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  • #482,101
  • Jul 6, 2011 7:04pm Jul 6, 2011 7:04pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
this could be interesting for you to watch.
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/d...ng_SP_500.html
kicklighter is a pretty good analyst, imo..
  • #482,102
  • Jul 6, 2011 7:04pm Jul 6, 2011 7:04pm
Quoting Mitchoss
are we expecting them to raise the rate, now that qe2 is over?

TBH i think the market has assumed the worst and priced in the posibility of no rise, and if there is a rise, huge rally tomorrow
can't predict the market now...
there has been a lot of talks of rate hike, but that's all us speculating.
who knows what they are really up to. best thing to do is to sit out. wait til the dust to settle and let the price tell us which way it goes.
  • #482,103
  • Jul 6, 2011 7:06pm Jul 6, 2011 7:06pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
current high: 4339.1
res held, no asian open breakout, bailed on my longs...

edit- yet
  • #482,104
  • Jul 6, 2011 7:10pm Jul 6, 2011 7:10pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
res held, no asian open breakout, bailed on my longs...

edit- yet
I just pointed that out, because gator mentioned a touch of 39 might lead to +40 min, BUT oanda screwed up on such a close touch before. you just can't trust them anymore... they've put a bullseye on just any account. with the 39.1 they kept me out of that position and if it plays out, I'll rage-quit.

Quoting FibbinArchie
kicklighter is a pretty good analyst, imo..
he broadens my horizon pretty much. I have problems with his colleagues though, because they contradict each other quite frequently. and as he's the boss...
  • #482,105
  • Jul 6, 2011 7:10pm Jul 6, 2011 7:10pm
Quoting ready2start
Rate rise : EUR up
Rate steady : EUR down
Well, yes. But of course the only certain effect of an interest rate change is in swap rates and forward rates in general (the old interest rate parity relationship.)

In market fact, just as when the US Fed Chairman, or the FOMC, makes public statements, an announcement can be good for 50 pips up, followed by 100 down, followed by 50 up back to even, or that move in reverse, or no move at all.

Starting out in this business, don't trade announcements, and simply watch how the market responds in relation to what, for an economist or an academic (or even a rational being) should be the result.
  • #482,106
  • Jul 6, 2011 7:10pm Jul 6, 2011 7:10pm
took a long to 4380 or so.
  • #482,107
  • Jul 6, 2011 7:17pm Jul 6, 2011 7:17pm
Quoting OldQuant
Well, yes. But of course the only certain effect of an interest rate change is in swap rates and forward rates in general (the old interest rate parity relationship.)

In market fact, just as when the US Fed Chairman, or the FOMC, makes public statements, an announcement can be good for 50 pips up, followed by 100 down, followed by 50 up back to even, or that move in reverse, or no move at all.

Starting out in this business, don't trade announcements, and simply watch how the market responds in relation to what, for an economist or an...
yes thanks i agree
announcement tend to be volatile : better to watch
  • #482,108
  • Jul 6, 2011 7:17pm Jul 6, 2011 7:17pm
before fall in sleep............
place a sell limit @43810...... sl@44250 TP@42350

expired @ 10:20 BST 07.07.
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  • #482,109
  • Jul 6, 2011 7:17pm Jul 6, 2011 7:17pm
Quoting attila
took a long to 4380 or so.
@ what position you took the long??
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #482,110
  • Jul 6, 2011 7:18pm Jul 6, 2011 7:18pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
I just pointed that out, because gator mentioned a touch of 39 might lead to +40 min, BUT oanda screwed up on such a close touch before. you just can't trust them anymore... they've put a bullseye on just any account. with the 39.1 they kept me out of that position and if it plays out, I'll rage-quit.



he broadens my horizon pretty much. I have problems with his colleagues though, because they contradict each other quite frequently. and as he's the boss...
I follow him and krueger, but none of the others...

man, I'm so paranoid my broker is screwing with my executions...
  • #482,111
  • Jul 6, 2011 7:18pm Jul 6, 2011 7:18pm
damn, daily supports on Eur, Aud & Nzd in action at Tokyo open,

short Euro at 1.34251,
short Aud at 1.0700 even {limit order filled}
short NZD at .82770 {limit order filled}

open target, above previous highs for SL ...

Will BE and turn into scalp if I stay and watch ...
I gotta dollar .. I gotta dollar .. I gotta dollar .. HEY HEY HEY HEY
  • #482,112
  • Jul 6, 2011 7:24pm Jul 6, 2011 7:24pm
Quoting pennies
damn, daily supports on Eur, Aud & Nzd in action at Tokyo open,

short Euro at 1.34251,
short Aud at 1.0700 even {limit order filled}
short NZD at .82770 {limit order filled}

open target, above previous highs for SL ...

Will BE and turn into scalp if I stay and watch ...
Even though this is Eur/Usd thread, low traffic off hours so I am going to add another trade. And this might be a good trade to share.

I am still in my USD/CHF long trade, coming up on 50% on 2 previous swing fibs and it looks like we might have carved out a bottom for another swing up ... will add 2 more lots depending on how this plays out for the next 2 sessions.

edit - looking for breakout of trend line resistance also ... probably will add a 1/2 lot limit order for sh!ts n' giggles.
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I gotta dollar .. I gotta dollar .. I gotta dollar .. HEY HEY HEY HEY
  • #482,113
  • Jul 6, 2011 7:25pm Jul 6, 2011 7:25pm
maybe
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  • #482,114
  • Edited 7:39pm Jul 6, 2011 7:26pm | Edited 7:39pm
Quoting attila
took a long to 4380 or so.
pretty ambitious, i was targeting dpp in the mid 50's, but bailed as it came back past the break out origin... with no straight break and follow through, it's not following normal mo, so i don't know what's going on here, so sidelines for now...

gonna have a lye in tomorrow morning, as not expecting much of a range london am ahead of the rate decision announcement, but let's see...
  • #482,115
  • Jul 6, 2011 7:31pm Jul 6, 2011 7:31pm
Quoting johncen
@ what position you took the long??
you mean where I took it? 4327
  • #482,116
  • Jul 6, 2011 7:33pm Jul 6, 2011 7:33pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
pretty ambitious, i was targeting dpp in the mid 50's, but bailed as it came back past the break out origin... with no straight break and follow through, it's not following normal mo, so i don't know what's going on here, so sidelines for now...

gonna have a lye in tomorrow morning, as not expecting much of a range london am ahead of the rate decision announcement, but let's see...
pin bars on h4
  • #482,117
  • Jul 6, 2011 7:35pm Jul 6, 2011 7:35pm
Quoting attila
pin bars on h4
Not to mention the 50% fib from approx .4694-4072,
Attached Image
I gotta dollar .. I gotta dollar .. I gotta dollar .. HEY HEY HEY HEY
  • #482,118
  • Jul 6, 2011 7:39pm Jul 6, 2011 7:39pm
Quoting attila
pin bars on h4
my feed is on frankfurt time (CET), so my h4 probably looks quite different to yours, but them asians do like the daily pivot levels...
  • #482,119
  • Jul 6, 2011 7:42pm Jul 6, 2011 7:42pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
my feed is on frankfurt time (CET), so my h4 probably looks quite different to yours, but them asians do like the daily pivot levels...

what I see

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  • #482,120
  • Jul 6, 2011 7:43pm Jul 6, 2011 7:43pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
it's not following normal mo, so i don't know what's going on here, so sidelines for now...
One thing to keep in mind in the hours following a move like just happened: it leaves the dealers and the banks with their currency books out of balance. From a standpoint of their Value at Risk, from their natural triangle arb hedges, their commercials, rebalancing is needed, and we see the result of that order flow as weird chop behavior.
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