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  • #474,321
  • Jun 28, 2011 9:53am Jun 28, 2011 9:53am
Looking to add longs with a bounce around 4350 area. Call me nuts but I trade the trend my friend. The Daily is definately up, the 4 hr is definately up. But for now we are in a nice Triangle seen nicely on the Daily with a make or break point at 4500 area.

Quoting needpips
What?
  • #474,322
  • Jun 28, 2011 9:53am Jun 28, 2011 9:53am
Also, a strategy comment while the coffee is brewing.

The pa of the last 8 hours is a "cross" strategy's nightmare scenario. The moves were so fast, no "fast" ema would be able to keep up with them. Eyeballing the chart, trading crosses of a 45M over a 12H would have given a loss of over 100 ticks due to the lag and the whipsaws.

And while you'd we within 15 or so of even right now, there's no cross anywhere close yet and who knows how fast the long ema can gain.

Moral: If you're considering some kind of simpler cross based trend following, make sure you look at lots of days like this in simulation before starting it up, and also, make sure you have the psychology and faith in the long term to be able to use it.
  • #474,323
  • Jun 28, 2011 9:53am Jun 28, 2011 9:53am
could we please have some directional movement in july? ... may and june have just been whipsaw headaches..
  • #474,324
  • Jun 28, 2011 9:54am Jun 28, 2011 9:54am
Quoting kenfen69


Been shorting all day yesterday and today. K-I-L-L-E-R! Nothing added to long term account...yet. Swing account...been adding some small shorts, but have some longs running, too...nearly ready to close them and go net short.

Scalping? Hardest I've had to work for my few percent in a while. Was quite stunned by the rate it took off north. Just couldn't flick the "long" switch in my head soon enough. Still doesn't make "sense" to me (not that that matters to the market), so I am now back to a "neutral" stance in my head for...
Ah, I always take the daily chart as guidance for my bias in the trend. Yesterday's bull candle was a no brainier to switch gears.

Not to mention, this triangle crap we have got going on lol... I'm glad to see the Aussie is coming back to life a little bit as well, i'm ready to start hammering some orders into it again. Been a pretty sad month so far on it.

For euro, overall bias is still short until a close above 4400, today and yesterday I consider retrace plays.
  • #474,325
  • Edited 11:49am Jun 28, 2011 9:55am | Edited 11:49am
Quoting 10piptrade
Yes there will be a put back from this area, the 6 month have been reject for the last couple week and will continue to do the same as it approach it
i only see more up if the any 4 hr open above the 3 month MA,
Following the current trend
  • #474,326
  • Jun 28, 2011 9:56am Jun 28, 2011 9:56am
Quoting sisse
Agree in the consolidation.

This time that triangle rejection was in conjunction with daily S which give a lot of confidence in the long when the fail in the morning to hold the daily roll triggered.

To be honest and as you can read in the morning posts I gave bears too much credit (my FA bias before the recent developments) and more than enough chances to work out (missed the whole day yesterday) but well I can't complain now.

Are you playing the top of the triangle as a target? I am happy with the current 1.443x horizontal daily R but...
im looking at the same targets, as you said.. 4430, 4530 and possibly higher.. are my targets too.. but the fundies are too sensitive, and im ready to switch my bias as long my 1h gann goes OFF.. it is nice to follow the trend.. but at the end of the day pips are Pips..

cheers mate..
  • #474,327
  • Jun 28, 2011 9:56am Jun 28, 2011 9:56am
Quoting Venice
Just checked in on the weekly chart. Bears are going to be having a hell of a time if we close around or above these levels.
I was looking at that too It will only take them couple of days to fix anything if they are determined enough We have not reached last weeks high and its still tuesday. looks similar to the previous couple of weeks. might look like a nice wick or a strong close depending on friday..

in any case more conservative people would wait for a close. everything can change in 5 minutes and thats true love of forex

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #474,328
  • Jun 28, 2011 9:57am Jun 28, 2011 9:57am
Quoting Mr Hatch
applying for an audience via skype in the next couple of days
would like to talk to you about a couple of things.
lol...

My skype is always open to you my friend. I hope you are enjoying the day.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #474,329
  • Jun 28, 2011 9:57am Jun 28, 2011 9:57am
Quoting tornado11
Hey guys, to be perfectly honest with you all. Long term trend on this pair is UP, not down. Contrary to popular belief. See chart. Got to watch the LTT. Any short to me is a counter trade......PERIOD. Dont know why everyone tries to trade against it, but to each his own I guess.
depends on your long term tf.. 2000/2008 up 2008 till today down.. i guess it depends on what you consider long term. but basically your right. and you being right insurers the euro will go to 0.. because longer term commodities will go up. and it will carry other currencies with it including the euro. the bad thing about a high euro is.. it is a high euro. just like anything else when the price is too high people buy less of it. this high price reverts to anything bought from ez verses u.s. currency or Asian... im not short atm.. maybe at 4397... but i definitely could not long here yet.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #474,330
  • Jun 28, 2011 9:58am Jun 28, 2011 9:58am
Quoting mercy seat
Or moonglightning ... as you name it ?
i believe he meant moonlighting

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/Moonlighting
Quoting Piters
yes mate higher TF are roadmap.. you dont need a GPS..
haha..
higher TF is the GPS... no batteries needed

Quoting sisse
Happy face here. Taking 2nd target a few tick below monthly roll and...
what is 'roll'? thanks

Quoting Piters
yesterday's bounce of that triangle LTL was nasty.. .. good job, we are still in consolidation on Daily..
let's see if it stays that way... for how long.
  • #474,331
  • Jun 28, 2011 9:58am Jun 28, 2011 9:58am
bbl
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #474,332
  • Jun 28, 2011 9:58am Jun 28, 2011 9:58am
Quoting Piters
im looking at the same targets, as you said.. 4430, 4530 and possibly higher.. are my targets too.. but the fundies are too sensitive, and im ready to switch my bias as long my 1h gann goes OFF.. it is nice to follow the trend.. but at the end of the day pips are Pips..

cheers mate..
the chart you looking for is over in the other threat (pkmync) ( not sure yet) possibility!

last chart- triangle - possible that we collapse down to 1.37
  • #474,333
  • Jun 28, 2011 9:59am Jun 28, 2011 9:59am
Quoting RichFWebb
could we please have some directional movement in july? ... may and june have just been whipsaw headaches..
Actually, there've been a lot of solid moves for anyone who didn't try to catch falling knives or skyrockets or have the performance align with some unrealistic target level call.
  • #474,334
  • Jun 28, 2011 9:59am Jun 28, 2011 9:59am
Reversed a bit at 1.43945 ... highest been 1.43971 with mine ...

But covered here already at 1.43692 ...

As I think we can see further upside later ...



;-|
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-06-28 _ (16h31 CET) EUR-USD _ 120min _ 000 candle 300-501-30.GIF Size: 73 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-06-28 _ (16h55 CET) EUR-USD _ 120min _ 000 candle 300-501-30.GIF Size: 74 KB
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #474,335
  • Jun 28, 2011 9:59am Jun 28, 2011 9:59am
Quoting KiwiTrada
ripe juicy peach grizzly, we will see shortly one way or other, all ladies
gbp/aud is pretty good atm or been very good all day, I just didn't get many pips, too greedy to close and to scared to wide sl. Ended up BE most of the time, pip or two up or down but there was plenty of pippage to collect...
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #474,336
  • Jun 28, 2011 10:00am Jun 28, 2011 10:00am
Quoting darimik
I was looking at that too It will only take them couple of days to fix anything if they are determined enough We have not reached last weeks high and its still tuesday. looks similar to the previous couple of weeks. might look like a nice wick or a strong close depending on friday..

in any case more conservative people would wait for a close. everything can change in 5 minutes and thats true love of forex
Yep. It is only Tuesday and it could very well be brought right back down.

Kind of pointless really for me to point that out, lol.

PS. I am one of those fools that wait for candle close . But daily chart is my bread and butter. I get 5 candles a week, got to make them count when I can.
  • #474,337
  • Jun 28, 2011 10:00am Jun 28, 2011 10:00am
Did someone say Monthly in here. Well, take a good look at that monthly candle people. It is a certified failure and is wicking out bigtime.. Although I dont like to look at it with 3 days left, but it is looking all BOTTOM to me. This month and the last are failing the Oct/Nov highs.
  • #474,338
  • Jun 28, 2011 10:01am Jun 28, 2011 10:01am
EURUSD H4:
Above ATR,
Yellow trend line pierced,
Fibonacci Cluster + Fibo Extension.
I would short with tight SL.


Seb


BTW: F@ck EURO.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #474,339
  • Jun 28, 2011 10:02am Jun 28, 2011 10:02am
Quoting gatorinla
i bet happier then some were with the long calls the last 2 weeks. how soon they forget. with m/m the bad times aren't so bad. you can make money then too.
so do I have to give the money back I just made by selling at 96 back now
...., got lucky on that one...
Attached Image
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #474,340
  • Jun 28, 2011 10:02am Jun 28, 2011 10:02am
Quoting supremeChaos
i believe he meant moonlighting

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/Moonlighting

haha..
higher TF is the GPS... no batteries needed


what is 'roll'? thanks


let's see if it stays that way... for how long.
Thank you for that ...

Doing some job at evening it says ... good good ...
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
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