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Trading Made Simple

  • #5,821
  • Jun 20, 2011 3:44pm Jun 20, 2011 3:44pm
Quoting Wbm
I have a question, I've read in Big E's comments that you should wait till the candle closes above the yellow moving average(5EMA) and the take the trade on the open of the 2nd candle, is that what you guys do or take the trade as soon as the TDI crosses? Because I have also read that the other indicators are just used as a guide and aren't used in the entry. And all you do is wait for the TDI to cross and take the trade on the new candle? I'm sorry for this I have read it but im still kind of confused. Also what if the price is about to hit a round...
As I said before ignore the bits at the start of that doc where he refers to waiting for the candle to close over the EMA, that rule isn't followed any more, we just take the trade on the candle 1 or 2 of the move, as soon as the cross occurs.
  • #5,822
  • Jun 20, 2011 4:08pm Jun 20, 2011 4:08pm
Quoting plamendp
To me it looks like big sharks took the opportunity (No big News, Greece drama tomorrow, etc.) to clean all stops inbetween 1.42-1.43 area in preparation for tomorrow plunge (Greek Parliament). That's just a hunch anyway.

Btw, what's the name of the pattern in red colored box? Very unusual (to me at least)? Do you see the same gap? I think today's rally was just to fill it up.. Just thoughts...

On a side note: any greek fellow here ? Any insight information?

Plamen
Thanks Great food for thought!
  • #5,823
  • Jun 20, 2011 4:21pm Jun 20, 2011 4:21pm
Great Post! Great advice!

Quoting DaveUK
Re the point about support and resistance levels, you really do have to draw your own. It's the only way to learn about them for yourself, and get a feel for how price reacts to them.

I come from a background of pure price action trading using a naked (ie no indicators) chart. In short, it's all about identifying longer term trends and shorter term directional bias, then figuring out how price will react to areas of support and resistance. That doesn't just include levels where price has found s&r in the past, but 'big numbers' (00s and 50s),...
  • #5,824
  • Jun 20, 2011 5:08pm Jun 20, 2011 5:08pm
the markets are currently looking quite slow as in not much is happening, well that's what its looking like on my screen a number of you guys are mentioning about news etc.. and dont trade / watch out for big news, could someone give me some information on where i can find upto date news etc..(news as in that just affects the forex) I dont care about normal news b4 someone says something
  • #5,825
  • Jun 20, 2011 5:08pm Jun 20, 2011 5:08pm
Does anyone have an indicator for Time Until Next Candle?

Also anyone currently in the + on E/U and U/J? you should be
  • #5,826
  • Jun 20, 2011 5:12pm Jun 20, 2011 5:12pm
Quoting xp3000
the markets are currently looking quite slow as in not much is happening, well that's what its looking like on my screen a number of you guys are mentioning about news etc.. and dont trade / watch out for big news, could someone give me some information on where i can find upto date news etc..(news as in that just affects the forex) I dont care about normal news b4 someone says something
There is a nice news calendar right here on Forex Factory, with some information on each new event coming up. Just set your time zone up on the calendar and you will be good to go.
  • #5,827
  • Jun 20, 2011 5:28pm Jun 20, 2011 5:28pm
[quote=DaveUK;4708909]Re the point about support and resistance levels, you really do have to draw your own. It's the only way to learn about them for yourself, and get a feel for how price reacts to them.

I come from a background of pure price action trading using a naked (ie no indicators) chart. In short, it's all about identifying longer term trends and shorter term directional bias, then figuring out how price will react to areas of support and resistance. That doesn't just include levels where price has found s&r in the past, but 'big numbers' (00s and 50s), plus fib retracements and daily/weekly/monthly pivot points.

There are particular levels that do exert a consistently strong influence on price: the previous day's high and low is one. By that I mean the previous 24 hour period - I use NY midnight to midnight. Keep an eye on that in the future and you'll see what I mean.

One useful technique is to look for areas of confluence... ie where potential s&r indications fall together within about 10 or 15 pips. Like you could get yesterday's high near to 1.6200 and also near to a daily pivot resistance level. Those together would indicate potentially very strong resistance. Stronger than if was just the big number on its own for example.

All of this is impossible to get onto your chart with TDI and Stochs underneath without it all getting too messy. I use a separate 15m chart (wit no indicators) with s&r levels noted. Then when I get an entry signal, I'll flick open the other chart just to check what's around before pulling the trigger.

...

Hi Dave and Crucial Craig (who also touched on the same issues) - I have been down this exact same path and I am honestly starting to have my doubts (about how 99.9% of us retail traders operate). In one respect, are not pivots, as an example, just another formulaic based derivation of previous prices, just like a dynamic resistance level such as a moving average?

We have all been making fun of all the different types of previous-price based and lagging indicators which congest our charts and minds beyond recognition, but if we put S/R from different timeframes, monthly, weekly, daily pivots, fibs - is it really any different!

Of course, anyone could put an opposing point of view and show many, many examples of how price touched this that or the other and immediately reversed for 100's of pips, but I can guarantee you it does not happen far more than it does. AND I bet there is an indicator that had the exact same signal.

Yes - it is all about probabilities - everyone tells us that - but what really creates that statistical edge, and why shouldnt we all just take our candles off the chart completely and rely exclusively on the indicators? (I have actually done that with this method on a live account - and I don't think it detracted from my results at all.)

Maybe, if we have too many conflicting signals from the million different permeatations of price we would not ever enterrd (we have all heard that too - right)?

Maybe, that might actually be a good thing, as 99.9% of us probably will probably not money in the long run anyway.

The question I dont think we will ever answer is:
"Where do we draw the line?"

I hope you all get my point and take this in the spirit in which it was intended. This is only designed to provoke some healthy introspect. I would love for every one of us to make money - and I truly believe that this method does cut thru a lot of the crap, but I am honestly starting to wonder...
  • #5,828
  • Edited 6:23pm Jun 20, 2011 6:11pm | Edited 6:23pm
[quote=hawaii5000;4709386]
Quoting DaveUK
Re the point about support and resistance levels, you really do have to draw your own. It's the only way to learn about them for yourself, and get a feel for how price reacts to them.

I come from a background of pure price action trading using a naked (ie no indicators) chart. In short, it's all about identifying longer term trends and shorter term directional bias, then figuring out how price will react to areas of support and resistance. That doesn't just include levels where price has found s&r in the past, but 'big numbers'...
Amen, brotha. The thing is I think a lot of traders DO trade off pivot points, as opposed to some random MA. People use MA's of all types and sizes, but when it comes to Pivot Points, there are only so many, and most everyone uses the same #s for these.

You definitely make a good point - I think the only difference is that a LOT of people are looking at THESE lagging indicators (Pivot Points), which makes them a little different then a MA or something similar. Do the pivot points tell us which direction price will go? No, I don't think so. What I do think though is that a lot of other people will be unsure of the market's direction at this point, so we can assume any strong trends will likely lose some strength due to psychological factors for many of the traders causing said trend.

I'm still not a professional trader (far from it), this is just my 2 cents. I would like to hear more discussion on what people think should be used in regards to S/R discretion when trading TMS.
Enter Signature
  • #5,829
  • Jun 20, 2011 6:24pm Jun 20, 2011 6:24pm
I use to draw so many lines on my chart it was ridiculous. Now I just look up and left for resistance or down and left for support. Again following Big E's recommendation. I only look for support and resistance on the timeframe I am trading.It has been working pretty good so far. However I also only look for 30-50 pips per trade. Like big E says keep it simple. At first it was hard to shed the multiple time frames and pivots that I was so use to using. But like one guy in this room says he doesnt use any indicators just price action- maybe one day I can achive that level of trading.

Freebeans
  • #5,830
  • Jun 20, 2011 6:39pm Jun 20, 2011 6:39pm
Yea I realised that and thought ohh, sorry for not reading it earlier. Thanks for your help. It makes more sense now and I hope it works for me

Quoting 2scoops
As I said before ignore the bits at the start of that doc where he refers to waiting for the candle to close over the EMA, that rule isn't followed any more, we just take the trade on the candle 1 or 2 of the move, as soon as the cross occurs.
  • #5,831
  • Jun 20, 2011 7:17pm Jun 20, 2011 7:17pm
Anyone in either of these? Both Short.

Got in 1.5 hours ago on USDCHF, .5 hours ago on Gold.
Enter Signature
  • #5,832
  • Jun 20, 2011 7:32pm Jun 20, 2011 7:32pm
Hearing rumors that on July 15 the trading of metals in Forex in US markets would end. Anyone else hear this rumor.

Freebeans
  • #5,833
  • Jun 20, 2011 7:32pm Jun 20, 2011 7:32pm
Quoting Maverick731
Does anyone have an indicator for Time Until Next Candle?
There's a b-clock indicator on page 7 of the paperclip attachments up top.
My favorite crochet hook is size J. It's a J-Hook!
  • #5,834
  • Jun 20, 2011 7:35pm Jun 20, 2011 7:35pm
Quoting freebeans
Hearing rumors that on July 15 the trading of metals in Forex in US markets would end. Anyone else hear this rumor.

Freebeans
Not a rumor. I got an email notification from my broker; everybody has to be out of all open metals positions by then.
My favorite crochet hook is size J. It's a J-Hook!
  • #5,835
  • Jun 20, 2011 7:44pm Jun 20, 2011 7:44pm
Quoting littlebunny
Not a rumor. I got an email notification from my broker; everybody has to be out of all open metals positions by then.
Called my broker and they wouldnt confirm or deny. Actually just spoke to after hours support. Anyone know their reason for this.

Freebeans
  • #5,836
  • Jun 20, 2011 8:06pm Jun 20, 2011 8:06pm
Quoting gio.kele
waiting for confirmation, candle will close in 130 min.
if you are or were waiting for the next candle to confirm and enter.....you are too late....look at your chart. The next candle will be the third reversal candle.....no trade
  • #5,837
  • Jun 20, 2011 8:10pm Jun 20, 2011 8:10pm
Quoting freebeans
Took three trades last night. Two were winners for combined 89 pips one loser uj for - 11 pips although my chart says -14. I apologize about all the arrows on uj chart. but drawing these charts takes time didnt feel like doing over. All my trades were entered around 12 am est. My stop is always below or above prev swing.
I am pleased you were profitable, however not one of those trades meets the ules of this method. Entry is on first or second reversal candle if any later - no trade.
  • #5,838
  • Jun 20, 2011 8:21pm Jun 20, 2011 8:21pm
I opened this short for similar set ups in 4-5 pairs yesterday. nothing wrong with the set up. but they all stopped out. and I gave my all 300 pips profit last week in a single trade.
Attached Image
Demand is not one wants, but what one can pay for
  • #5,839
  • Jun 20, 2011 8:27pm Jun 20, 2011 8:27pm
Quoting roterio
I opened this short for similar set ups in 4-5 pairs yesterday. nothing wrong with the set up. but they all stopped out. and I gave my all 300 pips profit last week in a single trade.
you entered on the third candle....the candle was tiny, and you entered directly into support if you look just to the left.
  • #5,840
  • Jun 20, 2011 8:37pm Jun 20, 2011 8:37pm
[quote=hawaii5000;4709386]
Quoting DaveUK
Re the point about support and resistance levels, you really do have to draw your own. It's the only way to learn about them for yourself, and get a feel for how price reacts to them.

I come from a background of pure price action trading using a naked (ie no indicators) chart. In short, it's all about identifying longer term trends and shorter term directional bias, then figuring out how price will react to areas of support and resistance. That doesn't just include levels where price has found s&r in the past, but 'big numbers'...
Mate I understand where you are coming from, and I have the same thoughts at times. I am not a great believer in moving averages, but where support/resistance and trendlines come intto it along with round numbers I am. Technical analysis was explained to me as mass psychology.....everybody looks at them so they become self fulfilling prophecies if you like....the only reason they really exist is becasue we all look at them, therefore you are forced to take them into account when you enter a trade....its just a matter of us all trying to be on the right side of them when we pul the trigger.....I agree though....its very difficult to know which ones to take into account more than others....and it can be similar to having your screen overloaded with indicators.
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