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  • #460,261
  • Jun 12, 2011 9:25am Jun 12, 2011 9:25am
Quoting infinitus
Hi Kambooj,

hope you have a nice weekend.

My EW analysis goes hand in hand with your analysis.

4420 would be the center of the actual wave 3, a common place for a wave 4 to retrace. Minimum retrace target should be 4370.

This wave down has a strong possibility to accelerate down further more, since I am not able to spot a real good "point of recognition" in the various TF's.

We have already accelerated down. One can see it easily with pitchfork analysis. But we are possibly in a wave 3 of a primary wave down or in a primary wave C down...

Nice Analysis "infinitus"

1.4420 was a good support for a buy order but got penetrated then also 1.4370 hadn't last long but the big crucial support was bt. 1.4331/41 but again got crashed making a low price at 1.4322 before closing above bt. 1.4345/50 which leaves a mysterious start for tommorow new candle because another penetrate for 1.4331/41 and reteest of 1.4322 might break this price fast, so the only hope for the bulls is for the price to go above playing around 1.4400 level and a peneration of 1.4420 would be decisive later on...

Best Luck
  • #460,262
  • Jun 12, 2011 10:32am Jun 12, 2011 10:32am
Quoting kuroro001
Weekly chart still looks bullish to me.
When i see higher high, higher low and a close above last weekly open i can't short for long term...even though i must admit that this weekly candle is ugly.
A run towards 1,4800 is still possible.

I am just worried about the monthly chart.
both of those candles are a bearish piercing (monthly and weekly).. the weekly closed below the monthly last monthly close. its about as bearish as it gets w/o both being engulfed.

at the open there is some minor (major for the tf) support on a 1 and 3 h chart about 4329... (b/o # when closed only) we have already been to 4322. but we did close at 4347.

the b/o # on the 4/8h is 4340.. a open below 4329 just gives more gravity to the move. in other words its a lost chance to catch support until 426x/80 area. (candle support #s are less rigid then the ones posted earlier)
below this is the ones mentioned and the candle support at 4032/60.
add in pivots/tl/ma or the kitchen sink....
watch the daily candles and you got 2 black crows if the next one is red/black and closes near the bottom (close near candle low/small lower wick) it will just be another reason..
even with this, nothing is a sure thing.. but i would not trade against it if i cared about my accounts health. if i did trade against it. it would be scalps at those supports with a tight leash on s/l and b.e. early... a st confirmation candle would help.. (30 sec 1m 5m and b.e. it) b/o suppoerts are not precise #s.. wicks can pass them. the other #s are more rigid.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #460,263
  • Jun 12, 2011 10:37am Jun 12, 2011 10:37am
was a bit late to the party (better late than never) but still see quite a bit of downside potential -> will look to add to shorts on a pullback
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Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
  • #460,264
  • Jun 12, 2011 10:37am Jun 12, 2011 10:37am
Thursday we stood by the sidelines with two key risk events happening yesterday’ BoE and ECB rate decisions. Neither central bank changed its benchmark rate and all we came out with was the hawkish tone of ECB Trichet. This has markets looking for a potential rate hike in July and on the 5M chart we see an initial upward surge before a dollar rally that saw the pair plunge all the way to lows of 1.4477.
As for friday, we already had German CPI printing as per forecasts as we await a raft of data out of the UK as well as the important Canadian data in North American trading. Our outlook is tilted towards a continued dollar rally after the Euro failed thursday to sustain its two week uptrend. We are however looking for further confirmation of the strength of this bear run before we shift our focus to the downside.
  • #460,265
  • Jun 12, 2011 10:54am Jun 12, 2011 10:54am
Quoting FXRealMoney
Right, if you let such forex experienced traders post here their quality forex material then you'll have no work anymore, nobody would care about your posts when they can find other members who can talk just forex not live chat conversations all the time here...
Anyway, When do you trade dude if you spend each minute on ff forums, do you even have a live account?!, oh not even a demo
There is time to post here even when trading the 5m charts... 5m can be a long time. But, not everyone is down to that low of a time frame. 15m is my scalping time frame, and my normal mode of operation is the daily... Gee, yeah, I do have some free time to post here. Usually I am content with it being a good level of nonsense too.

Duplicate account? If so, I will be glad to report you to the mods.
  • #460,266
  • Jun 12, 2011 11:07am Jun 12, 2011 11:07am
I wouldnt disagree with you.

Most of the time I just judge for equality or relatively equal.

I once took a measurement using a engineering ruler on paper and really had a hard time finding perfect fibonacci relationship between time. The relations were mostly around 72%, 89%, 92%, 30%, some turned out to be 38.2% fibonacci

Glenn Neely, the famous Elliotician once said that after 25 years of studying the market seldom the market retraces to perfect fibonacci levels.

Quoting infinitus
The strange thing this time about counting on different TF's is, that each TF produces a (slightly) different view. Not 100% fractal. But somehow one is able to count downward impulses on all TF's. Maybe someone of you have an explanation for that. Maybe a reflection of "disbelieve", maybe a bigger scheme of a leading diagonal? I do not know. But soon enough we will see.
  • #460,267
  • Jun 12, 2011 11:08am Jun 12, 2011 11:08am
Quoting Venice
But, not everyone is down to that low of a time frame. 15m is my scalping time frame, and my normal mode of operation is the daily... Gee, yeah, I do have some free time to post here. Usually I am content with it being a good level of nonsense too.
Whut's next V....

You all gunna brag about chewing gum and walking at the same time too...
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #460,268
  • Jun 12, 2011 11:13am Jun 12, 2011 11:13am
Word on the street: Latest IMF attack was to trade/influence currency markets..

They dont want your credit card number, they want information with which they can make billions in currency/bond markets..
  • #460,269
  • Edited 11:26am Jun 12, 2011 11:15am | Edited 11:26am
Quoting gatorinla
both of those candles are a bearish piercing (monthly and weekly).. the weekly closed below the monthly last monthly close. its about as bearish as it gets w/o both being engulfed.

at the open there is some minor (major for the tf) support on a 1 and 3 h chart about 4329... (b/o # when closed only) we have already been to 4322. but we did close at 4347.

the b/o # on the 4/8h is 4340.. a open below 4329 just gives more gravity to the move. in other words its a lost chance to catch support until 426x/80 area. (candle support #s are less rigid...
Excellent analysis, concurs with sync pairs, buyers beware, if retrace is weak, support breach, will be blood across the board, I only add scalp until direction is confirmed. Positions built 9th 10th no lose, retrace stop profit, continuation very very nice profit.

Gator many sellers burnt last 4 weeks, they will be wary, sellers advantage, need this pair below 42 and hold, will be good for me, many weeks, months maybe, tired of scalp, need trend assist, if support hold, I have week holiday.

Kiwi Aussie, will take hit from chile ash, Kiwi will trouble sustain extreme high, reliant export agriculture aquaculture etc , tourism, high dollar very painful, disasters etc etc
Possible easy pips on table, even long term build position, worth one eye look anyway


Happy pipping
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #460,270
  • Jun 12, 2011 11:21am Jun 12, 2011 11:21am
WHY not buying above 1.5000 TP1 1.5700 and TP2 1.5850 and sell bellow 1.3950 and TP1 1.3680 and TP2 1.3400?!.

Quoting PhAnTi'
technical view :

Attachment

weekly still in downtrend, ( 3 Lower highs ) , unless we dont cross/close above 4830-4875 and 1.5000 level we r still in nice area to place some swing trades to the downside with stops above mentioned levels above.

Targets at least 1.35 and 1.29 area.
Might take a couple of months to get there of course.....wtf this is a weekly chart

On the daily develops a trend reversal bullish --> bearish , if a Lower Low gonna follow the Lower high next weeks, see chart.

Anyway (as always) the fundamental...
  • #460,271
  • Jun 12, 2011 11:22am Jun 12, 2011 11:22am
Quoting Magix
Whut's next V....

You all gunna brag about chewing gum and walking at the same time too...
Well, we all know that's just insanity... lol
  • #460,272
  • Jun 12, 2011 11:35am Jun 12, 2011 11:35am
Quoting KiwiTrada
Excellent analysis, concurs with sync pairs, buyers beware, if retrace is weak, support breach, will be blood across the board, I only add scalp until direction is confirmed. Positions built 9th 10th no lose, retrace stop profit, continuation very very nice profit.

Gator many sellers burnt last 4 weeks, they will be wary, sellers advantage, need this pair below 42 and hold, will be good for me, many weeks, months maybe, tired of scalp, need trend assist, if support hold, I have week holiday.

Kiwi Aussie, will take hit from chile ash, Kiwi will...
where are we gonna go.427x or first to 4282 and atempt 4295?.. . that level should indicate. 4382 may be rigid as well as 4366.5.. the ones who got burnt are traders who did not let go a loser. money to be made/lost both directions.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #460,273
  • Jun 12, 2011 11:41am Jun 12, 2011 11:41am
Quoting gatorinla
where are we gonna go.427x or first to 4282 and atempt 4295?.. . that level should indicate. 4382 may be rigid as well as 4366.5.. the ones who got burnt are traders who did not let go a loser. money to be made/lost both directions.
Hi Gator...

you mentioned sometime last year that there was a number on the EU that was in the 'center of the universe' or a central price for the euro. do you remember what that price was?? 1.35?
  • #460,274
  • Jun 12, 2011 11:56am Jun 12, 2011 11:56am
Hello, it is said that Monday is a holiday for the French and German bank. As I am not sure of the significance of the French or German bank affecting the liquidity of the market, may I know is Monday a day where I don't actually have to trade?
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  • #460,275
  • Jun 12, 2011 12:01pm Jun 12, 2011 12:01pm
Hey, I am all up for them updating the site and adding new features...

But really?

Why they gotta be like this?
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #460,276
  • Jun 12, 2011 12:02pm Jun 12, 2011 12:02pm
Quoting Magix
Hey, I am all up for them updating the site and adding new features...

But really?

Why they gotta be like this?

lol, hope the wife isn't in the vicinity...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #460,277
  • Jun 12, 2011 12:07pm Jun 12, 2011 12:07pm
Quoting Chuanjian
Hello, it is said that Monday is a holiday for the French and German bank. As I am not sure of the significance of the French or German bank affecting the liquidity of the market, may I know is Monday a day where I don't actually have to trade?
Well ... at least it is four major markets ... which are not with us ...

Australia, France, Germany, Switzerland ...

Two of them are G7 areas ...

Switzerland is a major forex hub as well ...

Draw your own conclusions ...



;-|
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #460,278
  • Jun 12, 2011 12:08pm Jun 12, 2011 12:08pm
Quoting Chuanjian
Hello, it is said that Monday is a holiday for the French and German bank. As I am not sure of the significance of the French or German bank affecting the liquidity of the market, may I know is Monday a day where I don't actually have to trade?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pentecost

It's a national day-off here in Netherlands too. But i will be trading
  • #460,279
  • Jun 12, 2011 12:09pm Jun 12, 2011 12:09pm
Quoting Chuanjian
Hello, it is said that Monday is a holiday for the French and German bank. As I am not sure of the significance of the French or German bank affecting the liquidity of the market, may I know is Monday a day where I don't actually have to trade?
Nothing for me till NY open at 8.30.. If their is some 60+ pip gap at open than might look into getting in at London noon or something .. but till that time I am just watching and listening to music..
  • #460,280
  • Jun 12, 2011 12:20pm Jun 12, 2011 12:20pm
here's my trade plan on the 4hour chart -> moving down in time frames will yield better entries but these are the general areas i'll be watching for shorts
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Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
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