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Daily candle chart

  • #11,501
  • May 28, 2011 1:57am May 28, 2011 1:57am
I suppose the main thing here is the reaction to the TL ,I would think we must go to bottom ,only monthly does make me feel bullish
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  • #11,502
  • May 28, 2011 2:05am May 28, 2011 2:05am
Yes, but hammer does not mean much on itself unless confirmed. I will keep on selling rallies on lower timeframes unless there is a clear reversal on monthly or change in fundaments. Dollar has been "near low" for the last decade most of the time

But of course caution is always required.
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  • #11,503
  • May 28, 2011 2:10am May 28, 2011 2:10am
To clarify: I don't sell on monthly or daily charts, but on 4H or 1H and hold for few hours, 1-2 days max. Just to put things into perspective. Of course I would not advocate selling bottom on weekly charts. That would not be reasonable. But intraday charts are another story.

I use candlestick analysis on daily and weekly charts to give me direction for intraday trading. Sell the rallies on 4H or 1H. But don't sell the absolute bottom ...
  • #11,504
  • May 28, 2011 2:30am May 28, 2011 2:30am
Your right Pipsy of course the chf is bullish also ,


Quoting Pipsy108
Yes, but hammer does not mean much on itself unless confirmed. I will keep on selling rallies on lower timeframes unless there is a clear reversal on monthly or change in fundaments. Dollar has been "near low" for the last decade most of the time

But of course caution is always required.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #11,505
  • May 28, 2011 2:34am May 28, 2011 2:34am
My biggest mistake of the week was closing a long gbp usd and opening a long eur gbp ,,I was very focused on Eur longs
But you can easly see see how the LFX charts are of use since the $ and cable hit the trendline at the same time



Quoting Bones
gbp-usd on t/l
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp usd d1 28-5-11.gif Size: 15 KB
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  • #11,506
  • May 28, 2011 2:35am May 28, 2011 2:35am
mind you I don't see the GBP as fantastically bullish
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  • #11,507
  • May 28, 2011 2:44am May 28, 2011 2:44am
My money was on a break up ,but ended up with a very choppy ride ,now



Quoting Bones
Hi Hussin ,just wondered may be you would be in the bear camp on JPY,possibly would open over the falling tl


LFX JPY chart is inverse
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #11,508
  • May 28, 2011 2:48am May 28, 2011 2:48am
Quoting Bones
mind you I don't see the GBP as fantastically bullish
agree, imho we should take this pound bullrun in short term perspective...

i dont see any reasons that the pound keeps gaining strength until end of june
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #11,509
  • May 28, 2011 2:53am May 28, 2011 2:53am
Bones, I have found it very usefull to use CHF or gold as a reference points in studying currencies (USD, EUR, GBP) instead of indexes (both LFX and USDX), because indexes contain too many moving targets, while CHF and gold are a lot more stable. I have already posted USDCHF and EURCHF, so here is GBPCHF. Note that unlike USD and EUR it did not pierce through the resistance. May be a hint about it's future direction (but wait for confirmation). Also note that for the last year CHF has been sort of pegged to gold (it's possible that SNB is going to intervene eventually, but last time they were not successfull and lost really big money).
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  • #11,510
  • May 28, 2011 3:45am May 28, 2011 3:45am
Yes that is an interesting chart and Hussin has always said that we must be aware of other markets ,and I do try though my time is very limited ,and also there is an ever changing link between markets as time moves on depending on the economic cycle ,which unless understood fully can give false indications
its interesting that the chf is being linked to gold ,any idea why ?
I like the LFX as it gives great confluence if read well ,and it is a much cleaner candle creator for someone trying to read price ,also there can be a real edge in time for the appearance of a pattern to the outcome
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  • #11,511
  • May 28, 2011 3:56am May 28, 2011 3:56am
Quoting Bones
its interesting that the chf is being linked to gold ,any idea why ?
I think the reason may be that the flight to safety from euro and dollar goes to both swiss frank and gold.

But it does not work that way all the time, e.g. between 2005-2010 frank was depreciating against gold too. At some point it may start falling again.
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  • #11,512
  • May 28, 2011 4:43am May 28, 2011 4:43am
Yes its the $ thats driven this move ,the monthly is a difficult read with a break below support then an inside candle that looks bullish ,then we have been range bound ,I'm unsure on this month candle ,depends on break I suppose


Quoting PhAnTi'
agree, imho we should take this pound bullrun in short term perspective...

i dont see any reasons that the pound keeps gaining strength until end of june
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp lfx monthly 28-5---11.gif Size: 13 KB
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  • #11,513
  • May 28, 2011 5:17am May 28, 2011 5:17am
possibly this is a similar set up
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  • #11,514
  • May 28, 2011 6:34am May 28, 2011 6:34am
Quoting Bones
mind you I don't see the GBP as fantastically bullish
@GU, bull is back,, next target .65**
only an analysis, and I'm always wrong, don't follow me,
  • #11,515
  • May 28, 2011 6:40am May 28, 2011 6:40am
I have been looking into crystal ball trying to figure out where gold may end up at the end of this year, and spotted monthly hanging man. Needless to say, exactly the same situation happened in February 2006 (first horizontal line), and the price went up after that. E.g. it was just a retracement and continuation of the trend. I think it's the same this month, I am still bullish (buying the dips), but watch for reversal patterns on weekly to stay safe, or maybe we will see some ranging next month, maybe during summer too.
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  • #11,516
  • May 28, 2011 7:04am May 28, 2011 7:04am
Yes a real test of the hang man ,also GU ,im thinking short ,under the 170p pip wick on daily ,but I will wait for $ and £ first move
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP-USD M1 28-05-11.gif Size: 15 KB
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  • #11,517
  • May 28, 2011 7:12am May 28, 2011 7:12am
Possibly after the daily/weekly move we must have a wick higher than hangman but hangman is a warning
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  • #11,518
  • May 28, 2011 7:26am May 28, 2011 7:26am
Quoting Bones
Yes a real test of the hang man ,also GU ,im thinking short ,under the 170p pip wick on daily ,but I will wait for $ and £ first move
You will have your answer on MONDAY/TUESDAY...the WEEKLY has NOW lined up with the PREVIOIS MONTHS BUEB..
either a 2 day Rally to Create a New Monthly High or End up as a HANGMAN ( or can be seen as a BULLISH PIN off RESSISTANCE now a SUPPORT )

also refer to my earlier Post regards the 1.6300 level....................http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...34#post4647234

but i wait..no hurry...

baz
  • #11,519
  • May 28, 2011 7:35am May 28, 2011 7:35am
in all honesty Baz I dont think even if it closes higher that it could be bullish ,the higher it closes the better the sell imo ,but your right I will wait
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  • #11,520
  • May 28, 2011 8:31am May 28, 2011 8:31am
I will admit Baz the TL bounce is a dilemma ,may have to wait for short next month ,OK my last go at monthly ,till it closes ,promise
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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