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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #24,581
  • Jun 11, 2011 2:07am Jun 11, 2011 2:07am
Quoting Wulfgar
My attention has been on this pair since we have returned to the extremely important 80 level.

I just wanted to share some numbers and ideas for trading the UJ at this level.


Current Price:
80.32
Monthly channel
88.67 to 80.00
Weekly channel
84.22 to 80.00
Daily channel
80.67 to 80.00
Trading Range:
Range Last 6 Sessions: 79.67 to 81.00 = 133 pips
S/R Numbers:
82.11/81.72/81.36/81.00/80.74/80.34/80.00/79.67/79.37/78.85
Dominant Trend:
81.00/81.27/81.46 Strong S & R area


I have been very long yen for a very long time. I am still holding shorts...
Hi Wulfgar,

thanks for your analyses and congrats for holding shorts from 100, it's always a wet dream of me sitting out large trends, but never had the pleasure....
Although I agree with you that the technical picture is not very bright atm I wonder seeing the fundamentals and price-action over last months if this is the time to position/hold large short positions.
CBOJ is not likely to accept levels far below 80 imo.
So contrary to your long term short position all we can try on shorts are short term trades (scalp) actions which at current levels in historic perspective are too risky for me.
I think (might be wrong) that recent PA indicates that a (last) shake out of longs is likely, at what level though 79-76 I let market tell.
But then who am I talking to a trader who can sit out shorts from 100, great job!!!!
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #24,582
  • Jun 11, 2011 2:08am Jun 11, 2011 2:08am
I think more bearish trend will not supported by Japanese government.

BOJ intervention came if USDJPY down under 79..
  • #24,583
  • Jun 11, 2011 3:43am Jun 11, 2011 3:43am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #24,584
  • Jun 11, 2011 4:14am Jun 11, 2011 4:14am
Quoting VinceS
an interesting discussion about intervention, but does anybody know what the fundamental decision points are for BOJ in deciding to do or not do it? I am guessing there is an important cost side to the equation? It is all very well to try and get a better deal for your exporters, but how much and who pays?

Timing undoubtedly also will be important in terms of say end of month payments
VinceS, you knew me in a different forum, where we spoke most days. I know you have not been on here for a while, but the BOJ uses the yen index (kind of like a TWI) and the daily updates are here.

http://www.boj.or.jp/en/statistics/m...ily/index.htm/

Will send you a pm as well.
  • #24,585
  • Jun 11, 2011 4:37am Jun 11, 2011 4:37am
Quoting geniusztc
Absolutely agree. Rounding bottom reversal.
  • #24,586
  • Jun 11, 2011 10:01am Jun 11, 2011 10:01am
http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=397
  • #24,587
  • Jun 11, 2011 10:52am Jun 11, 2011 10:52am
Will long USD/JPY on Monday

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=397
  • #24,588
  • Jun 11, 2011 1:51pm Jun 11, 2011 1:51pm
Quoting USD-Bear
Hi Wulfgar,

thanks for your analyses and congrats for holding shorts from 100, it's always a wet dream of me sitting out large trends, but never had the pleasure....
Although I agree with you that the technical picture is not very bright atm I wonder seeing the fundamentals and price-action over last months if this is the time to position/hold large short positions.
CBOJ is not likely to accept levels far below 80 imo.
So contrary to your long term short position all we can try on shorts are short term trades (scalp) actions which at current levels...
Hi Bear,
What is so great in sitting out a trend that long? I'm sure I can find better "wet dreams", even better "wet realities".
Last time UJ was 100+ is 26 months ago in April 09. Suppose you take shorts UJ there then in the last 26 months you would have gained 2100 pips or so, or about 80 pips per month average. Note that the last 8 months such a trade even didn't return anything. And not a bright look at further downside, maybe a few hundred pips at the most.
I would go ballistic if I had on average less than a 50 pips per WEEK.
I trade for a few reasons:
1. It's fun most of the time.
2. It keeps me busy with stuff that I find interesting.
3. I want to trade for a living in the short term future and can't afford to let my money do nothing for me for a period of 8 months. Note: The 10 months before that just delivered 450 pips at the most. So that makes a 450 pips gain since 11/22/09, about 80 weeks ago.
On average 6 pips per week for 18 months.

Just my opinion.Shamu
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #24,589
  • Jun 11, 2011 5:41pm Jun 11, 2011 5:41pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Hi Bear,
What is so great in sitting out a trend that long? I'm sure I can find better "wet dreams", even better "wet realities".
Last time UJ was 100+ is 26 months ago in April 09. Suppose you take shorts UJ there then in the last 26 months you would have gained 2100 pips or so, or about 80 pips per month average. Note that the last 8 months such a trade even didn't return anything. And not a bright look at further downside, maybe a few hundred pips at the most.
I would go ballistic if I had on average less than a 50 pips per WEEK.
I trade...
Hi Shamu,

If you would assume this long term short prohibits doing anything else you're right, but why should it?
I trade for a living mainly investing and fx for the fun part.
I don't have a portfolio with 1 asset waiting for exit before another position can be taken.
Agree as explained in my previous post the assumed potential of a position should determine if holding on to the position is sense full
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #24,590
  • Jun 11, 2011 7:49pm Jun 11, 2011 7:49pm
Quoting USD-Bear
Hi Shamu,

If you would assume this long term short prohibits doing anything else you're right, but why should it?
I trade for a living mainly investing and fx for the fun part.
I don't have a portfolio with 1 asset waiting for exit before another position can be taken.
Agree as explained in my previous post the assumed potential of a position should determine if holding on to the position is sense full
Agree when you're just trading that for fun. Lol I actually do the same with a tiny position in gold, but I never mention it because it is little.
Bought @ $1,000/ounce, want to sell @ $2,000/ounce, somewhere next year. Or maybe even 2013?
Just for the thrill of having a 100,000 pip gain in one trade.

By the way, do they have "KillerWhales" or "Shamu's" in "Seaworld Harderwijk"? (Dolfinarium). Lol it's more than 15 years ago when I visited there, not realizing at the time that 5 years later I would live roughly 7 km from Seaworld San Diego, California.

Shamu
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #24,591
  • Jun 11, 2011 11:11pm Jun 11, 2011 11:11pm
Quoting Wulfgar
My attention has been on this pair since we have returned to the extremely important 80 level.

I just wanted to share some numbers and ideas for trading the UJ at this level.


Current Price:
80.32
Monthly channel
88.67 to 80.00
Weekly channel
84.22 to 80.00
Daily channel
80.67 to 80.00
Trading Range:
Range Last 6 Sessions: 79.67 to 81.00 = 133 pips
S/R Numbers:
82.11/81.72/81.36/81.00/80.74/80.34/80.00/79.67/79.37/78.85
Dominant Trend:
81.00/81.27/81.46 Strong S & R area


I have been very long yen for a very long time. I am still holding shorts on UJ from back when this pair was well over 100.
I signed up in part to say you're da man. I strive to have the discipline that you do in order to stay in a trade that long despite the retracements digging into your profits and wondering when is the right time to TP.
  • #24,592
  • Jun 12, 2011 10:38am Jun 12, 2011 10:38am
be careful , it might still be a cautious strong bearish trend after all. usdx is testing the 50.0 fibo followed by 61.8 , it looks good inline with the USDJPY at 80.71.

we seen yen surprisingly strong despite usd having slight recovery last friday. rally is coming but not too soon as most have anticipated.
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  • #24,593
  • Jun 12, 2011 8:22pm Jun 12, 2011 8:22pm
Quoting geniusztc
good! but the bullish will be NOT easy .lets c 80.67 ,80.87. if we broke this two areas , there will be more pips .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #24,594
  • Jun 12, 2011 8:45pm Jun 12, 2011 8:45pm
Quoting geniusztc
good! but the bullish will be NOT easy .lets c 80.67 ,80.87. if we broke this two areas , there will be more pips .
imho.....I have seen as many round bottoms fail as I have seen them succeed. They are always good to keep an eye on, but not worth putting too much stock in with some considerable confirmation.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,595
  • Jun 12, 2011 8:55pm Jun 12, 2011 8:55pm
Quoting realjumper
imho.....I have seen as many round bottoms fail as I have seen them succeed. They are always good to keep an eye on, but not worth putting too much stock in with some considerable confirmation.
thank you ! T/P @ 80.61.
A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #24,596
  • Jun 12, 2011 10:42pm Jun 12, 2011 10:42pm
try my luck at 80.58 , saw some potential of it going down to 80.18. i might close out my trade and reenter at 80.40 mark (gain a few bonus pips =) )

im sure u all agree hell is going to break loose if it breaks past the 40 mark . =)
  • #24,597
  • Jun 13, 2011 2:35am Jun 13, 2011 2:35am
Quoting tankokjian
try my luck at 80.58 , saw some potential of it going down to 80.18. i might close out my trade and reenter at 80.40 mark (gain a few bonus pips =) )

im sure u all agree hell is going to break loose if it breaks past the 40 mark . =)
Well, it did break the 80.40 level, and as I expected, nothing broke loose. (Why would it?)
I'm sorry.

Shamu
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #24,598
  • Jun 13, 2011 2:40am Jun 13, 2011 2:40am
Quoting KillerWhale
Agree when you're just trading that for fun. Lol I actually do the same with a tiny position in gold, but I never mention it because it is little.
Bought @ $1,000/ounce, want to sell @ $2,000/ounce, somewhere next year. Or maybe even 2013?
Just for the thrill of having a 100,000 pip gain in one trade.

By the way, do they have "KillerWhales" or "Shamu's" in "Seaworld Harderwijk"? (Dolfinarium). Lol it's more than 15 years ago when I visited there, not realizing at the time that 5 years later I would live roughly 7 km from Seaworld San Diego,...
Kw I actually live in San Diego too.

And I can see your concerns voiced but keep in mind these positions I build are cumulative and i also scale out of them systematically on the way to the next large level.

I follow 22 pairs in all and trade the large monthly channel tops and bottoms( 80 -88.67 on UJ or 1.4911- 1.3728 on EU for example) of each when they present themselves. these levels are very pivotal and I manage a suprisingly high winning percentage doing what i do.

In the Uj for instance I am holding a total of 11 positions short from as high as the 126 level through the 89 level.

I trade these longer term channels because to me I dont like being rushed to make fast analysis and i enjoy taking my time when I trade and when I am fairly certain all my criteria lines up I enter with a well thought out risk management position

My style and time frames may not work for everyone but thats what makes FX great!!

btw you going to the Del Mar fair this year?
  • #24,599
  • Jun 13, 2011 2:42am Jun 13, 2011 2:42am
Quoting Amart83
I signed up in part to say you're da man. I strive to have the discipline that you do in order to stay in a trade that long despite the retracements digging into your profits and wondering when is the right time to TP.
Thanks my friend! its just all in the numbers really! that and alot of practice...lol
  • #24,600
  • Jun 13, 2011 10:25am Jun 13, 2011 10:25am
Short
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Those that can, do, those that can't, teach.
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