Short Term Vs. Long Term Trading | Page 2 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

LAST (Long term Analysis - Short term Trading) 158 replies

Why Trading Forex is So Difficult - Long Term vs. Short Term 84 replies

Long term Vs Short Term Trading 72 replies

Short Term / Medium Term / Long Term? 3 replies

Poll to see Long term vs. Short term traders 9 replies

Attachments: Short Term Vs. Long Term Trading
Exit Attachments

Short Term Vs. Long Term Trading

  • #21
  • Jun 13, 2011 1:03am Jun 13, 2011 1:03am
Quoting the redlion
that is where i say you are wrong

PRICE IN FACT CANNOT BE PREDICTED.

the market is made up of Tier 1,2,3 banks, central banks, corporations (not necessarily trading but making multi million dollar deal, paying employees etc,) hedge funds, institution, brokers, government policy, professional and retail traders

even turist, people sending money to their families, people liquidating stock into cash,
options, swaps,futures, synthetics, deltas, not only spot forex.

so you are telling me price can be predicted?

however the behavior of price is...
okay, if somebody tells me they are going to war in iraq, then you cannot predict that price of oil will rise? and thus the currency of oil-exporting countries will rise? If somebody says that greece has so much debt that it can't pay it back, you can't predict that the euro would go down for months when that news were initially released?

But well, we are all in our own little boxes. So I let you in yours.
  • #22
  • Jun 13, 2011 1:13am Jun 13, 2011 1:13am
custos

we both indeed think alike i never said, fundamentals are to be discounted, one needs to be aware of what is going on in the world, and if your fundamental and technical analysis give you a bias

fundamentals create the type of sell or buy order environment

wouldnt it be better to see if your bias is in fact correct? how the market reacts in the now, and when is this factor irrelevant? the market will show you.

as i have said time and time again, fundamentals give you direction technical gives you timing.

however, there is a difference between skillful trading, and calculated GAMBLING.

this is a business, and a hard one at that, one needs to be nimble and adapt to the market follow the flow. not be rigid.

one needs to use everything at our disposal
the USD is the reserve currency and all majors dance to the tune of the dollar, sometimes is easier to see what movement is more probable by correlation analysis.

if you think continuation but the GBP, AUD CHF and others are hinting correction. it is safer to position yourself in an area of less riks to catch a correction, in other words sell the rallies not buy the dips.

you see my job as a traders is

1 to protect my capital
2 to follow the price


if i lose a trade, its ALL MY FAULT.
either

my ego got in the way
my analysis was flawed
or i failed to adapt to new market conditions, i was too rigid
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #23
  • Jun 13, 2011 1:15am Jun 13, 2011 1:15am
Quoting the redlion
custos

we both indeed think alike i never said, fundamentals are to be discounted, one needs to be aware of what is going on in the world, and if your fundamental and technical analysis give you a bias

wouldnt it be better to see if your bias is in fact correct? how the market reacts in the now, and when is this factor irrelevant? the market will show you.

as i have said time and time again, fundamentals give you direction technical gives you timing.

however, there is a difference between skillful trading, and calculated GAMBLING.

this...
whatever man, okay price cannot be predicted. Your way of trading is the best way there is.

I am tired of discussing the obvious, bye.
  • #24
  • Jun 13, 2011 1:22am Jun 13, 2011 1:22am
my bad custos, didnt mean to get you upset.

i was trying to have a rational conversation and exchange my ideas with you.

but i suppose a wise man should listen to others, and i will stay quiet and cede the floor now
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #25
  • Jun 13, 2011 1:30am Jun 13, 2011 1:30am
Quoting the redlion
my bad custos, didnt mean to get you upset.

i was trying to have a rational conversation and exchange my ideas with you.

but i suppose a wise man should listen to others, and i will stay quiet and cede the floor now
that's the problem redlion. you don't have any ideas of your own. you just recite the mantra's from fti's thread. i can see you exploring different things and ideas and perspectives, but it always comes back to the same nonsense dogma of that il-fated thread.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #26
  • Jun 13, 2011 1:35am Jun 13, 2011 1:35am
brings profits..... wont fix what is not broken but im tired of arguing that nubcake

chicky is a trader i have a lot of respect for so i WONT clutter this thread with the same ol' argument.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #27
  • Jun 13, 2011 1:37am Jun 13, 2011 1:37am
temporary profits. you find a way to keep those profits and i'll be interested. until then it's all just a capital game and when it all goes pear-shaped blaming someone for not having enough money to begin-with... well if they had the damn money they wouldn't need to trade. conundrum much?
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #28
  • Jun 13, 2011 2:09am Jun 13, 2011 2:09am
Quoting Chicky
Views on the benefits and strategies of longterm trading will be highly appreciated from those who have successfully switched from short-term to longer term trading.
I am closing out my 2nd year of fx trading. When I started out I was only interested in scalping. And I only traded E/U. Over time, that has changed. I still like to scalp fx majors and that pays well. But what I found is that I don't have the stamina to scalp, day-in day-out. Excessive screen time demands, boredom, no good.

I need variety. So I have evolved to include longer term trading strategies in my quiver. And a variety of instruments. I like trading on fundies and it is easier to trade other instruments, commodities, especially, based on fundies. (The fx majors and the index futures are a hft playground.) I get bored with fundies sometimes and then I might do some scalping. Or I might make a trade and not look at it for a week. Its all good.

I used to spend 8+ hours a day trading. Now, if I get that much screen time in a week its more than enough. I'm much better off. Healthier. Less stressed.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #29
  • Jun 13, 2011 2:18am Jun 13, 2011 2:18am
Quoting The Fool
I am closing out my 2nd year of fx trading. When I started out I was only interested in scalping. And I only traded E/U. Over time, that has changed. I still like to scalp fx majors and that pays well. But what I found is that I don't have the stamina to scalp, day-in day-out. Excessive screen time demands, boredom, no good.

I need variety. So I have evolved to include longer term trading strategies in my quiver. And a variety of instruments. I like trading on fundies and it is easier to trade other instruments, commodities, especially, based...

the thing with that is you are playing it both ways because you CAN. for you it is not that a higher timeframe or lower timeframe provides or removes an edge, it's that you appear to have an edge and can play it out any way that serves you. if the higher timeframes get a bit squirly and aren't providing the returns you would like you can always crank the frequency and go to lower timeframes, a bit like coming out of retirement to spark the fires of higher income before going back to holiday-mode.

is this a fair perspective on your trading? flexibility through ability?
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #30
  • Jun 13, 2011 2:45am Jun 13, 2011 2:45am
Quoting nubcake
is this a fair perspective on your trading? flexibility through ability?
Sure, ok, and thanks. Flexibility is good. But, for me, variety is essential.

I don't know if I could make generalizations like: "Trading longer tf is easier, less stressful, etc." or "Trading based on fundies is easier." People have to arrive at these types of conclusions for themselves.

But I can see that is where my path leads in trading. I have gotten alot more patient. I really just want things to be super easy and very profitable, is that too much to ask? So I wait for something to happen. Somethng = a calamity, an earthquake, a war breaking out, a rate hike, etc. And oil shoots up or the yen hits an historic low. And I want to be there to trade it.

My goal is to trade larger and larger and to only trade these big easy trades & I can foretell a time when I will not be amused by scalping and short tf chart analysis at all.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #31
  • Jun 13, 2011 3:15am Jun 13, 2011 3:15am
cool cool. i guess it's like any job where you just get over it and don't want to deal with it much anymore. the new toy feeling has gone.

do you have any opinion (or better-yet, evidence) on a resolution/timeframe that fundies make the most obvious of footprint? i.e. in my mind fundamentals will have a degree of impact on markets, and the ability to see the effects would be most obvious at a certain timeframe and as you move higher or lower from that timeframe the visibility of the impact on charts would be shaped like a bell-curve and become less visible or clear and becomes more of the so-called 'chart noise' the further you move away from the peak timeframe. this might be the same question, or perhaps a 2-part question, or maybe even not a question at all... but i also suspect that it's likely that each fundamental event / impact would be of differing size and therefore each event has it's own timeframe that best reveals this impact.

or to put it another way, how far away from the water do you need to be to actually perceive and recognize the ripples created by the stones dropped into the water, and are the rippled created different depending on the rock being dropped and therefore the best viewing distance is also different and unique.

purely curious since fundamentals are high on the list of things that make my eyes glaze over.

@ redlion : your posts continue to bother me, but not in the way you might think. the things you post about throughout the forum show that you are inquisitive and open to ideas, but from my perspective it's as though you have a reflex action where you resort back to the dogma and mantra's while there is a side of you that is being quiet and has a different opinion but just won't speak up. i sense that you are conflicted.

i'm probably bored and reading too much into it.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #32
  • Jun 13, 2011 3:38am Jun 13, 2011 3:38am
Quoting nubcake
do you have any opinion (or better-yet, evidence) on a resolution/timeframe that fundies make the most obvious of footprint? .....

or to put it another way, how far away from the water do you need to be to actually perceive and recognize the ripples created by the stones dropped into the water, and....
no easy answers and fundamental analysis as fickle as anything, maybe especially so in fx. As usual, one must observe and learn. One need not be passive, though; there are all kinds of things to be on the lookout for. But if you're not interested in fundies anyway, maybe its a deadend for you.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #33
  • Jun 13, 2011 4:31am Jun 13, 2011 4:31am
Anyone trading just on 4h or daily charts is going to miss to the best opportunities or take them at much worse prices & R:R than a trader watching 1/5/15 min charts.

Take the recent Euro sell off from 1.49 to under 1.40 . The trigger for this was Trichet saying that the ECB was not going to raise rates. If you shorted the Euro after the statement you got in around 1.4700 - 1.4720 area with less than 50 pips risk. If you shorted on a daily you got in at best 1.4550 with 250 pip stop.
  • #34
  • Jun 13, 2011 4:57am Jun 13, 2011 4:57am
Quoting jzw
Anyone trading just on 4h or daily charts is going to miss to the best opportunities or take them at much worse prices & R:R than a trader watching 1/5/15 min charts.

Take the recent Euro sell off from 1.49 to under 1.40 . The trigger for this was Trichet saying that the ECB was not going to raise rates. If you shorted the Euro after the statement you got in around 1.4700 - 1.4720 area with less than 50 pips risk. If you shorted on a daily you got in at best 1.4550 with 250 pip stop.
you are mixing news with fundamentals.

the ECB not raising rates is news. Greece being deeply in the red is a "fundamental" problem. The USA having crazy amounts of "debt" and an economy that is not growing is a "fundamental" problem.

A trader who trades dailies couldn't care less about these small news.
  • #35
  • Jun 13, 2011 5:08am Jun 13, 2011 5:08am
Hey guys,

I'm posting from a phone so my reply won't be as in-depth as I'd like it to be.

To answer the OPs initial question of short term vs long term, I'd really have to say that it depends on your objectives and personality. Some individuals crave the excitement and fast pace of a 1min or 5min chart, while others will swear by the Dailies. I don't believe there is a right or wrong 'timeframe' to select, but my approach is to have a hybrid approach, because my entry triggers encompass a wide variety of events, some which will play out during the liquidity thin Asian Session for example, while others will impact the pairing noticeably for weeks. Thus I tailor my timeframe to suit the nature of my entry scenario. One approach which I also like to employ is to use set-ups on a shorter time frame to establish a position with low risk in the direction/outlook of a longer term entry trigger. Doing the latter allows one to obtain some seriously outsized Risk:Reward ratios.

Making the transition from holding a trade for a day, to holding it for weeks is not something for everyone, but when you taste your first 1000 pip success, it makes it awfully difficult to look back. One should not limit themself to one timeframe only, as they would be missing out on a wealth of opportunities which can be capitalized upon. One thing I'd like to say is that when I say timeframe, I mean timeframe for determining how long I should hold a position. I do not trade the 5min, hourly or daily because the charts are not where I get my entry triggers. You can see everything you need to see on a 5min/15min chart by changing the zoom. Unless of course you are a chartist where OHLC would be important information to your trading.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx


PS. If you don't have an idea as to where price is going, and you're placing trades, are you really trading?
  • #36
  • Jun 13, 2011 5:17am Jun 13, 2011 5:17am
Just get the best of both worlds....

I look at a 15min chart and have a second method for daily / 4 hour.

cheers.....................
  • #37
  • Jun 13, 2011 6:15am Jun 13, 2011 6:15am
Quoting Custos
you are mixing news with fundamentals.
I wasn't talking about either news or fundamentals.

>> the ECB not raising rates is news

Its news and its fundamental because the interest rate differential is the primary driver in relative currency values.

>> A trader who trades dailies couldn't care less about these small news

And so considers moves of 900 pips just noise?

Everyone knows that Greece has an unsustainable amount of debt. But what does that mean for the Euro. It is a political decision. Japan and the US also have a lot of debt but can always just print yen/dollars so their debt is not a problem.
  • #38
  • Jun 13, 2011 6:29am Jun 13, 2011 6:29am
Quoting jzw
I wasn't talking about either news or fundamentals.

>> the ECB not raising rates is news

Its news and its fundamental because the interest rate differential is the primary driver in relative currency values.

>> A trader who trades dailies couldn't care less about these small news

And so considers moves of 900 pips just noise?
the 900 pip move is just a retracement of a 2000+ pip move up. well, partly I agree. But raising interest rates is just the effect, not the cause. Fundamentals for me are the cause of a central bank raising or not raising rates. If for example inflation becomes very high, that is fundamentals kicking in, cause the central bank very likely has to raise rates. Or if credit expansion is getting too overheated, they have to raise rates, or if tightening is getting an economy into problems, they have to cut rates. This is fundamentals.

Quoting jzw
Everyone knows that Greece has an unsustainable amount of debt. But what does that mean for the Euro. It is a political decision. Japan and the US also have a lot of debt but can always just print yen/dollars so their debt is not a problem.
you should read an economic book and find out what happens, if debt gets so high that bondholders don't think they can ever pay it back. no matter how much they would print, nobody would lend them anymore, except their own fate depends on them as is the case with greece.
I think a major opportunity arises once bondholders realize that US debt is unsustainable and don't lend anymore, then we traders have a good opportunity. Or once the republicans get into power and end all the spending, that would result in a good opportunity but in the opposite direction.
  • #39
  • Jun 13, 2011 6:46am Jun 13, 2011 6:46am
If that statement offends you then you need some serious time away from trading...

in fact I'd be happy to argue trading is gambling.. because theres not much difference between a professional trader and a professional gambler...

  • #40
  • Jun 13, 2011 7:21am Jun 13, 2011 7:21am
Quoting newyear498
If that statement offends you then you need some serious time away from trading...

in fact I'd be happy to argue trading is gambling.. because theres not much difference between a professional trader and a professional gambler...

well, gambling is the wrong word. A gambler is somebody who knows (or doesn't even know) that the odds are against him. Like in roulette, slot machine, lottery or similar things. Take poker and black jack, and you have people who can calculate the odds and are not gambling anymore, they are professional "betters". They only bet when the odds are vastly in their favor.

So I would argue that professional traders are professional betters, not gamblers. Only amateur traders are gamblers.
0 traders viewing now