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Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected

  • #7,301
  • Jun 22, 2011 2:30am Jun 22, 2011 2:30am
tks
Quoting eyevoltage
Nice trade, David. A bit early for me, unfortunately.
  • #7,302
  • Jun 22, 2011 4:55am Jun 22, 2011 4:55am
waited for price to clear DP
Entry and Exits as shown
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  • #7,303
  • Jun 22, 2011 4:57am Jun 22, 2011 4:57am
Quoting david4u
waited for price to clear DP
Entry and Exits as shown
I had that trade set up but when the bar closed around 17 pips or so I left it. Nice one.
  • #7,304
  • Jun 23, 2011 4:55am Jun 23, 2011 4:55am
Feeling a bit bored today so thought I would pop in here and make a quick post on the action for me thus far. Three trades on EU - two winners and one still going.

The first trade at FO I jumped the gun on a bit. M5 divergence plus some buying that came in earlier near this level suggested a bounce up to pick up orders for London. I wasn't looking for much because of the M15 move overnight but held on as it tested the level again and then took pips quickly as soon as we saw a bit of selling higher up.

The second was a no brainer. M5 divergence at a flat BB extreme and strong selling coming in. Jump in and enjoy the ride. I trailed each M1 LH and took most profit at 50. I then exited the remainder when it failed to continue the move and we had a good bit of buying come in.

Trade three was simply a matter of patience. Didn't want to do anything but go short but no chances came up for a while which flattened the M5. So look for a pattern or a strong sign of order flow before jumping in. The pattern was no doubt obvious to followers of this thread but because it wasn't quite "perfect" I waited for a M1 LH to enter on rather than the straight break (though an entry on break and a new M5 LL could be seen as valid). You should also note the M5 doji off S2 with M5 CI coming down that hinted the move was coming sooner rather than later. Decent pips in the bank right now so I'll just trail this one too on M1 and let it go until it exhausts itself.

Cheers.
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  • #7,305
  • Jun 23, 2011 6:14am Jun 23, 2011 6:14am
A rising wedge where price culminated in a large harami across a 3-way confluence of the 13ema, xx50 and the mid-point level. A nice drop followed to S3 and my exit.
Attached Image
  • #7,306
  • Jun 23, 2011 6:21am Jun 23, 2011 6:21am
Quoting Auron112
Feeling a bit bored today so thought I would pop in here and make a quick post on the action for me thus far. Three trades on EU - two winners and one still going.

The first trade at FO I jumped the gun on a bit. M5 divergence plus some buying that came in earlier near this level suggested a bounce up to pick up orders for London. I wasn't looking for much because of the M15 move overnight but held on as it tested the level again and then took pips quickly as soon as we saw a bit of selling higher up.

The second was a no brainer. M5 divergence...
Nice trades, Auron.

  • #7,307
  • Jun 23, 2011 8:07am Jun 23, 2011 8:07am
Quoting Auron112
Feeling a bit bored today so thought I would pop in here and make a quick post on the action for me thus far. Three trades on EU - two winners and one still going.

The first trade at FO I jumped the gun on a bit. M5 divergence plus some buying that came in earlier near this level suggested a bounce up to pick up orders for London. I wasn't looking for much because of the M15 move overnight but held on as it tested the level again and then took pips quickly as soon as we saw a bit of selling higher up.

The second was a no brainer. M5 divergence...
Nice trades and analysis as usual Auron.

You have CII on your 1 min chart and I wonder how much weight you give to the existence or lack of divergence on this time frame when considering a reversal trade.
Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #7,308
  • Jun 23, 2011 5:25pm Jun 23, 2011 5:25pm
Quoting Ian
Nice trades and analysis as usual Auron.

You have CII on your 1 min chart and I wonder how much weight you give to the existence or lack of divergence on this time frame when considering a reversal trade.
Very little at this time, to be honest. I've tried a variety of indicators and oscillators on the M1 charts but have never really found they improved my edge. The only ones I consider somewhat useful are CII and EMAAngleZero but even those give too many false divergence signals for my liking. Where I do find them somewhat better is as overbought/oversold indicators but how much better is debatable.

So for now I usually just have something up on the chart that I'm testing but it rarely comes into play for actual decision making or even as additional confluence for taking the trade. There are some who find indicators on M1 quite useful but in my experience M1 is kind of a different animal and they don't offer much. Always a work in progress, however...
  • #7,309
  • Jun 24, 2011 4:48am Jun 24, 2011 4:48am
Here's my EU trades for this morning. Not the best of mornings, though certainly not bad, simply because of missing lots of potential pips rather than taking losses.

I missed the marked mid-FH short. A good potential reversal time but I didn't really like the PA on the M5 chart. The M15 did have a nice shooting star but stuck in the middle of traffic so not to my liking. Worked out though.

With that the M5 started to trend so I waited for another opportunity. LO provided it when it failed to push up and created a M5 doji followed by M1 trendline break and some LHs. I should have held this to 4200 but I tightened my stop on the marubozu and got taken out for 20. Still a good trade on small risk but 35 pips to be had if you didn't go as tight as me.

The next trade before 9:00 was a pass with news due up and the large M15 hammer standing in the way.

Following this we had the news spike and just a matter of waiting to see if it would follow through. It did but unfortunately I missed this trade. It was a bit risky however trading into DP/50/TOpen so not too worried bout missing out there.

Strong move so far and M5 BBs sloping so entering on good buying above T Open at 9:45 was a low risk / high reward play. I trailed the strong M1 move and exited as soon as we reached those levels and had a couple minutes of selling in a row. Why? Well, not only do we have the 4300 and the MR1, but the VPOC from yesterday is also at the MR1 level. So being up more than 30 it seemed a good place to bank pips rather than continuing to trail. Had I trailed I would have been out on the LH that came after anyways, so really not much of a difference.
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  • #7,310
  • Jun 24, 2011 9:49am Jun 24, 2011 9:49am
Quoting Auron112
Here's my EU trades for this morning. Not the best of mornings, though certainly not bad, simply because of missing lots of potential pips rather than taking losses.

I missed the marked mid-FH short. A good potential reversal time but I didn't really like the PA on the M5 chart. The M15 did have a nice shooting star but stuck in the middle of traffic so not to my liking. Worked out though.

With that the M5 started to trend so I waited for another opportunity. LO provided it when it failed to push up and created a M5 doji followed by M1...
Auron,

nice trades and analysis!
what are those white x's on your chart?
  • #7,311
  • Jun 24, 2011 4:17pm Jun 24, 2011 4:17pm
Quoting pgd
Auron,

nice trades and analysis!
what are those white x's on your chart?
The white x's are some potential trades I didn't take. They are all mentioned in what I wrote, but I wanted to point them out on the chart.
  • #7,312
  • Jun 27, 2011 4:53am Jun 27, 2011 4:53am
What happened to acumen? did he go kaput? did anyone buy his ebook and find it useful? cheers
  • #7,313
  • Jun 27, 2011 5:14am Jun 27, 2011 5:14am
Quoting zortan
What happened to acumen? did he go kaput? did anyone buy his ebook and find it useful? cheers
He's alive and well and you'll find him at www.theforexfocus.com.
His name's Mike, by the way.
  • #7,314
  • Jun 27, 2011 8:31am Jun 27, 2011 8:31am
Quoting eyevoltage
He's alive and well and you'll find him at www.theforexfocus.com.
His name's Mike, by the way.
ev,

is that site run by acumen or is he just a member who posts there?
if so, by what nick does he go there?

thanks.
  • #7,315
  • Jun 27, 2011 8:57am Jun 27, 2011 8:57am
Quoting pgd
ev,

is that site run by acumen or is he just a member who posts there?
if so, by what nick does he go there?

thanks.
The site is run by acumen. His real name is Mike and that's the name he uses on the site.
  • #7,316
  • Jun 28, 2011 1:44am Jun 28, 2011 1:44am
Quoting eyevoltage
The site is run by acumen. His real name is Mike and that's the name he uses on the site.
Thanks, ev.
  • #7,317
  • Jun 29, 2011 6:02am Jun 29, 2011 6:02am
Haven't posted for a while, having been busy elsewhere etc.

This is a break of a short pull-back TL right on the confluence of the 13ema and the xx00 psych-line. One of those opportunities where everything falls into place.
Attached Image
  • #7,318
  • Jun 29, 2011 7:15am Jun 29, 2011 7:15am
This is one very similar to the one on EU earlier, only this one didn't work out. As one can see, there was a bullish flag and price touching base at a lovely 3-way confluence (R2, 13ema and the lower TL). Price DID break out northwards, but the action broke down quite dramatically back to R2. A break-even exit.
Attached Image
  • #7,319
  • Jun 29, 2011 8:58am Jun 29, 2011 8:58am
Quoting eyevoltage
This is one very similar to the one on EU earlier, only this one didn't work out. As one can see, there was a bullish flag and price touching base at a lovely 3-way confluence (R2, 13ema and the lower TL). Price DID break out northwards, but the action broke down quite dramatically back to R2. A break-even exit.
hi ev,

thanks for posting a trade that didn't work out.
they provide lessons to learn as well.

upon scrutiny, i noticed, this long was taken against bearish divergence.

cheers.
  • #7,320
  • Jun 29, 2011 9:08am Jun 29, 2011 9:08am
Quoting pgd
hi ev,

thanks for posting a trade that didn't work out.
they provide lessons to learn as well.

upon scrutiny, i noticed, this long was taken against bearish divergence.

cheers.
No problem, pg. I also noticed afterwards that price turned after failing to break through the xx25 psych-line, and I don't use that or the xx75 lines.

I like simple charts...easy to read. However, with K.I.S.S., one has to sacrifice greater detail some of the time, unfortunately. One can't have everything, I suppose!
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