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EURUSD

  • #469,981
  • Jun 22, 2011 10:42pm Jun 22, 2011 10:42pm
Quoting enterfx
USD/CHF remains in a lt wedge. Looking for a possible breakout at the 8550 area, but who knows. Divs are showing up.

Attachment
My Principle (one of many):
If its going up, its going up. If its going down, its going down. The only thing in between is the bounces and the only thing at the end is a reversal.

Logic:
1. Loss if it continues -1
2. Profit if it bounces +1
3. Profit if it reverses +1

Result:
-1 +1 +1 = +1

Risks:
1. Miscalculation of the size of the bounce (both for tp and sl)
2. Incorrect marking of support/resistance levels
3. Entry at inappropriate level and time
4. Glides through more # of s/rs than the # of s/rs it bounces from

Risk Management:
1. Small positions
2. Do not go for a very big move (only moderate sls and tp sizes)
3. Rely only on major support and resistances for bounces
4. Do not worry.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #469,982
  • Jun 22, 2011 10:43pm Jun 22, 2011 10:43pm
Quoting gatorinla
dont let the bounce get away from you.. but im thinking 420x.. its up to 4311 and 4346........ nothing wrong with being careful.. mofus are mofus. no matter where we are going. on any tf or any trend.
4311 seems to be holding atm... but pa atm points to higher. will post in a sec
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #469,983
  • Jun 22, 2011 10:43pm Jun 22, 2011 10:43pm
....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart2.gif Size: 18 KB
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #469,984
  • Jun 22, 2011 10:47pm Jun 22, 2011 10:47pm
another 15 mins to a decisive major close
  • #469,985
  • Jun 22, 2011 10:48pm Jun 22, 2011 10:48pm
anybody on sell on this pair????
There is Time for Bull, and Time for Bear. and so be the Wolf.
  • #469,986
  • Jun 22, 2011 10:50pm Jun 22, 2011 10:50pm
Quoting bdsilvano
anybody on sell on this pair????
Why do you think its going down since morning?
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #469,987
  • Jun 22, 2011 10:50pm Jun 22, 2011 10:50pm
Quoting gatorinla
but pa atm points to higher
here's where I lose you gat. why does the pa point higher? I see nothing (pa wise) on my chart, except support right around here.
  • #469,988
  • Jun 22, 2011 10:53pm Jun 22, 2011 10:53pm
Quoting gatorinla
4311 seems to be holding atm... but pa atm points to higher. will post in a sec
#1 bull ........lm 4313.7 m 4317.3 um4321.1 uum 4324.7... we missed 4276.5 and 4280 atm... pa is respecting 4276.5 levels.. so 4215.5 may be the one or in the sequence, 4327.5

we stopped one level to the 1000th of a pip above the 4276.5 target. anway pa usually hits the mid of a bounce target min in this case 4317.3.. we will c.. its above the sequence # at 4215.5
we usually bounce.. to the mid.. but it dont mean we will. strong loves make the rules.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #469,989
  • Jun 22, 2011 10:53pm Jun 22, 2011 10:53pm
4311 giving way at 00est
  • #469,990
  • Jun 22, 2011 10:54pm Jun 22, 2011 10:54pm
Quoting bdsilvano
anybody on sell on this pair????
something in the making, but too much support around here for me

waiting breach or London whichever first
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #469,991
  • Jun 22, 2011 10:58pm Jun 22, 2011 10:58pm
Quoting gatorinla
#1 bull ........lm 4313.7 m 4317.3 um4321.1 uum 4324.7... we missed 4276.5 and 4280 atm... pa is respecting 4276.5 levels.. so 4215.5 may be the one or in the sequence, 4327.5

we stopped one level to the 1000th of a pip above the 4276.5 target. anway pa usually hits the mid of a bounce target min in this case 4317.3.. we will c.. its above the sequence # at 4215.5
we usually bounce.. to the mid.. but it dont mean we will. strong loves make the rules.
  • #469,992
  • Jun 22, 2011 10:59pm Jun 22, 2011 10:59pm
Right on. but a wedge is a wedge and so are divergences. worth keeping an eye on...



Quoting Chicky
My Principle (one of many):
If its going up, its going up. If its going down, its going down. The only thing in between is the bounces and the only thing at the end is a reversal.

Logic:
1. Loss if it continues -1
2. Profit if it bounces +1
3. Profit if it reverses +1

Result:
-1 +1 +1 = +1

Risks:
1. Miscalculation of the size of the bounce (both for tp and sl)
2. Incorrect marking of support/resistance levels
3. Entry at inappropriate level and time
4. Glides through more # of s/rs than the # of s/rs it bounces...
  • #469,993
  • Jun 22, 2011 11:02pm Jun 22, 2011 11:02pm
Quoting gatorinla
#1 bull ........lm 4313.7 m 4317.3 um4321.1 uum 4324.7... we missed 4276.5 and 4280 atm... pa is respecting 4276.5 levels.. so 4215.5 may be the one or in the sequence, 4327.5

we stopped one level to the 1000th of a pip above the 4276.5 target. anway pa usually hits the mid of a bounce target min in this case 4317.3.. we will c.. its above the sequence # at 4215.5
we usually bounce.. to the mid.. but it dont mean we will. strong loves make the rules.
we may be attracted to 4343 just below 4347..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #469,994
  • Jun 22, 2011 11:02pm Jun 22, 2011 11:02pm
Quoting Magix
A chart that might be worthy of a ponder...

I have always measured moves by means of a moving average cross, and typically watch for the 100 pip magic number. Given yesterdays weak movement, we have exceeded this by only a mere 20 pips and just happened to happen during the no session-Chino cross over...

Now, when we see one of these as well as a directional shift, long chart to short chart, which I measure by another EMA...we typically see a retest of the daily trend EMA to see if it was a bullshit shake on the weaks or gives the other sessions...
Not a single hologram or fractal pattern in it? I don't think we'll start to worry about you just yet.

Interestingly, right now, if price were to shoot straight up from here, I'd roll long at around 38, not too far different than your region. Before some major algorithm replacement in April/May, I used, effectively, ema crosses as well, as you might remember. That roll line isn't an ema per se, but might as well be, and could be; it's just a little faster in getting back to price when a steady trend leaves it, and the emas, in the dust.

Now, the cross is price, confirmed by the slope and position of one of a family of different "speed" trigger filters (filter, ema, non lag, Hull: at the end o' day, they're all just species of moving averages with different coefficients). That keeps *most* of the multiple crossing trades out, although like yesterday, there were more trades than embarrassment permits me to say.

Reason for that change was opinion that there were going to be more days where price moves lots of pips in very few seconds, and waiting for ema crosses can and does cost a huge amount in those cases.

But, cut through the fancy analytics, and it all behaves pretty much like a 720 minute ema being crossed by, say, a 30 minute or less. It's just that, when the sh!t hits the fan, you don't have to sit around and wait for a cross to chase the price.
  • #469,995
  • Jun 22, 2011 11:04pm Jun 22, 2011 11:04pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
referring to a bounce.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #469,996
  • Jun 22, 2011 11:09pm Jun 22, 2011 11:09pm
Quoting gatorinla
we may be attracted to 4343 just below 4347..
I am looking at 43387.. close enough I guess. I expect a min bounce there, as I didnt get a proper close below 4298
  • #469,997
  • Jun 22, 2011 11:10pm Jun 22, 2011 11:10pm
intraday projected...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart2.gif Size: 18 KB
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #469,998
  • Jun 22, 2011 11:11pm Jun 22, 2011 11:11pm
just closed half.. going to get some rest. pendings set @ 4338 and 4377
  • #469,999
  • Jun 22, 2011 11:11pm Jun 22, 2011 11:11pm
If bonds crash (as Mr Bond - Billy Gross predicts), which would drive rates up, then is this dollar positive?

This would seem perverse as in Greece, there is only a VERY small group willing to lend to a dead bond.

So even though 30% interest is attractive, it takes a strong stomach to lend into that.

Now the FED hates high interest rates = QE power 'n' to drive rates back down. This would be dollar negative, right?

So which is it?

  • #470,000
  • Jun 22, 2011 11:12pm Jun 22, 2011 11:12pm
Quoting sisse
Yeap agree,on the TA side everything is getting upside down too, last level to clear the wave up is 1.433x (last break out point) . Daily Highs rejection in play from Resistance, H4 breaching LL but still in HH so I am looking for today close and a pullback in H4 and failure on daily close tomorrow to position shorts with the trend.

This last wave up (daily) was very deep and bears will require a big push to break to LL again but still is a play with the trend. Momentum line for a real move down is 1.428x so plenty of time if the wave down is...
my monthly close was a bearish piercing. its funny we reversed at the monthly close at 4421 area a few times.. then failed to hit my monthly pp by 4 pips.. its funny the monthly pp was the center of the mofu.. lets c how it plays out. mofus can reject an entire move, and often do.. i got the scares to prove it.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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