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  • #141
  • May 19, 2011 5:42am May 19, 2011 5:42am
Stopped on my trailing stops on GU and Uchf so out at little profits.

EU, Ucad and AU still going on i just added a long on EU.

I almost went on to post a chart about Echf's breakout setup long but we dont trade and discuss breakout trades here so i passed. But it did went back down again and gave a Bullish PB on 1h which i would have taken but i was not trading at that time.

Anyways just took these touch trades with large stop's cause maybe price will do a little spike up. But my main focus would be to go long on Echf @ 575.
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  • #142
  • May 19, 2011 6:52am May 19, 2011 6:52am
Quoting nasir.khan
I feel something about to happen in Yen's. Specially commodities one's like NJ and AJ.
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Picked NJ.

Stop at BE now, cant say if price will come back to hit BRN @ 65.
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  • #143
  • May 19, 2011 7:59am May 19, 2011 7:59am
Quoting nasir.khan
Stopped on my trailing stops on GU and Uchf so out at little profits.

EU, Ucad and AU still going on i just added a long on EU.

I almost went on to post a chart about Echf's breakout setup long but we dont trade and discuss breakout trades here so i passed. But it did went back down again and gave a Bullish PB on 1h which i would have taken but i was not trading at that time.

Anyways just took these touch trades with large stop's cause maybe price will do a little spike up. But my main focus would be to go long on Echf @ 575.
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Nasir, thank you so much with these detailed explanations. I have a few questions regarding these trades that I think will help me tremendously.

#1) Adding to the EU Long. I think there is a lot of room to move up to 1.4350 but it seems price just wants to chop around 1.4250. What made you want to go long even more? My guess is you feel the sell off from last week still has not retraced enough, so the EURUSD needs to retrace further before it can continue down, so going long is a greater possibility.

#2) The EURCHF, very interesting trade. The 1.2575 level as you pointed out was a very strong PPZ, especially on the 4H chart. And I can see price has made sort of a double bottom on the daily chart and price is winding up so we can expect a strong little pop in one direction or the other. What made you want to short a currency as strong as the CHF?

Thank you for posting your trades.

T.J.
  • #144
  • May 19, 2011 10:42am May 19, 2011 10:42am
Hey lovejoy, i ve been going through your posts in the journal and noticed alot of trades that are breaks of PPZ. How do you approach this kind of trades, what do you look for? How do you "know" its not a overshoot and then a rejection?
  • #145
  • May 19, 2011 10:56am May 19, 2011 10:56am
Quoting unlv_tj
Nasir, thank you so much with these detailed explanations....
#1) Well i have some fundamental reasons behind eu and gu longs. ECB said that they wont accept Greece Debt as collateral for liquidity if the restructuring happens, also it could develop into a domino effect on world economy as USA said that Greece is bigger for them too.

Now based on these views i think its a matter of time and some high inflation numbers before EU starts to resume it's up trend (Ceteris paribus). Thus my tries to get in long.

Now above are my personal views and anyone can agree or disagree.

You are right about the long trade that i added but it took me some time to realize my mistake but not to longs before i cut it for a loss of just 2 pips.

2#) Well i told u above my fundy views on EURO.

But i can explain this one with pure technical reasons too. Look at 575 PPZ in 1h and 4h TF, You will see how it was holding price down below it and every time price came near it it sent the price back down almost to the pip.

But what happens when u keep on hitting a wall with a hammer.??????

Also u will notice that how Echf was making higher lows too where i draw a small trend line.

Now putting this all together, it was obvious that once price breaks 575 PPZ it will shoot straight to 610 but i was not interested in it cause i dont trade aggressive breakout trades. But i would have taken that lousy Pin bar just before the breakout but was not trading at that time.

Now those were the reasons to long Echf. Why i went short? It was based more on Correlations which i cant discuss here. Hope u understand.

P.S, Just missed my touch trade long at 575 while writing this post. So i hope it was worth something.lol
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  • #146
  • May 19, 2011 11:00am May 19, 2011 11:00am
Quoting fxlan
Hey lovejoy, i ve been going through your posts in the journal and noticed alot of trades that are breaks of PPZ. How do you approach this kind of trades, what do you look for? How do you "know" its not a overshoot and then a rejection?
Do you mean pure breakout trades i.e. trading a pure break of a PPZ?
  • #147
  • May 19, 2011 11:07am May 19, 2011 11:07am
Quoting nasir.khan
But my main focus would be to go long on Echf @ 575.
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Nothing Voodoo fellas, a simple Touch trade here.
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  • #148
  • May 19, 2011 11:25am May 19, 2011 11:25am
Yes pure break of PPZ. These are some examples (i just scaned quickly). Something like that
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  • #149
  • May 19, 2011 12:49pm May 19, 2011 12:49pm
Nasir, thank you very much. Your long detailed explanation will not go in vein. I will learn greatly from it.

I could see a good move up for the EURUSD, at least before it breaks down again. So I still think going long is a good possibility at this time. I think it has room to move up before it will decide to keep going up or continue down. But I havent seen a strong break I want to get on it, so I am staying out.

As for the EURCHF, thank you very much. I considered the break long, but in the back of my mind I was thinking "yea, it probably will break strong, but do you really want to go short what has been the strongest major currency as of late". I should have listened to the charts.

Sorry you missed getting long again on the return trip to 1.2575. I should have put an order here for today only, expecting it to return and jumping on for the long push again. UGH!!! I need more chart time to be confident with a pair moving against me being a good thing if it is to college buyers/sellers at the PPZ.
  • #150
  • May 19, 2011 12:58pm May 19, 2011 12:58pm
Quoting fxlan
Yes pure break of PPZ. These are some examples (i just scaned quickly). Something like that
I don't really trade like that anymore, the market was certainly more condusive to aggressive breakout style trading back then, but I'm more conservative these days and prefer to wait for the higher probability setups.

The only time I do play pure breakouts is:

a) when the market is very fast moving normally caused by news where it's obvious price is not gonna look back
b) to add to existing positions, so for example if I'm in a touch trade and price is moving with good momentum then I might add further positions on a pure breakout, using the fact I have good profit from the inital position to bank against.

But if you trade pure breakouts you gotta be prepared for a fair amount of losses IMO because you will get a fair share of false ones, especially when markets are slow moving, ranging and choppy.
  • #151
  • May 19, 2011 3:11pm May 19, 2011 3:11pm
Quoting lovejoy80
I don't really trade like that anymore, the market was certainly more condusive to aggressive breakout style trading back then, but I'm more conservative these days and prefer to wait for the higher probability setups.

The only time I do play pure breakouts is:

a) when the market is very fast moving normally caused by news where it's obvious price is not gonna look back
b) to add to existing positions, so for example if I'm in a touch trade and price is moving with good momentum then I might add further positions on a pure breakout, using...
Thanks for the answer
  • #152
  • May 19, 2011 3:56pm May 19, 2011 3:56pm
Quoting fxlan
Thanks for the answer
No worries...these are the types of trades which are my bread and butter these days...
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  • #153
  • May 20, 2011 5:05am May 20, 2011 5:05am
Hi LJ

When you look for the 50/61 fib retrace, do you always want to see correlations with other pairs and/or the DOW? As an example, I'm seeing A/U approach 50/61 fib resistance at 1.0710 right now but G/Us a fair way away from similar 50/61 fib resistance at 1.6320, and E/U doesn't have any decent resistance for some time with the 50/61 fib of the recent swing some way away. The DOW has already bumped off it's 50 fib but could react again at the 61 fib at 12670, still some way away.

What would you do in this situation? Forget A/U shorts, it'll probably pop above resistance at 1.0710? Look for PA to short? Consider a TT anyway?

And similarly, if you saw some PA on a pair, i.e. A/U printed a bearish pin at resistance 1.7010, but there were still no signs of weakness on other USD pairs, would you skip it? Take it but with a mind for a quick TP?

I know this is somewhat generic, and can depend on a few more factors like exactly how strong is the PPZ for example, but as a general rule is it possible to answer those questions?

Thanks again
  • #154
  • May 20, 2011 5:52am May 20, 2011 5:52am
Quoting pmn100
Hi LJ

When you look for the 50/61 fib retrace, do you always want to see correlations with other pairs and/or the DOW?...
I don't necessarily need 'correlated confluence' to take a trade e.g. AU for example. If the technical setup is good enough I'll take the setup regardless of what the other pairs are doing (most of the time) as most of the time if you trade what your chart is telling you now it will work out one way or another, even if you can't forsee it happening. I try not to overthink things and trade what my charts are telling me right now, so an A+ setup on AU for example...I wouldnt mind what Dow was doing or other usd pairs were doing as they dont move in sync bar by bar and correlations are not 100%, lastly that AU A+ setup could be the leader for others in anycase....but the point is, if I have correlated confluence then great, but if I don't and its an individual A+ setup then I'm gonna take it virtually every time.


Of course if you have correlated confluence this just turns the setup into a more powerful one.

EU did hit resistance and fib confluence when AU and NU hit their confluenced resistance areas too...none of them are A+ in my eyes as price has hit these areas few times now.

If you're interested in looking at a very recent series of setups that had correlated confluence then take a look at EURX daily +1HR chart and then 4HR charts (fxpro) of the Euro crosses....now that is good correlated confluence, turning average individual setups into very decent probability ones.

Then after looking at this take a look at the 1HR charts on EP and YM (1hour after the previous charts) and the 4HR feed off EJ and EU on Alpari.

Quite a lot to take in, but I'm sure you can work it out.

  • #155
  • May 20, 2011 12:14pm May 20, 2011 12:14pm
Quoting lovejoy80
I don't necessarily need 'correlated confluence' to take a trade e.g. AU for example. If the technical setup is good enough I'll take the setup regardless of what the other pairs are doing (most of the time) as most of the time if you trade what your chart is telling you now it will work out one way or another, even if you can't forsee it happening. I try not to overthink things and trade what my charts are telling me right now, so an A+ setup on AU for example...I wouldnt mind what Dow was doing or other usd pairs were doing as they dont move in...
Okay, I've just downloaded Alpari and ForexLtd and am having a hard time correlating all their different bar times, but I think I see what happened.

Firstly, EURX is at something of resistance (not 50/61 fib), and the H1 is showing a triple top and a nice H1 BEOB. At the same time FxPro Euro crosses post H4 BEOBs? Is that correct?

Next I'm a little unsure of but I think EP and YM posted H1 BEOBs one hour later and Alpari E/U posted a H4 BEOB? Is that right? (my E/J feed is screwed so can't see that).
  • #156
  • May 20, 2011 2:26pm May 20, 2011 2:26pm
Quoting pmn100
Okay, I've just downloaded Alpari and ForexLtd and am having a hard time correlating all their different bar times, but I think I see what happened.

Firstly, EURX is at something of resistance (not 50/61 fib), and the H1 is showing a triple top and a nice H1 BEOB. At the same time FxPro Euro crosses post H4 BEOBs? Is that correct?

Next I'm a little unsure of but I think EP and YM posted H1 BEOBs one hour later and Alpari E/U posted a H4 BEOB? Is that right? (my E/J feed is screwed so can't see that).
You got it
  • #157
  • May 20, 2011 3:26pm May 20, 2011 3:26pm
Quoting lovejoy80
You got it
This is probably the wrong view I have, but if EUR pairs have BEOBs, of course EURX is going to have a BEOB because its made up of EUR pairs data. Similarly, if there is a BEOB on EURX, there will likely be BEOBs on some EUR pairs. So does it really give an added confluence? Or was it the signal that EURX resistance was going to hold (with the triple top + big BEOB) that gave you the go ahead to take bearish PA on the EUR pairs?

And then the DOW started to sell off. Was that the EUR leading the DOW down? And that then gave you the go ahead to look for further EURO shorts?

Because even though that makes sense to me, i.e. EURX posts BEOB, DOW posts BEOB, EURO pairs post bearish PA, which you then enter short on. But, like some PA, it can fail. And the EURX BEOB can fail, which would mean EURO is going up, so the DOW BEOB would likely fail, and subsequently, the EURO pairs PA you entered on could fail.

i.e. all this correlation is good, but correlation is correlation. It can all fail together, as easily as it could all work together. Does that make sense?

Would it be possible for you to explain what PA you entered on, or you would have entered on, within that 2 hour period explained above? That would help me understand what you see first and when you act.

I really appreciate this help Mark. I can feel it coming together, and I will join your group sometime soon. Have a good weekend.
  • #158
  • May 20, 2011 5:25pm May 20, 2011 5:25pm
Quote
This is probably the wrong view I have, but if EUR pairs have BEOBs, of course EURX is going to have a BEOB because its made up of EUR pairs data. Similarly, if there is a BEOB on EURX, there will likely be BEOBs on some EUR pairs. So does it really give an added confluence? Or was it the signal that EURX resistance was going to hold (with the triple top + big BEOB) that gave you the go ahead to take bearish PA on the EUR pairs?
Just because EURX has a BEOB doesn't mean all Euro pairs will have BEOB's. It's more the location of the EURX BEOB ... it was a BEOB at a daily/weekly PPZ (see the weekly and 1HR chart below).

At the same time of course we have 4HR BEOB's on the Euro crosses..individually, I wouldn't have traded any of them, the location of the PA and the PA itself was average at best.

But collectively it's a different story (well it is for me) ... with EURX forming that BEOB off weekly/daily resistance this was a big sign and for all those pairs to also have PA this for me is great correlated confluence. As I said individually each one would have been a no trade for me but collectively it is a set of high probability setups.


Quote
And then the DOW started to sell off. Was that the EUR leading the DOW down? And that then gave you the go ahead to look for further EURO shorts?
Yes, the following hour YM and EP formed 1HR BEOB's of their channel tops + PPZ, this said to me to expect a bout of risk aversion (which as you said was likely cause by the Euro falling, but the cause does not matter as I'm focusing on technical analysis here) ... and at the same time EJ and EU formed 4HR BEOB's on Alpari UK feed off daily resistance...so the YM/EP setups were additional correlated confluence to the EJ + EU setups (due to the correlation between falling stocks and USD/JPY)

It was also a good sign that EURX was going to fall further and hence the Euro crosses were gonna drop further too.

Quote
Because even though that makes sense to me, i.e. EURX posts BEOB, DOW posts BEOB, EURO pairs post bearish PA, which you then enter short on. But, like some PA, it can fail. And the EURX BEOB can fail, which would mean EURO is going up, so the DOW BEOB would likely fail, and subsequently, the EURO pairs PA you entered on could fail.

i.e. all this correlation is good, but correlation is correlation. It can all fail together, as easily as it could all work together. Does that make sense?
Well yeah anything can fail in trading, nothing is 100%, but what I do is tip the scales in my favour as much as possible so that the setups have a high probability of success.

When you get many things lining up then the chance of the setups failing are small. A BEOB out by itself in the middle of congestion is not high probability. A BEOB at daily resistance has a good probability of going to a FTA. A BEOB at daily resistance on a pair e.g. like the EU one which has correlated confluence with another EUR pair i.e. EJ and correlated confluence with the likes of EP/YM ... then this becomes a high probability trade in my book.

The difference between the 2 sets of trades, was that EURX for me was a trade in its own right (I dont trade it though) and because of this it was telling me that all those 'crappy' BEOB's on EG, ECAD, ENZD, EAUD actually had a very good chance of working out.

With YM/EP and EJ+EU they were all tradable setups in their own right (for me) but the fact we had multiple correlated pairs showing the same thing makes these individual trades a highe probability setup than normal.


Quote
Would it be possible for you to explain what PA you entered on, or you would have entered on, within that 2 hour period explained above? That would help me understand what you see first and when you act.
I didn't react fast enough to take the first set of trades, but I took EU, EJ and EP shorts as per below.
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  • #159
  • May 20, 2011 6:11pm May 20, 2011 6:11pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Just because EURX has a BEOB doesn't mean all Euro pairs will have BEOB's. It's more the location of the EURX BEOB ... it was a BEOB at a daily/weekly PPZ (see the weekly and 1HR chart below).

At the same time of course we have 4HR BEOB's on the Euro crosses..individually, I wouldn't have traded any of them, the location of the PA and the PA itself was average at best.

But collectively it's a different story (well it is for me) ... with EURX forming that BEOB off weekly/daily resistance this was a big sign and for all those pairs to also have...
Thanks very much Mark, really appreciate your time (especially on a Friday night ).
  • #160
  • May 21, 2011 9:04am May 21, 2011 9:04am
Hey LJ, which broker do you use for the eurx feed? Haven't been able to find a feed that seems close to usable. Ty
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