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USD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #24,281
  • May 26, 2011 8:01am May 26, 2011 8:01am
Quoting USD-Bear
all longs stopped very heavy drawdown, next time better listen to realjumper
Sorry about that Bear....it was a good try and it would have been great if it worked out....and it easily could have done.

Like I said before, I'm not much good at predicting things like this, but I'm not keen to do anything other than scalp this pair until after June. At the very least, it has to hold above 82...imo.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,282
  • May 26, 2011 8:15am May 26, 2011 8:15am
Quoting realjumper
Sorry about that Bear....it was a good try and it would have been great if it worked out....and it easily could have done.

Like I said before, I'm not much good at predicting things like this, but I'm not keen to do anything other than scalp this pair until after June. At the very least, it has to hold above 82...imo.
so right you are, just was way over too enthusiastic about few patterns and the overall state of UJ in general leading to over sized positions, will I ever learn?
Back to the drawing table, the VSA-book, demo trading and getting myself under control.
In the meanwhile only low risk/low profit scalping for me.
Thanks for your kind words
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #24,283
  • May 26, 2011 8:24am May 26, 2011 8:24am
That move down looks pure bollocks to me....prior to it, yen pairs were bought...and now it goes down hard!
Waiting to buy around these levels for usdjpy. Just waiting for a good PA
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #24,284
  • May 26, 2011 8:29am May 26, 2011 8:29am
Quoting kuroro001
That move down looks pure bollocks to me....prior to it, yen pairs were bought...and now it goes down hard!
Waiting to buy around these levels for usdjpy. Just waiting for a good PA
It's just a typical reaction to some less than favorable USA news. Swissy did a similar thing. This bullshit keeps on happening.....everytime this pair starts to climb, bad news 'merica smacks it back down again. That's why I want to see 82 man up and do a proper support job. Without that, then I'm not interested in this pair. The best chance this pair has of making a lasting gain is towards the end of June, and if I was Noda, when I see it start to go north at that time, I'd help it along with a series of subtle interventions.......but he won't!!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,285
  • May 26, 2011 8:50am May 26, 2011 8:50am
Hello guys,
This is my EURJPY maybe can help to someone...


Inserted Video



Cheers
Petar
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #24,286
  • May 26, 2011 10:30am May 26, 2011 10:30am
...if broke h4 low...
http://kikkichimoku.wordpress.com/20...di-h4-e-short/
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  • #24,287
  • May 26, 2011 3:00pm May 26, 2011 3:00pm
Adding another small Long to my position.

Target is 86.

Will be more than happy with 84.
  • #24,288
  • May 26, 2011 3:22pm May 26, 2011 3:22pm
Quoting realjumper
. This bullshit keeps on happening.....everytime this pair starts to climb, bad news 'merica smacks it back down again.
Part II of the USD full recovery is years away, with that I am talking about Real Estate. I would think the market has that already priced in so any good news from the R.E. front could show spectacular results. I hear the Gov. is getting ready to unload a massive amount of empty homes onto a market that that is already overburdened with too much supply.

Bad news for New Homes Sales. Why buy a New Home at inflated prices when you can one less than 5 years old at what might end up being a damn good deal. There is much opportunity awaiting out there in this market but more uncertainty because in the short term prices still have a ways to fall before this oversupply runs out. Even if the economy was booming and there is full employment it will take time for this to even out. R.E. is basicaly the number one industry in the U.S. Not only in terms of the vast amount of people it employs but in all the other businesses that depend on New Home projects to be built on a daily basis. Bad news on this front for years to come I hate to say and the U.S. can not export R.E.

If you have a healthy down payment...buy existing R.E. at these great prices only if you have the means to ride it out for the long term. The prices will come back but not in the near future.

Employment is always the last thing to turn around when coming out of a recession just as when an economy is entering a recession employment numbers are the last to show a decline. A lagging indicator some call it. I for one believe that the employment numbers will improve greatly greatly over the coming year.
  • #24,289
  • May 26, 2011 3:52pm May 26, 2011 3:52pm
http://rt.etxcapital.it-finance.com/...4428010080.png
  • #24,290
  • May 26, 2011 3:56pm May 26, 2011 3:56pm
Sorry about that folks. Am a 'Noobie' so you can forgive me this once.
Am presently long on this but am thinkin of pulling it. As you can see form my chart, its its pointing > and am thinkin it might have a savage move south? any help would be greatly appreciated,
Thanx
  • #24,291
  • May 26, 2011 4:12pm May 26, 2011 4:12pm
Quoting lukyman
Sorry about that folks. Am a 'Noobie' so you can forgive me this once.
Am presently long on this but am thinkin of pulling it. As you can see form my chart, its its pointing > and am thinkin it might have a savage move south? any help would be greatly appreciated,
Thanx
To give an appropriate answer to your question I would first need to know how heavy are you in.

I can not see going Long right now with any kind of strong position. As for myself, I just added to my Long Position but it is a very small position.

In my opinion when trading the USD/JPY scalping is a very good and safe stratedy. More than any other Pair I find that is uncanny how this Pair adheres to S/R levels and those good ole Pivot Points. Knowing where the PP are on this Pair is a must.

Dont trade them at first, just watch and see.

The questions you must ask of yourself is:

1. Why did you make the trade you made?

2. If you had no solid reasons maybe you should exit.

3. If you had good reasons but things have changed maybe you should exit.

I do not need to tell you this but do not let a manageable loser turn into a heartbreak loser.

I think it was JFK who stated, "An error doesn’t become a mistake until you refuse to correct it."

So true in this endeavor.
  • #24,292
  • May 26, 2011 5:32pm May 26, 2011 5:32pm
Quoting Astroman
To give an appropriate answer to your question I would first need to know how heavy are you in.

I can not see going Long right now with any kind of strong position. As for myself, I just added to my Long Position but it is a very small position.

In my opinion when trading the USD/JPY scalping is a very good and safe stratedy. More than any other Pair I find that is uncanny how this Pair adheres to S/R levels and those good ole Pivot Points. Knowing where the PP are on this Pair is a must.

Dont trade them at first, just watch and see....
Astroman, many thanx for yr time and wise words.. I AM learning, but oh so slowly.
Will give it a little while longer and see what 'Asia' does, then pull it.
  • #24,293
  • May 26, 2011 5:40pm May 26, 2011 5:40pm
Quoting lukyman
Astroman, many thanx for yr time and wise words.. I AM learning, but oh so slowly.
Will give it a little while longer and see what 'Asia' does, then pull it.
Sounds good to me. Like i said I added to my long term trading account as well this evening so I wish us both luck.

If your in heavy, be very careful.

I do believe it will hold above 81, if not it will stall long enough in the general area where one will have time to reevaluate their position. Do not see a big quick drop coming that happened during news releases like this morning. This Pair can react violently on (USD) news releases.
  • #24,294
  • May 26, 2011 5:43pm May 26, 2011 5:43pm
Quoting lukyman
Will give it a little while longer and see what 'Asia' does, then pull it.
Personally, I would wait for the Euro session open first unless we actually see some life in the Asia session.

Good wishes to you....hope it all works out for you.
  • #24,295
  • May 26, 2011 7:09pm May 26, 2011 7:09pm
Quoting lukyman
Sorry about that folks. Am a 'Noobie' so you can forgive me this once.
Am presently long on this but am thinkin of pulling it. As you can see form my chart, its its pointing > and am thinkin it might have a savage move south? any help would be greatly appreciated,
Thanx
Astroman has given some good advice to you. The only thing I can add is to not fall into the trap that many new traders fall into......thinking that the PA is so low, just off the historical all time low, that it cannot go lower and therefore it must go up. There are so many people who think that 'this must be the bottom because it's so low'. Don't be one of these people who convince themselves that going long is almost a certainty.

Let me be quite clear......the PA will go wherever it wants. It doesn't care that it is "so low" on our charts. If circumstances dictate that this thing maintains the trend and heads off to (say) 75 or lower, then that's what it will do!!!

The trend must be respected, and the trend is still down. There is no clear sign of reversal yet.

Does that mean 'go short?'......hell no.....it doesn't mean that at all. We don't know where, when or whether Noda will intervene again. If a short is taken, a tight SL is required, and set TP at a modest level. If you want to have a crack at a long, same thing.....tight SL is required and set TP to a modest level.

In all honesty, and with respect, this isn't the right pair for a newbie to be trading.....it's too dangerous.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,296
  • May 26, 2011 7:19pm May 26, 2011 7:19pm
Quoting Astroman
Part II of the USD full recovery is years away, with that I am talking about Real Estate. I would think the market has that already priced in so any good news from the R.E. front could show spectacular results. I hear the Gov. is getting ready to unload a massive amount of empty homes onto a market that that is already overburdened with too much supply.

Bad news for New Homes Sales. Why buy a New Home at inflated prices when you can one less than 5 years old at what might end up being a damn good deal. There is much opportunity awaiting...
Thanks for that man. R.E is always an indicator of investor confidence, that's for sure. Here in NZ it is a tradition that everyone owns their own home. However, over the past decade, house prices have risen to a level where it is beyond the reach of the first home buyers, and banks are reluctant to lend unless the purchaser can front up with not less than 20% deposit.

The consequence of this is that house prices are now falling, because first home buyers aren't buying, and property speculators aren't buying because house prices are falling! Banks aren't lending without a big deposit, and even then, they are careful about the property they invest in, because the house prices are falling!!

It's a spiral that is a self fulfilling prophesy!

It is also a great gauge of economic confidence.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,297
  • May 27, 2011 12:17am May 27, 2011 12:17am
close to demand zone
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #24,298
  • May 27, 2011 1:13am May 27, 2011 1:13am
Usd/Jpy This pair is on downtrend, retracement is at 81.40/50, low is at 80.00/10(buy with blind eyes)
  • #24,299
  • May 27, 2011 3:57am May 27, 2011 3:57am
short definitly target 80.50/80.00 look @daily ema lines!!
  • #24,300
  • May 27, 2011 9:44am May 27, 2011 9:44am
finally we broke that channel, big room for downtrend. planning to lock short for +80 pips @ 81.40.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Jl7DIzeIyP...rd+channel.png
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