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Sonic R. System

  • #22,161
  • Jun 23, 2011 11:09am Jun 23, 2011 11:09am
Quoting traderathome
Personal Comment:

I am disgusted with myself today, making rookie moves and mistakes.

Maybe I should try what Sonic is doing....just trade EU, just be more patient about entries.

With 24 closed trades this week, 19 profitable for 794 pips, I should not complain. But I am, because I am getting the feeling I am trading too many pairs, and trading too much, entering too soon, etc.

This may be it for the week for me. But whenever I do resume, it will be EU & patience.....give myself a chance to unwind.
I think if you look at the 5 min chart - it all becomes much clearer.

Frankie doing itīs fake move on high volume - the candle just 10 min before London open was cut right off
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"The future is already written in the past"
  • #22,162
  • Jun 23, 2011 11:13am Jun 23, 2011 11:13am
Mates, I am seeing people having many problems with SS ... even sonic ... I do not think are good entries and are very risky ... the hitrate can be 50%.

SonicR classic work very well for a 70% hitrate even more dependent on market conditions, then ... Why do we need to complicate?

It may be lack of patience can be because we want take every swing ...

My advice based on what I learned here of the masters (Sonic, TAH, Basber, Ddaytrader, Domas, muhamad, etc ...), more than I have been added, is:

To SonicR Classic:
1.Mark S & R zones in the H4 chart and zoon in to m30 for your wave analisys.

2. Hold the right waves and well-formed (in time). It is easier to see in the chart m30 (less noise).

3. It takes into account the climax bars (red and green) of the VA indicator, usually indicate that the PA found ,an obstacle (s&r) and can stop there or continue. Take action if you are in that you can refuse a trade or to see these bars. Blue bars usually indicate when starting vol occur through an S & R. You can use the climax bars of VA candle bars indicator for easier identification of S&R. Overall in H1 and M30.

To SoniR Re-entry:

1. After a BIG RUN (up or down) a nice pullback ... wait ... the best is when the price goes back to the dragon ... when the PA back in the direction of BIG RUN ... you can enter your order.

2. Thigh SL work fine for this entry...maybe above/below dragon if the Pullback goes until the dragon.

Best Regards.
"Being picky only cost your time - not MONEY"...Hans
  • #22,163
  • Jun 23, 2011 11:24am Jun 23, 2011 11:24am
Quoting nando_rich
Mates, I am seeing people having many problems with SS ... even sonic ... I do not think are good entries and are very risky ... the hitrate can be 50%.

SonicR classic work very well for a 70% hitrate even more dependent on market conditions, then ... Why do we need to complicate?

It may be lack of patience can be because we want take every swing ...

My advice based on what I learned here of the masters (Sonic, TAH, Basber, Ddaytrader, Domas, muhamad, etc ...), more than I have been added, is:

To SonicR Classic:
1.Mark S & R zones in the...
Nando, great post! May I ask that when you post on a trade, you repeat the steps you used in the analysis for the trade. Not to labor you, but just for a while. Such repetition will help all zero in on executing the analysis procedure you have just outlined.

Again, great post, Nando. Many thanks.
  • #22,164
  • Jun 23, 2011 11:39am Jun 23, 2011 11:39am
Quoting traderathome
Nando, great post! May I ask that when you post on a trade, you repeat the steps you used in the analysis for the trade. Not to labor you, but just for a while. Such repetition will help all zero in on executing the analysis procedure you have just outlined.

Again, great post, Nando. Many thanks.
that is what I'm missing here and was writing about few weeks or month ago.
would be nice to see something like analisis of possible upcoming setup, but not a fact that trade is open and chart for that. many newbies (including me) would learn a lot from that. I know, it takes some time to write, to make charts, but... this thread has been made for that
  • #22,165
  • Edited 12:04pm Jun 23, 2011 11:44am | Edited 12:04pm
UChf:

I am posting on this for three reasons,
1. open trades
2. example of Nando's observations about green/red VA bars running to S&R, where price might reverse, or pause and proceed
3. Kimis just requested this sort of "pre-action" analysis

H4 shows a S&R area (black line) that was hit by a red VA bar. Next, PA moved back up. Now PA is moving back on on blue VA bars (rising volume).

The process this paints is that the S&R area is solid, and is expected to hold. Now, PA is being run back towards it with increasing volume, which is the market taking increasing advantage of this low area. This, in turn, suggests buying/building positions for a future run up.

Just check the Monthly chart on your own. This pair is down "big time", and ripe for a reversal. Which is what to stalk this for.

M30 shows added local S&R line higher than the one on H4. If PA bounces up off it, then a SonicR long trade setup might develop representing a bounce up, important because it is in the whole number area you see there.

H1 shows the potential for a turn up. BTW, it is the M15 Dragon configuration which you see on both the M30 and the H1 chart.
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  • #22,166
  • Jun 23, 2011 12:02pm Jun 23, 2011 12:02pm
how does this work on a consolidation market ?
  • #22,167
  • Jun 23, 2011 12:03pm Jun 23, 2011 12:03pm
EU. some pinpoint/hammer candle on H4, closing part of shorts at +200 pips
rest on SL BE+150
  • #22,168
  • Jun 23, 2011 12:16pm Jun 23, 2011 12:16pm
Quoting kimis
EU. some pinpoint/hammer candle on H4, closing part of shorts at +200 pips
rest on SL BE+150
EU:

H4 shows the hammer kimis is referring to. A reversal upwards coming? Who knows. The hammer does create the potential for a SonicR long setup.
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  • #22,169
  • Jun 23, 2011 12:29pm Jun 23, 2011 12:29pm
Quoting ericsagi
how does this work on a consolidation market ?
Isn't a "consolidation" market just a ranging period, reflecting PA moves up/down as the market creates incentives for traders to go whichever way is opposite the way the market is going?

Now, consider that if the range is wide enough, then there is room for SonicR setups. It could even happen that SonicR setups occur for both long and short trades.

If you want to see this, determine for yourself when there were past "consolidation" markets. Then browse thru this thread for those time periods and see what trades occurred.

Regards,
-tah
  • #22,170
  • Jun 23, 2011 12:59pm Jun 23, 2011 12:59pm
Quoting Yojimbo
These two are yesterdays movements in D1 and H1.

Didn't trade coz I wasn't online but just out of curiosity I wonder how I would have traded here. Knowing me I would have placed a sell limit @ 1.4400 after that head and shoulder of H1 in other words would have waited for a retracement to 50%, which as we can see now has never happened. So the better choice would have been a sell stop at the neckline (= today's open). In that case where should I have placed the SL? (anything bigger than 20 pips is too risky for me...)

The best thing probably...
The best thing probably would have been to sell the break below that H4 engulfing candle. I should have.
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  • #22,171
  • Jun 23, 2011 1:58pm Jun 23, 2011 1:58pm
EU:

Late day interest! Since PA is in down trend, this could be a pop up to acquire shorts. No telling for sure. But if this is a sign of buying, there is plenty of time to the next London session for PA to go low again, and bounce.
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  • #22,172
  • Jun 23, 2011 2:02pm Jun 23, 2011 2:02pm
Quoting traderathome
EU:

Late day interest!
i was thinging few second before that - if PA now will make HH, will start thinking to close rest of shorts and look for long setup
and few seconds after that - boom

what was that? earthquake? nuclear plant? or somebody said somthing ?
  • #22,173
  • Jun 23, 2011 2:13pm Jun 23, 2011 2:13pm
ah... gues what . Right ! Greece again
  • #22,174
  • Edited 3:04pm Jun 23, 2011 2:15pm | Edited 3:04pm
EU:

Sent out Sonic Scout, SS ES1 = 1.4245.

I'm going with the down trend. Since only the US market is functioning, it is most easy to move price. So, my guess is that is what is going on.....price moved by US market to obtain shorts while there is no competition for those available as stops get hit. And the US market is not after just the shorting liquidity created by hitting stops. Likely beforehand, additional short orders were placed along the planned price move, especially near the end.

Edit: Added 2nd SS ES2 = 1.4255.

WARNING: Speculation.
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  • #22,175
  • Jun 23, 2011 3:04pm Jun 23, 2011 3:04pm
TAH, just few hours ago you almost sweared to stop that

My speculations.
there was hammer candle on H4 - reversal posibility.
PA started to show no desire to continue down and started to show some first signs to go up.
and than sudden news in favor of Euro. it could be like an gas on fire but could be not just speculations
  • #22,176
  • Edited 3:58pm Jun 23, 2011 3:08pm | Edited 3:58pm
Quoting kimis
TAH, just few hours ago you almost sweared to stop that
Stop what?

This is EU.
This is with the trend.
This was a whopping counter trend move before entering via SS, so I execised patience.
......and it is not even an asian session trade!

Sudden news in favor of euro? Sounds more like a frantic attempt to motivate traders to go long, so the market can take the short side as it lets the price rise when the buying starts. Nothing concerning the euro is going to be "sudden", unless it is when the market gives up on it.

Let us suppose, however, that the price will go higher. Only the US market enjoyed this spike up. As so often happens when the market moves outside the asian or London sessions, those excluded markets might work to reverse the price for advantaged positioning before the main move is supported.
  • #22,177
  • Edited 4:59pm Jun 23, 2011 3:23pm | Edited 4:59pm
The green area is one of the typical target area for this retracement based on EWT. Since I have two approx. equally weighed possible scenarios, I trace my stop (very rarely and manually, until I fall asleep ).

Edit1: My stop is set to 1.42476 currently. If it will be hit I will take some profit and will be happy. But then, if the PA will not go below 1.42188 and I'm still awake, I'm going to open another long, with a TP set to somewhere in my green box.

Edit2: We just have finished a nice bullish slingshot on M1 timeframe (and yes, when every pip counts we have to go down to M1 for confirmation). My stop is still unchanged and still may be hit.

Edit3: My local low was 1.42482 (0.6 pips from my SL). Now I'm waiting for a new local high above 1.42623, then, for a new HL.

Edit4: Now we have a new local high @ 1.42672, I'm waiting for a new HL, preferably not lower than 1.42560 (the only rule is that must not go lower than 1.42482).

Edit5: Since I'm tired now (here we have midnight in a few minutes) nad PA is walking slowly, nothing has been changed regarding my long pos. If anyone is interested in how this all story correlates with the SonicR system, I will make a short summary tomorrow on this for you (regardless of the outcome of this long pos). But pls indicate, otherwise I won't work on it.

See you tomorrow.
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Mind the gap
  • #22,178
  • Edited 4:44pm Jun 23, 2011 4:25pm | Edited 4:44pm
Quoting traderathome
EU:

Sent out Sonic Scout, SS ES1 = 1.4245.

I'm going with the down trend. Since only the US market is functioning, it is most easy to move price. So, my guess is that is what is going on.....price moved by US market to obtain shorts while there is no competition for those available as stops get hit. And the US market is not after just the shorting liquidity created by hitting stops. Likely beforehand, additional short orders were placed along the planned price move, especially near the end.

Edit: Added 2nd SS ES2 = 1.4255.

WARNING: Speculation....
EU:

Added 3rd Sonic Scout, SS ES3 = 1.4265.

We talked late yesterday about the hammer on H4. Such could be reason for a SonicR long setup to appear. However, I consider that we just had it......out of season, so to speak, but almost 150 pips worth. PA might drift higher, maybe to 1.4288 area, but it seems reasonabl now that the next big move will be down.
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  • #22,179
  • Jun 23, 2011 6:03pm Jun 23, 2011 6:03pm
Quoting traderathome
Personal Comment:

I am disgusted with myself today, making rookie moves and mistakes.

Maybe I should try what Sonic is doing....just trade EU, just be more patient about entries.

With 24 closed trades this week, 19 profitable for 794 pips, I should not complain. But I am, because I am getting the feeling I am trading too many pairs, and trading too much, entering too soon, etc.

This may be it for the week for me. But whenever I do resume, it will be EU & patience.....give myself a chance to unwind.
Don't mention it TAH. I am the one that should thx 2 you. I learn a lot from this one. Let's warok it together again. BTW TAH the rule said is on London rite? Then when london close did you still op? Or the rule just dun trade on Asian section( but it is ok with both london and new york)?
Money Management and Patience is the Key
  • #22,180
  • Jun 23, 2011 6:42pm Jun 23, 2011 6:42pm
Well TAH and everyone. I know i am breaking the rule. But as my considerations. That EU making a lower high. That's y i sort EU.
Money Management and Patience is the Key
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