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  • #181
  • May 25, 2011 3:37am May 25, 2011 3:37am
Quoting nasir.khan
Bold moves as LJ would say. But i like PA before news sometimes.
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Daily charts on AU and Ucad.
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  • #182
  • May 25, 2011 4:15am May 25, 2011 4:15am
Quoting lovejoy80
I wont take the opposite of your trades this time But I posted on the forum earlier this GJ trade I'm in. SL moved up to 132.20 now so just waiting to see if news can make it soar higher if not it'll be a +0.67R win.

Makes it two of us, i am still holding mine from Monday.
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  • #183
  • May 25, 2011 4:17am May 25, 2011 4:17am
Quoting nasir.khan
Makes it two of us, i am still holding mine from Monday.
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Nice

My SL has been moved to 132.50, giving price a chance to break the 132.95-133 resistance now.
  • #184
  • May 25, 2011 4:27am May 25, 2011 4:27am
Quoting lovejoy80
Nice

My SL has been moved to 132.50, giving price a chance to break the 132.95-133 resistance now.
I think it should. I have been planing longs on pounds since yesterday. It has been performing very impressively if u see the environment around, i mean there were bad numbers yesterday and than today again but look at gu and gj.

I cant see a reason why its so much strong but there is certainly some big money behind it.
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  • #185
  • May 25, 2011 5:20am May 25, 2011 5:20am
Quoting nasir.khan
I think it should. I have been planing longs on pounds since yesterday. It has been performing very impressively if u see the environment around, i mean there were bad numbers yesterday and than today again but look at gu and gj.

I cant see a reason why its so much strong but there is certainly some big money behind it.
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You're right GBP has definitely outperformed for a reason unknown to me.

But this chart might stop follow through above 133 at least for timebeing.
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  • #186
  • May 25, 2011 6:50am May 25, 2011 6:50am
Quoting lovejoy80
You're right GBP has definitely outperformed for a reason unknown to me.

But this chart might stop follow through above 133 at least for timebeing.
Nothing seems to be stopping it atm.

Would be interesting to know what's fueling this move.
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  • #187
  • Edited 10:47am May 25, 2011 10:33am | Edited 10:47am
Can i get lucky twice a day.

Uchf, An opportunity for a long at 61 fib. A conservative stop would be below 670 PPZ with FTA at 750. Not probably the best setup but the daily bar looks extended so a good chance of some correction today.


EDIT,...oops forgot the charts.
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  • #188
  • May 25, 2011 10:50am May 25, 2011 10:50am
Quoting nasir.khan
Can i get lucky twice a day.

Uchf, An opportunity for a long at 61 fib. A conservative stop would be below 670 PPZ with FTA at 750. Not probably the best setup but the daily bar looks extended so a good chance of some correction today.
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I've got a H4 PPZ at 0.8710, but I'm put off by the strong YM, and to me E/U seems to want to turn upwards. Or perhaps I'm just too cautious.
  • #189
  • May 25, 2011 11:02am May 25, 2011 11:02am
GJ. Ucad, AU still open Closed GU just now.

Also reversed GU for a short. Will be looking to buy back at zone between 50-61 fibs.
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  • #190
  • Edited 11:25am May 25, 2011 11:13am | Edited 11:25am
Quoting pmn100
I've got a H4 PPZ at 0.8710, but I'm put off by the strong YM, and to me E/U seems to want to turn upwards. Or perhaps I'm just too cautious.
Personally I think you would do well to just consider each setup on it's own merits and then look for additional confluence from elsewhere. I rarely use the way other potentially correlated assets are moving to stop me taking a technical trade that is within my rules...I found that if I do this I'm often wrong as the technical setup a lot more often that not will work out.

If you consider lots of other factors each time you want to take a trade you can easily talk yourself out of virtually every potential setup, hence why I mostly only use equities and other FX pairs for additional confluence and not as a reason not to take a trade.

Using discretion when deciding whether to take a technical setup can be hard because you are naturally being affected by your own emotions which can blur your own judgement...plus you are basing your judgement on how you 'feel' the market might move...something which isn't concrete i.e. based on actual technical evidence or experience.

Hence my point above about the way I use correlations and hence why I recommend people don't start touch trading by using correlation and using discretion, it is more important to understand what constitutes a good touch trade (well by how I analyse setups) and be able to trade these setups consistently first before trying to bring in more advanced techniques...taking one step at a time and learning all the nuances of touch trading, adapting it to your own personality, building confidence and consistently making returns using proper money management. It is possible to make very decent returns just trading the technical methods laid out in the forum and on my FF threads...I would estimate about 60-70% of my trades are based purely on technical setups alone...and my best 2 trades of the week (EG and GJ touch trade) are exactly this. IMO you should be able to make 20R+ minimum month after month trading purely the technical setups (you can see fromthe EG and GJ trades how this is easily possible).

These recommendations are all from my own personal experience of the mistakes I made along the way as I had no-one to guide me or to advise me of how best to learn and implement these kind of methods.

So for me the question I would be asking myself is does the UCHF setup represent a touch trade within my own rules and if so how much do I want to risk on it, where am I going to place my SL and what is my FTA and how will I manage the trade should price hit the FTA.

EDIT: attached are my two best trades of the week (I've taken 6 trades this week so far, haven't been around much so missed the GAUD, EJ and AJ TT's from the last 2 days) for which I'm still in with a full position on GJ and half a postion on EG - both had 15pips SL's.
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  • #191
  • May 25, 2011 11:16am May 25, 2011 11:16am
Quoting pmn100
I've got a H4 PPZ at 0.8710, but I'm put off by the strong YM, and to me E/U seems to want to turn upwards. Or perhaps I'm just too cautious.
I wont be much concerned about correlation between EU and Uchf, Cause there is't any today. UCHF fell near 80 pips today but eu is still where it was opened.

But as i said before i am just looking for a quick scalp resulting from profit taking etc so i would move my stop very quickly to BE.

In the end it's really not a very good setup to be worrying about missing it.
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  • #192
  • May 25, 2011 11:22am May 25, 2011 11:22am
Quoting lovejoy80
Personally I think you would do well to just consider each setup on it's own merits and then look for additional confluence from elsewhere. I rarely use the way other potentially correlated assets are moving to stop me taking a technical trade that is within my rules...I found that if I do this I'm often wrong as the technical setup a lot more often that not will work out.

If you consider lots of other factors each time you want to take a trade you can easily talk yourself out of virtually every potential setup, hence why I mostly only use equities...
Yep, I certainly am reactionary. Rather than anitcipating possible reversals, I look at what is happening now and it puts me of trades. i.e. I see YM with big H1 bars upwards, which to me makes me think stong E/U, and thus weak U/CHF. But that's what is happening now and of course U/CHF hitting support and 50/61 fib could be the reason to reverse the YM strength, and thus bring E/U down with it, etc.

I need to just do the technicals as you say, and ignore my ignorant correlation ideas for now until I understand them better. Or perhaps I won't even have to understand them.

Out of interest, is the U/CHF touch long an entry signal for you? Or waiting for PA?

Am liking the private forum by the way .
  • #193
  • May 25, 2011 11:43am May 25, 2011 11:43am
Quote
Yep, I certainly am reactionary. Rather than anitcipating possible reversals, I look at what is happening now and it puts me of trades. i.e. I see YM with big H1 bars upwards, which to me makes me think stong E/U, and thus weak U/CHF. But that's what is happening now and of course U/CHF hitting support and 50/61 fib could be the reason to reverse the YM strength, and thus bring E/U down with it, etc.

I need to just do the technicals as you say, and ignore my ignorant correlation ideas for now until I understand them better. Or perhaps I won't...



I don't get scared my big bars unless they are really out of the ordinary or caused by some sudden event...there is some stuff in the forum about my thoughts on this.

Exactly, that's the reason why that very subject is not open to new members because a) it's not easy, b) it's not for everyone and not needed to make consistent returns and c) it's too much for beginners learning the technical methods to take on IMO.

BTW if I was looking at equities and EU I would see them all heading into resistance...

Quote
Out of interest, is the U/CHF touch long an entry signal for you? Or waiting for PA?

The chart below should answer your question ... it missed my order though so will likely cancel now.

Quote
Am liking the private forum by the way

Thanks
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  • #194
  • May 25, 2011 2:12pm May 25, 2011 2:12pm
LJ just quick question you focus nowadays more on the touch trades or you still play the bar setups sometimes?

Regards ingmar.
  • #195
  • May 25, 2011 3:03pm May 25, 2011 3:03pm
Quoting ingmarforex
LJ just quick question you focus nowadays more on the touch trades or you still play the bar setups sometimes?

Regards ingmar.
I am not LJ but i play him on TV.

As we reach near summer trading Bar setups will get more and more tricky cause of low liquidity. Actually we can already see the effects just like Uchf 1h Buob now.

So i think touch trading most of the times and playing PA on range extreme's would be the way to go.

Sorry it does not answer your question. lol

Just wanted to share how i would be approaching trading for next 3 or so months.
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  • #196
  • May 25, 2011 3:41pm May 25, 2011 3:41pm
Quoting ingmarforex
LJ just quick question you focus nowadays more on the touch trades or you still play the bar setups sometimes?

Regards ingmar.
Yes I do trade PA too in the right circumstances. In fact I took this BEOB on UCHF today.

But as Nasir said I have noticed that the market is pretty choppy lately and has had large periods of low volatility and low momentum which is not great for PA trading and is typical of what you can experience over the summer months.

I'll always prefer touch trading as for me this offers the highest probability setups with the highest %R as you're in before the PA forms...my TT win rate is actually higher than my PA win rate.

But yes I do trade both, I'm just pretty picky on PA setups and don't typically trade daily PA or above - I use them more of a sign of expected direction and look on the lower TF's for discounted entry positions.
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  • #197
  • May 25, 2011 5:50pm May 25, 2011 5:50pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Yes I do trade PA too in the right circumstances. In fact I took this BEOB on UCHF today.

But as Nasir said I have noticed that the market is pretty choppy lately and has had large periods of low volatility and low momentum which is not great for PA trading and is typical of what you can experience over the summer months.

I'll always prefer touch trading as for me this offers the highest probability setups with the highest %R as you're in before the PA forms...my TT win rate is actually higher than my PA win rate.

But yes I do trade both,...

Thanks for the Reply LJ
  • #198
  • May 26, 2011 3:42am May 26, 2011 3:42am
Was stopped out on GU but EG worked so ended up well above BE on those 2 trades.

Opened a long in Uchf.
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  • #199
  • May 26, 2011 4:21am May 26, 2011 4:21am
Closed Ucad, EG, GJ.

Now i have longs on Uchf, Gchf and AU and a short on NU.

This has been a good week up 17.5% on closed trades and have another 5% floating.
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  • #200
  • May 26, 2011 4:26am May 26, 2011 4:26am
Quoting nasir.khan
Closed Ucad, EG, GJ.

Now i have longs on Uchf, Gchf and AU and a short on NU.

This has been a good week up 17.5% on closed trades and have another 5% floating.
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I joined you on long UCHF, smaller specualtive position based on a few things I'm seeing.

Also went long GAUD and GJ today and at BE on both.

Nice, I'm up about 19% on closed positions (5 winners,1 loser).

Off to watch the cricket now
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