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  • #460,241
  • Jun 12, 2011 5:05am Jun 12, 2011 5:05am

I see Euro/Usd having good support around 1.4341 and from here it can start going up again but if collpases below this level then continuing the journey down down.

  • #460,242
  • Jun 12, 2011 5:06am Jun 12, 2011 5:06am
"Avoid negative people at all costs. They are the greatest destroyers of self confidence and self-esteem." ~Brian Tracy”
  • #460,243
  • Jun 12, 2011 5:16am Jun 12, 2011 5:16am
Strength isn't about how much you can handle before you break. It's about how much you can handle after you break...
  • #460,244
  • Jun 12, 2011 5:59am Jun 12, 2011 5:59am
Quoting MisterTrader
Long, target 1.4553. See you there shortly.
Dead wrong. Unbelievable that 65 % of retail traders are on the right side of EUR/USD trend. One cannot even argue that there has been a major switch in speculators minds as the net non commercial positions according to CFTC figures are massively long EURO. I am pretty much pissed about this fact. Maybe the braniacs from London dealing desks shall switch on their stupid cerebrospinal fluids!

________________________________ Errare humanum est
  • #460,245
  • Jun 12, 2011 6:14am Jun 12, 2011 6:14am
Quoting Sunbrella
Hi guys, pls find attached a possible short term scenario for EU. If you are interested in what to expect on the higher timeframes, let me know and I will put up one or two possible scenarios.
Hi Sunbrella,

very nice and good EW. Keep it coming.......

Would like to see your long term count :-)

Bets to you,

Markus
  • #460,246
  • Jun 12, 2011 6:16am Jun 12, 2011 6:16am
Quoting PayTheLimit
does anyone how the open deleted thingy works, I mean is it a fixed number of charts it keeps in there, is it time based, or is it completely random?
Hi PTL,

do you mean MT4?

I think here are the last few deleted chart stored in chronology. The latest deleted is the first in the list.
  • #460,247
  • Edited 6:42am Jun 12, 2011 6:30am | Edited 6:42am
Quoting infinitus
Hi PTL,

do you mean MT4?

I think here are the last few deleted chart stored in chronology. The latest deleted is the first in the list.
Yea, thanks brother, I figured it out, lol, after a while. How's the weekend treating you. Say do you have a longer term multi year count, or do you not bother with the much longer term stuff?
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #460,248
  • Jun 12, 2011 6:53am Jun 12, 2011 6:53am
Quoting MisterTrader
Dead wrong. Unbelievable that 65 % of retail traders are on the right side of EUR/USD trend. One cannot even argue that there has been a major switch in speculators minds as the net non commercial positions according to CFTC figures are massively long EURO. I am pretty much pissed about this fact. Maybe the braniacs from London dealing desks shall switch on their stupid cerebrospinal fluids!

I wouldn't beat yourself up over it. Presumably your trading system said long. If you followed your rules their ain't much you can do. That's the nature of trading.
Mine said short so that's what I took. As to CFTC etc I do not concern myself with such things. Most of that s***t will catch more traders than pips.
Those that can, do, those that can't, teach.
  • #460,249
  • Jun 12, 2011 7:01am Jun 12, 2011 7:01am
Quoting Kambooj
I have in my charts a medium probability upside move to 4370-80 zone. At the moment 4420 has low probability for me.

Anyway you look at it, from a pitchfork perspective, straight trendlines and median lines are getting broken very quickly.

From a Elliot Wave perspective, this is a wave 3 of something or a super extended wave 1, and there is not a proper count that anybody could put on it, and that means one thing >> more down.

Since catching these motions are hard, my best advice is to put either a entry order to sell at 4290-4310 or...

Hi Kambooj,

hope you have a nice weekend.

My EW analysis goes hand in hand with your analysis.

4420 would be the center of the actual wave 3, a common place for a wave 4 to retrace. Minimum retrace target should be 4370.

This wave down has a strong possibility to accelerate down further more, since I am not able to spot a real good "point of recognition" in the various TF's.

We have already accelerated down. One can see it easily with pitchfork analysis. But we are possibly in a wave 3 of a primary wave down or in a primary wave C down (means: this could lead to brutal down-wards move), means, we can accelerate even more.


Here are two EW analyses on different TF's:
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 06122011 eurusd main count 30min.jpg Size: 69 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 06122011 eurusd main count 4h.jpg Size: 71 KB
  • #460,250
  • Jun 12, 2011 7:14am Jun 12, 2011 7:14am
Quoting PayTheLimit
Yea, thanks brother, I figured it out, lol, after a while. How's the weekend treating you. Say do you have a longer term multi year count, or do you not bother with the much longer term stuff?


Hi PTL,

either this (my main count)

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-M8RIpBP69w...count+2011.gif


or it gets more worse, than I switch to Prechters main count (which is right now my alternative count):

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xEWVNInb72...count+2011.gif


Doing EW without long term count is very dangerous, unless you trade only certain EW-structures. EW for me is not only counting but having a complete fundamental theory behind it. There I side with Prechter on debt and deflation.


Weekend is very nice with my girlfriend and doggies :-)
  • #460,251
  • Jun 12, 2011 7:19am Jun 12, 2011 7:19am
Thanks buddy, I'll take a look, PTL..
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #460,252
  • Jun 12, 2011 7:21am Jun 12, 2011 7:21am
Quoting PayTheLimit
Thanks buddy, I'll take a look, PTL..

Hi PTL,

I started a new thread and your post was the first one in it

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...36#post4684136

Do you know if I am violating any rules by doing this?
would be a great thread after some time...
  • #460,253
  • Jun 12, 2011 7:29am Jun 12, 2011 7:29am
Quoting Larseg
Hi PTL,

I started a new thread and your post was the first one in it

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...36#post4684136

Do you know if I am violating any rules by doing this?
would be a great thread after some time...
Lol. I'm honored. Funny you picked a post of mine that I wrote when drinking. Hope it makes sense, lol. Nice idea.
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #460,254
  • Jun 12, 2011 7:38am Jun 12, 2011 7:38am
Quoting PayTheLimit
Lol. I'm honored. Funny you picked a post of mine that I wrote when drinking. Hope it makes sense, lol. Nice idea.

Hehe, it made total sense

I think it can be a nice place after some time unless it gets ra$%ed.
Just have to see how it goes, thanks.
  • #460,255
  • Edited 8:18am Jun 12, 2011 8:03am | Edited 8:18am
Hi Infinitus,
Had a great weekend, and hope you did too.

Thanks for this analysis

This drop reminds me of a similar confusion that was observed when in December 2009 the EUR dropped. On the first drop it went from 5134 to 4219, and then it started to retrace to 4575.

I never forget, because I lost money,

that when the drop from 4575 happened and it happened very very quickly was that it completely retraced beyond my expectation downwards.

I have the same feeling here. Except that on Friday I took a day off, just not to get caught is a strong move, but back then I was on a buy

But now I know this move is going to go so fast beyond the 4000 limit, that will put everyone in dust.

I will have my entry orders set when FXCM opens today.

I think this move after it finishes in the 3700 zones is going to look like a First Wave Extension Trending Impulse Wave. Its definetly a C wave downwards. God Knows how far down it really wants to go



Quoting infinitus
Hi Kambooj,

hope you have a nice weekend.

My EW analysis goes hand in hand with your analysis.

4420 would be the center of the actual wave 3, a common place for a wave 4 to retrace. Minimum retrace target should be 4370.

This wave down has a strong possibility to accelerate down further more, since I am not able to spot a real good "point of recognition" in the various TF's.

We have already accelerated down. One can see it easily with pitchfork analysis. But we are possibly in a wave 3 of a primary wave down or in a primary wave C down...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H1.jpg Size: 84 KB
  • #460,256
  • Jun 12, 2011 8:10am Jun 12, 2011 8:10am
Quoting FXRealMoney
Right, if you let such forex experienced traders post here their quality forex material then you'll have no work anymore, nobody would care about your posts when they can find other members who can talk just forex not live chat conversations all the time here...
Anyway, When do you trade dude if you spend each minute on ff forums, do you even have a live account?!, oh not even a demo
Two user names, how did you manage that. They must give the real good traders two user names, maybe I'll get another one someday, who knows. Listen, I am not going to waste my time, or everyone else's anymore. You want to go on posting your signals, looking for chumps, go right ahead. In fact, look for a guy named cloggie, I think he is looking for a reliable signal provider.
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #460,257
  • Jun 12, 2011 8:12am Jun 12, 2011 8:12am
Quoting FXRealMoney

I see Euro/Usd having good support around 1.4341 and from here it can start going up again but if collpases below this level then continuing the journey down down.


...oh and thanks for the detailed analysis, I'll make sure to take it into account, trading my demo account...wait, I dont even have a demo account, infact I just write my trades on paper...papertrading...I'd wish you good luck, but you probably wouldn't know what to do with it...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #460,258
  • Jun 12, 2011 8:48am Jun 12, 2011 8:48am
Quoting infinitus
Hi Kambooj,

hope you have a nice weekend.

My EW analysis goes hand in hand with your analysis.

4420 would be the center of the actual wave 3, a common place for a wave 4 to retrace. Minimum retrace target should be 4370.

This wave down has a strong possibility to accelerate down further more, since I am not able to spot a real good "point of recognition" in the various TF's.

We have already accelerated down. One can see it easily with pitchfork analysis. But we are possibly in a wave 3 of a primary wave down or in a primary wave...



The strange thing this time about counting on different TF's is, that each TF produces a (slightly) different view. Not 100% fractal. But somehow one is able to count downward impulses on all TF's. Maybe someone of you have an explanation for that. Maybe a reflection of "disbelieve", maybe a bigger scheme of a leading diagonal? I do not know. But soon enough we will see.
  • #460,259
  • Jun 12, 2011 8:55am Jun 12, 2011 8:55am
Quoting Larseg
Hi PTL,

I started a new thread and your post was the first one in it

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...36#post4684136

Do you know if I am violating any rules by doing this?
would be a great thread after some time...
looks good lars, subbed...
  • #460,260
  • Jun 12, 2011 9:09am Jun 12, 2011 9:09am
Quoting PayTheLimit
Lol. I'm honored. Funny you picked a post of mine that I wrote when drinking. Hope it makes sense, lol. Nice idea.
My wife does the same thing...

I'd get all drunked up and say something, she uses them quotes to run the power of guilt on her "Honey Do" lists and shopping trips...

Now, this is a little different, but DAMMIT I hate when she does that!
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
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