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  • #437,901
  • May 8, 2011 9:41am May 8, 2011 9:41am
Quoting prezd
dipping lower, atm 43060
ages till retail br0kers open, loads can happen in the meantime....
  • #437,902
  • May 8, 2011 9:42am May 8, 2011 9:42am
Quoting FibbinArchie
Stop averaging your entry, all you are doing is increasing risk...

Stop moving your stops, they are designed to avoid exactly this situation...
What do you mean "Stop moving your stops??"
  • #437,903
  • May 8, 2011 9:44am May 8, 2011 9:44am
Quoting behman8850
What do you mean "Stop moving your stops??"
if you are deep in the sh*t, as I assume you are, since you're asking for advise, then you need to think about how you have gotten into this situation... In my personal opinion it is because you are not using stop loss orders, what I meant by stops...

traders who don't use stop losses, have the discipline to still execute mental stops...
  • #437,904
  • May 8, 2011 9:47am May 8, 2011 9:47am
Quoting SkyzerFX
1) Interest Rate Deferential

2) EUR - possible continuation of rate hikes

3) Chinese behind EUR (buying EUR bonds)

4) Possibility of QE3, if FED sees any deflation signs.

"As People Not In Labor Force Hit New Record, Those Who "Want A Job Now" Jump By 232,000 In One Month"

"JPM Reports Global Economic Growth Slowest Since August 2009"

Dollar must be devaluated further. One way or the other.

$16T debt is no joke.
as job situation just starts to improve. there is always a big jump. the ones who quit looking, will start looking. just the nature of the beast. each time ecb raises rates, it increases the debt of the piggs. in higher cost of interest rates. thus it increase the amount Germany/ect. are guaranteeing. there is a limit.. what it is will not be known till hit.
16 t.... compare Ireland's to the u.s.... with all things = gdp wise. and they are many times higher then the u.s. this plus the other pigs are all guaranteed by Germany. Germany is guaranteeing so much of the debt of others. its putting its self at risk... keep an eye on German borrowing cost. Bund rates.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #437,905
  • May 8, 2011 9:51am May 8, 2011 9:51am
Quoting gatorinla
as job situation just starts to improve. there is always a big jump. the ones who quit looking, will start looking. just the nature of the beast. each time ecb raises rates, it increases the debt of the piggs. in higher cost of interest rates. thus it increase the amount Germany/ect. are guaranteeing....
related article on Trichet press conference and subsequent effect on Bund rates...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...ates-bets.html
  • #437,906
  • May 8, 2011 9:57am May 8, 2011 9:57am
surely thesensible thing is to see where the momentum is when london opens and trade the levels based on that? thats what im doing.... but what do i know...lol
  • #437,907
  • May 8, 2011 9:58am May 8, 2011 9:58am
Quoting behman8850
All positions are open as I NEVER put a Stoploss on any of my trades whether short or long. I have longed from 4837 upto 4560 thinking it will go back up!. Like wise i have started shorting it .

Go back to DEMO and test again your NO stoploss strategy.

Nobody can tell you if we see 4830 again this month.

We may see 1.5, then you'll be in bigger trouble, with bigger position on short side/underwater. We may as well dip more.

Cut your losses and do use stop losses if you care about your account.
No stop loss, averaging down and hedging is a straight way to blow up your account, no matter the size.
  • #437,908
  • May 8, 2011 9:58am May 8, 2011 9:58am
Any expectations still for 1.50ish?
  • #437,909
  • May 8, 2011 10:20am May 8, 2011 10:20am
I think 1.41832 would be a good level to go long at least for short time
  • #437,910
  • May 8, 2011 10:21am May 8, 2011 10:21am
Quoting FibbinArchie
if you are deep in the sh*t, as I assume you are, since you're asking for advise, then you need to think about how you have gotten into this situation... In my personal opinion it is because you are not using stop loss orders, what I meant by stops...

traders who don't use stop losses, have the discipline to still execute mental stops...
Absolutely Archie. My *mental stops* are usually the low/high of the candle I just entered on. I close it out when a candle closes below/above that. No exceptions.

A close at that point beyond where my mental stop is tells me right then that my analysis was wrong. Close it and move on... It may come back, it may not. Doesn't matter. I'm not here to play the hope game, just as anyone else should not be.

When the market tells you you were wrong, listen to it. Either that, or pray... and see if you get lucky... guarantee this is just one of the many roads to a blown account.

I try to stress this over and over so many times here. Learn to take a loss. The sooner you learn to take a loss and realize that it is part of this game, the sooner you will be profitable. Not to mention, your equity is freed up and you can begin making your loss back.

Simple stuff, and one of the 'Holy Grails' to trading. So hard a thing to get drilled into your head... usually 2 or 3 blown accounts gets one set on the right trail though.
  • #437,911
  • May 8, 2011 10:23am May 8, 2011 10:23am
Quoting behman8850
All positions are open as I NEVER put a Stoploss on any of my trades whether short or long. I have longed from 4837 upto 4560 thinking it will go back up!. Like wise i have started shorting it .
Why did you not close your positions at the point the market told you you were wrong?

This is where your focus should be for now. Learning to take a loss.
  • #437,912
  • May 8, 2011 10:24am May 8, 2011 10:24am
Quoting Venice
Absolutely Archie. My *mental stops* are usually the low/high of the candle I just entered on. I close it out when a candle closes below/above that. No exceptions.

A close at that point beyond where my mental stop is tells me right then that my analysis was wrong. Close it and move on... It may come back, it may not. Doesn't matter. I'm not here to play the hope game, just as anyone else should not be.

When the market tells you you were wrong, listen to it. Either that, or pray... and see if you get lucky... guarantee this is just one of the...
Yeah V, I'm sure most would agree that once you learn to actually allow a stop loss to do it's job then your trading tends to turn a corner, sure sometimes it will come back, just one time it doesn't tho' and it's bye bye account and sometimes months, even years of hard work...
  • #437,913
  • May 8, 2011 10:41am May 8, 2011 10:41am
Quoting FibbinArchie
related article on Trichet press conference and subsequent effect on Bund rates...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...ates-bets.html
economy slowed as they raised. this clown raised in july 2008..gas was 4$ then. as it was close to touching that average last week we fell.. within a penny.. commodities fell last week just like in 2008 at that moment. everyone is smarter today(experience), so a repeat is less likely (they get out quicker). just like is some of the post here. you can see many are over-leveraged in gold, oil, silver euro ect.
a margin call takes them out the game. some forever. less suckers (bag holders) to pump things up in the near future. most of the market makers already banked their winnings. and wait for the new wash and rinse cycle then repeat.
whats different today is unemployment is high.. that makes holding 4$ buck gas less likely atm. watch wall mart.. it ='s china. chinese workers want more money (inflation).. it makes crap from china cost more. it makes stuff made in the u.s. cost less. it makes u.s. employment more favorable.

in the clowns defense. he has no choice. he is there to control inflation, nothing more. its the system that is flawed. there are no perfect ones.
inflation is his mandate. inflation is the catalyst for most ez government employee pay raises. (if inflation goes up, most get a raise) as well as private sector unions. so as these pays rise the others pay rises. creating more government debt for all members and adds to the piggs debt..pay raises create more inflation.. they are phucked unless they change the rules. the way it is now, the piggs get poorer. and if Germany is gonna guarantee them, they will follow. each day they owe more then the previous day.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #437,914
  • May 8, 2011 10:53am May 8, 2011 10:53am
Quoting radit27
short is best action... . While our mind confusion or fear to lose some...
sorry guys here my reason why?..any time going down... sorry slow replay
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be patient, self-belief and discipline... stay focus...
  • #437,915
  • May 8, 2011 10:54am May 8, 2011 10:54am
Quoting Venice
Absolutely Archie. My *mental stops* are usually the low/high of the candle I just entered on. I close it out when a candle closes below/above that. No exceptions.

A close at that point beyond where my mental stop is tells me right then that my analysis was wrong. Close it and move on... It may come back, it may not. Doesn't matter. I'm not here to play the hope game, just as anyone else should not be.

When the market tells you you were wrong, listen to it. Either that, or pray... and
see if you get lucky... guarantee this is just one...
Hello Venice. Thanx for yr guideance, and I AM taking notes.
May I ask, are you scalping the trend if so what TF?
Thanx
  • #437,916
  • May 8, 2011 10:56am May 8, 2011 10:56am
Quoting lukyman


Hello Venice. Thanx for yr guideance, and I AM taking notes.
May I ask, are you scalping the trend if so what TF?
Thanx
Due to my schedule, I only scalp asia, and I usually aim for around 50 pips a night. I am generally on the m15, unless price is being extra slow, of which I drop down to the m5.

Most of my bottom line comes from swing trading. I have nothing started right now though because last week was a bit extreme. It was all on the charts really, but I was being with my trades with it being NFP week and all.
  • #437,917
  • May 8, 2011 11:07am May 8, 2011 11:07am
So its 5 hours now before this week opens, a new challenge in front of us, so have we all done our homework during the weekend break, the homework of resting our mind and soul, well I have done. So lets get clean, fresh and positive and dive into yet another ring of hell and try to get to heaven.

This week we dont have any major news release, I hope it dosent end up in a boring consolidation week with little pip movements. Hope we have more news and political events happening this week too like last one.

Lets look back for last 45-30 days, we had Libya, prices soaring, rising inflation, oil rocketing, ECB raising rates, than a brief period of lull and than boom, Osama gets killed, oil plummets, Job increases sharply, gas prices on streets down by 50 cents!!, US economy and people spirits in full reversal, and where is Europe? Still stuck in war with Libya, dragging economic costs for France, and than the current Greece Crisis.

But one thing is different this week is that with all the positive spirit around the world right now, risk appetite should increase, and that usually takes Euro up.
  • #437,918
  • May 8, 2011 11:08am May 8, 2011 11:08am
Quoting FibbinArchie
interesting, cloggie used the exact same figure the other day...

I think it will really vary from trader to trader...

A hardcore price action watcher will probably put in 16 hours a day mon to fri for the first year or two, which is about 4000 hours a year, so if you are capable of learning from your mistakes and picking up and learning concepts relatively quickly and are dedicated, it is achievable in around 18 months to 2 years, even shorter if you have a good mentor...

It all seems so easy, cut your losers and let your winners run....

I agree totally. It is individual, I think this quote of 10,000 hours was for people who also work and trade in thier spare time.

Yes cut your losers and let your winners run. Easy? Yeah right, these are probably the two hardest things to master in trading... the daily, hourly, minute by minute mantra in what ever system one adopts.

How important has it been in your past to have a good mentor?
  • #437,919
  • May 8, 2011 11:27am May 8, 2011 11:27am
Quoting ady_babe

Yes cut your losers and let your winners run. Easy? Yeah right, these are probably the two hardest things to master in trading...
Interesting Part always take my attention when i started forex , But It take More time more than u think till a trader got the meaning of it

Some cut their loses -30 some -50 , -100 , -200 , -300 so the question remain
When will u cut your loses?

That depends on What time frame u use and MM AND That can done by experience only.
  • #437,920
  • May 8, 2011 11:30am May 8, 2011 11:30am
Hope everyone is enjoying there weekend. Looks like I be focusing on two areas early this week, 4255/4299 and 4492/4542. Catch you all later, PTL...
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