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  • #451,361
  • Edited 1:12am May 29, 2011 1:02am | Edited 1:12am
Quoting jaylovin
Greece was always in the picture from 1.18 to 1.49.... didn't stop the climb...
there's a difference between being in the picture and being in the spot light...

ez debt woes, portugal in particular, triggered this sharp sell off from 49xx...

also the climb from 18xx owes far more to dollar side qe, than anything euro side, that has just proven to be the more powerful fundamental driver...

in any case the whole bullish/bearish sentiment and predicting is just a bit of fun imo, i will be taking my lead from price action and playing both sides as pa dictates...
  • #451,362
  • May 29, 2011 1:03am May 29, 2011 1:03am
Quoting PayTheLimit
weekend=
what up ptl, tfi nearly monday...
  • #451,363
  • May 29, 2011 1:10am May 29, 2011 1:10am
Quoting FibbinArchie
close above resistance in 434x area fontu and i would be in agreement, but not until. also greece debt is back in the spot light...
Yes , close above 4345 only place the long bais for now but not likley it will continue up much more before another retracement but in that case not below the bottom can take & so long from any bottom will apply, otherwise price may still expect another last chance manipulation & further down.

Yeah eu countries debt there but US also multiplies by this times & limit reached & may exceed also . Obama nor Hilary not start the day long shows for long time as no success elsewhere rather ready to hide faces now I see . Misrata cluster bombing in Libya one such misconduct ( i read yesterday tv shows ) , may be behind all killing here & there also . Nobody encountering in the world all knowingly but time may come for them too to face the court in future after gaddafi over .After laden started gaddafi was to continue manipulation not seen yet .
sorry for nasty politics but to me it is all as fundamentals in forex war time.
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #451,364
  • May 29, 2011 1:15am May 29, 2011 1:15am
Quoting FibbinArchie
what up ptl, tfi nearly monday...
Not much bro, just takin it easy, enjoying the weekend. I've closed the books for the month, looking to work on a couple of ideas that I have had on the shelf next couple of days. Its a pain in the ass doing real time trading trading and working on new ideas. Plus I'm not one for backtesting, I like to see how things perform real time, so next couple of days will do a little live R&D. What about you bro, go out for a couple last nite?
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #451,365
  • May 29, 2011 1:15am May 29, 2011 1:15am
Quoting fontu
Yes , close above 4345 only place the long bais for now but not likley it will continue up much more before another retracement but in the that case not below the bottom can take & so long from any bottom will apply, otherwise price may still expect another last chance manipulation & further down.

Yeah eu countries debt there but US also multiplies by this times & limit reached & may exceed also . Obama nor Hilary not start the day long shows for long time as no success elsewhere rather ready to hide faces now I see . Misrata cluster bombing...
politics imo is all smoke and mirrors designed to mislead the sheeple, best to question anything coming from main-stream-media talking heads...
  • #451,366
  • May 29, 2011 1:21am May 29, 2011 1:21am
Quoting PayTheLimit
Not much bro, just takin it easy, enjoying the weekend. I've closed the books for the month, looking to work on a couple of ideas that I have had on the shelf next couple of days. Its a pain in the ass doing real time trading trading and working on new ideas. Plus I'm not one for backtesting, I like to see how things perform real time, so next couple of days will do a little live R&D. What about you bro, go out for a couple last nite?
was gonna go out during the day yeasterday, but only if the sun came out, which it didn't + my main man had his kid for the day, so did a little research instead...

monaco grand prix this avo, and been invited out by quite a hottie tonight, so may go out for a few drinks later, bank holiday tomorrow and all that...
  • #451,367
  • May 29, 2011 1:21am May 29, 2011 1:21am
Quoting Larseg
So, it doesn't really work that way, negative probability=loss
This is what you have in casinos, negative probability...
The house always wins... Gambling 101
Probability usually scales from 0 to 1.
A probability >0.5 means that you win more often than you loose. P<1 means you loose more often than you win. Depending on you trading style you might want a probability much grater than 0.5 when you enter a trade

Trust me, you don't wanna mess with negative probabilities.
  • #451,368
  • May 29, 2011 1:25am May 29, 2011 1:25am
Quoting FibbinArchie

monaco grand prix this avo, and been invited out by quite a hottie tonight, so may go out for a few drinks later, bank holiday tomorrow and all that...
nice...I'll excpect a full report in the morning......enjoy brother, talk later
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #451,369
  • May 29, 2011 1:28am May 29, 2011 1:28am
Quoting PayTheLimit
nice...I'll excpect a full report in the morning......enjoy brother, talk later
have a good day bro, yeah will do, but kinda in that friend grey area with her atm...
  • #451,370
  • May 29, 2011 1:31am May 29, 2011 1:31am
I have friend who is working in the bank in Athena,Greece.
He told me that people are in panic and they are take out their money from banks.He thinks that bank where he is working have money only for short period of time.When all banks run out of money-then it will be massive hystery in greece.
  • #451,371
  • May 29, 2011 1:31am May 29, 2011 1:31am
  •  Vilgax
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Lack of money is root of most evil | 466 Posts
Hello everyone,

If we could all master letting the winners run and cutting the losers short we would never have to work again....but as long as we get it right even half the time we will still do ok. As for where to next I was short on Friday and it did start to go down nicely only to reverse and take me out at BE and it finally cleared 1.43. Is currently back at 1.4284 and I am still short biased and will see how it looks when the markets open later today. Buying low and selling high is brilliant in theory but very difficult in reality. If you enter too late you may end up missing the ship which sailed off without you and if you enter too early you will get flushed out...trial and error...practice and patience, sound mm and strict discipline...some days are easy and some days are not...keeps us on our toes thats for sure....
The forex market has its own life and takes its own time.
  • #451,372
  • May 29, 2011 1:37am May 29, 2011 1:37am
Quoting Vilgax
Hello everyone,

If we could all master letting the winners run and cutting the losers short we would never have to work again....but as long as we get it right even half the time we will still do ok. As for where to next I was short on Friday and it did start to go down nicely only to reverse and take me out at BE and it finally cleared 1.43. Is currently back at 1.4284 and I am still short biased and will see how it looks when the markets open later today. Buying low and selling high is brilliant...
highlighted in your text is the paradoxical problem we face in st swing trades...
  • #451,373
  • May 29, 2011 1:49am May 29, 2011 1:49am
Thought i might use this chance on a non-trading day to ask some questions.
Im having this Daily Pivot indi.

And it seems like it takes its calculation from the New York session.
Any one has a DP that starts from the London session?

And when using DP's, do we have to manually load it onto charts every 24hrs so that new pivot points are calculated or does it automatically calculate it.

Thanks!
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 ###Auto Pivot.ex4   15 KB | 284 downloads
  • #451,374
  • May 29, 2011 2:32am May 29, 2011 2:32am
http://watchmannewsletter.typepad.co...llapse-un.html
/ ... clarifying decisions ... /
  • #451,375
  • May 29, 2011 2:47am May 29, 2011 2:47am
Quoting FibbinArchie
highlighted in your text is the paradoxical problem we face in st swing trades...
traders may have also experienced the same thing,
only an analysis, and I'm always wrong, don't follow me,
  • #451,376
  • May 29, 2011 2:57am May 29, 2011 2:57am
Quoting andelumut
traders may have also experienced the same thing,
where system design comes in, ie. mandatory close of 50% or 60% of position at +20 to let the remainder run, have the discipline to exit on a counter signal, tighten stops near potential reversal areas, etc.

but again, what is lurking, is the fear of missing out, the fear of leaving money on the table, ironic really, since that is what is resulting in the loss of open position profit and in some cases resulting in winners actually becoming losers...

but as denise shull says, overcoming the fear of missing out is by far the biggest challenge a trader has to conquer if they are to become consistent, for reasons stated and to avoid chasing entries, which can be equally hazardous to the health of your account balance...
  • #451,377
  • May 29, 2011 2:58am May 29, 2011 2:58am
Quoting Vilgax
Hello everyone,

If we could all master letting the winners run and cutting the losers short we would never have to work again....but as long as we get it right even half the time we will still do ok. As for where to next I was short on Friday and it did start to go down nicely only to reverse and take me out at BE and it finally cleared 1.43. Is currently back at 1.4284 and I am still short biased and will see how it looks when the markets open later today. Buying low and selling high is brilliant in theory but very difficult in reality. If you...
very true , if we could do that that could happen , if ii continue bull then long to let run or bear then short too,oh! if take action timely the ship not miss! like lots of approach aproach conflicts there one side & opposite also there if not let run it in lust it did not happen and so on , avoidence - avoidence conflict, notorious if mixed up approach-avoidence one.

Actually nothing as easy as told & real time price movement is something different than the analyses of the past & not any easy to follow up with the present development in contrast of the past.


Just think price up while bais still down for the breakout down & may do something different , bo up apparently real time & not happened yet , limit 4345 intact , h1 close price 4326 also. so when one in long may let it run as part of his swing trade with guards on and on the other side shorter also happy yet doing it but very carefull also & doing all scalping shorts at any top.while price still going up & up in the scalping group , should not let it run & get hit at be or close at a loss or drawdown sl at above the highest limit & sleep , rather close at an early before the limits down for each possible leg down because limit down there for further up at and any level up also & wait again go at top for short.

that is strategy in both swing & scalping different & the same not apply "letting the winners run and cutting the losers short "
nothing impossible though in mastering.

fontu
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu1.gif Size: 13 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu2.gif Size: 13 KB
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #451,378
  • May 29, 2011 3:00am May 29, 2011 3:00am
eu at 38% retrace...reversal here or at 50%

tuesday should get clear pic./direction

any news on G8 meeting ?/????
  • #451,379
  • May 29, 2011 3:11am May 29, 2011 3:11am
Quoting Leftie
Thought i might use this chance on a non-trading day to ask some questions.
Im having this Daily Pivot indi.

And it seems like it takes its calculation from the New York session.
Any one has a DP that starts from the London session?

And when using DP's, do we have to manually load it onto charts every 24hrs so that new pivot points are calculated or does it automatically calculate it.

Thanks!
This one looks as good as any I have seen, all automatically calculated and has alert choice
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 xpPivotAlerts.mq4   8 KB | 330 downloads
  • #451,380
  • May 29, 2011 3:42am May 29, 2011 3:42am
Quoting FibbinArchie
somehow reminds me of the old Tudor Jones documentary "Trader" just done a search and it looks as though he may have had it removed from all the sites again, really don't know why he doesn't want anyone to see it...

I think I may have a copy buried somewhere on the hard drive of one of my old laptops, unfortunately I don't think it's feasible to post even if I do find it, as it looks as though he has turned up the heat on the copyright...

Hi FA,

why haven't I heard about this guy
I love stories like that and had to visit our friend wikipedia... Ill see if I find the documentary later on....

Many of his points I saw are very similar to mine except picking tops and bottoms, I like to be in a confirmed trend and leave when it is still trending... just steady in and steady out under the radar...

Have been trading more AUDUSD and USDJPY lately as I seriously need to eyeball the market less and live more... which was the reason for trading in the first place, but its so funny to WATCH!!! hehe, enjoy the rest of the week-end buddy.
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