Timing and Reading the Markets

Do the markets talk to us ?
Can we understand them ?
How they whispering ?
Did they unfold in a certain way ?
Belong is the ling with a picture of EUR/USD have a look at it
If you can read it correct then you know where it will end its move!
http://imtp.me/1kae01euz.p

regards sakis
[email protected]

Yeah, I think technical analysis is good for timing but horrible for direction. What drives the markets is not some lines you draw on the charts. If the EU would indicate that it will break up, then guess what, all your lines are meaningless. Cause the market will just drop through them.

Technical analysis is good for timing but for direction I think fundamental analysis is the way to go and when major shifts happen it will override any technical analysis you did on your charts.

Well you are and you are not right
The fact is that fundamentals’ do the spikes and motion do the moves
An old saying I hear once from a trader I use to know
I think he was right!
Let the weather and focus on prices say once to his turtles the Father
of trend following “Richard Denis “
Who knows probably was wrong

hm, yeah, it's a philosophical debate I think. I personally am just more focused on fundies when determining direction.

There is a bit of that...

Not sure if this will help you.. but as far as reading the tea leaves, the best form of tea you can drink is the shorter term time charts..

The technical patterns, candlestick patterns and momentum of the ticks even can give a good reading on whether that great technical retracement will get there or no.

At least, it can provide another strong field of indicators to help you decide on your entry for that trade. If there's no heart in that direction on the quicker chart's i'd hold off until there is.

The market indene to repeat its self ( don’t forget humans are be hide it )
It makes its behavior repeatedly the same .
Patterns are doing the same and same think so by examine the past you can more or less
predict the future of course (by guessing ) and with lack of timing
Once they asked general Patoon how he predict the German moves under the second world war
And he answer “Napoleon did the same mistake 2 centuries ago”
Lets for example look at the traders worst night mare the Consolidations where traders
loose the most of they money.
There is way to avoid that by simple counting significant moves Up and down, there it will be at least 7 touches before a break out by knowing to count them you can avoid significant amount of whipsaws
So Practically you don’t need no indicators other than Moving averages because simply most of them will shine after the party is over, they only you need is just to study the past
Don’t Forget “ First the moves and then the proves”
So just look for the moves first!!

price prediction is a bit of a philosophical discussion and much debate has been done on it.

EMH for example there are 3 kinds weak, semi-strong and strong
and in a nutshell they say that although participants are not efficient or rational as whole everything is already priced in the markets.

so the past iherently cannot predict the future, because price moves along with the present and just because price WAS at a level before is completely independent of price NOW and price in the FUTURE.

in fact no prediction can be made.
its a sound theory and it has been proven. however as we know HUMANS are intrinsically not efficient and mistakes are infact repeated.

using Napoleon for example he decided to invade Russia, and failed
Hittler did the same and failed

so prices in Behavioral Finance are ruled by human psychological inefficiencies

then we have the forces that rule the market supply demand liquidity.

i for one still studying all these things and in my findings so far i have found

that Custos is right. overall fundamental factors affect direction
interest rate, budget and trade deficits, employement, GDP and the sort as money is moved around by all the different industries of a country.

the markest are ruled by the USD whatever affects the dollar affects the market

even if canada has good employement, good gdp, if The USD strengthens the CAD will fall

AS i keep telling all the newbies there is 3 types of markets bull bear ranging
identify and youre bound to make money. if nothing else go in the overall direction

for every wave there is a counter wave
be aware of the range
be aware of the momentum, speed, and deceleration

patterns tend to repeat, but price levels are important

“When the market follow a direction and every one it seems to know why! don’t follow it”
Saying of the floor
Fundamentals not other than Interest rates the only can do is just volatility how many times
we did see spikes after announcements and then the market return to finish its job.
Except from my personal experience it is also well descript by Neal Weintraub (an experience floor
Trader) in his book “Tricks Of The Floor Trader” back in 90’s close your position 10 min before the announcement let the spike finish and reenter in the direction of the previous trend

If public sentiment which clearly depend on fundamental diverge with present trend
1 think that is one of the best indicators to enter the market in the direction of the trend

Personally I am a trend follower and I follow the trace’s of the market
I prefer to let the big guys with the huge knowledge of fundamentals to push the market
and I trained my self to read the traces they left behind like the Indians did in the American West