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Trading Made Simple

  • #2,601
  • May 15, 2011 5:07am May 15, 2011 5:07am
Its hard to tell from your charts, I think they would have been a mixture of small wins, break evens and maybe a small loss. You get periods of the market like this when there's indecision and some profit taking. The point is that we're probably through that niggly period with some pips in the bank (or not too much damage done) ready for when the market truly has a great move later on in the day.

As BigE says you can't hit a home run every trade... its impossible.
  • #2,602
  • May 15, 2011 5:40am May 15, 2011 5:40am
Hi,

Thanks everyone for making this great topic, love the trading style! The only problem i'm currently encounter is that the tdi gives you other values when you load it into a new chart then letting it run onto a live chart. So for example, i let it run for a day on gbpusd, but when i refresh the template or indicator, it gives me other values (the green line behaves differently).

Looking into the code i suspected it was the RSI, but shifting that didn't helped. Even more weird is that some charts posted here seems to be exactly as mine when i look back (so i assume this would be 'false lookback'), while others seem to have correct tdi charts.

to clearify my point two attachments: one is a visual mt4 backtest where i loaded the teamplate into the visual backtest screen while letting it run, compared with how the chart is "showing now". As you can see, the visual backtest - so how you would have seen it trading live, differs from how you look back.

Image 2 is quite similar, i compared my chart to the one someone posted on the forum here (one of the very first posts in this thread, on a h4 USDCHF). Charts looks different again, but letting the template run on a visual backtest also gave other results.

Using all the standard indicators, settings and templates posted in post 25 btw.

My point here is: it's useless to look back into history as the tdi behaves very different on past charts then on live ones. I've let it run on a vps for like 2 days, and those results look far worse (you would have made losses) then loading it onto new charts and visual lookback it (where you would have been making profits.)

@AlienFrog: i guess this explains your redicule high profits. I've also visual backtested EUR/USD for 1 week on different tf's: you would have made 2700 pips, but again, you wouldn't have seen the tdi do that live.

Anybody found a solution to this?

Cheers,
Simon

P.S. Sorry for the long post, but as i thought it's an important topic i wanted to make it very clear
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: tdi_false_2.png Size: 122 KB
  • #2,603
  • May 15, 2011 6:30am May 15, 2011 6:30am
Your totaly right , you can not outsmart the market and win every trade , my point was to get rid of obvious mistakes i make.
Thanks for your help
  • #2,604
  • May 15, 2011 7:29am May 15, 2011 7:29am
Excellent work there, AF...
I think one can put confidence in test results that are as diligently pursued as you have here...
Taking the time to analyze PA as it goes into a range is very helpful...
Thanks for putting in the time and posting the results for everyones benefit...
Good Trades...
Cliff

Quoting AlienFrog
Here are some more *extremely unofficial* trading results from another back test run. Hope you like them.

Pair: EURUSD
TF: H4 (EST)
Time period: Feb-March 2011
Total trades: 36
Winners: 34
Losers: 2
Net pips: +2264

Again, I scrolled through the chart manually one bar at a time using F12 key. I followed the same basic rules as before (see below).

Stochs - this time I hardly paid attention to Stochs, but when I did remember to check they were always pointing in the right direction.

I've added a time column to show which H4 candle the trade...
I get exercise just pushing my luck
  • #2,605
  • May 15, 2011 7:32am May 15, 2011 7:32am
Quoting 2scoops
see above
Thanks Scoops! helps me see what you mean
  • #2,606
  • May 15, 2011 7:58am May 15, 2011 7:58am
Esquire...
You bring up good points to consider...
Dean Malone has even covered this topic live in his trade room as well as produced a couple of videos on his site at CompassFX on the subject...
What I've taken from his explanation and what I see in your chart examples is a small variation of the same signal...
In other words, if the signal being considered was pointing down, it did not reverse and now point up after refreshing the chart, etc.
Also, as the HA APB's do not change this helps when looking back and testing yourself on entry and exit decisions...
All and all, back testing of any sort is not going to be an exact science. The results are going to differ from live trading every time. The value here is the practice accrued at making trade decisions based on PA and TDI observed at the time during practice. Not that one would have made money/pips in hindsight...
Appreciate your input...very good question...
Good Trades...
Cliff

Quoting esquire
Hi,

Thanks everyone for making this great topic, love the trading style! The only problem I'm currently encounter is that the tdi gives you other values when you load it into a new chart then letting it run onto a live chart. So for example, i let it run for a day on gbpusd, but when i refresh the template or indicator, it gives me other values (the green line behaves differently).

Looking into the code i suspected it was the RSI, but shifting that didn't helped. Even more weird is that some charts posted here seems to be exactly as mine when...
I get exercise just pushing my luck
  • #2,607
  • May 15, 2011 8:17am May 15, 2011 8:17am
Quoting 2scoops
Yep I know its not perfect, I don't use it for formal backtesting for those reasons ... It just burns the characteristics of a good setup candle into your head ...

And yes there's no replacement for the real thing, live trading the method. But at the weekend, trading sims and other manual methods are the best we've got.
You are absolutely right scoops. The key thing is to be sure we understand the limitations of the tools as fully as possible. A lot of this is obvious once you start using the tools, but I thinks it's also good to have this discussion for all to see.
Luck occurs when preparation meets with opportunity.
  • #2,608
  • May 15, 2011 8:33am May 15, 2011 8:33am
Quoting nhen
Great results mate! But yes as you and others have pointed out, backtesting and simulators have major draw backs.
Perhaps the only way to truly test a system is to trade it live every week for 3-6+ months? - Using VERY small lots (cents)

What is apparent to me so far is that psychology is the MOST important aspect to master in order to be successful. A trader with no grasp on trading psychology could fail month after month with the world's greatest system. And conversely a trader that has mastered his mind at the charts could turn the worst system...
AMEN TO THAT! My biggest psych problem is trying to shoehorn current PA into the setup rules, afraid I'll miss an opportunity. It makes me bend the rules and enter bad trades. Instead I should be patiently "waiting" on a setup, because it will be obvious when it comes.

I use a $100 account and risk $2-3 each trade. It's real money, and I hate it when I lose, and I love it when I win. I agree with you, definitely better psych training than demo with funny money.
Luck occurs when preparation meets with opportunity.
  • #2,609
  • May 15, 2011 9:01am May 15, 2011 9:01am
Quoting nhen
Great results mate! But yes as you and others have pointed out, backtesting and simulators have major draw backs.
Perhaps the only way to truly test a system is to trade it live every week for 3-6+ months? - Using VERY small lots (cents)

What is apparent to me so far is that psychology is the MOST important aspect to master in order to be successful. A trader with no grasp on trading psychology could fail month after month with the world's greatest system. And conversely a trader that has mastered his mind at the charts could turn the worst system...
Agree with you......I would add backtesting justs demonstrates that a strategy is reliable and works BUT there is no trader involved.

Put him or her into the mix in real time and you will get a feel for whether YOU can do it. Just because a strategy works does not mean you will be suited to it yourself.

Time and again across FF it does seem to be assumed that the trader will succeed if others have before him/her......this is untrue.

Can YOU do it. Does it suit YOU.
Can you pull the trigger when you should. Can you get out when you should. Can you sit on your hands when you should. Can YOU follow the rules. What's your trading plan.

Successful trading boils down to YOU. Just YOU and how YOU cope with it.

If the strategy works and you behave as you should then YOU will succeed. Takes plenty of practice, discipline,patience,self belief and when all is said and done even when you have been at it for years you will still run into a losing trade. You cannot let a losing trade affect you. Shit happens but getting angry, upset or down beat wil just have you making more mistakes.

Trading is simple and easy.......humans just have a knack of making it complicated.

makingpips
  • #2,610
  • May 15, 2011 9:13am May 15, 2011 9:13am
Quoting blutkehlchen
Thanks for your answer , but i cant see how you could made made money out of the next trade , thats no critic i just want to make sure i understand it all correct

So it would be nice if someone comment on this
Hi, Blutkehlchen. As I look it over again, I see that the signal on that original trade came one bar earlier than where you have it marked. I said I would have taken it but I told you the wrong entry bar in my last post, sorry for that error. I would have entered on the previous bar. Here is how I would have taken that signal.

Bar: 2010.11.12 4:00AM - TDI cross for Buy signal, so enter long at open: 1.36506
(Enter immediately on open of the signal candle, don't wait for the second candle)
Bar: 2010.11.12 8:00AM - TDI goes up, so stay in trade
Bar: 2010.11.12 12:00noon - TDI turns down for exit signal, exit at open: 1.36983 for +47 pips

Next trade:

Bar: 2010.11.15 00:00 midnight - TDI cross for Sell signal, enter short at open: 1.36843
TDI goes down for next few bars, stay in trade
Bar: 2010.11.15 16:00 - TDI cross for exit signal, exit at open of signal bar: 1.35679 for +116 pips

I think there are two major differences. One, your TDI looks different than mine due to the time zone, so your open prices will differ from mine, so it's hard to make a good comparison. But more importantly, I think you are entering on the second candle after the TDI signal. You wrote on your chart "enter on open of next candle." When TDI give a signal, you should enter immediately on the open of the signal candle according to the rules.

I hope this helps you!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart.jpg Size: 199 KB
Luck occurs when preparation meets with opportunity.
  • #2,611
  • May 15, 2011 9:15am May 15, 2011 9:15am
Quoting makingpips
Agree with you......I would add backtesting justs demonstrates that a strategy is reliable and works BUT there is no trader involved.

Put him or her into the mix in real time and you will get a feel for whether YOU can do it. Just because a strategy works does not mean you will be suited to it yourself.

Time and again across FF it does seem to be assumed that the trader will succeed if others have before him/her......this is untrue.

Can YOU do it. Does it suit YOU.
Can you pull the trigger when you should. Can you get out when you should....
You nailed it perfectly! I think I'm going to frame this post and hang it on my wall.
Luck occurs when preparation meets with opportunity.
  • #2,612
  • May 15, 2011 9:25am May 15, 2011 9:25am
Quoting makingpips
Agree with you......I would add backtesting justs demonstrates that a strategy is reliable and works BUT there is no trader involved.

Put him or her into the mix in real time and you will get a feel for whether YOU can do it. Just because a strategy works does not mean you will be suited to it yourself.

Time and again across FF it does seem to be assumed that the trader will succeed if others have before him/her......this is untrue.

Can YOU do it. Does it suit YOU.
Can you pull the trigger when you should. Can you get out when you should....
I concur! Very well stated and more true than most of us want to admit.
  • #2,613
  • May 15, 2011 9:44am May 15, 2011 9:44am
Now, months to come within this year, i want to be aggressive with this system. Don't ask me how to or advice me not to, ( I am experienced enough to know my left from right in taking decisions) but i will try to post my live results later. When you see a good trading system, no need to demo trade for long, just dance with the best set ups starting from micro lots according to the plan and time frame that suite you most. STOP CHASING EVERY PIPS!
The basic rule of my subsequent tradings will be
1. Trade mainly on weekly and daily chats because it fits my timing, I am a little busy during my day. I am more emotional on lower time frame because it will give me no room to breath well.
2. I have taken note of about 10 pairs that are trending well on weekly chats. You too see them on your chats. They will be my focus.
3. Stop loss will be at my trading decisions according to my psychological approaches to each trading especially if far from swing.
4. Target profit will be initial 150 pips........ average momentum of each HA pair that gives good signal is close to 150 pips on many pairs(Aggression,UH?). If not taken within 2-3 days, likely close manually but depend on the market strenght
5. Bounce trade is an excellent way to re-enter according to our boss. I have tried it several times, and it really worked nice.
6. I will trade around 8 best set ups within each month.( 2 times per week is reasonable for me if i can spot it, if not i will be patient. Market will be there for ever
IF I NEED TO CHANGE ANY ABOVE PLAN, I WILL DECIDE LATER
In summary I am calculating to make average of 600 pips/month if things work well on 8 trades.
To our new friends,This is a good system, no doubt about it, draw your trading plan without doubt. Follow it strictly. Even if you make mistake, the market has a way of putting you back in right order when followed your plan well. I don't need to be looking at lower time frame again if it is not in my trading plan, or else i will make mistake of entering market and i will regret later.
THAT IS MY PLAN FOR THE MONTHS AHEAD. ANY TRADER CAN SHARE THEIR OWN TOO.
We Win Some, We Loose Some, But Let your Win Rates be More to be Successful
  • #2,614
  • May 15, 2011 10:41am May 15, 2011 10:41am
ready to gain pips again with this lovely methode in new weeks come ...
  • #2,615
  • May 15, 2011 12:30pm May 15, 2011 12:30pm
This is for all new comers and not so new.
There is a great deal of information on technique in this FF regarding how to operate and use MT4 platform.
Just click Forum>Platform Tech>MT4 Navigation Tips and Technique>2nd Post. Please go through it because it provides all the answers that people were keep asking here!
Adong
  • #2,616
  • May 15, 2011 2:12pm May 15, 2011 2:12pm
Quoting adeforex
[size=3][font=Comic Sans MS]Now, months to come within this year, i want to be aggressive with this system. Don't ask me how to or advice me not to, ( I am experienced enough to know my left from right in taking decisions) but i will try to post my live results later. When you see a good trading system, no need to demo trade for long, just dance with the best set ups starting from micro lots according to the plan and time frame that suite you most. STOP CHASING EVERY PIPS!
The basic rule of my subsequent tradings will be
1. Trade mainly on...
That's the way to do it - make a plan! This is a business and it needs goals, and a step by step plan how to reach those goals. Go for it, Adeforex! I'll be watching for your posts.
Luck occurs when preparation meets with opportunity.
  • #2,617
  • May 15, 2011 2:48pm May 15, 2011 2:48pm
Alright all you party animals trying to recover from last night... or longer...

Last couple of pages has covered many different topics... well, touched base anyway....

2scoops... on post 2594...

2scoops asked me a long time ago what would be the most beneficial to learning this method for higher success... The answer was simple... study old charts for set ups... now strip down everything on that chart at that point... trends, angles, S/R levels, News times, Stoch angle within the 20-80 lines..etc. Burn it into your memory... I spent 2 years doing that.... so what does that mean?

It takes me 15 seconds to strip a chart down to nothing including the TDI & Stoch's. Taking clean trades is a breeze for me... why?

Read above...

I can take you to water but I can't make you drink... follow the simple entry & exit rules. Forget other indicators. I went down those roads so you wouldn't have too...

There is a handful who trade it correctly here who are rewarded nicely...

  • #2,618
  • May 15, 2011 3:08pm May 15, 2011 3:08pm
have any of you guys (eelfranz specially since it's his baby) ever thought of opening a trading room on say skype or similar such vehicle.
  • #2,619
  • May 15, 2011 3:34pm May 15, 2011 3:34pm
I just subscribed to this thread and am VERY excited about trading this new method. Thank you eelfranz and all others who give so freely of their time and energy. Good things come to those who help others along this tough road we call life. Keep up the GREAT work and once again, THANK YOU!!! :0)
  • #2,620
  • May 15, 2011 5:26pm May 15, 2011 5:26pm
Hear ya go...it's called, The5Method...
just Skype it and ask to be added...
Very lively discussion and trade calls during busy market times...
Good Trades...
Cliff

Quoting handy148
have any of you guys (eelfranz specially since it's his baby) ever thought of opening a trading room on say skype or similar such vehicle.
I get exercise just pushing my luck
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