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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #24,161
  • May 10, 2011 6:00pm May 10, 2011 6:00pm
Quoting USD-Bear
My guess for what's worth, retrace or 82.7

ps notice it's moving up while U is dropping........
Once USDX breaks this consolidation, perhaps things will be a bit clearer for this pair.
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Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,162
  • May 10, 2011 6:09pm May 10, 2011 6:09pm
Quoting realjumper
Once USDX breaks this consolidation, perhaps things will be a bit clearer for this pair.
don't know realjumper, not following UJ as long as you do, but I do feel some independancy of UJ versus USDX eg the J-part gets more influence lately.
Maybe joined interventions play a invisible influance on PA
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #24,163
  • May 10, 2011 6:38pm May 10, 2011 6:38pm
Quoting USD-Bear
don't know realjumper, not following UJ as long as you do, but I do feel some independancy of UJ versus USDX eg the J-part gets more influence lately.
Maybe joined interventions play a invisible influance on PA
In some ways this pair in quite interesting Bear. A year or two back, this pair could almost be used as a hedging pair against eur/usd......it was quite reliable. Now the world is a different place and currencis have changed accordingly. I think that if the PIIGs mess wasn't in place, and it was just a matter of USD weakness, then this would be a simple cas of watching the USDX. At the moment though, the 'safe haven' rubbish is interfering with things. People are jittery about investing in USD at the moment, and the same is true for the Euro. Gold is (apparently) nearing it's peak, and so the only 'safe havens' left seem to be the Yen and the Swissy.......however misguided that may be.

Having said that, the mess that Japan is in has been well and truely thrashed out on these pages, so that is well known. The state of the USA economy is also well known. What is less clear though is where we are going with the PIIGs......and what ramifications that will have. I have always thought that Greece would default, and (imo) it should have been left to default quite some time ago. Anyway, what I think may occur, and this is just me thinking so it's probably worth not much......is that come the end of June, we will have our answer one way or the other.

If QE2 ends, that (more or less) is saying that the USA economy has turned the corner. That will help USD get stronger at the expense of the Yen and the Euro. Not sure about the Swissy. If QE3 materializes, then we will see the dollar tank well and truely, the Yen and the Swissy skyrocket (to the detriment of both countries economies), and the Euro probably head off into the 1.60's......which will cripple the indebted and bailed out countries.

In short, QE3 will e a disaster for everyone except USA.....but USA will suffer in the longer term.

So, assuming that QE2 fades away, then slowly but surely I imagine that the balance between USD and Yen will return.......what could spoil that from the Japan side of the equation though, is the earthquake repair bill.

As I say, all this is just me thinking, and it could be way wrong!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,164
  • May 10, 2011 7:05pm May 10, 2011 7:05pm
Quoting realjumper
In some ways this pair in quite interesting Bear. A year or two back, this pair could almost be used as a hedging pair against eur/usd......it was quite reliable. Now the world is a different place and currencis have changed accordingly. I think that if the PIIGs mess wasn't in place, and it was just a matter of USD weakness, then this would be a simple cas of watching the USDX. At the moment though, the 'safe haven' rubbish is interfering with things. People are jittery about investing in USD at the moment, and the same is true for the Euro. Gold...
Politically it would be difficult for US to push out QE3, I think the other countries might even take coordinated action against US if QE3 does happen. They can't just let US keep printing US dollar forever isn't it? The world might choose to price many asset with alternatives like gold instead of US dollar.
  • #24,165
  • May 10, 2011 7:16pm May 10, 2011 7:16pm
Quoting Darkforce
Politically it would be difficult for US to push out QE3, I think the other countries might even take coordinated action against US if QE3 does happen. They can't just let US keep printing US dollar forever isn't it? The world might choose to price many asset with alternatives like gold instead of US dollar.
I agree. Not only would it be difficult, but it would be irresponsible. I think that the Fed has backed itself into a corner here. If they believe the need QE3, but acknowledge that they can't do it, the only think left is to end QE2 but use very grim language in doing so.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,166
  • Edited 9:41pm May 10, 2011 9:30pm | Edited 9:41pm
please comment.

Strong USD bearish trend , trend line remains intact
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1305080523



testing 80.94 resistance

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1305080627

looking to buy near the 21ema bounce for a shortterm position which is also near the fibo 50.0 line
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1305080627


MACD divergence spotted, waiting to but on the pull back.
http://i1187.photobucket.com/albums/...f?t=1305081659
  • #24,167
  • May 10, 2011 10:42pm May 10, 2011 10:42pm
Quoting tankokjian
please comment.

Strong USD bearish trend , trend line remains intact


testing 80.94 resistance

MACD divergence spotted, waiting to but on the pull back.

Sounds good to me, I'm looking to see this bearish trend broken soon, I really don't see why the Yen is still a currency, sometime within this year the realization they have 6 Chernobyls in their midst should wake people up. But until that time I see 80 USD/JPY as the line in the sand, buy above, sell below. I'm hoping to see 90's by mid summer.
Sounds good on the bounce, if it goes below 80.6 I'll second guess myself.
  • #24,168
  • May 11, 2011 2:59am May 11, 2011 2:59am
any thoughts on this pair ?
  • #24,169
  • May 11, 2011 3:18am May 11, 2011 3:18am
maybe target 80.400 :/
  • #24,170
  • May 11, 2011 4:16am May 11, 2011 4:16am
Quoting tankokjian
any thoughts on this pair ?
50% retracement done, just above weekly pivot again, would suggest 80.60 as critical level

M15:
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #24,171
  • May 11, 2011 4:32am May 11, 2011 4:32am
Quoting realjumper
In some ways this pair in quite interesting Bear. A year or two back, this pair could almost be used as a hedging pair against eur/usd......it was quite reliable. Now the world is a different place and currencis have changed accordingly. I think that if the PIIGs mess wasn't in place, and it was just a matter of USD weakness, then this would be a simple cas of watching the USDX. At the moment though, the 'safe haven' rubbish is interfering with things. People are jittery about investing in USD at the moment, and the same is true for the Euro. Gold...
Beautifull analyses realjumper thanks.
Agree but think the PIIGs issue is well discounted in the market and it's effects will finally fade away. Helicopter Bernanke is indeed the real issue.
Feel fundamentals (although educated that way) are good for background views but atm I'll let PA descide what to do.
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #24,172
  • May 11, 2011 4:44am May 11, 2011 4:44am
Quoting USD-Bear
Beautifull analyses realjumper thanks.
Agree but think the PIIGs issue is well discounted in the market and it's effects will finally fade away. Helicopter Bernanke is indeed the real issue.
Feel fundamentals (although educated that way) are good for background views but atm I'll let PA descide what to do.
Thanks Bear. As I said, it's just me thinking out loud so it may not be worth much.....and I certainly don't trade such thoughts!!! The charts rule!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,173
  • May 11, 2011 5:06am May 11, 2011 5:06am
Love those pivots, this certainly was a fierce rejection......
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #24,174
  • May 11, 2011 5:09am May 11, 2011 5:09am
Quoting USD-Bear
Love those pivots, this certainly was a fierce rejection......
Yep.....I saw on another thread a few days back, that someone was saying that pivots were complete rubbish.....lol......from the mouth of babies I was thinking!!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,175
  • May 11, 2011 7:20am May 11, 2011 7:20am
u mean daily pivot or weekly?

Quoting realjumper
Yep.....I saw on another thread a few days back, that someone was saying that pivots were complete rubbish.....lol......from the mouth of babies I was thinking!!!
  • #24,176
  • May 11, 2011 7:35am May 11, 2011 7:35am
Looks good, levels to watch imo
North 81.70 - 82.7 - 85
South 80.60

H4:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #24,177
  • May 11, 2011 7:55am May 11, 2011 7:55am
Quote
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability. Don’t ever feel that you are very good. The second you do, you are dead. (PTJ)

your quote rocks. my ego cause me to lose some trades today.


Quoting USD-Bear
Looks good, levels to watch imo
North 81.70 - 82.7 - 85
South 80.60

H4:
Attachment
  • #24,178
  • May 11, 2011 8:13am May 11, 2011 8:13am
Quoting tankokjian
your quote rocks. my ego cause me to lose some trades today.
Another forum-user was so kind to permit me to use his.
Yes, thinking every view could be deadly wrong no matter how sure you are, has saved me lots of problems.
Psycho still does it's tricks, fases where almost nothing goes wrong are tempting to think how good you are but then there will be fases where almost everything is going wrong.
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #24,179
  • May 11, 2011 8:59am May 11, 2011 8:59am
from now on , i will learn again with a humble heart....i repent and will not be too conceited about where the market is heading.


Quoting USD-Bear
Another forum-user was so kind to permit me to use his.
Yes, thinking every view could be deadly wrong no matter how sure you are, has saved me lots of problems.
Psycho still does it's tricks, fases where almost nothing goes wrong are tempting to think how good you are but then there will be fases where almost everything is going wrong.
  • #24,180
  • May 11, 2011 11:41am May 11, 2011 11:41am
Can anyone make chocolate from this?
I'm missing some points....

M15:
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
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