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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #2,581
  • May 11, 2011 8:16pm May 11, 2011 8:16pm
Quoting Evak
Agree....
i have my sights sets on 4250 to 4150...

Chart set to LO:
Attachment
similar levels for me...entry a bit higher at Tokyo DIBH @4265, 1st target 4150, and if no major stopping volume there, aiming for weekly DIBL ~4050

note 4150 & 4050 are the VAH/VAL of the week of March 27th.
Change is the only constant
  • #2,582
  • May 12, 2011 2:47am May 12, 2011 2:47am
Quoting tgwhbb
similar levels for me...entry a bit higher at Tokyo DIBH @4265, 1st target 4150, and if no major stopping volume there, aiming for weekly DIBL ~4050

note 4150 & 4050 are the VAH/VAL of the week of March 27th.
My EU & EJ did not hit my sell limit so entry was done on European open in anticipation of this downdraft...almost nearing to my SL level b4 it U-turn down...

Edit: reduce exposure for EU at 4150 & EJ at 114.5...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_07 May. 12 17.45.gif Size: 50 KB
  • #2,583
  • May 12, 2011 5:26am May 12, 2011 5:26am
Quoting Evak
My EU & EJ did not hit my sell limit so entry was done on European open in anticipation of this downdraft...almost nearing to my SL level b4 it U-turn down...

Edit: reduce exposure for EU at 4150 & EJ at 114.5...

Attachment
nice! M15/M5 showing weakness just prior to NY open. Short at 4160. targeting weekly DIBL @4060. But buying coming in at current IB low ~4144...tread carefully...SL set to BE just in case...i keep repeating to myself that IN usually mark the high or low of the day...Londonand tokyo marked the high...will NY mark the low? I don't think so, but let's see...
Change is the only constant
  • #2,584
  • May 12, 2011 9:25am May 12, 2011 9:25am
Quoting tgwhbb
nice! M15/M5 showing weakness just prior to NY open. Short at 4160. targeting weekly DIBL @4060. But buying coming in at current IB low ~4144...tread carefully...SL set to BE just in case...i keep repeating to myself that IN usually mark the high or low of the day...Londonand tokyo marked the high...will NY mark the low? I don't think so, but let's see...
What does IN stand for?

Thanks.
  • #2,585
  • May 12, 2011 9:42am May 12, 2011 9:42am
Quoting smittens4212
What does IN stand for?

Thanks.
typo IN=IB, initial balance
Change is the only constant
  • #2,586
  • May 13, 2011 10:08am May 13, 2011 10:08am
seems the thread has been quiet lately...i was concentrating on the charts this morning because the up move from yesterday looks suspicious with the day closing with very high volume yesterday but with very little progress up.

here's my analisys in hind sight. had a terrible week honestly, frustrating, full of emotions, etc. but made up for it today.

woke up to see london IB make the high around 4330, just above the weekly IBL. Given EU had a daily close below the weekly IBL on wednesday, i was still biased to the down side. the candlestick chart shows the weakness just prior to NY open. IMO the profile also showed it with a 'b' shape london profile (and value lower at the time) as seen on the left of the image.

I shorted the close of that ultra high volume up bar on the bar chart, which failed to take out the London IBH, set the NY IBH and closed on the low. To be honest, given the ultra wide London IB, i was not expecting EU to move that far today. A wide IB generally indicates less chance to be extended, but if it is extended represents the other-timeframe is in control. On the 30 minute chart close below the london IBL, i added to my short on the backtest of the NY IBL/weekly IBL. The first target was VAL but seeing the strong down move i actually managed to hold all the way to the weekly DIBL. TP was set and triggered.

It feels good to end a frustrating week like this.

Have a good weekend!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 2011-05-13 at 12.48.17 PM.jpg Size: 143 KB
Change is the only constant
  • #2,587
  • May 13, 2011 8:55pm May 13, 2011 8:55pm
I'm still around folks! Just been busy had some killer shifts to pull at work.



Been making a trade here and there. Nothing major - like I'd like it to be. We can't let this thread die!



I'll start posting my nightly analysis here as well come Sunday. Maybe it'll be of some value to the thread!

See you then!
  • #2,588
  • May 13, 2011 10:41pm May 13, 2011 10:41pm
Quoting tgwhbb
seems the thread has been quiet lately...i was concentrating on the charts this morning because the up move from yesterday looks suspicious with the day closing with very high volume yesterday but with very little progress up.

here's my analisys in hind sight....
I was long initially just seconds b4 the news, then the Ultra High vol appears & my brother call me & to short instead coz he could see sellers hitting the bids like no business,lol. Took profits for the long then waited for break of IBL. What a ride.

Very nice call to short on the close of the Ultra high volume bar.

Yeah the wide IB put me off too but i was given it some reservation prior to the CPI news.

Nice analysis overall...

BTW: did u receive my goodie bag from JD? just checking as i may have miss some name in the list when I PM.
  • #2,589
  • May 14, 2011 5:11am May 14, 2011 5:11am
Quoting Evak

BTW: did u receive my goodie bag from JD? just checking as i may have miss some name in the list when I PM.
got your pm, but haven't had the time to go through all the material

Thx!
Change is the only constant
  • #2,590
  • May 15, 2011 6:42pm May 15, 2011 6:42pm
EU broke April's low, one-timeframing on monthly has therefore stopped. Also building value at top of March's value, so reasonable target would be March VAL ~3784...

good week to all...
Change is the only constant
  • #2,591
  • May 15, 2011 11:58pm May 15, 2011 11:58pm
Some interesting references moving forward using Quarterly profiles...

In the short-term, perhaps a recovering is in order back up to 4300 (previous week low) prior to any further down moves?

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  • #2,592
  • May 16, 2011 7:24am May 16, 2011 7:24am
The thread has been very quite. I havent had a chance to post. I have been suffering from severe technical dificulties. Spent all weekend reinstalling my OS. But Im almost back to normal. Just wanted to post trade I took asian session. We opened below fri val out of balance. I placed a long at the break of the high of the weekend high. Im thinking it may stall @ thurs poc or vah 1.42285. Ill hold alittle while longer. I havent done much analysis, though. Any ideas?
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,593
  • May 16, 2011 7:29am May 16, 2011 7:29am
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
Hi, is there any of you who has experience with investors RT platform? From what I see is one of the best for using market profile, but I'm not sure about the rest...thanks
  • #2,594
  • May 16, 2011 2:07pm May 16, 2011 2:07pm
Quoting mzvega
The thread has been very quite. I havent had a chance to post. I have been suffering from severe technical dificulties. Spent all weekend reinstalling my OS. But Im almost back to normal. Just wanted to post trade I took asian session. We opened below fri val out of balance. I placed a long at the break of the high of the weekend high. Im thinking it may stall @ thurs poc or vah 1.42285. Ill hold alittle while longer. I havent done much analysis, though. Any ideas?
glad to se your computer is back up and running. i'm traveling on business this week so won't be posting much either. 4228 looks like it was spot on, EU reversed just slightly above that...

today looks like a similar setup like last week, where monday set the weekly IB, let's see what tomorrow brings. IMO today was a backtest of April VAL. There are many monthly naked POCs below us, first one being March's ~3964. That is my first target followed by March VAL @3784.
Change is the only constant
  • #2,595
  • May 16, 2011 5:19pm May 16, 2011 5:19pm
looking at today's profile more closely, i think there is less risk to be long at the moment.

First, Monday's POC was established solely in Asia, and was then tested and rejected in london (W period on my chart).

Second, as noted, there are many anomalies in today's structure, which IMO will need to be repaired.

3rd, value was accepted in Friday's VA during NY session, and the top represents a poor high with lack of selling tail.

While ultimately i still believe EU will revisit the 3800 area, it probably has to do some repair work up here first. 4290 seems like a good first top side target.

Thoughts?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU TPO D 2011-05-16 at 8.11.33 PM.png Size: 129 KB
Change is the only constant
  • #2,596
  • May 16, 2011 6:33pm May 16, 2011 6:33pm
Quoting tgwhbb
looking at today's profile more closely, i think there is less risk to be long at the moment.

First, Monday's POC was established solely in Asia, and was then tested and rejected in london (W period on my chart).

Second, as noted, there are many anomalies in today's structure, which IMO will need to be repaired.

3rd, value was accepted in Friday's VA during NY session, and the top represents a poor high with lack of selling tail.

While ultimately i still believe EU will revisit the 3800 area, it probably has to do some repair work up here...
Interesting.....Im thinking along those lines. Asia opened narrow IB on high vol, indication of a trend day, as it was yesterday as well. Each sessions IB yesterday tested its IBL, leaving buy tail for that session, kind of like one time framing on a per session. With that in mind I continue to hold my long @1.40874. Just curious to see what happens.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,597
  • May 16, 2011 7:42pm May 16, 2011 7:42pm
Quoting mzvega
Interesting.....Im thinking along those lines. Asia opened narrow IB on high vol, indication of a trend day, as it was yesterday as well. Each sessions IB yesterday tested its IBL, leaving buy tail for that session, kind of like one time framing on a per session. With that in mind I continue to hold my long @1.40874. Just curious to see what happens.
I reverse my long to shorts yesterday after price stalls just below 3xIB & still holding but seeing strength coming down in this pullback low, I think soon it will be ripe to reverse back up. I am thinking around DVAL of my chart around 1.4100-ish which is around fib retracement of 79%. Or I'll will get in by European open which ever comes 1st.

Chart set on LO
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,598
  • May 17, 2011 5:05am May 17, 2011 5:05am
Looks like monday range will set the weekly IB.

I'm anticipating price will test weekly DIBL target at 1.3852

So far we have no sign of daily bracketing PA, will find opportunity to short further.

ya, run with the herd.
  • #2,599
  • Edited 7:13am May 17, 2011 7:07am | Edited 7:13am
Quoting mzvega
Interesting.....Im thinking along those lines. Asia opened narrow IB on high vol, indication of a trend day, as it was yesterday as well. Each sessions IB yesterday tested its IBL, leaving buy tail for that session, kind of like one time framing on a per session. With that in mind I continue to hold my long @1.40874. Just curious to see what happens.
Im still holding long from yest. The asian session caused me to hold. Today's pa is very similar to yest. I added to my long @ us session. London touched its DIBL and left excess. When we tested that area in the us session, it started looking like excess (buytail) so I took a long@ 1.41389. Profile looks fairly balanced. I again think price wont exceed 1.4228 area from yest. Im often wrong, but Ill monitor my position. See how this plays out

Also, at the us open, overnight inventory was long, the logical place imo to squeeze to, would be londons IBL area, for stops and weak longs.
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,600
  • May 17, 2011 8:22am May 17, 2011 8:22am
Quoting mzvega
Im still holding long from yest. The asian session caused me to hold. Today's pa is very similar to yest. I added to my long @ us session. London touched its DIBL and left excess. When we tested that area in the us session, it started looking like excess (buytail) so I took a long@ 1.41389. Profile looks fairly balanced. I again think price wont exceed 1.4228 area from yest. Im often wrong, but Ill monitor my position. See how this plays out

Also, at the us open, overnight inventory was long, the logical place imo to squeeze to, would be londons...
Excellent trade location. Keep it up.
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