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VWVB Daily Chart Analysis

  • #181
  • Mar 10, 2006 10:11am Mar 10, 2006 10:11am
USD/CAD-I'm in short with a small position. If price retraces above the outer fib I will definately add to the position.
  • #182
  • Mar 10, 2006 11:32am Mar 10, 2006 11:32am
i entered a short position on the usd/cad too.

It seems to fit the 3 criteria Vegas listed. If I am wrong, could someone correct me.
1) It moves away from its daily open and made a new high breaking the 2nd fib level if you overlay model 1 and 3. Those models seem a good fit on the canadian recently as some people here have pointed out.
2) It moves away from its new high with speed and momentum.
3) It breaks the 50% retracement level of the range with momentum.
The range for the move up seems to be more than 60 pips too. And as Vegas has pointed out, whenever the market surpasses a 60 pip range, if it retraces more than 50% of the day range, it is of low probability that it will continue to hit another new high.
Is this correct?
  • #183
  • Mar 10, 2006 11:39am Mar 10, 2006 11:39am
Quoting MrMajik
The model numbers are not etched in stone. If you look back in time you will see Model 2 was the best model up until lately. If you change the model to 1 and look at the current price candles you will see model 1 actually calls the reversals better. This can change again someday down the road.
Thanks MrMajik ....
If it is not broken, fix it until it is!
  • #184
  • Mar 10, 2006 11:56am Mar 10, 2006 11:56am
Quoting jotty
i entered a short position on the usd/cad too.

It seems to fit the 3 criteria Vegas listed. If I am wrong, could someone correct me.
1) It moves away from its daily open and made a new high breaking the 2nd fib level if you overlay model 1 and 3. Those models seem a good fit on the canadian recently as some people here have pointed out.
2) It moves away from its new high with speed and momentum.
3) It breaks the 50% retracement level of the range with momentum.
The range for the move up seems to be more than 60 pips too. And as Vegas has pointed out, whenever the market surpasses a 60 pip range, if it retraces more than 50% of the day range, it is of low probability that it will continue to hit another new high.
Is this correct?
Jotty,
Your analysis looks good...I'm planning to go short once the current H1 TBL is broken at 1597. I have a sell stop at 1593. Let's see how this goes..

Shan
  • #185
  • Mar 10, 2006 12:42pm Mar 10, 2006 12:42pm
I am holding off all shorting until Monday. Price action looks good, but I don't feel comfortable entering before the weekend.
  • #186
  • Mar 10, 2006 1:04pm Mar 10, 2006 1:04pm
Been in awhile now, looking good so far. One entry is positive other just a little in the negative. Time will tell.
  • #187
  • Mar 10, 2006 1:08pm Mar 10, 2006 1:08pm
I am short too the loonie from 1.1604, from about 2 and a half hours back.
  • #188
  • Mar 10, 2006 2:31pm Mar 10, 2006 2:31pm
Nothing tells me that I should take position on usdCad. Is there something I don't see?
Attached Images
Try hard, think fast, die young
  • #189
  • Mar 10, 2006 2:37pm Mar 10, 2006 2:37pm
did you read VMB 2?
i could be wrong but thats how i interpreted it
from what i understand from that document
  • #190
  • Mar 10, 2006 2:46pm Mar 10, 2006 2:46pm
Quoting jotty
did you read VMB 2?
i could be wrong but thats how i interpreted it
from what i understand from that document
I think USD/CAD should be on the 233 fib line, and it seams to me it's at the 144 fib line, for daily chart.
Am i missing something?
Try hard, think fast, die young
  • #191
  • Mar 10, 2006 2:57pm Mar 10, 2006 2:57pm
Your observation is correct.

Model 1 has fib lines at 89, 144, and 233.
Model 2 has fib lines at 144, 233, and 377.

We found that right now model 1 is probably the best choice. This has fib 144 for the middle line. Model 2 as fib 288 for the middle fib.I am still using the middle fib line regardless of which model works with this pair.
  • #192
  • Mar 10, 2006 3:03pm Mar 10, 2006 3:03pm
Quoting MrMajik
Your observation is correct.

Model 1 has fib lines at 89, 144, and 233.
Model 2 has fib lines at 144, 233, and 377.

We found that right now model 1 is probably the best choice. This has fib 144 for the middle line. Model 2 as fib 288 for the middle fib.I am still using the middle fib line regardless of which model works with this pair.
288?
I'm using the indicator that has all the fib lines from 89 to 987. So you tested and 144 should be the significant for usdCad?
Or you tested that de middle line from the model has better signals? Did I meas some posts?
Try hard, think fast, die young
  • #193
  • Mar 10, 2006 3:18pm Mar 10, 2006 3:18pm
288 is a typo. 233 is the right fib value. Sorry about that :surprised
  • #194
  • Mar 11, 2006 8:16am Mar 11, 2006 8:16am
I feel this document will help alot of ppls in seeing reversal better.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf READING BARS.pdf   386 KB | 836 downloads
The future depends on what we do in the present.
  • #195
  • Mar 11, 2006 2:17pm Mar 11, 2006 2:17pm
Quoting compro99
I feel this document will help alot of ppls in seeing reversal better.
All the patterns are candlestick patterns: enguilfin, harami...
They are all about losing steam.
http://www.stockcharts.com/education...reversal1.html
I think more powerfull signals are continuation pattern, but nobody is talking about them.
Try hard, think fast, die young
  • #196
  • Mar 11, 2006 2:18pm Mar 11, 2006 2:18pm
Quoting dof
All the patterns are candlestick patterns: enguilfin, harami...
They are all about losing steam.
http://www.stockcharts.com/education...reversal1.html
I think more powerfull signals are continuation pattern, but nobody is talking about them.
Or if you want more candlestick patterns: http://www.hotcandlestick.com/candles.htm
Try hard, think fast, die young
  • #197
  • Mar 13, 2006 8:06am Mar 13, 2006 8:06am
Quoting dof
Nothing tells me that I should take position on usdCad. Is there something I don't see?
dof, You are correct. USD/CAD is not set for trading yet. The four hour tunnel has too big a gap on the sma's. That makes everything else not ready. I am jumping ship on this trade before I go down with the ship.

I thought I understood the four hour tunnel. I don't yet.

Here is a link to an excellent read on the four hour tunnel:

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ht=Lost+Tunnel
  • #198
  • Mar 13, 2006 10:46am Mar 13, 2006 10:46am
GBPUSD in long at 1.7272 .missed my entry by a bit but,price acction from the euro session was text book VWB 60 pip fall with a 2 hr correction throught the 50%.I am all ready at break even for a stop and took on 40 pip unit off the table.Anyone else??
  • #199
  • Mar 13, 2006 10:58am Mar 13, 2006 10:58am
03/13/2006 at 11.45 am est..
Attached Image
  • #200
  • Mar 13, 2006 11:02am Mar 13, 2006 11:02am
Quoting zenophyte
GBPUSD in long at 1.7272 .missed my entry by a bit but,price acction from the euro session was text book VWB 60 pip fall with a 2 hr correction throught the 50%.I am all ready at break even for a stop and took on 40 pip unit off the table.Anyone else??
I im in this too
1.7275 and took some profits off the table
the rest at BE
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