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  • #241
  • Jun 8, 2011 7:18am Jun 8, 2011 7:18am
Quoting krue
Hi, LoveJoy80 and Nasir


Both of you are excellent, appreciated your comment on my charts.

It is good to have the first time back concept clarified , this probably is one of the evil in details in my mind that is skilled for good

Regarding to ppz, if I understand correctly, it seems the zone is bounded by those bar highs and lows, in the case of my chart, this zone is too a wide to be traded within your level of risk aversion, nasir? or, probably you would like to see the current bar to be closed below the lower band of...
Sorry for coming back late.

Well if there is PA engulfing these two zones i'd be interesting in it,... other than that i wont be trading it if there is no other reason like fundies or intermarts cause i have a low confidence in non-majors.

What i tried to say by wide was that confluence was scattered (for me) it automatically got wide. My PPZ was at 620 and the TL+61 was at 660. So there is not a wide PPZ (it is in weekly and daily charts but can zoom it down in 4h charts as we can see in my previous posts) but conf is scattered which makes it wide.

On a side note as LJ said we trade a little different. LJ would have made out a profit on this trade. But i would have got stopped out cause i use a very loose trade management.
.
  • #242
  • Jun 8, 2011 8:07am Jun 8, 2011 8:07am
Mark, awesome trades!

On the EURCHF I had my sights set so strongly on the 1.24 area that I completely over looked the 1.23 area that was the 61.8 Fib and a double top and a decent PPZ on the Daily chart. Damn, damn, damn.

The USDCHF looks like it worked out well enough to be to BE, congrats. I am surprised you went counter trend (the longer term trend). But more for me to learn.

Thank you!

Also to Nasir, thank you so very much for your help in this thread as well.
  • #243
  • Jun 8, 2011 8:46am Jun 8, 2011 8:46am
Slow week for me too
Took that u/chf long, be. Took a/j long @ 85.75, small profit. And a b/e on a/j short bit ago @ 85 (probably mismanaged), probably passed on a good 8 hr pin for some free pips to rn on e/g a bit ago (still easing into pa trading). Hanging in there, though, because I know the second I start to slack a bit, the good ones will come.
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  • #244
  • Jun 8, 2011 1:57pm Jun 8, 2011 1:57pm
Quoting unlv_tj
Mark, awesome trades!

On the EURCHF I had my sights set so strongly on the 1.24 area that I completely over looked the 1.23 area that was the 61.8 Fib and a double top and a decent PPZ on the Daily chart. Damn, damn, damn.

The USDCHF looks like it worked out well enough to be to BE, congrats. I am surprised you went counter trend (the longer term trend). But more for me to learn.

Thank you!

Also to Nasir, thank you so very much for your help in this thread as well.
The UCHF was indeed CT. Nothing wrong with going CT if the setup is right you just have to weigh everything up and set your risk and manage accordingly. It's no surprise that the best setups are in the direction of a strong higher TF trend...something which many people dont factor into their risk and trade management IMO.
  • #245
  • Jun 8, 2011 2:15pm Jun 8, 2011 2:15pm
Quoting Jlr
Slow week for me too
Took that u/chf long, be. Took a/j long @ 85.75, small profit. And a b/e on a/j short bit ago @ 85 (probably mismanaged), probably passed on a good 8 hr pin for some free pips to rn on e/g a bit ago (still easing into pa trading). Hanging in there, though, because I know the second I start to slack a bit, the good ones will come.
Attachment
Very true, patience and discipline is key...yeah it's easy to lose focus too when things are quiet but like you said the moment you do is the moment some great setups will appear.
  • #246
  • Jun 8, 2011 2:37pm Jun 8, 2011 2:37pm
Quoting supremeChaos
i dont see a wide zone. can u point me to it?


hello krue,
if i may join in..
that is a valid concern.
in your daily chart, u can see price had moved up for a few days.
to me, if u are gonna trade this, u should be alert of potential minor PPZs that can stall any move down (in your favor)... & a possibility that your trade is a mere retracement of the prior days' upmove.
always watch out for possibilities/risks of price going against your trade.
Hey SC, how's it going?

Thanks for dropping by
  • #247
  • Jun 9, 2011 2:42am Jun 9, 2011 2:42am
It's been a slow week and I expected this morning to be dead slow ahead of the ECB and BOE interest rate decisions, but this trade sure took off nicely
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  • #248
  • Jun 9, 2011 7:07am Jun 9, 2011 7:07am
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
never mind, nasir, your analysis rocks, and very interesting trading style. wish talk to you often.

Krue


Quoting nasir.khan
Sorry for coming back late.

Well if there is PA engulfing these two zones i'd be interesting in it,... other than that i wont be trading it if there is no other reason like fundies or intermarts cause i have a low confidence in non-majors.

What i tried to say by wide was that confluence was scattered (for me) it automatically got wide. My PPZ was at 620 and the TL+61 was at 660. So there is not a wide PPZ (it is in weekly and daily charts but can zoom it down in 4h charts as we can see in my previous posts) but conf is scattered which makes...
  • #249
  • Jun 10, 2011 4:10am Jun 10, 2011 4:10am
hello Lovejoy & all
totally forgot about ur new section , subscribing now ..... ill read up d thread over d wkend to come up to speed.
cheers guys
Squeezy
Simplicity is the key to success
  • #250
  • Jun 10, 2011 9:11am Jun 10, 2011 9:11am
Talking of correlation, see attached charts

Technical Confluence

EURUSD: approaching 50% retracement of up move with additional confluence of pivot point and last major down move symmetry.

USDIX: approaching 50% retracement of down move with additional confluence of pivot point and last major down move symmetry.

Fundamental Confluence

Hint of interest rate hike on Euro next month.

A buy limit order set at 143.40
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd 4hour.gif Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdx 4hour.gif Size: 21 KB
The purpose of knowledge is action, not knowledge
  • #251
  • Jun 10, 2011 12:31pm Jun 10, 2011 12:31pm
Quoting alifari
Talking of correlation, see attached charts

Technical Confluence

EURUSD: approaching 50% retracement of up move with additional confluence of pivot point and last major down move symmetry.

USDIX: approaching 50% retracement of down move with additional confluence of pivot point and last major down move symmetry.

Fundamental Confluence

Hint of interest rate hike on Euro next month.

A buy limit order set at 143.40
Yep that's a nice technical setup on EU with both USDX and EURX confluence. I typically finish 'work' early on a Friday so don't take any new trades otherwise I would have taken the EU trade.

Not sure about the fundamental confluence, the market is more concerned with the Greece debt problems than the likely impending rate hike IMO.
  • #252
  • Jun 10, 2011 12:32pm Jun 10, 2011 12:32pm
Quoting squeezy
hello Lovejoy & all
totally forgot about ur new section , subscribing now ..... ill read up d thread over d wkend to come up to speed.
cheers guys
Squeezy
Welcome Squeezy...it's been a while, how's things?
  • #253
  • Jun 10, 2011 12:33pm Jun 10, 2011 12:33pm
This was a nice quick scalp today...with EP confluence too.
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  • #254
  • Jun 10, 2011 12:43pm Jun 10, 2011 12:43pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Welcome Squeezy...it's been a while, how's things?
very well LJ, can see things r good @ ur end .....
have a lovely wkend friend
Simplicity is the key to success
  • #255
  • Jun 12, 2011 9:29pm Jun 12, 2011 9:29pm
In the next two posts I am consciously going to try and avoid making reference in any form of correlation in the following analysis not because they are not necessary if I were to trade these set ups. I want to see each in the light of it’s technical merit so that the seniors here can make in put into my growth in the area of looking at a given set up technically.


USDX – Technically speaking, a major test for USD is the zone it just approached as seen in the following (at first glance) two charts. Viewed from both Daily TF and H4 TF the zone is critical though not a major PPZ in my book (at first glance) but given all the attributes of that zone as I see it right now it can be an effective resistance. In fact checking backwards I see that the BRN 75.00 has been respected severally as S/R (Oct 2007 - Feb. 2008, & Oct 2009 – Nov 2009). If I were to be considering any set up in the USD pairs today I will be watching PA as we get into that zone. And if I were going to trade this instrument I would be looking out for PA on the H1 Tf to consider a possible short, the H4 Tf Fib 50 and 38.2 would be TAs to watch out for while ultimate target would be the 74.18 Daily Tf PPZ R turned S now. On the other hand, to take long I would be looking for price to retrace to the FIB50 – RN 74.50 zone at least and my final take profit target would be the zone earlier mentioned (BRN 75.00 etc confluence).




Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #256
  • Jun 12, 2011 9:36pm Jun 12, 2011 9:36pm
EURX –The wkly Tf shows a two wks Bearish PB. From the Daily Tf there is a Wkly Tf PPZ Support confluennced with BRN 110.00 and fib 61.8 giving us a very potent FTB set up. That where I would be looking out for a buying opportunity noting the fib38.2 areas as FTA and targeting the fib50 – Daily R zone for final take profit all things being equal. For now, to take a sell I would like to see a retracement to the the Fib50 – BRN 111.00 confluence area then look out for a supporting PA there with final take profit of the zone earlier mentioned (i.e Wkly Tf PPZ Support confluennced with BRN 110.00 and fib 61.8) all things being equal.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #257
  • Jun 12, 2011 9:46pm Jun 12, 2011 9:46pm
This is not directly related to the above exercise:


AU presently has BEOBon both the wkly and daily Tfs. In considering a possible short would you do that around the FIB38.2 – Daily Tf PPZ S turned R (a FTB set up) confluenced zone or would prefer to wait and do so only if rice makes it to the fib61.8 – RN1.0600 confluence zone? I ask this because I have not yet seen a situation where you take a trade from the fib38.2 ret level and I recall you said you prefer the 50 and 61.8 levels. Imo because of the Daily PPZ the set up is strong enough especially if at the time price gets there price is also at a support on usdx. What would be your take on this?
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  • #258
  • Jun 13, 2011 12:09am Jun 13, 2011 12:09am
Quoting jeffokes
In the next two posts I am consciously going to try and avoid making reference in any form of correlation in the following analysis not because they are not necessary if I were to trade these set ups. I want to see each in the light of it’s technical merit so that the seniors here can make in put into my growth in the area of looking at a given set up technically.


USDX – Technically speaking, a major test for USD is the zone it just approached as seen in the following (at first glance) two charts. Viewed from both...
USDX and EURX are both charts I am watching closely. I have the same setup on USDX but on EURX I prefer to split the area into two PPZ's...the 61% fib plus PPZ is a more minor PPZ compared to the 110 level.

My FTA's are also marked on my chart
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #259
  • Jun 13, 2011 12:12am Jun 13, 2011 12:12am
Quoting jeffokes
This is not directly related to the above exercise:


AU presently has BEOBon both the wkly and daily Tfs. In considering a possible short would you do that around the FIB38.2 – Daily Tf PPZ S turned R (a FTB set up) confluenced zone or would prefer to wait and do so only if rice makes it to the fib61.8 – RN1.0600 confluence zone? I ask this because I have not yet seen a situation where you take a trade from the fib38.2 ret level and I recall you said you prefer the 50 and 61.8 levels. Imo because of the Daily PPZ the set up...
I only use 50/61 fibs, from my own research I found these to have a much higher potential as confluence than the other fibs.

On AU I see it in a weekly range and have no PA on my feed. The 1.0600 area on the lower TF's is an area of interest for me.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #260
  • Jun 13, 2011 12:43am Jun 13, 2011 12:43am
I hope some of you Asia traders took this bread and butter setup...
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