EURUSD

What happens if 1.4212 is broken? where does it go next?

This is what I get. This is not the right time to short euro. Some wait time before entering a longer-term position.

USD/CHF still has some downside potential. Not until it breaks these two red bars and stays above.

One has to start right.

MAY BE BUT FIRST 1.4064...THEN 1.3990....1.3969...(double bottom)

After that everything else......below...

Some experimental levels I'm going to work with next week, mofus are around 30 pip range, 97-98 pips apart calculated using some fib levels and PA of last two weeks.
Prices in white don't mean much, it's just the middle of mofu range.

That 4238 short was carried over, be+10, tp currently 3900...

Zoomed in H1

weekly chart

hi, where can i download pivot indicator in your chart? It looks very nice.

I wish I had one too, they're all manually drawn using equidistant channels drawn in the background with modified time and value parameters.

Zooming in M15 shows much clearer why these ranges appear to me to have some significant meaning.

Your influence is all over it

Thx

Sure , but not impossible any yet. A camel with baby may still come forward to save the whole thing , the eurozone. just need confirmation of action and prove not that thirsty in the parturition .
Note ,round top for bear continuation not happened yet with few attempts so far & fundamentally nothing to usdx absolute strength, checking tv news but now fatigued with much delays , rather relative euro weakness due local turmoils , nothing serious the local issues.If any planned group manipulation with gold selling , should be very temporary.

3861 still limit intact & even need a firm grip there ok too.
Another logic , as we see there are very strong bear action possible & almost certain to all & may short everybody then market may not give everybody a free lottery & certainly think the opposite to all to abosorb in market pool.kill them all & come back alone with something unique!!
fontu

yeah !the good old classic camel pattern

I enjoyed how the prediction line went to the left, on the top there

Yes it's because only a time travel machine can save the Euro

yeah , a rescue camel may reach there from sands arounds though looks like a dinosaurous from ancient time ,from impossible far away.

fontu


yes larseg , if it come action & bear fail continue now or then or hold for some more time then left top may not take much time .That is even it success 3861 reach and or breach towards 35XX or not then the next big wave should be up , top first & up. with eu demise not know though what happen & never think it anyway.

dont know. i posted 3000 3500 a month ago when oil broke down. from the 4$ gas rejection. high oil has been the cause of all recessions since 1970. we just suffered one in 2008. in 2008 we had 4 $ gas, then we crashed. boosting the usd. it usually takes 2 years to flush high oil from the system. well 2008 was the not a normal recession and we still have not flushed the system from 2008. late last year it pushed up again until the decline started at about 4$ gas. gasoline decline in not the only thing that subtracted at 4$ gasoline. oil is in all things made, in cost. all manufacturing, food, clothing, or shelter. if its not in it, its shipped with it. i had a 89.39 target for oil... we never reached it yet... but we did get close at 89.70... gold target at 1492 was reached as well as the silver one.. at 36.48... next for sliver is 32.32 and gold 1440.40.... i think.... there is a lower mofu at 1500.49 that gold broke but then closed at 1500.65.. so it does have a broken candle. (these are usually rejected, so gold may bounce N first) but silver has never recovered to even touch the 32.32 mofu... so it may get some gold bounce sympathy but both should hit the target.. the next monthly candle can still cross unbroken for oil, gold, silver.

if oil is below 83.19 (with close) then the long term direction for the euro is much lower. 76.43 oil closed would be epic. we touched my oil mid and bounced twice last week at 89.95... below it, i target 89.37 .. a shallow bounce from it then a close below could be a huge bear sign... if we go lower. gold, silver and oil will reach a major support at about the same time.. usdx closed at 75.63.. it needs 76.64...with a close. there should be resistance at 76.88... but the close at the month is all that is needed. that close would be the euro about 3970 area. oil and the usdx is the ones to watch.. it this happens the rest will fall in place, longer term.

high oil takes a min of 2 years to get out the system. as oil drops it decreases the u.s. deficit. and strengthens the usd. and making oil drop more. in turn the china won strengthens. this makes U.S. and Asian products cost more for other nations. so china verses the U.S. is a wash.. (NOT!!!... china has recently raised the value on the won verses the usd. So china's products are more expensive for everyone. They had to to curve food inflation. ) so china may be in back of the woodshed for a time.
if they are. this will further decrease oil demand. we are in a unstable world.
Greece ect. is past the point of no return. The only thing that can save them is asses in seats. a high euro hurts tourism from U.S. as well as asia (currency is pegged to the usd) less asses in seats. so if oil drops and boost the usd. (decreasing u.s. inflation) it may allow wiggle room for ecb not to raise. a recession from the past high oil may already have started. if so oil demand may drop further. because of the recession. im not a economist. they will tell you we are in a recession 2 yrs after we are in one. any way the chart indicates further lower.. but support as always may have other plans... we have yet to break with close the ones mentioned last week.. 4157/63/68 and so forth... im not saying one day oil wont be 200 bucks a barrel. but the mid east knows if oil is too high we will find something else. they could drop supply... but meanwhile inflation puts peasants in mid east streets if they do. the world is in a big cluster phuck. no different that it was in 1929/1939. the Germans stopped inflation this time. but the result may have the same result. with the peasants hitting the streets in Europe.

the higher we go.. the closer we get to 0000.0

^ I agree, that was well put. A couple of questions if you have time.

How do you think XAU/USD will behave mid-term, lets say 12 months?
Do you think 1577 was the ceiling and it's going south for good?
How would that affect US gold reserves or how probable is the idea of the treasury selling gold to reduce debt?
Also what do you think how much impact on XAU/XAG the recent Dodd-Frank implementations will have in the same term perspective?

Cheers!

keep an eye on 4163.... for a month close. it would make it a bear engulfed month with a close over April's candle. 3981 would be a monthly candle support... but if we close the month below it... then we go much lower ... maybe under the basement as 2008 chart indicates we should. this would be the same as a close usdx above 76.64.. both should happen if one does. if not we bounce. a few longs here (3981)wouldn't be a bad thing. unless we don't bounce.