessons.... I don't know, I could give me the run around but I'll hold on it like for dear life. LOL.
  • #482,136
  • Jul 6, 2011 8:29pm Jul 6, 2011 8:29pm
fml
  • #482,137
  • Jul 6, 2011 8:31pm Jul 6, 2011 8:31pm
Quoting attila
Now that everybody's bored, one of the things on my chart says we'll have a stronger move soon. It would be nice to tell me which way...
hmmmm. how about that.
  • #482,138
  • Jul 6, 2011 8:33pm Jul 6, 2011 8:33pm
AUD....going strong still...


Quoting attila
hmmmm. how about that.
  • #482,139
  • Jul 6, 2011 8:35pm Jul 6, 2011 8:35pm
if 4339 is breached we should go higher.. make or break time.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #482,140
  • Jul 6, 2011 8:35pm Jul 6, 2011 8:35pm
Not having fun,...
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