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  • #121
  • May 15, 2011 5:07pm May 15, 2011 5:07pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Sounds a very sensible plan to me.



I've attached charts of Gold, AU and UCAD with my thoughts below. I've not included a chart of Oil because the setup doesn't warrant one, you said all that needed to be said about it - it's not even a pin bar in my eyes and a close below the BRN of 100, based on the technical setup I'd never take a trade on a setup like that.
Thank you so much LJ for giving me the privilege of learning directly from you. It so encouraging, enriching and revealing to see the way you look at the market vs mine. I am really encouraged. Thank you once more and mat God reward you !!!
  • #122
  • May 16, 2011 10:17am May 16, 2011 10:17am
Quoting yaed
Youre thinking is a lot like SKFX, and i like it.

Here is kind of what im thinking

Red if supply/demand ish levels
Blue is S/R.

Vertical lines is just separators for the days.

Also H4 if you want a bigger picture:
Like Skfx?

I don know how but i'd like that.lol

The S/R i use are from Weekly and daily.
.
  • #123
  • May 16, 2011 10:24am May 16, 2011 10:24am
Quoting nasir.khan
Like Skfx?

I don know how but i'd like that.lol

The S/R i use are from Weekly and daily.
.
This dude

http://www.forexfactory.com/skfx
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #124
  • May 17, 2011 8:12am May 17, 2011 8:12am
This was the first trade of the week for me (Second trade was ECHF 1HR BEOB with a touch trade on the retrace to PPZ) - a straight forward high probability touch trade. Entry @ 1330, SL @ 1332 exit @ 1321 +4.5R (or 9% account growth for 2% risk)

I could of used the predictive power of this trade to take multiple trades across the majors but I don't need to trade aggresively anymore so I settled for the 4.5R this time
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  • #125
  • May 17, 2011 10:33am May 17, 2011 10:33am
Quoting lovejoy80
This was the first trade of the week for me (Second trade was ECHF 1HR BEOB with a touch trade on the retrace to PPZ) - a straight forward high probability touch trade. Entry @ 1330, SL @ 1332 exit @ 1321 +4.5R (or 9% account growth for 2% risk)

I could of used the predictive power of this trade to take multiple trades across the majors but I don't need to trade aggresively anymore so I settled for the 4.5R this time
To late on my part.
.
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  • #126
  • May 17, 2011 1:00pm May 17, 2011 1:00pm
Quoting lovejoy80
This was the first trade of the week for me (Second trade was ECHF 1HR BEOB with a touch trade on the retrace to PPZ) - a straight forward high probability touch trade. Entry @ 1330, SL @ 1332 exit @ 1321 +4.5R (or 9% account growth for 2% risk)

I could of used the predictive power of this trade to take multiple trades across the majors but I don't need to trade aggresively anymore so I settled for the 4.5R this time
No surprise to see the low hold on EP considering the location of YM...it's a near certainty that price will bounce away from an area like that after hitting it for the first time.

Of course, the effect of the bounce on FX can be seen clearly on the charts.
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  • #127
  • May 18, 2011 8:57am May 18, 2011 8:57am
PA showin the way right before News.
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  • #128
  • May 18, 2011 9:07am May 18, 2011 9:07am
Quoting nasir.khan
PA showin the way right before News.
.
Closed and reversed and took EU too.

What are the chances for a Pinnish bar right below a PPZ?

We'll see.
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  • #129
  • May 18, 2011 9:24am May 18, 2011 9:24am
Two more bets and i am done for today.
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  • #130
  • May 18, 2011 11:03am May 18, 2011 11:03am
Quoting nasir.khan
Closed and reversed and took EU too.

What are the chances for a Pinnish bar right below a PPZ?

We'll see.
.
Concerning the G/U long, was you anticipating profit taking at some point after a days selling, and waiting for the first bullish sign? Or perhaps YM at 50% fib along with your E/U long? Because for me G/U just broke some significant support at the time and I can't see any ppz at 1.6110 where it bounced.
  • #131
  • May 18, 2011 11:07am May 18, 2011 11:07am
Quoting nasir.khan
Two more bets and i am done for today.
.
I was watching U/CHF. Would you attribute the bearishness on this pair mainly down to the 50/61 retrace? Because I'm seeing commodities up and riskier currencies up at the time, but strong CHF? Wouldn't CHF usually be weak in this environment?
  • #132
  • May 18, 2011 11:30am May 18, 2011 11:30am
Quoting pmn100
Concerning the G/U long, was you anticipating profit taking at some point after a days selling, and waiting for the first bullish sign? Or perhaps YM at 50% fib along with your E/U long? Because for me G/U just broke some significant support at the time and I can't see any ppz at 1.6110 where it bounced.
The way I would have looked at it would be that this area was support (its most clear on the 4HR TF - zoom out) and look at the setups that occured on AU, EU, UC, UCHF, USDX at the same time...this would be the reason I would use to determine that on hitting this PPZ GU had a much higher chance of bouncing than falling through.
  • #133
  • May 18, 2011 11:52am May 18, 2011 11:52am
Quoting pmn100
I was watching U/CHF. Would you attribute the bearishness on this pair mainly down to the 50/61 retrace? Because I'm seeing commodities up and riskier currencies up at the time, but strong CHF? Wouldn't CHF usually be weak in this environment?
Generally that would be the correlation CHF increases on risk aversion and decreases on risk appetite...but correlations go through periods of working well and not so well.

If you look at what happened when YM hit it's montly support yesterday on FX you can see USD and JPY pairs have bounced well but CHF pairs haven't really done much (GBP aside cos thats been a complete dog of a currency last few days!), AU, EU, UC and AJ, EJ, CJ have all bounced off their lows / highs since risk appetite has increased but ECHF has not moved much so that says to me USD and JPY pairs are the ones to watch if expecting risk appetite to increase.

Personally I always prefer CHF in times of risk aversion only and JPY and USD in times of risk appetite.

Lastly, UCHF does have an inverse correlation with EU...

P.S. I would try and keep it more simple than constantly looking at cross-market correlations...in this instance EU,UC,AU had touch trade setups (be it more minor swings - setups I term intraday ones) along with USDX and UCHF there is enough confluence there amongst the FX pairs which are all correlated to take those trades.
  • #134
  • May 18, 2011 12:40pm May 18, 2011 12:40pm
First off i'd agree to LJ to keep it simple. Every 30 pip move does not mean that u should start scratching your head about Intermarkets and Risk environments. There are a lot of other things too that move the market. You cant just figure out every one of them cause u dont have the time and resources for that.

It's true that those trades were not exclusively based on pure technicals. First as LJ mentioned USD's were hitting some area's all over the board.

Next

In the past weeks i have been noticing that cable moves on news announcements and than reverses soon after.

11-May, BOE increased their inflation projection from 1.6% to 1.9%. Cable went up to 500 from 360 and immediately reversed upon hitting some good confluence of BRN Fibs and PPZ. (i think i was in that one)

12-May, Industrial production come out at 0.3% vs expected fig of 0.8% (plus some risk off flows). Cable falls down from 375 to 240 and reverses upon hitting resistance.

17 May, CPI come out better than expected, Cable jumps from 200 too 260 before the announcement and than moves higher to 300 after the announcement. But again reverses again after hitting some resistance at 300.

Now look at what happened today. It gave us a Beob before the announcement of Employment data, Fig comes out worst that expected and it shoots down ...........

ok come oooon now do i have to tell u again what happpend next. lol.........oh btw LJ is right there was also a PPZ down there sorry for not highlighting it.

Now put this all together with setups occurring at the same time on various pairs like AU, Uchf, EU etc and u get the story behind it all.

These are pattern market develops for some times and conditions in certain economic scenarios, all u have to do is to notice them before they are gone. But it takes some experience,hard work and to have faith in your analysis.
.
  • #135
  • May 18, 2011 1:22pm May 18, 2011 1:22pm
Thanks LJ

I'm definitely getting myself into a tiz with the correlations, along with the DOW movements, and then factoring in sentiment and news releases. As an example, what I find I'm doing is looking at the DOW and seeing an up day, and then thinking 'risk on' and expecting long opportunities to appear in EUR/GBP/AUD etc, when they're already of course on the up. But that's reacting to whats happening now rather than pre-empting possible moves in the other direction. What should have happened is I should have been long at the start of the climb, which no doubt started when the DOW was on a down day. If my time trying to correlate fundamentals and current sentiment into forming entries has taught me anything, its that techincals seem to win out most often, regardless of what current sentiment or fundamentals would have you think should happen.

So I think I'm doing an about turn and walking away from trying to gauge sentiment and understanding fundamentals, and just go with the PA and techincals again. I'm just going to pay attention to news releases, and make sure orders are not too close at the time.

Concerning G/U, I'm squinting real hard and just don't see that PPZ. I've got one at 1.6150-70. Maybe its just my feed.

Anyhow, thanks.
  • #136
  • May 18, 2011 1:38pm May 18, 2011 1:38pm
Thanks for the explaination Nasir

Concerning the news releases, although I haven't monitored that sort of behaviour specifically, I do see how news, if relating to a specific currency, can sometimes give great opportunities for entries as they can often push a currency out of whack with other similar pairs, and you can trade them back to where they 'should be' if that makes sense.

As an example, I saw G/J rising before the GBP CPI data release. As the data released, it done one more push and went through a resistance point (133.00), then the next H1 candle closed back down through it. It made a little retrace to 133.00 then came all the way back down again. i.e. The news on GBP was good (as in CPI data was high, good for a rate rise, thus bullish GBP), but overall sentiment in the markets at the time was still to the short side for riskier currencies, hence the shorting off resistance.

Am I seeing that right, or am I just typing amateur bull?
  • #137
  • May 18, 2011 1:58pm May 18, 2011 1:58pm
Quoting pmn100
Thanks for the explaination Nasir

Concerning the news releases, although I haven't monitored that sort of behaviour specifically, I do see how news, if relating to a specific currency, can sometimes give great opportunities for entries as they can often push a currency out of whack with other similar pairs, and you can trade them back to where they 'should be' if that makes sense.

As an example, I saw G/J rising before the GBP CPI data release. As the data released, it done one more push and went through a resistance point (133.00), then...
you nailed it bro. This is what's it all about. u have a sentiment than price deviates away from that sentiment and u pull the trigger.

After reading ur above post idont think you shuold take an about turn.

can see that ur struggling but everyone have to go through that stage. But if u really think it will do u good than be all means u should concentrate on techs more.
.
  • #138
  • May 19, 2011 2:18am May 19, 2011 2:18am
Added more,.. moved stops. Took this 2h PB.

I feel something about to happen in Yen's. Specially commodities one's like NJ and AJ.
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  • #139
  • May 19, 2011 4:52am May 19, 2011 4:52am
Quoting pmn100
Thanks LJ

I'm definitely getting myself into a tiz with the correlations, along with the DOW movements, and then factoring in sentiment and news releases. As an example, what I find I'm doing is looking at the DOW and seeing an up day, and then thinking 'risk on' and expecting long opportunities to appear in EUR/GBP/AUD etc, when they're already of course on the up. But that's reacting to whats happening now rather than pre-empting possible moves in the other direction. What should have happened is I should have been long at the start of the climb,...
The way I use correlations most of the time is through technicals, so I'm not looking at YM/EP etc and seeing its going up...I'm looking for confluenced areas that might cause a reaction or reversal. So for example when YM hit it's monthly support, whcih was also a 1st time back with 61% fib confluence...that was a very high probability touch trade setup in itse;f, but what it also told me was that I'd expect risk sentiment to increase and thus I'd be looking at xxx/usd and xxx/jpy pairs for any opportunities to go long. Now, if correlations are working well you could feaibly take aggressive trades on the FX pairs, I prefer to wait for when the FX pairs are lined up with the likes of YM/EP (when using this as a correlation) so it's all just additional confluence. Thus if EU is at daily support and I see YM hit the area it did then for me there is a high probability of expecting a bounce in EU.

That's pretty much how I use YM/EP as measure of risk sentiment and as confluence for FX trades. But it's not something I use everyday too, more of my trades are based on pure touch trades on great FX setups or based around PA.
  • #140
  • May 19, 2011 4:55am May 19, 2011 4:55am
Quoting pmn100
Thanks for the explaination Nasir

Concerning the news releases, although I haven't monitored that sort of behaviour specifically, I do see how news, if relating to a specific currency, can sometimes give great opportunities for entries as they can often push a currency out of whack with other similar pairs, and you can trade them back to where they 'should be' if that makes sense.

As an example, I saw G/J rising before the GBP CPI data release. As the data released, it done one more push and went through a resistance point (133.00), then the...
Perfect ...I covered this very subject last week in the forum and you nailed it
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