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Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected

  • #7,181
  • May 20, 2011 5:51am May 20, 2011 5:51am
Final post. Done for today...best of luck this PM.
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  • #7,182
  • May 20, 2011 6:06am May 20, 2011 6:06am
Quoting medici
Final post. Done for today...best of luck this PM.

And if anyone wants some more information on the way price tends to fill its spikes there are some good resources on the No Brainer Trades website courtesy of a favourite trader of mine, Steve W (known around these parts as BillyRayValentine).

http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2011/...-removals.html

http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2009/...e-pattern.html
  • #7,183
  • May 20, 2011 6:10am May 20, 2011 6:10am
I seem to have got in on this where medici left off. I haven't been paying enough attention it seems, although I HAVE been a bit busy this morning! This pattern seems to be a horizontal flag or a wedge....can't make my mind up. Anyway, it signifies a spell of consolidation along the mid-point level. Entry and exit as shown.
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  • #7,184
  • May 23, 2011 1:23am May 23, 2011 1:23am
bear flag across 11525.
entry: 11524
exit: 11501
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  • #7,185
  • May 23, 2011 3:18am May 23, 2011 3:18am
Try to ignore all the squiggly lines.

Good day today so far if you don't try to fight the market, which my red MA and M15 20BBs clearly show is down. There were good sells available at FO and another late FH sell into LO, both of which I missed. I chalk that up to not being on my game on a Monday. After that we saw substantial volume come in at LO which suggested we may come up, but a failure to do so meant jumping back in with the trend was the best option which I did at the half hour with a target of 4000/S2. Out for +30. Could be up 70+ overall if I had been more willing to just ride the market. A lesson I'm constantly being reminded of...

Now waiting for the next trend opportunity, unless something substantial changes in the overall picture.

Edit: Even though I didn't mark it, that LO entry is also a pretty nice bear pennant breakout.
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  • #7,186
  • May 23, 2011 3:34am May 23, 2011 3:34am
Quoting Auron112
Try to ignore all the squiggly lines....

Hi !

Sweet spot 1.40500 didn't represent nothing to you ?
  • #7,187
  • May 23, 2011 3:43am May 23, 2011 3:43am
Quoting vasi
Hi !

Sweet spot 1.40500 didn't represent nothing to you ?
I mentioned that I missed that late FH trade, unfortunately. Had I taken it, the 4050 would be something to note but not TOO important. Reasoning for this would be that we had recently pushed past that level before coming up, so if we headed down again it was more likely that orders there had been cleared and that the trend would overwhelm the area. Could it hold 4050 again and provide a HL? Of course, so if a scenario like that plays out I may get out at BE or for a small loss.

The point is that you never know what level will hold, and if you always look at the nearest level and say "maybe I shouldn't trade because of that level" then you will be taking very few trades. There always seems to be one just around the corner! Sometimes it pays to play it safe, like if we were in a range or the market was fairly dead leading in to the morning. But on a day like this where we are clearly trending I am willing to risk trading into a nearby level because the trend is king.
  • #7,188
  • May 23, 2011 3:51am May 23, 2011 3:51am
Quoting Auron112
Try to ignore all the squiggly lines....
Hi Auron
I'm in good company this am missing that sell when eur pushed into the SR area below 4075.

I got into gu about 25 mins later when the push up to 6175 failed. Exiting position when 19 May lows held.
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  • #7,189
  • May 23, 2011 3:53am May 23, 2011 3:53am
Quoting Auron112
The point is that you never know what level will hold, and if you always look at the nearest level and say "maybe I shouldn't trade because of that level" then you will be taking very few trades. There always seems to be one just around the corner! Sometimes it pays to play it safe, like if we were in a range or the market was fairly dead leading in to the morning. But on a day like this where we are clearly trending I am willing to risk trading into a nearby level because the trend is king.
Good signals in and around LO will almost always (yes I know thats a bold statement) see the 1st problem area taken out. IMHO.
  • #7,190
  • May 23, 2011 4:00am May 23, 2011 4:00am
Quoting Vantage
Good signals in and around LO will almost always (yes I know thats a bold statement) see the 1st problem area taken out. IMHO.
I'll be sure to send you my address so you can mail my refund cheque the first time that bold advice goes horribly wrong. Just joking of course, and I would agree with what you're saying.

Nice GU trade. Looks like the Mistress might be bringing her whip out today...
  • #7,191
  • May 23, 2011 4:03am May 23, 2011 4:03am
Quoting Auron112
I mentioned that I missed that late FH trade, unfortunately....
Hey thanks for explaining it like that... I came to the same conclusion just couldn know how to explain it properly.
I used to had this problem where i put to much significance to every single level weather it was psych 00,50 levels or pivots or horizintal S&R. I then found myself over complicating and not taking good trend setups, because there were levels all over the place.

btw...just took 10 pip scalp over 1.4000 level... easy money
  • #7,192
  • Edited 4:07am May 23, 2011 4:04am | Edited 4:07am
Here's two nice trades that I missed this morning due to other commitments. A nice rising wedge across S1 led to a nice move down to the WS1, and this was followed by quite a large bearish flag which produced a drop of around 25 pips or so. A bit dubious about the second one, taking into account the proximity of the WS1 and then the mid-point level. Yes, the two candles that made the move were very strong momentum candles, but one can't foresee these things, unfortunately!

Edit: Sorry, V.....just realized that you've already posted one of these trades. Nice!
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  • #7,193
  • May 23, 2011 4:14am May 23, 2011 4:14am
Quoting Tilt
Hey thanks for explaining it like that... I came to the same conclusion just couldn know how to explain it properly.
I used to had this problem where i put to much significance to every single level weather it was psych 00,50 levels or pivots or horizintal S&R. I then found myself over complicating and not taking good trend setups, because there were levels all over the place.

btw...just took 10 pip scalp over 1.4000 level... easy money
I think that's exactly what makes trading so difficult, Tilt! We get it in our heads that the way to increased performance is through increased knowledge, but with that we introduce increased complexity and end up either getting paralysis through analysis or just fear of hitting the button because we now know so many reasons price can move that we ALWAYS find one against our potential position on the chart! So to me it's a matter of learning as much as you can and continually testing/tinkering but always trying to remove what is of limited use as well. In the end, it's basic concepts like the likelihood of a trend to overwhelm levels that are really going to give you a trading advantage and yet there's always that tendency to forget/ignore the simple stuff.
  • #7,194
  • May 23, 2011 6:33am May 23, 2011 6:33am
Big hello to the old gang! It's good to see EV and Islander still doing a great job with keeping this thread going nicely. It's been a hidden gem (perhaps for the better) here at FF.

EV, have you had a chance to look at Al Brook's book - I saw something on your charts which reminded me of him?..
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #7,195
  • May 23, 2011 6:47am May 23, 2011 6:47am
A bullish flag pull-back to S2 and then a fairly substantial rise beyond the mid-point level. Got out while the going was good!
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  • #7,196
  • May 23, 2011 6:52am May 23, 2011 6:52am
Quoting eyevoltage
Here's two nice trades that I missed this morning due to other commitments....
Hi ev,

I see you're back to using your good old ema 13, 34 combination...
  • #7,197
  • May 23, 2011 6:57am May 23, 2011 6:57am
Quoting Forex007
Big hello to the old gang! It's good to see EV and Islander still doing a great job with keeping this thread going nicely. It's been a hidden gem (perhaps for the better) here at FF.

EV, have you had a chance to look at Al Brook's book - I saw something on your charts which reminded me of him?..
Great to see you on here again, mate. How's tricks? No, I never managed to get into Brook's book......just never seem to have the time, and it IS a very detailed book. One needs a lot of time to really get into it and time is at something of a premium here, me old mucker.

So, is this the return of the prodigal or not?
  • #7,198
  • May 23, 2011 6:58am May 23, 2011 6:58am
Quoting pgd
Hi ev,

I see you're back to using your good old ema 13, 34 combination...
Yeah, truth to tell, I missed them!

Nice trade earlier, mate. Well done!
  • #7,199
  • May 23, 2011 7:07am May 23, 2011 7:07am
Hi all,

I just noticed that we are at the neck line of a big sloping HnS pattern on the D1 that has a technical target of about 800 pips from here!

Any comments?
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  • #7,200
  • May 23, 2011 7:20am May 23, 2011 7:20am
Quoting pgd
Hi all,

I just noticed that we are at the neck line of a big sloping HnS pattern on the D1 that has a technical target of about 800 pips from here!

Any comments?
Yeah, doesn't help me I have a tough time sticking in past +30!!
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