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  • #475,301
  • Jun 29, 2011 4:02am Jun 29, 2011 4:02am
Quoting cloggie
watch 4402 here


  • #475,302
  • Jun 29, 2011 4:06am Jun 29, 2011 4:06am
While everyone and his neighbour are waiting to short e/u, e/a was so easy intraday, 10-15 pips more south and I might scale out or lock in 100pip ts.
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Don't get mad, get even!
  • #475,303
  • Jun 29, 2011 4:07am Jun 29, 2011 4:07am
Quoting cloggie
Second that....

What is your view on the vote?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #475,304
  • Jun 29, 2011 4:12am Jun 29, 2011 4:12am
Quoting sintelion
Now that's some interesting close of the hour. LH, LL, trendline respected. If it wasn't for the vote, I'd definetely short that.
nice chart
no waiting already in 2nd rejection 4411 BE and leaving
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #475,305
  • Jun 29, 2011 4:12am Jun 29, 2011 4:12am
Quoting sisse
Second that....

What is your view on the vote?

sisse

I am not going to predict the thought process of the crazy Greeks here. The opposition party is going to vote no en-masse, there may be a few of the earlier yes camp that could well be swayed by the protests happening on the streets.

If there is a clear yes vote that will be good for the euro, a no vote however does not necessarily mean bad news for the euro as it wholy depends on how the ECB and Germany react on the back of the news. I foresee massive buying of debt by the ECB on a no vote which actually also supports the euro.

How am I going to trade it? I am going to watch the result and if the ECB does not step in on a no vote will be selling of this pair, if I do see the ECB fingerprints by watching the peripheral rates and CDS's then I will be actually buying it.

The vote is scheduled for 1200 BST, I am going to stay well clear and will not trade this pair until the dust has settled.

The Greek 10yr has been steadily dropping all morning, (16.35 now) the bond market seems to expect a yes vote.

4402, as mentioned yesterday is a player here and needs to be adressed either way, that is most likely not going to happen before the vote and could well be the trigger for the afternoon session.
  • #475,306
  • Jun 29, 2011 4:15am Jun 29, 2011 4:15am
Quoting cloggie

Thought a few hours back you said you won't be back here for a week or so as you have done enough muppet hunting?
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #475,307
  • Jun 29, 2011 4:17am Jun 29, 2011 4:17am
p!ss of rentboy.
  • #475,308
  • Jun 29, 2011 4:19am Jun 29, 2011 4:19am
1h

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Result of 4 hours of intensive and thorough technical analysis.
  • #475,309
  • Jun 29, 2011 4:20am Jun 29, 2011 4:20am
The muppets have returned, so I guess cloggie has too.

You can't help it can you !!

Why don't you just keep quiet.

Quoting Faller
Thought a few hours back you said you won't be back here for a week or so as you have done enough muppet hunting?
  • #475,310
  • Jun 29, 2011 4:20am Jun 29, 2011 4:20am
Probably a buy, before a very good sell...
Biggest joker
  • #475,311
  • Jun 29, 2011 4:20am Jun 29, 2011 4:20am
Quoting cloggie
p!ss of rentboy.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Magix http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Issue is my friend...

We are still short chart on the H4, and this being an H4 chart, we aint got that far to surf to trigger downs again...

We are bouncing down from topside resistance near as I can figure, where I don't have anything showing as support lines by my standards from the daily...


I trade the Euro futures.....which means are charts will be similar but not exactly the same......on my charts I get to see volume and there has been a lot of volume taking us up from 1.4089 (futures price) up to 1.4366 (futures price).....the kind of stopping volume bar 2 bars back has not been attacked to the downside for the past 8 hours......I also look at my MACD which is crossing over and spreading open as I type.....my stochs are also nicely flat lining just above 80.......which in my history indicates a further move up.......but indies are indies......they will turn with the price......a further push up to 1.44 (futures price) would not be out of the question.......currently the spread between futures and current cash price is about 30 pips.....my current futures price 1.4323 and cash price is 1.4355....therefore if we move to 1.44 on the futures you can see 1.4435 on the cash.......just my insight. The chart that I am referring to is the 4 hour chart.

Peace.


hmmmmm I posted this last night at 7:18pm est..........not too bad for a rentboy....missed by only about 15 pips........so why don't you take your own advice.
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #475,312
  • Jun 29, 2011 4:22am Jun 29, 2011 4:22am
Quoting Dayboy001
The muppets have returned, so I guess cloggie has too.

Yup.
  • #475,313
  • Jun 29, 2011 4:22am Jun 29, 2011 4:22am
Quoting cloggie
I am not going to predict the thought process of the crazy Greeks here. The opposition party is going to vote no en-masse, there may be a few of the earlier yes camp that could well be swayed by the protests happening on the streets.

If there is a clear yes vote that will be good for the euro, a no vote however does not necessarily mean bad news for the euro as it wholy depends on how the ECB and Germany react on the back of the news. I foresee massive buying of debt by the ECB on a no vote which actually also supports the euro.

How am I going...

thanks Cloggie,

as always there are a few (muppets) who will knock the wiser and more experienced traders (too many to mention) but for newer guys like me its a great source of learning.

keep it up please

Grant
  • #475,314
  • Jun 29, 2011 4:22am Jun 29, 2011 4:22am
Quoting cloggie
I am not going to predict the thought process of the crazy Greeks here. The opposition party is going to vote no en-masse, there may be a few of the earlier yes camp that could well be swayed by the protests happening on the streets.

If there is a clear yes vote that will be good for the euro, a no vote however does not necessarily mean bad news for the euro as it wholy depends on how the ECB and Germany react on the back of the news. I foresee massive buying of debt by the ECB on a no vote which actually also supports the euro.

How am I going...
gotta say, that's a quality post cloggs...

what's your take on positive expectation already being priced in? just thinking back to the confidence vote...
  • #475,315
  • Jun 29, 2011 4:23am Jun 29, 2011 4:23am
Quoting Faller
Quote:
Originally Posted by Magix http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
[i]Issue is my friend...

We are still short chart on the H4, and this being an H4 chart, we aint got that far to surf to trigger downs again...

We are bouncing down from topside resistance near as I can...
Care to post 1h chart with volumes?
  • #475,316
  • Jun 29, 2011 4:24am Jun 29, 2011 4:24am
GM all happy trading to all
  • #475,317
  • Jun 29, 2011 4:25am Jun 29, 2011 4:25am
Quoting Faller
hmmmmm I posted this last night at 7:18pm est..........not too bad for a rentboy....missed by only about 15 pips........so why don't you take your own advice.
Um....

Dude...

Wouldn't go bragging about buying up an uncontested top where Asian hadn't played..

Even newbs got that one right...
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #475,318
  • Jun 29, 2011 4:25am Jun 29, 2011 4:25am
Quoting cloggie
I am not going to predict the thought process of the crazy Greeks here. The opposition party is going to vote no en-masse, there may be a few of the earlier yes camp that could well be swayed by the protests happening on the streets.

If there is a clear yes vote that will be good for the euro, a no vote however does not necessarily mean bad news for the euro as it wholy depends on how the ECB and Germany react on the back of the news. I foresee massive buying of debt by the ECB on a no vote which actually also supports the euro.

How...
Agree. Staying on the sidelines too till reaction. Too much expectation kills the market short term too.

What is clear is that Greece is a disaster with or without austerity. The cuts are obviously necessary but definitively politically (and probably socially) unsustainable in Greece so its mainly a vote for the external players.

The best option for them is still openly defaulting, cut the crap clean, reform, shut up & pay the cost for the next few years and have fresh start ... wishful thinking ...another delay is the realistic scenario (with or without the approval). Debt/Greece/Protest/ will come back later. Well sad for them but good for us as it will avoid killing the pair volatility...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #475,319
  • Jun 29, 2011 4:25am Jun 29, 2011 4:25am
Quoting T.E.Lawrence
Care to post 1h chart with volumes?

I can, however, the chart I was referring to is the 4 hour chart......what would you rather see....the 1 hour chart or the 4 hour chart?
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #475,320
  • Jun 29, 2011 4:27am Jun 29, 2011 4:27am
Quoting grant18265
thanks Cloggie,

as always there are a few (muppets) who will knock the wiser and more experienced traders (too many to mention) but for newer guys like me its a great source of learning.

keep it up please

Grant

If you are desperate to trade this pair before the news, you can keep scalping the tests of the 4402 area to the southside until 4402 is resolved. Right now the pair is still aiming North and will continue once 4402 has given up, unless 4402 coincides with a no vote. So that should be your focus for the next 90 minutes or so.

As a retailer, you would probably be better of just shooting the crap in here or download some stuff you wouldn't want your mom to see till the Greek party starts.
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