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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #24,681
  • Jun 23, 2011 10:24am Jun 23, 2011 10:24am
Agreed. If BOJ came in here and kickstarted it above these resistance levels it would take off and never look back.


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I'd be adding on a retest...
Gone to a better place
  • #24,682
  • Jun 23, 2011 10:33am Jun 23, 2011 10:33am
Quoting Astroman
Thanks, same to you as well.

I do not know what it is about this Pair but how many times we seen it get stuck in this very tight trading range, sometimes for several days, and then it makes a strong move one way or the other and get caught back into this tight little trading range again?

Just like a gentle little wave going up and down inside the range several times a day for several days.
Told you this pair is a piece of crap.

Quoting Forexia
That's cuz everybody is too chicken shit to do anything on this piece of crap of pair.

They are afraid of forcing it down to too low because of this fear of "intervention". After all, all the Big Brothers are watching and will be prepared to intervene if "warranted".

They can't move the pair too high either cuz the USD is in such a shitty state and there is just no ammunition for them to do that.
And that's like several weeks ago and nothing is changed especially that BoJ has comed out and "warned" about the "disorderly movement" of Yen!

Sorry to hear it didn't hit your target. I was sure you got some pips from that up move.

Still, good pipping to you!
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #24,683
  • Jun 23, 2011 3:42pm Jun 23, 2011 3:42pm
all this pair can do is building wegdes inside of wegdes and on top one more mini-wedge
  • #24,684
  • Jun 24, 2011 1:42am Jun 24, 2011 1:42am
does this pair every get moving????? its been so long holding this position.... please can you go up now.
There is Time for Bull, and Time for Bear. and so be the Wolf.
  • #24,685
  • Jun 24, 2011 3:05am Jun 24, 2011 3:05am
for several day the price looking for a way to go, we could sell it because it touched the trend line which is act as resistence level for several days short 80.48 TP 80.00.


have nice trade
  • #24,686
  • Jun 24, 2011 3:13am Jun 24, 2011 3:13am
but e price is moving in sime dawn trend and now looking to go dawn again till there is news will push it to up. in mean time there is posebilite to go dawn, because its touched the daily H/L. which is 80.50, is shorting it am looking to take 80.00..

how do you see it?


Quoting smikester
Agreed. If BOJ came in here and kickstarted it above these resistance levels it would take off and never look back.


Attachment

I'd be adding on a retest...
  • #24,687
  • Jun 24, 2011 3:54am Jun 24, 2011 3:54am
Hello,

GBPUSD already break To Downtrend,
EURUSD Also almost break to Downtrend

USDJPY Technically and Fundamentally would move higher slowly,Unless Some Naughty Big Seller Step In To Test The BOJ Again

EURJPY Would Move Down Faster than you imagine due the weak Euro and Japanese Yen
  • #24,688
  • Jun 25, 2011 1:51am Jun 25, 2011 1:51am
http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=397
  • #24,689
  • Jun 25, 2011 2:04am Jun 25, 2011 2:04am
yah it is ranging. but I will buy at 80.750 and TP at 81.00.

for me I see it, its will contenue going dawn to test again the 79.560.
am looking at daily chart.
good weekend


Quoting clc4x
http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=397
  • #24,690
  • Jun 25, 2011 9:59am Jun 25, 2011 9:59am
Quoting Forexia
Told you this pair is a piece of crap.

You seem to be mad at this Pair. Just curious; are you currently holding a position and if not what direction are you waiting for and what price level or movement will spark your interest?

I have the feeling you want to go Long but there is nothing there for you do so yet.

Personally I love this Pair and I do not mind these tight (understatement ) trading ranges. This is just my opinion, and I am no expert, so take it for what it is worth; this Pair behaves so nicely most of the times, until it makes that one violent move up or down. Pivot Points, weekly and daily, are so important on this one....in my opinion.....but like all markets there is one thing we can count on.....what has been working in the past will surely change sometime in the future so it is very important that we don't get stuck in what has worked for us in the past.

Anyway, I do not mean this in a bad way, I get a good laugh when I hear you talking about this "piece of crap Pair". It can be frustrating.





Quote
Sorry to hear it didn't hit your target. I was sure you got some pips from that up move.

Still, good pipping to you!

I got 6 whole Pips out of my last trade!!!!



I should not laugh, it is better than nothing. Would have cashed in to a nice profit if I didn't go to bed that evening and I set my TP a bit too high but what the Hell.

The weekly trading range has been anemic here lately. 2 out of the last 3 weeks have been below 80 and even if we exclude those two it is still pretty light. It will not last forever.

Good wishes to you.

  • #24,691
  • Jun 25, 2011 10:09pm Jun 25, 2011 10:09pm
Quoting Astroman

You seem to be mad at this Pair. Just curious; are you currently holding a position and if not what direction are you waiting for and what price level or movement will spark your interest?

I have the feeling you want to go Long but there is nothing there for you do so yet.

Personally I love this Pair and I do not mind these tight (understatement ) trading ranges. This is just my opinion, and I am no expert, so take it for what it is worth; this Pair behaves so nicely most of the times, until it makes that one violent move up or down....
For my trading, I only hold positions when I see a trend starting so since my trading approach is trend-based, when this piece of crap pair is ranging, it does me no good. It's limiting my profit potential and even losing me pips. As to directions, I am direction-neutral. I try not to have too strong of a conviction of a particular direction for a pair because trend can change anytime. The worst is me stubbornly holding onto a belief of a particular direction and telling myself the market is wrong. Being there, done that. Not fun!

I don't wait for a particular price level to enter into positions because I find levels doesn't mean much in the face of a strong trend. When the trend is strong, no matter how significant a level is, it will get broken. When the trend is weak, even the most insignificant, the tiniest bump in the curve will stop the PA dead in its tracks. I only use price levels as a guide when I TP.

As to this piece of crap pair, in the long run, I actually believe it would go down. The fundamentals are still there. They have solid and well-diversified economy and stable democratic political environment. And that hasn't changed so I don't see why the Yen needs to weaken. In the short term however, I do believe the pair should go up due to the country needing to recover from its most recent natural disaster and the overall global financial crisis caused by the son of bitch U.S. which is busy printing money right now that is impeding the piece of crap pair going up.

My 2 cents. Good pipping to you!
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #24,692
  • Jun 26, 2011 11:20am Jun 26, 2011 11:20am
US Data Fails to Help and investors are nevous about this pair. i would gump trade this pair with candlestick and ma until i see some good news for the dollar. 80.90 shows that the downtrend can be broken , if u notice this pair seems to be going slightly north despite some bad news . i kind of like this pair more and more.




Quoting Forexia
For my trading, I only hold positions when I see a trend starting so since my trading approach is trend-based, when this piece of crap pair is ranging, it does me no good. It's limiting my profit potential and even losing me pips. As to directions, I am direction-neutral. I try not to have too strong of a conviction of a particular direction for a pair because trend can change anytime. The worst is me stubbornly holding onto a belief of a particular direction and telling myself the market is wrong. Being there, done that. Not fun!

I don't wait...
  • #24,693
  • Jun 26, 2011 11:46am Jun 26, 2011 11:46am
With all this congestion,when it breaks out it should be a big movement for long-term/weekly traders.
I am expecting a false break to either side and then movement in real direction.
Better have no bias at this point.
Strong downtrend in favor of bear.
Strong support at 79-80 for bull.
  • #24,694
  • Jun 26, 2011 12:47pm Jun 26, 2011 12:47pm
Target is 62.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #24,695
  • Jun 26, 2011 5:17pm Jun 26, 2011 5:17pm
62 what???

Not trading UJ at the moment, too much going on in UC, GJ and EU
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #24,696
  • Jun 26, 2011 8:43pm Jun 26, 2011 8:43pm
more likely to be bullish ? end of QE2 .

Quoting zentrader99
With all this congestion,when it breaks out it should be a big movement for long-term/weekly traders.
I am expecting a false break to either side and then movement in real direction.
Better have no bias at this point.
Strong downtrend in favor of bear.
Strong support at 79-80 for bull.
  • #24,697
  • Jun 26, 2011 11:01pm Jun 26, 2011 11:01pm
Quoting tankokjian
more likely to be bullish ? end of QE2 .
Right, but bullish to where perhaps only 81.35/81.66 area for the next day or so and then still ranging downward, yes perhaps towards the end of the week a move to 82.20 area and I would call this a monster move, but not a swing in trend or consensus on dollar strength, I say this as I believe the EUR is a major factor in the safe haven play and the dollar will begin to run on the end of QE2 fuel, will this create a major shift in the overall trend of the dollar, I'm hopeful, but doubt it, recovery yes, but slow and steady...if this makes any sense.

My two cents as I was long, got out, now short, about to exit that and stand aside for more direction
Never been vouched
  • #24,698
  • Edited 9:44am Jun 27, 2011 8:55am | Edited 9:44am
break out of consolidation zone + break of 1h and 4h channel, successfull retest of 80.85 should confirm further uptrend, next resistance areas around 81.1 and 81.6 and 82.2

otherwise retest of 80.6 or 80.2

http://www.ps.wol-clan.de/img/picshare_1309182523.gif
  • #24,699
  • Jun 27, 2011 4:38pm Jun 27, 2011 4:38pm
Hi guys. I saw an interesting post about what happened to UJ last time QE ended.

http://www.kathylien.com/site/federa...usd-and-usdjpy

Very interesting how this pair responded( falling from 95 to roughly 84 ) on the announcement of ending QE1 whereas the other pairs all fell hard to the USD

In any case, I wonder why this time would be any different? It seems to me the same fears of recession and further QE being needed are as prevalent as ever. I suppose it would fall in line and drop agaisnt the USD due to the earthquake forcing the currency to lose some of its demand as a safe haven?

I could be wrong... but I suppose we will see.. any other ideas are welcome

FYI Im still short this pair in the face of this rally but I will exit with a loss if the 81.15 area is taken out.
  • #24,700
  • Jun 28, 2011 11:25am Jun 28, 2011 11:25am
demo contest account . lol. what is your idea ?
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