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  • #437,741
  • May 6, 2011 5:08pm May 6, 2011 5:08pm
What do you guys think of possible scenario: price dropping down to 1.42 - 1.4220?
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  • #437,742
  • May 6, 2011 5:17pm May 6, 2011 5:17pm
Quoting mario83
What do you guys think of possible scenario: price dropping down to 1.42 - 1.4220?

This is a very hard decision to make, I said 1.4500 was where I would reverse my mindset but I still haven't done that completely...

looking at the daily it still looks a bit bullish in the turn that we seriously need a pullback to 1.4450-1.5000 before possible new trend setting or continuation...

I would be very cautious of taking a longer trade on the next 2-3 trading days...


I will be putting on just some shorter trades but I am still long AU for 1.12-14 ish
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  • #437,743
  • May 6, 2011 5:22pm May 6, 2011 5:22pm
Quoting Larseg
This is a very hard decision to make, I said 1.4500 was where I would reverse my mindset but I still haven't done that completely...

looking at the daily it still looks a bit bullish in the turn that we seriously need a pullback to 1.4450-1.5000 before possible new trend setting or continuation...

I would be very cautious of taking a longer trade on the next 2-3 trading days...


I will be putting on just some shorter trades but I am still long AU for 1.12-14 ish
Yesterday i lost hope for uptrend in short term when my pullback trades ended with SL few times. I'm too small to fight against the trend. Although it looks still bullish on D1 or W1 but it's quite bearish on h4 in shorter period. Will see on Sunday how it opens!

Wish you all green pips!
  • #437,744
  • May 6, 2011 5:27pm May 6, 2011 5:27pm
Quoting mario83
What do you guys think of possible scenario: price dropping down to 1.42 - 1.4220?
Very good chance of that
The finest tool in the world still needs a MAN who KNOWS how to use it.
  • #437,745
  • May 6, 2011 5:29pm May 6, 2011 5:29pm
Quoting samdani786
Very good chance of that

14150...see what happens there
  • #437,746
  • May 6, 2011 5:29pm May 6, 2011 5:29pm
Quoting mario83
Yesterday i lost hope for uptrend in short term when my pullback trades ended with SL few times. I'm too small to fight against the trend. Although it looks still bullish on D1 or W1 but it's quite bearish on h4 in shorter period. Will see on Sunday how it opens!

Wish you all green pips!
So did silver...

Chart 1, silver
Chart 2, EUR/USD
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: euro.jpg Size: 49 KB
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #437,747
  • May 6, 2011 5:29pm May 6, 2011 5:29pm
Quoting samdani786
Very good chance of that
Have 4254 as the next stop. Clear 4163 and we can actually begin our down trend cycle.
  • #437,748
  • May 6, 2011 5:39pm May 6, 2011 5:39pm
Quoting Venice
Have 4254 as the next stop. Clear 4163 and we can actually begin our down trend cycle.

Seems like the press is repudiating any Greece defection now...engineered drop....probably....euro to 1.53.....yayyyyyy.....I tell you....the snap back could be ugly if it decides to plow North....

me...Im just gonna go where the wind blows it!
  • #437,749
  • May 6, 2011 5:40pm May 6, 2011 5:40pm
Quoting needpips
Seems like the press is repudiating any Greece defection now...engineered drop....probably....euro to 1.53.....yayyyyyy.....I tell you....the snap back could be ugly if it decides to plow North....

me...Im just gonna go where the wind blows it!
Yup same here. They make it so hard to swing trade when they flip things all over the place like this. Perhaps try and focus on what big money is doing would be a better course of action right now.
  • #437,750
  • May 6, 2011 5:41pm May 6, 2011 5:41pm
Quoting Magix
So did silver...

Chart 1, silver
Chart 2, EUR/USD
Silver was first to drop, so maybe it's some kind of indicator for eur/usd as of now? Eur/usd followed the drop on the next day. If we take silver as indicator then we have another drop on Monday, right?
  • #437,751
  • May 6, 2011 5:46pm May 6, 2011 5:46pm
Quoting mario83
Silver was first to drop, so maybe it's some kind of indicator for eur/usd as of now? Eur/usd followed the drop on the next day. If we take silver as indicator then we have another drop on Monday, right?

Who knows.....see...not sure if its just me or when things like this happen, as when a liquidity intervention for example, occurs....it kinds freezes my decision making.

U say, well, we should get a good retrace, yet you think, it could fall another 300 pips. So your scared of getting caught buying after a significant drop.....and because of the recent cliff dive....your reluctant to short it, due to the violent retrace that could ensue.

Jeeez, do I have to play a yen pair now?,,,,,I cant believe I said that

scalping is tough because the spreads are a mess.....I hate politicians
  • #437,752
  • May 6, 2011 5:49pm May 6, 2011 5:49pm
Quoting needpips
Who knows.....see...not sure if its just me or when things like this happen, as when a liquidity intervention for example, occurs....it kinds freezes my decision making.

U say, well, we should get a good retrace, yet you think, it could fall another 300 pips....
That is why It is always so important to never try and pick bottoms.

Wait for a bottom to form, then play. If that bottom is broken, you know instantly that you need to close your order out and short it s'more!
  • #437,753
  • May 6, 2011 5:51pm May 6, 2011 5:51pm
Quoting mario83
Yesterday i lost hope for uptrend in short term when my pullback trades ended with SL few times. I'm too small to fight against the trend. Although it looks still bullish on D1 or W1 but it's quite bearish on h4 in shorter period. Will see on Sunday how it opens!

Wish you all green pips!

Yes, but you cant change your way of looking at things completely. I know a couple of traders who are trading pullbacks only and they are quite consistent. They do have losses but it doesnt change their mindset...

Pullbacks its what makes sense for you, so you belive in pullbacks which then will work for you as long as you tweak the way of thinking...

I for example are trying to ride the confirmed trends for a short while then exit and not being too greedy...Not trying to pick tops....

But you have to stay in one mental state and try to make it work otherwise you will never get it, and eventually end up like these guys

Inserted Video
  • #437,754
  • May 6, 2011 5:52pm May 6, 2011 5:52pm
Quoting Venice
That is why It is always so important to never try and pick bottoms.

Wait for a bottom to form, then play. If that bottom is broken, you know instantly that you need to close your order out and short it s'more!

Do you scale in? If so, could u provide some help with it...maybe how u go about a typical trade....TIA

(I have always just played with 5 lots trying to get 10-20 pips a day....but sometimes, I get stopped out and some days I have to play make up...not fun)
  • #437,755
  • May 6, 2011 5:56pm May 6, 2011 5:56pm
Quoting mario83
Silver was first to drop, so maybe it's some kind of indicator for eur/usd as of now? Eur/usd followed the drop on the next day. If we take silver as indicator then we have another drop on Monday, right?
Trading correlations works great...until they fail...then, it sucks the dink of a goat...

Seriously, nobody can tell you where and when and by how much shit will be hitting the proverbial fan, all we can do is speculate...

Going into this week, I had posted a chart and range stating that until I seen what I needed to see, I would only hit the short terms, (which is really my best game), but them levels got hit in the first hour of exodus, and sailed down another 350 ish below...



Whiskey, Tango, Foxtrot?

Well, we got a whole lotta chart on the back fill, or do we?

Has enough volume been sold at top to move the maket almost 2x the avg weekly range, or will we see a AUD/USD type magic take over, where there was an actual short covering...

Long and short of things, next week will be the same as this week, and same as the ones before, price goes up, opportunity, price goes down, opportunity...

Risk assesment and money management will always be the name of the game, but if you wanna see me, look for me in the 1M/5M charts, cuz really, the little victories are more important than the battle...



AUD/USD short cover...
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #437,756
  • May 6, 2011 6:02pm May 6, 2011 6:02pm
My set-up for next week:

Quoting ScreenTimer
From Monday I'm Long Eur/Usd at Monday opening price. My stop loss is 1.4310, which around area of recent low.

TP #1: 1.4382 - if we take out this number, I'm going to move my SL to BE.

TP #2: 1.4416 - if taken out, moving my SL to TP #1.

TP #3: 1.4454 - if taken out, moving my SL to TP #2.

TP #4: 1.4525 - if taken out, moving my SL to TP #3.

TP #5: 1.4590 - if taken out, will decide for next trades.



Bearish scenario:

If my SL is taken out at 1.4310, I will place my short trades under this number, which will act for me...
  • #437,757
  • May 6, 2011 6:13pm May 6, 2011 6:13pm
Quoting ScreenTimer
My set-up for next week:
Under principles of simple session trading, your ass next week will belong to market.

Who did what and when?

Where was the Tokyo session range, and where does London sit?

Where is market truly going to open?

On a massive exodus week, closing below regular market price, setting a stop loss at what you consider weekly low can be chewed away through and stopped out several pips below your ranges on a market "GAP".

Short covering and sales should see wild swings next week, and just when you think it is safe to go back in the water...

FAWKING BLAMMO....

Ya get it again...

Next week, you will wince.
You will bleed.
You will feel pain and just when your orders on loss get hit, you will take it again.

You will swear somebody put broken glass in the vasaline before doing you cold and partially dry...

The rubber is about to meet the road my friend...

Where will you be when the closing bell rings next week?
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #437,758
  • May 6, 2011 6:19pm May 6, 2011 6:19pm
Quoting Magix
Where will you be when the closing bell rings next week?
In profit, as always...
  • #437,759
  • May 6, 2011 6:20pm May 6, 2011 6:20pm
Quoting Magix
Trading correlations works great...until they fail...
Words of wisdom.

Seriously.

But somewhat hilarious as well.

Which beggars the question, were they true correlations to begin with?

Yes, the evil bitch which is the markets can never be trusted. What held true during a certain period of time will not last forever, it will change.
  • #437,760
  • May 6, 2011 6:21pm May 6, 2011 6:21pm
Quoting ScreenTimer
In profit, as always...
Famous last words.
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