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  • #61
  • May 6, 2011 5:07am May 6, 2011 5:07am
Quoting pmn100
Sorry, I meant your A/U chart from post #48. That low point for the fib seems insignificant. Not easily seen on the daily at least. Could probably ditch the fib and say first time back to high probability support that caused that move, no? But I would have been stopped out on that as price pushed quite deeply through the support.

Thanks for your input. Concerning your methods, am able to identify the areas, but the fundamentals seem to be the spanner in the works.
Ah okay. Yes it is a mninor swing low, but for me it is still a valid swing low. Of course the major part of the setup is the clear well defined PPZ which has 1st time back as addtional confluence and then the fib as further confluence. I wouldn't have needed the fib to take that trade due to the other confluence (S&P and USD pairs) that I mentioned previously.

Fundamentals are not easier and there is a large element of discretion in using fundamentals in your trading. I try to focus on risk sentiment and using correlations as confluence only. But just concentrating on touch trading and PA trading as technical mechanical methods using well thought out disciplined rules is all anyone really needs to make consistent profits IMO.
  • #62
  • May 6, 2011 5:48am May 6, 2011 5:48am
Quoting lovejoy80
Ah okay. Yes it is a mninor swing low, but for me it is still a valid swing low. Of course the major part of the setup is the clear well defined PPZ which has 1st time back as addtional confluence and then the fib as further confluence. I wouldn't have needed the fib to take that trade due to the other confluence (S&P and USD pairs) that I mentioned previously.

Fundamentals are not easier and there is a large element of discretion in using fundamentals in your trading. I try to focus on risk sentiment and using correlations as confluence only....
Thanks for the feedback Mark. Very much appreciated. It does all make sense. The real issue for me is that it is often in times of news releases that we get into trades. i.e. retail figures are released, price seems to move fast, it takes your order, and if your stop loss is far enough away, the volatility won't take you out, and price then rebounds and goes your way. The ECB press conference thing yesterday, was another bit of news (which I wasn't following), but this time it takes your order and carries on to stop you out.

So I'm finding it difficult to figure out which news is important enough to pull my pending order, and which news is insignificant enough to leave it.
  • #63
  • May 6, 2011 6:18am May 6, 2011 6:18am
Quoting lovejoy80
3rd time lucky No indirect correlations just directly correlated Euro charts.
Prior to ECB conference,both on feb 3 2011 and yesterday,eurusd made an yearly all time high and then our entry should have been on the 61.8 fibo retracement +ppz confluence
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  • #64
  • May 6, 2011 6:45am May 6, 2011 6:45am
Quoting pmn100

So I'm finding it difficult to figure out which news is important enough to pull my pending order, and which news is insignificant enough to leave it.
Get yourself educated.

Read around how Economies work. How Interest rates, Employment, Inflation etc effect them.

For an example find out what is that making people buy Euro? and when u'll find it out you will know what changes could make people stop buying it and eventually u will know piece of news is important to those people and which one is not (in the given scenario).

Sometimes markets(people) care about inflation numbers so u will see an orange flagged news item driving the price 100 pips and after sometime they dont care about it anymore and u will be surprised to see a red flagged news item barely moving it 20 pips, maybe now they care more about how Employment is doing.

Read Alaidi's, Kathy lien's and Bloomberg news articles (on FF page) everyday they are good to learn basics (well thats how i learnt it). May cause u some trouble in the start but lights will start to turn in slowly after some weeks.
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  • #65
  • May 6, 2011 2:04pm May 6, 2011 2:04pm
Will answer some of the previous posts over the weekend, but in the meantime here is a no brainer touch trade (I wasn't trading this afternoon so didn't see it at the time).

- ECHF - 1st time back to a very clear daily PPZ with double fib and TL confluence and in the direction of the current trend / sentiment, they really don't come easier than this type of setup.

There was also some very nice touch trade setups on UCAD and NU too.
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  • #66
  • May 6, 2011 3:21pm May 6, 2011 3:21pm
Quoting nasir.khan
Get yourself educated.

Read around how Economies work. How Interest rates, Employment, Inflation etc effect them.

For an example find out what is that making people buy Euro? and when u'll find it out you will know what changes could make people stop buying it and eventually u will know piece of news is important to those people and which one is not (in the given scenario).

Sometimes markets(people) care about inflation numbers so u will see an orange flagged news item driving the price 100 pips and after sometime they dont care about it...
Thanks Nasir

I do need to brush up on my fundamental analysis some more but perhaps I need to explain more clearly what I mean here. For starters, I'm aware the Euro has been appreciating on the back of Trichet mentioning sometime ago about ECB rate hikes coming soon. The Euro has been rising ever since. A little while ago he made noises of a continuing of rate hikes, so the Euro appreciates some more. Then at the recent ECB press conference, they back track and say inflation isn't as bigger issue as they thought i.e. no futher rate hikes just yet. The Euro thus drops.

What I was trying to get at with my last post was price was going to bounce at some point right? The Euro isn't going to be sold into oblivion. As an example, LJ was looking to buy AUD at some point yesterday because he was expecting a bounce. So my observation is that some news means you can leave your order in place because the news just isn't siginificant enough to push price too far, and other news will nuke through your order and stop loss like it didn't exist.

But thinking more on the subject, I think its just down to the distance your order is from price at the time of news releases. If it's too close, remove it and wait for PA, or widden your stop, etc. As an example, if my entry order is 30 pips away from price and a retail sales release is due, I'm probably safe to leave my order in place as this type of news will push price quite fast, but the news itself isn't important enough to change the fundamental direction of the market. However, if a rate statement is released and my order is 30 pips away from price, I'm probably best to pull it, because this news (as we saw yesterday), is big enough to change the fundamental direction of the market. But if my order is 100 pips away from price and a rate statement is released, perhaps I'm safe to leave the order in place because by the time price gets to my entry order, the movement may be running out of steam, and a bounce looking likely (like LJ's trade on A/U).
  • #67
  • May 7, 2011 2:29pm May 7, 2011 2:29pm
Quoting pmn100
Thanks Nasir

I do need to brush up on my fundamental analysis some more but perhaps I need to explain more clearly what I mean here. For starters, I'm aware the Euro has been appreciating on the back of Trichet mentioning sometime ago about ECB rate hikes coming soon. The Euro has been rising ever since. A little while ago he made noises of a continuing of rate hikes, so the Euro appreciates some more. Then at the recent ECB press conference, they back track and say inflation isn't as bigger issue as they thought i.e. no futher rate hikes just...
How to treat scheduled economic data/news releases when touch trading and how to interpret the moves that follow plus whether to take touch trades when the price movements into the area in question have been 'big' bars is a topic I discussed briefly in the forum last week. It's a relevant topic at the moment so worth me spending some time on it...thus I'll go over this when I have a lot more time tomorrow
  • #68
  • May 7, 2011 2:30pm May 7, 2011 2:30pm
Quoting madboy
Prior to ECB conference,both on feb 3 2011 and yesterday,eurusd made an yearly all time high and then our entry should have been on the 61.8 fibo retracement +ppz confluence
Nice attempt, but wasn't what I was looking at at the time, I'll go over this tomorrow.
  • #69
  • May 8, 2011 4:52am May 8, 2011 4:52am
Quoting lovejoy80
I saw something yesterday which I've also seen happen on at least one other occasion this year with regards EUR ... I'm not going to reveal what it was but if anyone can show me charts demonstrating why going short EU prior to ECB conference was a no brainer (I'm not necessarily looking at EU chart) for the same reasons I had in mind then I'd be impressed!
Sorry catching up late due to some other things had to deal with.

Here are charts showing PA prior to ECB conf highlighted with blue rects, that's all i can see atm.

But I was not looking at charts at that time "live" so i cant say if there was anything else realtime that u were watching, i wont be able to see it now anyway.
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  • #70
  • May 8, 2011 6:44am May 8, 2011 6:44am
I took the usd/cad trade aswell this week and the aud/usd the usd/cad was a scratch the gbp/usd i skipped.

Lol this week was strange for me i saw the accumalation in the euro and the huge move in silver what already pointed that something was gonna happen.

Then the index also was slowly making higher highs in his box and did his breakout.

I saw everything selling of after trichet his comments that he also believes in a strong dollar policy and it is better for all.

And what did i do had done studies week before reading cot was at extreme points what indicate that the trend can be till a end or a big correction was comming.


Lol and here is the funny part i became frozen didn'r do anything when the sell off started it was a damm no brainer i missed lol i felled friday so mad after the whole move i missed on thursday. ahhh part of the game but what a bummer.

I will pm you later on the day or tommorow about the atr indicator it is based on some model regarding risk parameters i am trying now for 2 months. It is not from myself i had it from somebody else but i don't wanna share it in a open forum. Because i asked him for sharing it was oke but not in a open forum so i will pm ya later. If you want it different then tell me the changes and i try to change it.

Also i have something else intresting you need Brioco for it but it tracks all markets regarding sentiment of the current market i will post that 1 here later.


Oke have nice day here full sunshine so gonna spent sometime outside.

Cya Ingmar..
  • #71
  • May 8, 2011 11:17am May 8, 2011 11:17am
Quoting pmn100
Thanks Nasir

I do need to brush up on my fundamental analysis some more but perhaps I need to explain more clearly what I mean here. For starters, I'm aware the Euro has been appreciating on the back of Trichet mentioning sometime ago about ECB rate hikes coming soon. The Euro has been rising ever since. A little while ago he made noises of a continuing of rate hikes, so the Euro appreciates some more. Then at the recent ECB press conference, they back track and say inflation isn't as bigger issue as they thought i.e. no futher rate hikes just...
Sorry if i misunderstood you. But all i meant was to get to know what kind news item could effect price more in terms of different eco and sentiment scenarios.

As u said euro is riding cause of hawkishness of ECB, So we could further investigate and find out that why are they hawkish? Cause of inflation right? so it means news items regarding inflation like CPI etc have more volatile effect on price than other numbers like employment etc (if there is not a very unexpected outcome).

We can see how EU used to react to rumers about PIIGS some months ago, but now it does not seem to care anymore cause inflation seems to be bigger sentiment driver these days.

So basicly it comes down to sentiment not news i.e what people think is important now and what are their expectations, not what used be important.

I think u know all this but i am just clearing my point.

Thanks.
  • #72
  • May 8, 2011 1:05pm May 8, 2011 1:05pm
Quoting nasir.khan
Sorry if i misunderstood you. But all i meant was to get to know what kind news item could effect price more in terms of different eco and sentiment scenarios.

As u said euro is riding cause of hawkishness of ECB, So we could further investigate and find out that why are they hawkish? Cause of inflation right? so it means news items regarding inflation like CPI etc have more volatile effect on price than other numbers like employment etc (if there is not a very unexpected outcome).

We can see how EU used to react to rumers about PIIGS some...
Thanks for taking the time to make that clear Nasir, I see what you're saying. Understand what's fundamentally driving the markets and pay extra attention to the specific news releases that can effect it. And to a certain extent, don't worry about the rest.

You get some conflicting advice about trading. I started out a couple of years back and got into the techincal analysis group with people saying TA is all you need, don't pay attention to the news. But as I evolve, I feel an understanding of sentiment at least is essential to find success with TA. Or perhaps you can make a success of TA alone but your win rate will be lower than if you factored in some basic idea of sentiment.
  • #73
  • May 8, 2011 3:01pm May 8, 2011 3:01pm
Quoting pmn100
Thanks for taking the time to make that clear Nasir, I see what you're saying....
TA is all you need.

Yeah i know where u are coming from. This advise so much bounced around the forums that next thing comes to mind after the word Forex/Trading is a chart.lol

and actually its not wrong.

Just to mention a few, there are many people out there in J16 and i think "Price is everything" thread that are successful using TA only.

A chart basically is a visual interpretation of how price incorporates any new and unexpected piece of information that comes into market. I am talking about decent swings not every pip that changes in seconds cause there are whole lot of other stuff driving the markets responsible for small moves in the markets too,... for example dealer managing their inventories etc but that not relevant to what we do in this thread and not necessary to be discussed. Thats pretty much it.

Did the 600 pip move in EU happened cause price was on a PPZ with Divg and formed a BEOB? Hell no it dint but did a TA trader had a chance to ride that move by just taking that Beob and trailing his stop?
well yeah.. why not.

A chart does show where recent Demand and Supply zones were and we see price reacting to them 90% of the times when it approaches them and that is where a pure TA trader has to rely on others to act on those levels to push his trade into profit and there is nothing wrong with it, cause with a decent type of MM he can end up with some money and when you keep on doing this for years, day after day, you start to get that hunch and experience thing that starts to save u from many loosing trades you would not have been able to avoid earlier in your career. But this is just as far a pure TA trader will manage to go.

But problem here is that this is not what many people can achieve, cause making sound trading decision by just looking at a chart with solid discipline and patience, i.e waiting for your next A+ trade without making a mess in between is not possible for 95% of traders. (was not possible for me anyway)

This where "whats actually moving the market" knowledge can take your trading into the next level and push you into profitability (speaking of personal experience).

For example there were two traders waiting for a touch trade long at 4660 on EU at 61 fib and PPZ. Price comes near and they put on their orders with 30 pip Stops, risking 1% of their accounts. One of them is a pure TA and the other one also keeps an eye on whats happening outside charts. Now u can guess what happened next right? Maybe the pure TA one would have pulled his order off when he saw that big 1h bar rushing towards his order but thats a maybe and it will surly give him a pain to decide and he may would have went on with his original analysis but the other trader who knew what Trichet had just said would be mad enough to not to pull his order off.

Where do you think Mark gets his crazy win ratio, i know he is very disciplined and patient guy but knowledge of basic intermarket, Risk sentiment and fundy stuff also plays a major role.

Also the story does not end at avoiding loosing setups. Sometimes that knowledge can help u get into big moves by just taking a crapy pin bar when other market drivers are shouting to take a trade in that direction.

So can we be succesful by just trading TA? Yes
Can we maximize our profits by looking at what influence price outside charts? Why not

Hope it helps.
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  • #74
  • May 8, 2011 4:53pm May 8, 2011 4:53pm
Quoting madboy
Prior to ECB conference,both on feb 3 2011 and yesterday,eurusd made an yearly all time high and then our entry should have been on the 61.8 fibo retracement +ppz confluence
What I was talking about was the bigger picture in relation to principally the Euro.

Look at the attached higher TF charts...the Euro was approaching weekly resistance against the other majors (namely NZD, AUD, GBP, CAD), when this happens it really means something, something like this lining up is powerful confluence.

If you think about the line of least resistance for the Euro last week when it was approaching these areas, it was clearly down, thus in my mind I would be expecting the sentiment towards the Euro to change from bullish to bearish last week. From my experience if the sentiment towards the Euro is bearish in such a way that the Euro is the weakest of the majors then there will also be broad risk aversion across the whole market (i.e. commodities, FX and stocks) and thus if I'm expecting the Euro to turn bearish against the majors and for their to be general market risk aversion then I'm expecting the Euro to also fall against the currencies that tend to rise in times of risk aversion, namely USD, JPY and CHF.

If you look at a chart of YM you'll also see price was also at weekly resistance, this backs up the thoughts above that risk aversion will likely be present in the market as stocks decrease when risk aversion is present.

From memory the last time I saw Euro line up like this, in this manner was at the end of Jan, beginning of Feb.

With all the above in mind, it's pretty clear IMO that EU, EJ and ECHF was going to fall last week for the reasons stated above. Of course the main event that was going to cause the EUR to fall across the board against the majors was the ECB rate decision / conference and it's no surprise that EUR was hitting the resistance areas in the charts at this very time.

If you understand what I'm saying above then you should be able to see how looking at the bigger picture and having some basic understanding of risk sentiment and how money flows when risk aversion is present in the markets and lastly how stocks, commodities and FX are inter-related then you can see how occasaionly this can produce some very high probability no-brainer trading setups.
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  • #75
  • Edited 5:54pm May 8, 2011 5:22pm | Edited 5:54pm
Quoting pmn100
Thanks Nasir

I do need to brush up on my fundamental analysis some more but perhaps I need to explain more clearly what I mean here. For starters, I'm aware the Euro has been appreciating on the back of Trichet mentioning sometime ago about ECB rate hikes coming soon. The Euro has been rising ever since. A little while ago he made noises of a continuing of rate hikes, so the Euro appreciates some more. Then at the recent ECB press conference, they back track and say inflation isn't as bigger issue as they thought i.e. no futher rate hikes just...
When I'm looking to potentially take a touch trade setup and there is some scheduled news / data release that could affect the pair in question I won't take the setup if price is very near my area because of course the news could cause increased volatility, increased spreads, slippage and whipsaw price movements which would most likely cause my SL to be hit and maybe even worse I'll get slippage and lose more than I intended to.

When price is far enough away from my anticipated entry price but because of the news price is moving fast towards my entry price I try to analyse whether the news fundamentally changes the sentiment towards this currency in question (of course this only applies if the pair is in a strong trend). So say for example I was looking to trade AU (which of course has been in a strong uptrend) and we had retail sales figures and I was looking to take a long trade 50 pips away from current price and the figures are worse than forecast and price starts to fall fast...I interpret this as just an impuslive move based on the immediate reaction to the poor data. What you'll typically find that this initial move will get reversed, why, because the fundamental sentiment towards the AUD hasn't changed and I know that sentiment towards the AUD is driven by the expectation for future interest rate increases, it;s current high interest yield, high commodity prices, strong demand from China etc etc i.e. I know a slightly worse retail figures won't cause a difference to the underlying trend so any move going against the trend is just a short impulsive move that will get reversed and at about 50 pips away my technical confluenced area is a prime location for price to stop dead and be reversed in the direction of the underlying trend. If you think about how the trend traders (and there are a lot of the big boys who trade the trend, it is typically only the retail herd who try to be heroes and go against an established trend!) see price falling - it's just a great discount to the current trend for them so they snap it up gratefully, hence why you can see on occasions where you'll get an impuslive news based move which is reversed suddenly and before you know it price is right back where it was before.

So for me it's knowing what can and can't affect the underlying sentiment towards a currency and assessing how price is moving after the news, if it's moving 'too fast' and is showing no sign of stalling at all I might pass on a trade as it's likely my area is too close for it, but most of the time I'll take a trade.

Of course events like NFP or interest rate decision can cause vey big moves as these can change the sentiment towards a pair, even if only temporarily. Like the ECB conference on Thursday, the market was already in risk aversion mode so the USD was on top anyway but what Trichet said i.e. removing the word 'vigilant' and thus signalling no rate rise until July at the earliest had a significant change in the sentiment towards the Euro hence I would not be standing in the way of the move that followed.

As you know I took an AU trade after the big move but this was not without a decent amount of risk involved and I certainly did not risk a big position, but for me given the move that had preceeded it, the time of day and the technical confluence I had stated it was a trade I was willing to take...but things like this do come with a fair amount of experience.

Is knowledge of fundamentals necessary to be succesfull at touch trading, no not at all IMO, but I do think knowledge of sentiment towards a pair, what is driving that sentiment and knowledge of how money flows when the market as a whole is in either risk aversion or risk appetite mode and how commodities, stocks and FX are inter-related can definitely help avoid some setups that fail and provide confluence for other setups which you wouldn't want to take by itself.

One last thing, knowledge of how money flows and markets move in extreme risk aversion events is something that I think is very useful. I recall someone taking a touch trade long on EURJPY not long after the Japanese Earthquake/Tsunami and of course the setup failed very quickly, for me I knew there was only one outcome for that trade, in fact I would have taken the exact opposite position, but some very basic knowledge of how markets react in times of extreme risk aversion whether it's cause by a poltical, economic or environmental event is definetly very useful.
  • #76
  • May 8, 2011 5:50pm May 8, 2011 5:50pm
Appreciate the detailed posts Mark and Nasir. Really helpful.
  • #77
  • May 8, 2011 11:46pm May 8, 2011 11:46pm
Quoting lovejoy80
What I was talking about was the bigger picture in relation to principally the Euro.

Look at the attached higher TF charts...the Euro was approaching weekly resistance against the other majors (namely NZD, AUD, GBP, CAD), when this happens it really means something, something like this lining up is powerful confluence.

If you think about the line of least resistance for the Euro last week when it was approaching these areas, it was clearly down, thus in my mind I would be expecting the sentiment towards the Euro to change from bullish to bearish...
Thank you Lovejoy,my persistence ended up with a good lesson,so,I feel like I've won even if my answers were not the right ones.
  • #78
  • May 9, 2011 2:32am May 9, 2011 2:32am
eur.cad
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  • #79
  • May 9, 2011 4:13am May 9, 2011 4:13am
Quoting ingmarforex
eur.cad
I'm actively watching this pair and closed a short from last week as I expected a retrace back to this area.

I'm also looking at EAUD and ENZD which have similar potential setups as ECAD.
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  • #80
  • May 9, 2011 6:00am May 9, 2011 6:00am
Eurgbp.

Which one has a better chance to workout?

1h BEOB or 4h BUOB?
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