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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #24,321
  • Jun 2, 2011 2:38am Jun 2, 2011 2:38am
Quoting realjumper
Heading into the 9th month of bottom dwelling for this piece of shit pair.......how much longer?.......lol.......rhetorical question!
Piece of shit pair?
I wish every pair was trading so easily and predictable.
I don't think I've ever lost a penny trading UC. Just keep an eye on oil, Dow Jones, gold versus dollar.
Most of my profits come from UDS/YEN, but second is USD/CAD.

Shamu
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #24,322
  • Jun 2, 2011 2:41am Jun 2, 2011 2:41am
Quoting KillerWhale
Piece of shit pair?
I wish every pair was trading so easily and predictable.
I don't think I've ever lost a penny trading UC. Just keep an eye on oil, Dow Jones, gold versus dollar.
Most of my profits come from UDS/YEN, but second is USD/CAD.

Shamu
Oh yeah.....no issue there Shamu......I'm just tired of this range.....after 8 months it would be nice to see some direction!!

As an aside, I see than Kan survived a no confidence vote......hmmmmm
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,323
  • Jun 2, 2011 2:41am Jun 2, 2011 2:41am
Quoting tkhlam
Do you mean it will be the head or will go further down?
Could go either way!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,324
  • Jun 2, 2011 3:33am Jun 2, 2011 3:33am
Quoting realjumper
Oh yeah.....no issue there Shamu......I'm just tired of this range.....after 8 months it would be nice to see some direction!!
Lol, it has all the directions you want: it goes up, down and sideways.
What the hell do you want more? Going Italic? (//////// or \\\\\\\\), would be fun though.

Lol after ADP report 19 hours ago or so I got in right at the bottom, low 80.70's, and 13 hours later I banked a high leveraged 50 pips.
Enough to buy a bone for my dog and an airline ticket + 2 bottles of very expensive champagne for my most beautiful and sexy girl friend. (She lives 420 miles or 640 km's away in Tucson AZ and I'm in San Diego, CA).

Since Friday I did 3 trades, first UY (made a mistake when I made an entry 10 times higher than I was planning), highly stressed through the weekend because of way too high leverage, but banked a very nice 60 pip profit, than UC after the drop, and after ADP employment report again UY, in at 80.75, out at 81.25, banked in total more than in an average month.
Why UY dropped after bad ADP report goes beyond me, but who cares?
(All other pair did the opposite, as they should: bad ADP report > stock market down > dollar up)

But generally: buy UY 81.00 and lower, and just wait till you are in profit.
Can't go wrong. It's just too close to possible actions from BoJ and I love that. Let this go on for 9 years in stead of 9 months and I will be a very wealthy man. Spending the rest of my life traveling with a laptop and 2 beauties.

Shamu
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #24,325
  • Jun 2, 2011 3:55am Jun 2, 2011 3:55am
Quoting KillerWhale
Lol, it has all the directions you want: it goes up, down and sideways.
What the hell do you want more? Going Italic? (//////// or \\\\), would be fun though.

Lol after ADP report 19 hours ago or so I got in right at the bottom, low 80.70's, and 13 hours later I banked a high leveraged 50 pips.
Enough to buy a bone for my dog and an airline ticket + 2 bottles of very expensive champagne for my most beautiful and sexy girl friend. (She lives 420 miles or 640 km's away in Tucson AZ and I'm in San Diego, CA).

Since Friday I did 3 trades, first...
Yesterday was indeed a good one. ADP comes at 12.30am for me, but it was worth the wait. Asian and UK/EU sessions are my bread and butter, and for the most part, it pays quite well. This week has been a bit slack though, but still in front of the 8 ball.

I don't want this range to continue though, I want to see it head of to 100 plus, and at the same time to USD/CHF take off to parity and beyond. That way I'll be able to scale in quite a few trades and have lots of fun!!

It will happen, it's just a matter of time!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,326
  • Jun 2, 2011 5:54am Jun 2, 2011 5:54am
Quoting KillerWhale
I went in heavy in the low 80.70's and made a killer trade that gave me more profit in 13 hours than I normally get in 1.5 week. In at 80.75, out at 81.25 with high leverage.
Same with an UY trade that I started last Friday and held over the weekend.
And in between same sort of killer trade with USD/CAD
Since Friday I made with 3 trades more than I normally make in a month.

I love the red trend line in the chart.

Happy trading.

Shamu
who needs a trend? lol...looks like its bak around your 8075 as i type...for me no trades on this pair right now...i like usca PA at the moment
  • #24,327
  • Jun 2, 2011 8:38am Jun 2, 2011 8:38am
Quoting realjumper
Could go either way!
Nice and wise ans.
  • #24,328
  • Edited 3:49pm Jun 2, 2011 10:54am | Edited 3:49pm
Quoting realjumper
Yesterday was indeed a good one. ADP comes at 12.30am for me, but it was worth the wait. Asian and UK/EU sessions are my bread and butter, and for the most part, it pays quite well. This week has been a bit slack though, but still in front of the 8 ball.

I don't want this range to continue though, I want to see it head of to 100 plus, and at the same time to USD/CHF take off to parity and beyond. That way I'll be able to scale in quite a few trades and have lots of fun!!

It will happen, it's just a matter of time!!
Jumper,

How do you think this will happen (yen back to 100)? It's not that the yen is so strong, it's just the dollar that is so damn weak. And now they voted down raising the debt sealing, how do you think US is gonna pay their debts coming in August or so??
Another Quantitative Easing ahead? (What a nice word for what is really is: printing more money!!) I think 75% of US people have no idea what QE is or the impact it has. I think the only reason why yen is not going to 70 or lower, is the fear for BoJ intervening even with the help of G7. I think that yen needs to be 85 minimum for big Japanese export companies to get a profit. On top of that: Obama loves a weak dollar, it's good for our exports and it's good for his re-election because it might lead to a better unemployment number.
So of course something will happen BUT WHAT????????
US is borrowing money like a $HUNDRED MILLION PER HOUR or so.

Tip: read my post nr 452277 on page 30152 of the EU thread (don't know how to link it here)

Shamu
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #24,329
  • Jun 2, 2011 12:09pm Jun 2, 2011 12:09pm
Warning:
Slowly start being careful with longs UY, see attached chart. We're in a downward pointing wedge that might lead us back into the high 79's.
No problems though, with some patience it will go back up.
I'm still buying anything below 81.00 but with smaller lots, waiting for my chance if it gets really lower. I'm not considering selling, just waiting for my chance to get in at a low and make another killer trade.
But that won't happen this week.

I'll be following Unemployment number with more than high interest.

See 4 hour chart, indicators neutral at the moment.

Shamu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uy 4 hour 06-02-11.gif Size: 27 KB
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  • #24,330
  • Jun 2, 2011 3:36pm Jun 2, 2011 3:36pm
What is wrong with UJ today??? All of the USD pairs are going down and why is UJ the only one going up? Stupid BoJ intervening again?
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #24,331
  • Jun 2, 2011 3:40pm Jun 2, 2011 3:40pm
My daily is showing that it is basically unchanged for the day.
  • #24,332
  • Jun 2, 2011 4:08pm Jun 2, 2011 4:08pm
Quoting Astroman
My daily is showing that it is basically unchanged for the day.
I know and meanwhile all the other USD pairs are going down corresponding to the USD weaknesses. I bet you the stupid BoJ is behind it again. If the UJ spikes up during the Asian session then my suspicion is confirmed.

Still though, manipulation in the currency market is despicable!
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #24,333
  • Jun 2, 2011 4:17pm Jun 2, 2011 4:17pm
Nah, aint going to happen.

Remember, job numbers come out in the A.M.
  • #24,334
  • Jun 2, 2011 4:24pm Jun 2, 2011 4:24pm
Quoting Forexia
What is wrong with UJ today??? All of the USD pairs are going down and why is UJ the only one going up? Stupid BoJ intervening again?
U/J has been correlating counter dollar ever since the earthquake.
  • #24,335
  • Jun 2, 2011 4:34pm Jun 2, 2011 4:34pm
Quoting Venice
U/J has been correlating counter dollar ever since the earthquake.
EXACTLY! So if the USD is going down, we should see JPY going up which means the UJ pair should be going down, no??
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #24,336
  • Jun 2, 2011 5:16pm Jun 2, 2011 5:16pm
Quoting Forexia
I know and meanwhile all the other USD pairs are going down corresponding to the USD weaknesses. I bet you the stupid BoJ is behind it again. If the UJ spikes up during the Asian session then my suspicion is confirmed.

Still though, manipulation in the currency market is despicable!
Definitely no BoJ behind this, they are not interested in a few pips yen loss per hour. If they go in alone, you'll see a 300 pip spike at least. If they are supported by G7, the pair would go up 1,000 pips.

And besides that, they are not going up, UY is in a downward triangle which leads to believe that we will see high 79's soon. (I hope so, nice big buying opportunities.

And manipulation despicable? Would you rather see that a few rich speculators bankrupt a whole country? Make their export go bankrupt?
Come on, would you want to see the yen at 50.00 and a 50% unemployment number because their big export companies laid everyone off? The only one who wants that is probably OBAMA, would be good for his re-election.

Shamu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uy 1 hour 06-02-11.gif Size: 42 KB
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  • #24,337
  • Jun 2, 2011 5:21pm Jun 2, 2011 5:21pm
Quoting Forexia
EXACTLY! So if the USD is going down, we should see JPY going up which means the UJ pair should be going down, no??

It did go down yesterday. Nearly hit 80.50.



Not too much of a move to the upside as well, I see nothing out of ordinary with yesterdays movement especially a day before the big one comes out in the A.M. I'm done for the week for the most part like I always am 24 hours pre -job numbers. Lets see what happens in the A.M. It could surprise to the upside even though everything else suggest otherwise it has happened before.

You mentioned "manipulation" in the currency markets. Jobs numbers are manipulation numero uno. Let me count the ways.

One of my favorites was back when employment numbers were very good except in one area---inner city. Solution? Start including less inner city folks into the samples where the numbers are derived from. Problem solved. Clinton was a master with that one.
  • #24,338
  • Jun 2, 2011 5:51pm Jun 2, 2011 5:51pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Definitely no BoJ behind this, they are not interested in a few pips yen loss per hour. If they go in alone, you'll see a 300 pip spike at least. If they are supported by G7, the pair would go up 1,000 pips.

And besides that, they are not going up, UY is in a downward triangle which leads to believe that we will see high 79's soon. (I hope so, nice big buying opportunities.

And manipulation despicable? Would you rather see that a few rich speculators bankrupt a whole country? Make their export go bankrupt?
Come on, would you want to see the...
I agree with you on UJ on a downward trend and that's why I am puzzled why it's stalling. It did hit as low as 80.80 just shy of the fibo level 81.79 but it bounced right back up.

As for the currency manipulation, it is not a responsible or honest way to treat your currencies. Currency manipulation can create artificial spill-over effect like "imported inflation" to other countries that would otherwise be fine. And it is against the free-market principle. If you are going to constantly manipulate your country's currency, why don't you take it off the market and have it non-tradable. Why have it free-floating but cheating the market from time to time by manipulating its price in the background?

As to the speculators, they do NOT have this all-mighty magical power to single-handedly drive a currency's value this way or that to the point of the "bankrupting" a currency, unless the value of the currency IS what it supposed to be. No speculators are big enough to do that. Currency values are determined by market forces and is determined by various underlying economic, political and etc. factors plus supply/demand. George Soros did NOT single-handedly cause the Asian currency crisis, there were already a lot of unsustainable bubbles in the Asian economy that were artifically propping the currency values up, Soros just speculated on that and brought the Asian currencies to their correct value. If Soros did not step in, the market will eventually do its job to correct the currency values, Soros just did it faster.

If the correct UJ value is supposed to be 50, then speculators or no speculators, it will arrive at 50 but if it's supposed to be higher than 50, then even if there were ten speculators there, the value still won't go to 50. But when the UJ value is supposed to be 50 but via market intervention to prop it higher just to help the exporters is cheating. If the goods and services being exported is high quality and is high in demand, they will sell by themselves and there is no "help" needed.

Sorry for the long post. Lots of time to kill with a flat market.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #24,339
  • Jun 2, 2011 5:53pm Jun 2, 2011 5:53pm
For as long as I've been trading (only 3 years) UY has never seemed to have much of a correlation with the dollar index. To me the yen is more of a safety currency - Risk off = strong yen relative to dollar. I've noticed the UY cross correlates more to treasury yields than anything else.

Good post killerwhale
  • #24,340
  • Jun 2, 2011 5:59pm Jun 2, 2011 5:59pm
Quoting wh92stang
For as long as I've been trading (only 3 years) UY has never seemed to have much of a correlation with the dollar index.
And why should it?

As the EURO goes so does the index.

Looking at the index is just unnecessary noise to me. Hell, just look at the EURO and you will have a good idea what is happening to the index.
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