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  • #201
  • May 26, 2011 7:37am May 26, 2011 7:37am
Hey guys, I was trying to decide between UCHF and GBPUSD this morning. I just hated to short the CHF, so I went with GBPUSD. I would have lost on either trade (and in reality I probably should have taken both and thus lost on both).

To the GBPUSD, was it a good trade that just lost or did I completely over look something? It still looks like a good trade that just lost, but I know I have a lot to learn.

Entry: 1.6320
SL: 1.6350
TP1: 1.6220

Reason for entering: Daily S/R at 1.6300 and this area fell right between the 50 and 61.8 Fib retracement.

Chart:
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  • #202
  • May 26, 2011 8:02am May 26, 2011 8:02am
Quoting unlv_tj
Hey guys, I was trying to decide between UCHF and GBPUSD this morning....
For ljs style, he prefers the actual fibs to line up ie 50, or 61.8, instead of inbetween the 50, 61.8. I would of liked that, plus a round number, or that and a TL.
  • #203
  • May 26, 2011 9:10am May 26, 2011 9:10am
Really curious if you don't mind, what do you think of my trade management here? Feel like I really botched this one. My fta was perhaps to minor (though my fta was at least at 1r this time), and same with my profit target. Given the trend, and the lack of anything really major in the way, do you think its worth going for more here? There was some minor daily s/r at my profit target too fyi. Mostly curious of your end target... I really was lost here.

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  • #204
  • May 26, 2011 9:50am May 26, 2011 9:50am
]
Quoting unlv_tj
Hey guys, I was trying to decide between UCHF and GBPUSD this morning....
It's not one that I took or was keen on for the following reasons:

1. It's not a very 'clean' PPZ, by this I mean it's a pretty wide area strethching from those bar lows @ 1.6315-20 to the bar highs @ 1.6290. I prefer cleaner more precise PPZ's.

2. This are is being hit for the 3rd/4th time in a relative short timeframe, again this is not something that I like - 1st time back are the best 2nd and 3rd are ok at times...but something which is being bombarded like this...not something that I'd be keen on.

3. Because the PPZ is wide there is no exact confluence - it's in the fib 'zone' but it's not lining up with anything exact.

Setups like this just dont interest me that much from a pure technical perspective for a touch trade, I like more exact PPZ's with more precise confluence and not for the pair to be displaying choppy price action and hitting an area multiple times.

But if I was to take it I would have entered where you did with the same SL, but my FTA would have been thosr former bar highs at 1.6290.

I can see three setups today (I took 2 of them and missed the EG setup) that just at a quick glance jumo out at me as being much neater setups than the GU one.

Does this make sense?
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  • #205
  • May 26, 2011 10:06am May 26, 2011 10:06am
Quoting Jlr
Really curious if you don't mind, what do you think of my trade management here? Feel like I really botched this one. My fta was perhaps to minor (though my fta was at least at 1r this time), and same with my profit target. Given the trend, and the lack of anything really major in the way, do you think its worth going for more here? There was some minor daily s/r at my profit target too fyi. Mostly curious of your end target... I really was lost here.

Attachment
This was a nice setup that I missed today.

In terms of trade management my FTA would have been the rectangle area marked on my chart and other PPZ's below are marked.

I try not to have specific targets unless it's an area I would want to take a trade in the opposite area, as the trend is currently down I would have moved to BE at the FTA and then just trailed price down i.e. as price broke and closed below each PPZ I would have moved the SL to just above each PPZ.

I do urge people not to have specific targets, not to think about a trade in terms of how much %R it is in profit or use %R to dictate trade exit decisions and to try and give a trade chance to run, it's the runners that reallly make the account grow. I often move to BE at the FTA with touch trades and then just see if price will break it and allow me to move my SL up/down further, this is really how I make some very decent account gains.
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  • #206
  • May 26, 2011 10:16am May 26, 2011 10:16am
Quoting lovejoy80
This was a nice setup that I missed today.

In terms of trade management my FTA would have been the rectangle area marked on my chart and other PPZ's below are marked.

I try not to have specific targets unless it's an area I would want to take a trade in the opposite area, as the trend is currently down I would have moved to BE at the FTA and then just trailed price down i.e. as price broke and closed below each PPZ I would have moved the SL to just above each PPZ.

I do urge people not to have specific targets, not to think about a trade...
Thanks a lot LJ, am excited to try that. Would it be different for a counter trend trade? Ie use .8670 perhaps as the target? Or do you do this most of the time regardless? Sorry, wasn't sure there.
  • #207
  • May 26, 2011 10:36am May 26, 2011 10:36am
I had entry on G/U at precisely 1.6322 (clean H4 PPZ), and FTA at 1.6305. Price hit FTA, retraced back to 1.6322 and rejected down further to the H1 highs at 1.6295. So for me it worked, twice. Wouldn't have been the greatest R/R ratio, but enough to get to BE. I didn't trade it though.

The one that didn't work for me today was E/AUD. A reasonable H4 PPZ at 1.3330 on my usual feed but quite scrappy on the MT4 feed below. Price zoomed right through. But sideways market, lack of trend (unlike E/CAD long at 1.3811, which has played out nicely to FTA despite a general Euro weakness), could probably explain that one away.

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  • #208
  • May 26, 2011 1:40pm May 26, 2011 1:40pm
Quote
The one that didn't work for me today was E/AUD. A reasonable H4 PPZ at 1.3330 on my usual feed but quite scrappy on the MT4 feed below. Price zoomed right through. But sideways market, lack of trend (unlike E/CAD long at 1.3811, which has played out nicely to FTA despite a general Euro weakness), could probably explain that one away.

I'm generally much pickier on the minor pairs when it comes to TT especially if it's a pair that I haven't traded in a while.

I would class EAUD as more of an intraday setup and by that I mean it's a small swing and based on a lower TF PPZ (i.e. lower than the daily TF). This doesn't necessarily mean it's a bad setup it just means for me it's not an A+ setup and thus when I take these I the risk I take on it is reflected accordingly as I know that these types of setups have a lower win rate than ones based on a daily PPZ, a bigger swing and on a major pair.

I also do prefer confluence from their USD counterparts too, so in this case from EU and AU where possible.

So for me I would summarise this setup as a clear intraday setup with a clear 4HR PPZ with fib confluence on a small swing. It didn't work out because of the sudden bearish Euro moves across the board which were caused by IMF comments regarding Greece etc.

You can see what I mean about it being an intraday setup by looking at my daily chart below...I don't have this area marked on my daily chart and you can see it's a small swing...so it;s just one of those intraday one's that failed...and as you stated a lack of a clear direction at the moment probably didn't help.
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  • #209
  • May 26, 2011 1:49pm May 26, 2011 1:49pm
Quoting lovejoy80
I do urge people not to have specific targets, not to think about a trade in terms of how much %R it is in profit or use %R to dictate trade exit decisions and to try and give a trade chance to run, it's the runners that reallly make the account grow. I often move to BE at the FTA with touch trades and then just see if price will break it and allow me to move my SL up/down further, this is really how I make some very decent account gains.
Exactly.

If i did not had those 3 runners this week i might have barley broke even looking at my poor win ratio ( i think its near 50%).

Held GJ for 200 pips than GU for 120 pips and AU is still running with an add-on.
.
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  • #210
  • May 26, 2011 6:44pm May 26, 2011 6:44pm
Mark, thank you so much. I very much appreciate all your time and work to explain my mistake to me. I will have many more, I am sure, but I can only learn from making mistakes. I have been at this 4 years, but until I get my head straight will I ever succeed.

Sadly, I have crappy genetics and I am addicted to weight lifting. After 17 years of lifting weights my brain is conditioned to working hard and getting no results. I can't have that in trading and I am falling into the same patterns.

Thank you again!

T.J.
  • #211
  • May 27, 2011 7:09am May 27, 2011 7:09am
Quote
The one that didn't work for me today was E/AUD. A reasonable H4 PPZ at 1.3330 on my usual feed but quite scrappy on the MT4 feed below. Price zoomed right through. But sideways market, lack of trend (unlike E/CAD long at 1.3811, which has played out nicely to FTA despite a general Euro weakness), could probably explain that one away.
Similar setup to yesterday, this one worked this time. But the key thing is any winner on this trade should have resulted in at least a 2R winner judging by the obvious troubles areas on the chart ... the average winner should be significantly higher than the average loser.
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  • #212
  • May 30, 2011 8:01pm May 30, 2011 8:01pm
Hey LJ , I know you are trading good like always,

I have a question for you , I remembered in the past you would take trades when you got in trouble for example a inverse correlated pair to offset the negative tradw. You seemed to it well , can you tell me how you did it? It could be a p.m if you don't want to write it here
  • #213
  • Jun 1, 2011 2:00am Jun 1, 2011 2:00am
Quoting jj7000
Hey LJ , I know you are trading good like always,

I have a question for you , I remembered in the past you would take trades when you got in trouble for example a inverse correlated pair to offset the negative tradw. You seemed to it well , can you tell me how you did it? It could be a p.m if you don't want to write it here

I don't remember how I did that to be honest, it must have been a fair while ago or I've just got a short memory!

I don't believe in not using defined risk or definitive SL's in my trading, I prefer to set my SL where my reasoning for taking the trade is likely proven invalid and decide on the risk as per my own risk rules.

Not using stops, price averaging etc is mostly used by people who can't accept losses IMO and are relying on the fact nothing goes straight up or down in the FX market forever, there is very little skill involved and I've not seen anyone use this type of trade 'management' technique successfully without incurring unecessary stress and floating drawdown and I've certainly not seen someone with a large account trade like this.

One of the key skills you need in trading is to realise losses are part of the cost of the business and when to accept that your reasoning for taking a trade is wrong, if you can overcome the psychological issue that some have in accepting losses you'll never blow your account or reach stupendous levels of drawdown.

People need to realise how the majority of retail traders trade and how and why they need to think different to them. Despite what some people think, the herd are not trend followers, the herd are typically counter-trend traders trying to be a hero picking tops and bottoms and adding to positions if price doesn't go there way. The great traders pick a trend, follow it and add positions as price moves in their favour, compounding their trades along the way If price doesn't move in their favour they get out and wait patiently for the next opportunity. keeping it simple and easy. Not hard to visualise the account equity curve would like with traders trading this way compared to the herd approach.

You only have to look at Oanda's positions and the myfxbook community positions to understand this.
  • #214
  • Jun 1, 2011 8:52pm Jun 1, 2011 8:52pm
Quoting lovejoy80
I don't remember how I did that to be honest, it must have been a fair while ago or I've just got a short memory!

I don't believe in not using defined risk or definitive SL's in my trading, I prefer to set my SL where my reasoning for taking the trade is likely proven invalid and decide on the risk as per my own risk rules.

Not using stops, price averaging etc is mostly used by people who can't accept losses IMO and are relying on the fact nothing goes straight up or down in the FX market forever, there is very little skill involved and I've...

Thanks LJ, for responding , I hope you have another great trading day!
  • #215
  • Jun 2, 2011 12:14am Jun 2, 2011 12:14am
Quoting jj7000
Thanks LJ, for responding , I hope you have another great trading day!
Not been trading this week as been confined to the bed with a nasty fever...but I hope some of you have been making lots of pips on the easy trades in the GBP pairs, not that difficult is it if you just trade what your charts are telling you.
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  • #216
  • Jun 2, 2011 2:53am Jun 2, 2011 2:53am
Quoting lovejoy80
Not been trading this week as been confined to the bed with a nasty fever...but I hope some of you have been making lots of pips on the easy trades in the GBP pairs, not that difficult is it if you just trade what your charts are telling you.
Feel better LJ. If you can, get some nyquil and chug that stuff down, then sleep for like 16 hours. You'll wake up feeling a lot better.
Been a pretty slow week for me, have only pulled the trigger on one setup (ended up breakeven). Had a nice setup tonight, but ended up dozing off about an hour before it triggered, and it looks like its going to be a costly nap.
Overall, things are going pretty well though, not quite where I'd like to be, but way better then I was doing just a year or so back. Your teachings have really helped a lot, and am very greatful that you share your knowledge.
  • #217
  • Jun 2, 2011 8:32pm Jun 2, 2011 8:32pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Not been trading this week as been confined to the bed with a nasty fever...but I hope some of you have been making lots of pips on the easy trades in the GBP pairs, not that difficult is it if you just trade what your charts are telling you.

You make it look so easy, I actually was looking at that pair for buying opportunities in that fall , I try to think out of the box and do the opposite whatever one else is doing, sometimes I get hit hard trading like that, I just need to keep learning and working hard.
  • #218
  • Jun 2, 2011 10:43pm Jun 2, 2011 10:43pm
Quoting Jlr
Feel better LJ. If you can, get some nyquil and chug that stuff down, then sleep for like 16 hours. You'll wake up feeling a lot better.
Been a pretty slow week for me, have only pulled the trigger on one setup (ended up breakeven). Had a nice setup tonight, but ended up dozing off about an hour before it triggered, and it looks like its going to be a costly nap.
Overall, things are going pretty well though, not quite where I'd like to be, but way better then I was doing just a year or so back. Your teachings have really helped a lot, and am very...
Thanks, slowly starting to feel better, but it's been a week off from trading for me cos of it.

Making steady progress is better than what a lot of people achieve...it's a tough old journey at times but determination, perserverence and patience often bring rewards in my experience.
  • #219
  • Jun 2, 2011 10:49pm Jun 2, 2011 10:49pm
Quoting jj7000
You make it look so easy, I actually was looking at that pair for buying opportunities in that fall , I try to think out of the box and do the opposite whatever one else is doing, sometimes I get hit hard trading like that, I just need to keep learning and working hard.
I would have bought just above the 1.6300 RN and then sold again just below the 1.64000 RN too, in both cases there was PA either as confirmation or to add another position for a quick scalp, clear obvioust initial targets for both trades too.

There has not been many opportunities this week, but the few that did present themselves were pretty rewarding and they just happened to be mostly on the GBP pairs.
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  • #220
  • Jun 3, 2011 11:55am Jun 3, 2011 11:55am
ey
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