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Trading Made Simple

  • #6,601
  • Jun 30, 2011 5:55am Jun 30, 2011 5:55am
Quoting dean
I have the same problem often. Yes the trades mostly end up ok but its as if as soon as I enter it reverses 10 - 20 pips instantly before it goes into profit....I get the same feeling...as soon as I get the signal to enter, the trade is ready for a pullback. How do you guys avoid this?? what do you guys do or how do you time your entry to aavoid this. I am curious as to what you guys do.....the guys that are timing the trade right so they are into positive pips immediately rather than drawdown.
Dean, thanks for posting a reply. At least I'm not the only one seeing this!

I've been working on this system for a couple of months and at the start I had very bad results, mostly because of this problem. I got discouraged and quit for a few weeks, especially after my backtesting turned out to be flawed. (For those who saw my posts of unbelievable success in backtesting, read the posts a few days later showing that the original indi didn't work right in the tester!)

I've decided (once again) that I will NOT GIVE UP - EVER! I find that I have to decide that a lot. I see you guys are making it work and I will find out how. Thanks again to Big E and all you guys sharing your time and efforts and experience.
Luck occurs when preparation meets with opportunity.
  • #6,602
  • Jun 30, 2011 5:55am Jun 30, 2011 5:55am
Quoting AlienFrog
Bez, Nice job, keep up the great trades! I'm also trading demo like you on H4 charts and I'm now looking across all those pairs you are watching, and checking your 5 rules before I enter a trade - thanks for sharing that!

I've had a few successful trades but they had big draw down before turning profitable. The TDI signal seems to come after price has moved well into the trend, so at time of entry it may be ready for a pullback before returning to the direction of the trend, which causes the drawdown.

Big E says put your SL at the high/low...
You can get big draw downs but just use smaller lot sizes.
e.g. If you trade 1% of a 10k account per trade that is 100. If the last swing is 100 pips away only trade 1 per pip, if it's 50 pips away trade 2 per pip etc.......
The amount you risk should be the same if your SL is set for 50 or 200pips.
  • #6,603
  • Jun 30, 2011 5:57am Jun 30, 2011 5:57am
Quoting danc
AUD..JPY.. ??short.. Notice it is on a .618% 4 hr and weekly R3.. TDI turning down quite strong..
Is the red line 2 hi..??
I am also watching this, but I may be braking the rules a bit, but I am waiting to see if it breaks the 86.000 Physic level first
  • #6,604
  • Jun 30, 2011 5:59am Jun 30, 2011 5:59am
Quoting dean
I have the same problem often. Yes the trades mostly end up ok but its as if as soon as I enter it reverses 10 - 20 pips instantly before it goes into profit....I get the same feeling...as soon as I get the signal to enter, the trade is ready for a pullback. How do you guys avoid this?? what do you guys do or how do you time your entry to aavoid this. I am curious as to what you guys do.....the guys that are timing the trade right so they are into positive pips immediately rather than drawdown.
I think we will always have a drawdown thats what our SL is for, if we had no drawdown SL would be say 2 pips and we would all be rich trading hugh lot sizes. I see it as drawdown's as well as losses are all part of the package when trading (probably the hardest part).
  • #6,605
  • Jun 30, 2011 6:14am Jun 30, 2011 6:14am
Quoting bez3000
I am also watching this.
bez, what exactly are you waiting for? TDI has crossed at the new candle and previous candle looks good or is your TDI repainting(flapping up and down) during candle formation? Or are you waiting for PA to clear below that mess to the left?
  • #6,606
  • Jun 30, 2011 6:20am Jun 30, 2011 6:20am
Quoting bez3000
I am also watching this.
I agree...this is where ther is some confusion when people go up a time frame to check trend....some would say the daily is in an up trend becasue the last two candles are blue.....I see it as a downtrend so Yes it is a good setup BUT you are too late....second candle is nearly finished.
I am curious as to how everyone sees the daily on this chart?? we see a down...would anyone consider the G/U to be in an upward bias?
  • #6,607
  • Jun 30, 2011 6:23am Jun 30, 2011 6:23am
Quoting dean
I agree...this is where ther is some confusion when people go up a time frame to check trend....some would say the daily is in an up trend becasue the last two candles are blue.....I see it as a downtrend so Yes it is a good setup BUT you are too late....second candle is nearly finished.
I am curious as to how everyone sees the daily on this chart?? we see a down...would anyone consider the G/U to be in an upward bias?
Down for me
  • #6,608
  • Jun 30, 2011 6:23am Jun 30, 2011 6:23am
Did someone took eur/usd to short?
  • #6,609
  • Jun 30, 2011 6:24am Jun 30, 2011 6:24am
Quoting AlienFrog
Bez, Nice job, keep up the great trades! I'm also trading demo like you on H4 charts and I'm now looking across all those pairs you are watching, and checking your 5 rules before I enter a trade - thanks for sharing that!!
As well captured by BEZ and many others here, this system. if used correctly can be excellent at helping you identify winning trades. Back testing and demo trading however, although very important, does not expose you to the financial and emotional aspects of drawdowns. There are 100's of pips in the market each day but its a different story if you consider that you may have to have 100's of pips at risk to capture all of them.

Big E's recommendation of last swing high/swing low has shown to be very successful but the SLs needed and those which are realistic and manageable will differ from trader to trader. For those in a position to have wide stop losses on multiple pairs, the game is very different from those with much smaller risk/financial tolerance.

One way to either reduce the SLs needed or at least prevent the trade going against you immediately after getting in is to watch a lower timeframe. For example; I find watching the PA on the 15min TF can give you a good indication of whether you should wait for a better entry on a 4Hr trade. PA oscillates on every timeframe but if you can identify were the current cycle is at, you should be able to get better entries.

This is not adding anything to the system, but should be considered a basic forex check. If you are taking a short on the 4HR and at the time, the Green TDI on the 15min is pointing directly up, would'nt it be prudent to expect the price might move against you.. Typically this should get you in a better price or at least after a pullback occured so that you dont have to deal with emotional aspect of being down 15 or 20 pips immediately
  • #6,610
  • Jun 30, 2011 6:26am Jun 30, 2011 6:26am
Quoting bez3000
I think we will always have a drawdown thats what our SL is for, if we had no drawdown SL would be say 2 pips and we would all be rich trading hugh lot sizes. I see it as drawdown's as well as losses are all part of the package when trading (probably the hardest part).
Yes but there are some who seem to have the timing right where they are into the pips immediately...I seem to be straight into drawdown and then it comes back. Its not so bad but it means I am not timing it right and to be honest it could add 10-25 extra pips at the end of the trade...I am wondering if....when I get my signal...I should drill down to the 5 minute and wait for a retracement then enter??
  • #6,611
  • Jun 30, 2011 6:28am Jun 30, 2011 6:28am
i wait eurjpy and gbpusd short after 30 min but be carefully friend soon will be strong news and EURGreek Gov Debt Crisis Vote.
  • #6,612
  • Jun 30, 2011 6:30am Jun 30, 2011 6:30am
Quoting geobull
i wait eurjpy and gbpusd short after 30 min but be carefully friend soon will be strong news and EUR Greek Gov Debt Crisis Vote.
Is the vote now 12:30 GMT?
  • #6,613
  • Jun 30, 2011 6:35am Jun 30, 2011 6:35am
Quoting 2scoops
Is the vote now 12:30 GMT?
what you mean?
  • #6,614
  • Jun 30, 2011 6:36am Jun 30, 2011 6:36am
What goes up, must come down ......... right?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzd_usd_2.gif Size: 33 KB
OPPORTUNITY IS NOWHERE
  • #6,615
  • Jun 30, 2011 6:38am Jun 30, 2011 6:38am
Quoting Callisto
What goes up, must come down ......... right?
i shorted this last night, one the basic fact of putting my chart to monthly and seeing this is the highest!!! this currency pair has ever travelled give or take one time before around 2008, and my chart went as far back as 1989 :O
  • #6,616
  • Jun 30, 2011 6:41am Jun 30, 2011 6:41am
Quoting Callisto
What goes up, must come down ......... right?
I would see this as against the trend on pretty much all charts up to and including the weekly.....are you happy counter trend trading?
Not a critcism I am just curious.
  • #6,617
  • Jun 30, 2011 6:42am Jun 30, 2011 6:42am
Quoting geobull
what you mean?
Greek Parliament will vote to decide which measures in the 5-year "Medium Term Fiscal Strategy" austerity plan will be implemented

Think their voting about now 12:30GMT
  • #6,618
  • Jun 30, 2011 6:43am Jun 30, 2011 6:43am
Quoting dean
I would see this as against the trend on pretty much all charts up to and including the weekly.....are you happy counter trend trading?
Not a critcism I am just curious.
check your monthly, i think according to supply and demand sellers will be overidden like zombies at that level.
  • #6,619
  • Jun 30, 2011 6:44am Jun 30, 2011 6:44am
Quoting bez3000
I am in
Hello bez3000,

How many signals per day do you get? I'm in Brazil, GMT -3, and My Broker GMT is +2. I'm not getting good signs or lot of signs. Then I have tried to use the TF 1H, but Itīs not working consistently.
Did You set your SL and TP? or Do you follow the trade? How many pips against to you are necessary to stop and get out of the trade?

I would appreciate your advices.

Thank You
If I Change, the whole World changes!
  • #6,620
  • Jun 30, 2011 6:50am Jun 30, 2011 6:50am
Quoting deankenny21
check your monthly, i think according to supply and demand sellers will be overidden like zombies at that level.
I'm not sure what you are saying??? I am saying that I see it as being in a strong uptrend. Callisto was going short. Are you agreeing??
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