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EURUSD

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#465,741
Jun 17, 2011 11:57pm Jun 17, 2011 11:57pm

fxjawn
Joined Jun 2011 | Status: UN-RE-TIRED | 12,773 Posts

Quoting Purple

Disliked

My broker is showing 23.14 this week for some reason..

Ignored

ill see what fxcm says

#465,742
Jun 18, 2011 12:02am Jun 18, 2011 12:02am

gsantri
| Joined Jun 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,429 Posts

Quoting Magix

Disliked

Always have a plan...

Something I learned years ago in the stock markets is that you can still be wrong, but by having some strategy or market understanding you won't have to always find yourself buying tops and selling bottoms...and if not prosper in market, at least not lose the farm on any single position...

Watching Volumes, sessions and range of motion can certainly keep ya in the good. Knowing that if you are long in a short market, where will be your next support level, or if we have dropped support, when would be the time to cover loss...

Ignored

Always enjoy reading your posts and charts.

The Master how are you..

I hope your health remains excellent. We still have much to learn from good people like you.

EU in the retracement range of 61.8 and 'the fity.
I prefer to see her down as well but.. will follow anywhere she goes.

Happy weekend.

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#465,743
Jun 18, 2011 12:34am Jun 18, 2011 12:34am

clc4x
| Joined Jan 2010 | Status: L. C. Chong | 882 Posts

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=398

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=398

#465,744
Jun 18, 2011 1:19am Jun 18, 2011 1:19am

fontu
Joined Mar 2008 | Status: Name real with real own way | 23,413 Posts

Morning . eu & usdx both in a similar condition , just a suspense if c ended or not & need more confirmation of breaks the upper & lower limits in red box. apparently though eu in bull at top & usdx bear set up but not likely they continue for unlimited time & so this time Monday to confirm it first & play next , continue more before a retracement wave 2 or retracement before big wave 3 in the direction of movements. and retracement if start next also thinking limited 38.2% to 50% fibs levels.
gu on support area & should be similar scenerio & but eu ,usdx reacted but gu was totally apathetic to any bull .
fontu

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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++

#465,745
Jun 18, 2011 1:31am Jun 18, 2011 1:31am

clc4x
| Joined Jan 2010 | Status: L. C. Chong | 882 Posts

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=398

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=398

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=398

#465,746
Jun 18, 2011 2:26am Jun 18, 2011 2:26am

prezd
| Joined Nov 2010 | Status: wham bam | 615 Posts

Quoting Purple

Disliked

My broker is showing 23.14 this week for some reason..

Ignored

i get that sometimes, also now have 23.14.59
but the last price quote is from 22.59

#465,747
Jun 18, 2011 3:12am Jun 18, 2011 3:12am

prezd
| Joined Nov 2010 | Status: wham bam | 615 Posts

Quoting infinitus

Disliked

LOL

Was nice to watch the spread at >Duka in the last 30 seconds.

Started with 1 pip, than 10, 14 and closed with 28 pips difference

Ignored

wow...
means your bid is almost at daily high, 4333.
that can really mess with your SL
you sure it's 28 pips and not 2.8 ?

i have 1.2 on their demo at close.

#465,748
Jun 18, 2011 4:10am Jun 18, 2011 4:10am

SirMcPip
Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,522 Posts

http://euobserver.com/9/32508

If anyone still believes that the EU is not in the breakup process.......Same propaganda at the end of the Third Reich and the Sowjet Union, the EU will be no different.

#465,749
Jun 18, 2011 4:13am Jun 18, 2011 4:13am

infinitus
Joined Jun 2010 | Status: zero | 20,603 Posts

As I described yesterday, the very high retracing move made it necessary to change the count.

Elliott pointed to the upside, that was sure. But I was surprised, that it did not stop at around 4220. So I had to recount and sometimes a count with a small likelihood gets the price. That was here the case. I think that a big portion of the EW-people waited for a final wave 5 down, but it was done already. It was a very tiny wave 4 and 5 nearly nobody would have expected.

Heads up to all the people here which get it right from the beginning. Some called 4320 this morning, some came even with higher targets. I wondered at that point.

With this move such high the bearish case is severely weakened. We have to drop now fast below 4220 to stay in the bearish case. If the bearish case stands, then we have seen a 1-2, 1-2 move from the top at 469x

We can run up to 4496 without losing the bearish case. Right now (if we count the move up as ABC) we have C > 1.27x A That is a good point to go south again. The 1.62 extension is around 4370

look at the first chart

The area around the top now is critical. It counts good on 15min and 60min TF.

Here is the 15min view:

look at second chart:

But on 30min we have the problem of a quiet extreme subwave 2 flat (in green 5), but that is tolerable.

On 4h chart the yellow C wave shows only two up bars. The second up bar is very tiny in comparison with its preceding bar. That would allow for an ABC count.

Well, one could make the whole move up since 4072 to an WXY, but I suspect it.

Maybe we have to change the count at the top to the following and allow for a small push higher at Sunday / Monday. This count even allows for a move down first on Sunday to around 4250-4240 to fulfill the flat. It can conclude earlier, but normally wave C of a flat teaches minimum the end of its wave A. Running flats are very rare (in a running flat wave C does not reach the end of wave A), so chances are high that we might see a push down first. Maybe a good opportunity for all shorts to cover.

Lets have a look:

look at the third chart

The 4h count would allow a wave 5 maximum of 4363. Since wave 3 was shorter on 4h TF than wave 1, wave 5 has to be the shortest.

4363 coincides with the C = 1.62 x A at 4374

Well, if we do not make a new high we keep wondering about the strange looking 4h TF. :-)

Wish all of you a nice weekend,

Markus

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#465,750
Jun 18, 2011 4:18am Jun 18, 2011 4:18am

mercy seat
Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Trader | 42,434 Posts

Hello traders! (?)

It seems quite clear that next major inside day move would be a corrective step to the downside. After all this uptrend will have seen its end soon.

I say corrective in nature at first ... because as long as it does not travel in lower 1.4165 - 1.4128 zone none of the two sides (up or down) cannot be ruled out ...

Upside limited soon ... even then when some ambitious news will be shed out to the public side ...

Maybe we see one more re-test of 1.4321 - 1.4341 / 51 or even 1.4379 - 1.4389 in case of an incidentally caused extention ... wenn überhaupt ...

Then this might be ripe for a move to the downside ... with 1.4254 - 1.4223 or even 1.4209 - 1.4178 in focus ...

Otherwise we must be aware that if downside will be limited by a move that cannot give us a clean cross below 1.4254 and without any confirmation at 1.4223 will leave us with vague arguments / ideas for further downside only ...

Elliottwise it points further up ... but market behaviour is not taking care of pure Elliott only ... not at all ...

Es gibt eben weit mehr und durchaus andere gewitzte Naturkonstanten. Auf die jeweils richtige Mischung kommt es an - ich bleibe dabei.

I will add a four hour chart with various SMA (24; 48; 96; 192) and highlighted red line is from EMA (50 periods) and some special settings for MACD in combination with two types of parabolic SAR applied on prices and on MACD ...

;-|

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2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts

#465,751
Jun 18, 2011 4:20am Jun 18, 2011 4:20am

infinitus
Joined Jun 2010 | Status: zero | 20,603 Posts

Quoting prezd

Disliked

wow...
means your bid is almost at daily high, 4333.
that can really mess with your SL
you sure it's 28 pips and not 2.8 ?

i have 1.2 on their demo at close.

Ignored

Hi Prezd,

if you play that late in the evening do that with only small lot size. At such thin markets I operate without SL.

I closed half of my short when the spike down to 4277 occured at 4280 (support zone below).

The other half I hold over the weekend. Thought that we could see another spike down but it did not happen. But as I said: only small position

The last bid at Duka is 1.42999, last ask is 1.43271

#465,752
Jun 18, 2011 4:22am Jun 18, 2011 4:22am

mercy seat
Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Trader | 42,434 Posts

Haa ...

Grüßt Euch Fini + McPip ... ich sehe gerade - dass ihr beiden auch gerade am Platz seid ...

gut gut ... Kaffee und Kippen erst mal ...

2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts

#465,753
Jun 18, 2011 4:23am Jun 18, 2011 4:23am

infinitus
Joined Jun 2010 | Status: zero | 20,603 Posts

Quoting mercy seat

Disliked

Hello traders! (?)

It seems quite clear that next major inside day move would be a corrective step to the downside. After all this uptrend will have seen its end soon.

I say corrective in nature at first ... because as long as it does not travel in lower 1.4165 - 1.4128 zone none of the two sides (up or down) cannot be ruled out ...

Upside limited soon ... even then when some ambitious news will be shed out to the public side ...

Maybe we see one more re-test of 1.4321 - 1.4341 / 51 or even 1.4379 - 1.4389 in case of an incidentally...

Ignored

Hi Mercy,

may san wir aber fleißig am Wochenende !!!

Wish you a nice weekend,

best to you,

Markus

#465,754
Jun 18, 2011 4:27am Jun 18, 2011 4:27am

infinitus
Joined Jun 2010 | Status: zero | 20,603 Posts

Quoting SirMcPip

Disliked

http://euobserver.com/9/32508

If anyone still believes that the EU is not in the breakup process.......Same propaganda at the end of the Third Reich and the Sowjet Union, the EU will be no different.

Ignored

Hi SirMcPip,

do you change your plans regarding selling at 4390?

Per my EW analysis 4363 could very well be the maximum at Sunday or Monday morning. If your conviction about the down is fairly high, I would not max out the entry.

Anyway, good luck and have a nice weekend.

Markus

#465,755
Jun 18, 2011 4:29am Jun 18, 2011 4:29am

mercy seat
Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Trader | 42,434 Posts

Quoting infinitus

Disliked

Hi Prezd,

if you play that late in the evening do that with only small lot size. At such thin markets I operate without SL.

I closed half of my short when the spike down to 4277 occured at 4280 (support zone below).

The other half I hold over the weekend. Thought that we could see another spike down but it did not happen. But as I said: only small position

The last bid at Duka is 1.42999, last ask is 1.43271

Ignored

Boa ey ... das ist extrem ...

Offengestanden, solch einen Spread habe ich seit mindestens zehn Jahren nicht mehr gesehen ... bei mir war es niemals über 7 - 8 Stellen hinaus gewachsen ...

Tja - die letzte Stunde ist nicht lustig eben ...

Wie inner Kneipe ... kurz vor Schluß gibt es meistens nur noch üble Laune ... es sei denn, man hat die Truppe richtig im Griff ...

2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts

#465,756
Jun 18, 2011 4:33am Jun 18, 2011 4:33am

SirMcPip
Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,522 Posts

Quoting mercy seat

Disliked

Haa ...

Grüßt Euch Fini + McPip ... ich sehe gerade - dass ihr beiden auch gerade am Platz seid ...

gut gut ... Kaffee und Kippen erst mal ...

Ignored

Hi Mercy, bin jetzt erst mal weg, neuen Rasenmäher kaufen, bis später

#465,757
Jun 18, 2011 4:35am Jun 18, 2011 4:35am

SirMcPip
Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,522 Posts

Quoting infinitus

Disliked

Hi SirMcPip,

do you change your plans regarding selling at 4390?

Per my EW analysis 4363 could very well be the maximum at Sunday or Monday morning. If your conviction about the down is fairly high, I would not max out the entry.

Anyway, good luck and have a nice weekend.

Markus

Ignored

Could very well be Mr. Elliott

....i will also look at the charts one more time over the WE. But your numbers look very plausible, thanks! Nice WE to you as well!

#465,758
Jun 18, 2011 4:38am Jun 18, 2011 4:38am

mercy seat
Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Trader | 42,434 Posts

Mensch Kinder ... da bin ich wohl noch nicht richtig wach gewesen ... hab eben den falschen Chart drangeklebt ...

Ach ... ich bin überzeugt ... den meisten hier fällt selbst das noch nicht einmal auf

Hello fellow traders!

It seems quite clear that next major inside day move would be a corrective step to the downside. After all this uptrend will have seen its end soon.

I say corrective in nature at first ... because as long as it does not travel in lower 1.4165 - 1.4128 zone none of the two sides (up or down) cannot be ruled out ...

Upside limited soon ... even then when some ambitious news will be shed out to the public side ...

Maybe we see one more re-test of 1.4321 - 1.4341 / 51 or even 1.4379 - 1.4389 in case of an incidentally caused extention ... wenn überhaupt ...

Then this might be ripe for a move to the downside ... with 1.4254 - 1.4223 or even 1.4209 - 1.4178 in focus ...

Otherwise we must be aware that if downside will be limited by a move that cannot give us a clean cross below 1.4254 and without any confirmation at 1.4223 will leave us with vague arguments / ideas for further downside only ...

Elliottwise it points further up ... but market behaviour is not taking care of pure Elliott only ... not at all ...

Es gibt eben weit mehr und durchaus andere gewitzte Naturkonstanten. Auf die jeweils richtige Mischung kommt es an - ich bleibe dabei.

I will add a four hour chart with various SMA (24; 48; 96; 192) and highlighted red line is from EMA (50 periods) and some special settings for MACD in combination with two types of parabolic SAR applied on prices and on MACD ...

;-|

Attached Image (click to enlarge)