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  • #470,081
  • Jun 23, 2011 3:02am Jun 23, 2011 3:02am
Quoting PayTheLimit
lower lip test...close below and I'll have a can of worms...bbl, gl, PTL
saved by the bell, steak it is
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #470,082
  • Jun 23, 2011 3:03am Jun 23, 2011 3:03am
Quoting PayTheLimit
lower lip test...close below and I'll have a can of worms...bbl, gl, PTL
Can of worms ...

How does that work ?

2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #470,083
  • Jun 23, 2011 3:03am Jun 23, 2011 3:03am
mornin' pretty choppy huh?

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  • #470,084
  • Jun 23, 2011 3:07am Jun 23, 2011 3:07am
Quoting KiwiTrada
Yes au eu almost identical twin try at invert hammer ( munted), could only get 1 small entry AU 5573
looking good, but girls all over the place, might manual manage, dont need another long night, just recieved govt report, our home demolish, whole neighborhood demolish, bit down tonight
cable try join need to succed should help my littlescalp
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #470,085
  • Jun 23, 2011 3:08am Jun 23, 2011 3:08am
Quoting sintelion
Considering that the down move (currently) stopped right on the 50% of the move from 4070 to 4440, don't you consider the chance of the downmove to be just a retracement before higher move up?

just asking newbie questions, nevermind me if you don't feel like explaining
Very valid observation.

From a strictly retracement perspective you are right to look for a continuation on a 50% ret. However, if you put this in the context of S/R and especially in a trend context (LH and LL) that 50% can be a continuation if you are in a trend (momentum line) or a stay on the sidelines until last high hold signal, if it is broken against the trend.

Since the range you mentioned is made with daily swings we have LL and LH in daily and is coming from a rejection of daily R the odds are that 50% becoming a continuation line (momentum line when rejected back down)....

In any case that a very broad view, but is very valid to pay attention to that 50% as reference... now you have to take a side and thats when retracements become irrelevant and you need FA or S/R or whatever you are using to take a side.

NP mate, that was a good and relevant question and hopefully can trigger a healthy debate for others...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #470,086
  • Jun 23, 2011 3:11am Jun 23, 2011 3:11am
So.. We have a stronger US dollar based on what Bernanke said?
  • #470,087
  • Jun 23, 2011 3:12am Jun 23, 2011 3:12am
Quoting KiwiTrada
cable try join need to succed should help my littlescalp

2nd try
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  • #470,088
  • Jun 23, 2011 3:18am Jun 23, 2011 3:18am
Quoting jeremyyn
So.. We have a stronger US dollar based on what Bernanke said?
yes, no direct QE threads and Europe's turmoil, fits the picture atm I think, now waiting for a rejection of Greece's budget plan and few days later we can all be USD-Bear's again
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #470,089
  • Edited 3:23am Jun 23, 2011 3:20am | Edited 3:23am
Quoting sisse
Very valid observation.

From a strictly retracement perspective you are right to look for a continuation on a 50% ret. However, if you put this in the context of S/R and especially in a trend context (LH and LL) that 50% can be a continuation if you are in a trend (momentum line) or a stay on the sidelines until last high hold signal, if it is broken against the trend.

Since the range you mentioned is made with daily swings we have LL and LH in daily and is coming from a rejection of daily R the odds are that 50% becoming a continuation line...
Apart from that we closed the h1 exactly on 61.8% (or 38.2) of 3966 low and 4695 high.
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Don't get mad, get even!
  • #470,090
  • Jun 23, 2011 3:20am Jun 23, 2011 3:20am
Quoting FibbinArchie
mornin' pretty choppy huh?
...atleast in my head... seemingly plagued by shitty ideas
Guard your pips jelously
  • #470,091
  • Jun 23, 2011 3:21am Jun 23, 2011 3:21am
Quoting KiwiTrada
2nd try
1 more try 3rd attempt Geppy little join Cable too, i think I get her this time or close 2/3 and watch
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #470,092
  • Jun 23, 2011 3:21am Jun 23, 2011 3:21am
Guys, have an eye on the green trendline.
BTW this area has been a center of rejection in the past.
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  • #470,093
  • Jun 23, 2011 3:22am Jun 23, 2011 3:22am
Quoting sisse
Very valid observation.

From a strictly retracement perspective you are right to look for a continuation on a 50% ret. However, if you put this in the context of S/R and especially in a trend context (LH and LL) that 50% can be a continuation if you are in a trend (momentum line) or a stay on the sidelines until last high hold signal, if it is broken against the trend.

Since the range you mentioned is made with daily swings we have LL and LH in daily and is coming from a rejection of daily R the odds are that 50% becoming a continuation line...
Thanks for the clarification. My observation was based on both the fact that we get a 50% and that we are re-testing (and possibly validating) a trendline (chart attached). Furthermore, the 4250-4270 area has been (at least on my charts) one of the most important ones in play in last few days.
So, generally, I would be waiting for possible hl and hh so I can long towards 4350->4415->4470.
I was just asking, since most of the people keep claiming its a strong bear, while on my chart I see a still-undecided-direction that could easily form a strong upmove as well
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #470,094
  • Jun 23, 2011 3:25am Jun 23, 2011 3:25am
Quoting TzarPips
...atleast in my head... seemingly plagued by shitty ideas
hmm, pull up a fib of the drop from london open and scalp near term s and r, is my plan when it's like this, even if we found a near term base and it's not gonna break lower to continue, the likelihood is that it will take some time to do an intraday reversal for a correction...

edit - st bulls need to hold above 85...
  • #470,095
  • Jun 23, 2011 3:33am Jun 23, 2011 3:33am
Quoting KiwiTrada
1 more try 3rd attempt Geppy little join Cable too, i think I get her this time or close 2/3 and watch

awwww geppy come cable come, bloody au superglue mongrel, hurry up
i rather read book with no words
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #470,096
  • Jun 23, 2011 3:34am Jun 23, 2011 3:34am
It seemed to be a strong bear and also had that in mind for today, but now there is a 1h green candle and some logic support here as well (50%).

Gonna withdraw my weekly salary first
  • #470,097
  • Jun 23, 2011 3:38am Jun 23, 2011 3:38am
just bearish looking consolidation on m5 with range contraction atm, waiting on break and direction...

lower st mofu @77 has capped so far since the drop...
  • #470,098
  • Jun 23, 2011 3:38am Jun 23, 2011 3:38am
Quoting stulic
Apart from that we closed the h1 exactly on 61.8% of 4073 low 4441 high.
I will only give you my 2 cents.

Just pay attention on not making the mistake of trying to catch big fish with a small boat. Despite what side you take in this trade, don't forget that this is a daily range so you are not going to see a straight line to any side in H1 so that H1 close on 61.8% can be v relevant or irrelevant depending on what the market is doing in a correlated smaller timeframe (and IMO that is not H1 in this particular moment)

Sure you can refine your entry via H1 but you need to leave a good "breathing room" try to find a more relevant timeframe (h4 for example in the daily swing you are talking) to get in sync with current move (for S/R or indicators or whatever).

Finally I wouldn't recommend "blind entries" a close above/below, a touch, etc on a retrace of a daily range if you don't have a lot of experience and have very strong directional and trading skills. No need to catch the ultimate tick down/up so don't be a dick for a tick, sacrifice a few ticks profit in order to reduce risk with a more conservative entry after your criteria for a trade has been met

In any case, good luck in you decision, "plenty"of time for next H4 and the first employment related numbers after FED yesterday will be something to pay attention to.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #470,099
  • Jun 23, 2011 3:42am Jun 23, 2011 3:42am
Quoting sisse
Very valid observation.

From a strictly retracement perspective you are right to look for a continuation on a 50% ret. However, if you put this in the context of S/R and especially in a trend context (LH and LL) that 50% can be a continuation if you are in a trend (momentum line) or a stay on the sidelines until last high hold signal, if it is broken against the trend.

Since the range you mentioned is made with daily swings we have LL and LH in daily and is coming from a rejection of daily R the odds are that 50% becoming a continuation line...

Hi Sisse,

very good, as always.

I have the recent area as a kind of Mofu. At 4285 I have the 50% retr. of the upmove from 23rd May to the top at 469x, and at 4258 the 50% retr. of the move from 469x to 4073

The first 50% line was taken out with a single 5min candle with a lot of momentum. Now we are stuck in between with a lot of overhead supply and demand right beneath us.

Looking at my chart I have the feeling that a break to the lower side my be more easy than to the upper side. Considering the bad mood right now for Euro I look for possibilities in my EW count, if a break down is reasonable.

I can achieve this by counting the waves from the top as 1-2, 1-2, 1-now in a 2. The following down move in a wave 3 is in such a constellation very powerful.

We will see soon enough.

Good luck today,

Markus
  • #470,100
  • Jun 23, 2011 3:45am Jun 23, 2011 3:45am
Quoting FibbinArchie
hmm, pull up a fib of the drop from london open and scalp near term s and r, is my plan when it's like this, even if we found a near term base and it's not gonna break lower to continue, the likelihood is that it will take some time to do an intraday reversal for a correction...

edit - st bulls need to hold above 85...
..you make nice point...well, i decided to little 'sideline play'...on that 50 line off this drop i posted a little bull...good thing it held..and i took sl to BE..its in alittle + . if it goes up to 90 might reload around 85 and if break even ASAP...meanwhile i'm waiting for better setups in abt 2hrs...(there'll be more coffee in my system= less shitty... )
Guard your pips jelously
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