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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #2,601
  • May 17, 2011 1:18pm May 17, 2011 1:18pm
Quoting alexm
Excellent trade location. Keep it up.
I appreciate the vote of confidence. The price bars almost spooked me out of the trade. But I try to only look at the profile. I held longs, something made me think possibly open drive for wib. Not so immediate as 1st hr open-drive. I thought a 2 day IB may pause longer tf needing more time to develop, we didnt give back any ground. Also yest wide value area, today, va is holding at the top of yest. va imo acceptence, two sided trading. , todays pa hasnt dragged va lower. But it can all turn on a dime too. Still debating on closing 1 trade.
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,602
  • May 17, 2011 8:10pm May 17, 2011 8:10pm
Found this link here about stop hunting. And this happened during asian session this morning.

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2011/0...gun-for-stops/

I think the hardest part to analyze now is the intermediate down trend ending? or it is just rally higher to break lower?

Value is lower yesterday, price rise on low volume will attract trader to fade the up move. I'm still anticipate a test on Weekly IBL.
  • #2,603
  • May 17, 2011 11:28pm May 17, 2011 11:28pm
Quoting mzvega
Im still holding long from yest. The asian session caused me to hold. Today's pa is very similar to yest. I added to my long @ us session. London touched its DIBL and left excess. When we tested that area in the us session, it started looking like excess (buytail) so I took a long@ 1.41389. Profile looks fairly balanced. I again think price wont exceed 1.4228 area from yest. Im often wrong, but Ill monitor my position. See how this plays out

Also, at the us open, overnight inventory was long, the logical place imo to squeeze to, would be londons...
Me2, been net long noticing pickup of price all at 4150 & for GU a at 6200..with POC edging up steadily & over-nite inventory mostly long..target all the way to 4400 (POC clusters) for EU is looking more attractive..4350 will be my 1st target for today. Range of bars & volatility seems to subside hope we wont get so whipsaw like yesterday...

Yeah Alexm, 4150 & below was the target of stop hunting...that is why i always have those 50pips increment marked.
  • #2,604
  • May 18, 2011 1:58am May 18, 2011 1:58am
@ mzvega

Hi - nice long you've got I've just posted this elsewhere.....

"GM - as you've asked, and yesterday's rally was IMO unusually late in starting and thus got me thinking.....

The retrace of Monday's rally into yesterday's European close was v close to 61.8%. The US traders sold the dollar / bought € for a 160 pip rally, with decent accumulation around the lows - see the UH volume on the 4 hour spinning top. Remember the FOMC minutes are due later today.

So off this chart, I'm looking for a retrace into the fib Decision Zone - 38% to 62%, say 4400 to 4500.

Now in mid FH we are pulling back towards the 4235 / 4240 support area, also the rising hourly 20 EMA, so I'm looking for a buy signal....TWT"
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1305701065
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,605
  • May 18, 2011 3:09am May 18, 2011 3:09am
Hello Islander

Looking at your chart I noticed that time on your chart is like EST...I have GM time or brokers GM time...Is it possible to set it to EST and if not what is broker that you use that have EST? Thank you in advance.
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #2,606
  • May 18, 2011 3:21am May 18, 2011 3:21am
Quoting mima
Hello Islander

Looking at your chart I noticed that time on your chart is like EST...I have GM time or brokers GM time...Is it possible to set it to EST and if not what is broker that you use that have EST? Thank you in advance.
That chart is from ODL who work on GMT.

For EST - currently EDT - I guess you'd have to try some of the US brokers, although I dont know which
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,607
  • May 18, 2011 3:34am May 18, 2011 3:34am
Quoting Islander
That chart is from ODL who work on GMT.

For EST - currently EDT - I guess you'd have to try some of the US brokers, although I don't know which
OK, thank you ...I compared it with e-signal and H4 looks same...that is why I asked you ...US brokers also use GMT...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #2,608
  • May 18, 2011 9:14am May 18, 2011 9:14am
Quoting Islander
@ mzvega

Hi - nice long you've got I've just posted this elsewhere.....

"GM - as you've asked, and yesterday's rally was IMO unusually late in starting and thus got me thinking.....

The retrace of Monday's rally into yesterday's European close was v close to 61.8%. The US traders sold the dollar / bought € for a 160 pip rally, with decent accumulation around the lows - see the UH volume on the 4 hour spinning top. Remember the FOMC minutes are due later today.

[i]So off this chart, I'm looking for a retrace into the fib...
Thanks for posting the chart! I overlook may different levels. I need to incorporate these levels on my charts. I too have somewhat of a long bias today. Im still long @1.40874. Closed one long @ 1.42660 durning asian session. I too am looking to add. I added this morn @ 1.4210 on a fail to exceed ny ibl & test of yest vah. Ill see how this unfolds. Again thanx for posting a chart. Any charts on the GU? Trying to get alittle familiar with the pair.
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,609
  • May 18, 2011 9:27am May 18, 2011 9:27am
Quoting mzvega
Thanks for posting the chart! I overlook may different levels. I need to incorporate these levels on my charts. I too have somewhat of a long bias today. Im still long @1.40874. Closed one long @ 1.42660 durning asian session. I too am looking to add. I added this morn @ 1.4210 on a fail to exceed ny ibl & test of yest vah. Ill see how this unfolds. Again thanx for posting a chart. Any charts on the GU? Trying to get alittle familiar with the pair.

This is from around the London Open when I was wondering if the retrace into the monthly VA and the fibbo level would be viable and take out that weekly VPOC level.

Since then, the BOE Minutes have sent cable ~150 pips south and we've yet to see if this is just a shakeout or a continuation move....TWT - or the FOMC Minutes in a couple of hours!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,610
  • May 18, 2011 9:43am May 18, 2011 9:43am
Quoting Islander
This is from around the London Open when I was wondering if the retrace into the monthly VA and the fibbo level would be viable and take out that weekly VPOC level.

Since then, the BOE Minutes have sent cable ~150 pips south and we've yet to see if this is just a shakeout or a continuation move....TWT - or the FOMC Minutes in a couple of hours!
Oh wow! Great charts!!! I love your simpicity!
I really do need to examine other pairs other than eu. Thanx!
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,611
  • Edited May 19, 2011 12:02am May 18, 2011 11:34pm | Edited May 19, 2011 12:02am
Yesterdays London session Balance structure of a Normal Variation Day seems provide the precursor for the moves in NY.

With opening on NY drive down from open only to be reverse back up to be close above London session low-indicating strengths coming in. This session end up mostly long.

So today asia session opening was to watch for reaction on Previous NY POC. Then, price opening drive hardly venture down to POC & stay above it with narrow IB.

Price broke out of IB & rally above all the previous sessions high.

My long entry is on pullback low on the test of yesterdays high or asia session high.

Not sure how it goes...initial risk to trade is at 4270..

Its been quiet in here lately..any comments is welcome

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Addendum: Daily profile here showing one-time-framing up & target levels to 4350 & 4400 (VPOC). Curernt moves may be a reparation for the anomalies on the left..
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  • #2,612
  • May 18, 2011 11:41pm May 18, 2011 11:41pm
won't the profiles be different for most people due to broker start times?
  • #2,613
  • May 18, 2011 11:45pm May 18, 2011 11:45pm
Quoting Nverstop
won't the profiles be different for most people due to broker start times?
Just configure the session start time in the indi. Shift or adjust according to your broker time in relation to major market open time.
  • #2,614
  • May 19, 2011 12:09am May 19, 2011 12:09am
Quoting Evak
Just configure the session start time in the indi. Shift or adjust according to your broker time in relation to major market open time.
What start time do you use? and thx for the answer herp derp on my part lol.
  • #2,615
  • May 19, 2011 5:22am May 19, 2011 5:22am
Quoting Evak
Yesterdays London session Balance structure of a Normal Variation Day seems provide the precursor for the moves in NY.

With opening on NY drive down from open only to be reverse back up to be close above London session low-indicating strengths coming in. This session end up mostly long.

So today asia session opening was to watch for reaction on Previous NY POC. Then, price opening drive hardly venture down to POC & stay above it with narrow IB.

Price broke out of IB & rally above all the previous sessions high.

My long entry is on pullback...
Earlier trades was scratch as EU decided to test 4220 area.

Super wide IB suggest shorterm traders in control with limited rx, may to asia session VAH at most. Ideal trade location would then be below IBL.

My re-entry was made after LO..

Took out 1st position on target of previous session POC, remaining on hold..

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  • #2,616
  • May 19, 2011 5:28am May 19, 2011 5:28am
Quoting Nverstop
What start time do you use? and thx for the answer herp derp on my part lol.
Most here use Tokyo open for whole day session, really depends on what session u trade..
  • #2,617
  • May 19, 2011 9:49am May 19, 2011 9:49am
Quoting mzvega
Thanks for posting the chart! I overlook may different levels. I need to incorporate these levels on my charts. I too have somewhat of a long bias today. Im still long @1.40874. Closed one long @ 1.42660 durning asian session. I too am looking to add. I added this morn @ 1.4210 on a fail to exceed ny ibl & test of yest vah. Ill see how this unfolds. Again thanx for posting a chart. Any charts on the GU? Trying to get alittle familiar with the pair.
Still holding my previous longs. I should have closed one for a little tp @ london open. But anyway, added to the position. Im not sure how much more this up move has. But, Ill hold it for awhile. I may tp on one.Take something off the table. Ive taken the same trades @ the same place (relative to the IB) @ the same time all week interseting........
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,618
  • May 19, 2011 10:29am May 19, 2011 10:29am
Hi Claudia, for me, I see two p profile today n yesterday, I'm still not convince the price will push back any time to 1.49
  • #2,619
  • Edited 11:20am May 19, 2011 11:08am | Edited 11:20am
Quoting alexm
Hi Claudia, for me, I see two p profile today n yesterday, I'm still not convince the price will push back any time to 1.49
I have been observing day types closely, for my end of day data. As per the MP videos I posted, there are days you cant quite indentify. P isnt classified as a "day type" so how would you identify the day type? Not quite nor var, not quite neutral. What makes them "not quite"? They are incomplete. So depending on pa an "Incomplete Neutral Distribution" that closes on its highs/hows, will more often than not, complete the distribution the next day. So with that in mind I continue to hold my longs. There are no set rules I follow, Im mostly observing, and experimenting. If I have my analysis correct we have been one timframing on the daily profiles. If otf is net long, who needs to cover shorts? So the "short covering rally" profile (relative to where we have come from) it doesnt seem to make sense to me. I could be all wrong in this idea. But imo its worth observation.

Edit: the wib pa has seemed like open-drive imo
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,620
  • May 19, 2011 7:01pm May 19, 2011 7:01pm
Quoting mzvega
I have been observing day types closely, for my end of day data. As per the MP videos I posted, there are days you cant quite indentify. P isnt classified as a "day type" so how would you identify the day type? Not quite nor var, not quite neutral. What makes them "not quite"? They are incomplete. So depending on pa an "Incomplete Neutral Distribution" that closes on its highs/hows, will more often than not, complete the distribution the next day. So with that in mind I continue to hold my longs. There are no set rules I follow, Im mostly...
Yes, claudia.

Your observation on Daily chart OTF up and weekly PA open drive is right.
On 30 min chart I see each drop is being bought as well.

But the problem is that each high push up mostly are on low volume.

On my daily chart price bounce from 4080 which is the 100 SMA, this is indeed a tough time to analyze the market.

I'm in the state of cognitive resonance.
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