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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #24,101
  • May 5, 2011 7:45pm May 5, 2011 7:45pm
Quoting smikester
I'm not sure whether the BOJ is intervening or not, but if they were to, the majority of serious bank traders would be happy with these levels for a reversal. Pull up a chart for 1995. If you have the data, look at the daily, or even lower time frame. Not exactly to the pip, but look back through a few of my posts and charts and think again about Yen strength. What happened in Japan in 1995?
Yep.....that's right. The Kobe earthquake is kind of a roadmap to what is likely to happen this time around. Whether it will or not, we shall see.....the (economic) world is a different place now.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,102
  • May 5, 2011 7:48pm May 5, 2011 7:48pm
an interesting discussion about intervention, but does anybody know what the fundamental decision points are for BOJ in deciding to do or not do it? I am guessing there is an important cost side to the equation? It is all very well to try and get a better deal for your exporters, but how much and who pays?

Timing undoubtedly also will be important in terms of say end of month payments
  • #24,103
  • May 5, 2011 7:52pm May 5, 2011 7:52pm
Quoting VinceS
an interesting discussion about intervention, but does anybody know what the fundamental decision points are for BOJ in deciding to do or not do it? I am guessing there is an important cost side to the equation? It is all very well to try and get a better deal for your exporters, but how much and who pays?

Timing undoubtedly also will be important in terms of say end of month payments
Maybe Boj just print a few trillion Yen to fund it?......
  • #24,104
  • May 5, 2011 7:55pm May 5, 2011 7:55pm
Quoting VinceS
an interesting discussion about intervention, but does anybody know what the fundamental decision points are for BOJ in deciding to do or not do it? I am guessing there is an important cost side to the equation? It is all very well to try and get a better deal for your exporters, but how much and who pays?

Timing undoubtedly also will be important in terms of say end of month payments
Good questions Vince.

Timing certainly is important, so I wouldn't expect anything from Noda until next week.....after NFP. If this can stay above 80 by itself, perhaps intervention will stay a threat and not a reality. What's concerning though is that this pair has been stuck down here for 8 months now. It's going to take something special to kick start a reversal, and I don't see anything on the horizon just now.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,105
  • May 5, 2011 7:58pm May 5, 2011 7:58pm
They intervened in 1995 and reversed the market. The only succesful intervention in currency that I know of.
Gone to a better place
  • #24,106
  • May 5, 2011 8:09pm May 5, 2011 8:09pm
Quoting smikester
They intervened in 1995 and reversed the market. The only succesful intervention in currency that I know of.
That's correct. The only possible window for lasting intervention that I see, comes at the end of June, *provided* that QE2 ends there.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,107
  • May 5, 2011 8:24pm May 5, 2011 8:24pm
Quoting VinceS
an interesting discussion about intervention, but does anybody know what the fundamental decision points are for BOJ in deciding to do or not do it? I am guessing there is an important cost side to the equation? It is all very well to try and get a better deal for your exporters, but how much and who pays?

Timing undoubtedly also will be important in terms of say end of month payments
This is why intervention often fails. When the SNB announced their intervention plans last year and sold their currency at the same time of day on several days in order to get the domino effect that traders wait for, it would drift back. In the end they gave up, because effectively, moving the Euro is moving every other currency, including the mighty dollar. The fundamentals weren't right. They gave up.

This is different. Japan has stalled, temporarily. USA posts half a million new unemployed partly because Japanese car factories are stalled. The dollar gets stronger because risk is on. And we are at 1995 lows on this pair.
Gone to a better place
  • #24,108
  • May 5, 2011 9:59pm May 5, 2011 9:59pm
Just by way of a "PS" on Volume I looked in the NetDania help file, they define it thus:
This is an indicator used in various markets, including equities & financial futures. Displays the number of units traded during the trading period chosen. Volume is by many seen as an indicator of how “healthy” a given up or down trend is. A high volume is often seen as a general consensus on the trend

I was wanting to clarify if this was qty of Lots traded or qty of Trades placed. The former (ie Lots) was the most likely and apparently confirmed by the explanation. So what we then don't know is what portion of the market is covered by NetDania.

However, to put it in perspective for those that didn't check out my earlier post re this, about 1.5 days ago where 80.5 held for a while it was humming along at about 1.75 million Lots per 15 minutes, peaks to 3 and lows to 0.5. The 100 pip fall was from a 5 million Lot peak then it hummed along at 2.5 with peaks to 4 and lows to 2.4 for the 80 pip recovery. Along came a couple more 5 million peaks to push it back 35 and we were done, the recovery to where we are at now (back to 80.5) has bobbed along at 1 million with peaks to 2.5 and lows to 0.75.

If looking at the above data more closely session times will obviously be important too. I merely provide the summary for your viewing entertainment to illustrate that our feeble efforts are of much less effect than farting against the wind - and this is only one portion of the market!

Obviously this kind of action is driven by a whole host of things and attempts to simplify it are going to miss really important stuff! I don't have the answers, but am happy to get the "oh f" respect and understanding that comes from looking properly at what is going on....!
  • #24,109
  • May 6, 2011 4:15am May 6, 2011 4:15am
i wonder if its still downtrend or we have reached the pit ?
  • #24,110
  • May 6, 2011 8:03am May 6, 2011 8:03am
anyone got the spike
  • #24,111
  • May 6, 2011 8:07am May 6, 2011 8:07am
Quoting tankokjian
anyone got the spike
Not me. I don't trade the NFP, but I do watch with interest......kinda like Noda I suppose!!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,112
  • May 6, 2011 8:41am May 6, 2011 8:41am
my god, i miss 50 pips.......sad, must trade on all PA
  • #24,113
  • May 6, 2011 10:11am May 6, 2011 10:11am
Quoting tankokjian
i wonder if its still downtrend or we have reached the pit ?
It's kind of quiet, consider the big shocking NFP number.

I guess people are waiting for BOJ to clarify their stance on the intervention, while BOJ is waiting for an opportunity to get in to maximise the damage,

The more they can hurt the speculators, the more effective the intervention is.

Maybe they are waiting for the second dip, i.e. when people think BOJ is not gonna do anything and start to jump on the boat of shorting USDJPY.

Anyway, that's just my guess. Better stay away and wait for a bit.
  • #24,114
  • May 6, 2011 10:54am May 6, 2011 10:54am
Starting to use more excel based data analysis to figure price levels. The average hourly OHLC values for usd/jpy from 1/1/2011 to now are:
82.42 82.50 82.34 82.42

I would think that price range is a good demarcation area for going long versus going short.
Attached File(s)
File Type: csv USDJPY60.csv   100 KB | 231 downloads
  • #24,115
  • May 6, 2011 11:31am May 6, 2011 11:31am
someone is trying to push it downwards...the PA is moving pretty fast
on friday nights. luv that .

http://i1187.photobucket.com/albums/...yip1/bbb-3.gif



Quoting Darkforce
It's kind of quiet, consider the big shocking NFP number.

I guess people are waiting for BOJ to clarify their stance on the intervention, while BOJ is waiting for an opportunity to get in to maximise the damage,

The more they can hurt the speculators, the more effective the intervention is.

Maybe they are waiting for the second dip, i.e. when people think BOJ is not gonna do anything and start to jump on the boat of shorting USDJPY.

Anyway, that's just my guess. Better stay away and wait for a bit.
  • #24,116
  • May 6, 2011 11:43am May 6, 2011 11:43am
Quoting tankokjian
someone is trying to push it downwards...the PA is moving pretty fast
on friday nights. luv that .
100% retrace of the earlier spike to 80.90 completed. Time to go back up to close the day, I think.
  • #24,117
  • May 7, 2011 12:39am May 7, 2011 12:39am
Weekly chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY W1 05072011.png Size: 55 KB


Daily chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY D1 05072011.png Size: 60 KB
  • #24,118
  • May 7, 2011 12:58am May 7, 2011 12:58am
Yep, I got one of those too but thanks anyway.

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I dont know how
  • #24,119
  • May 7, 2011 12:12pm May 7, 2011 12:12pm
Long @ 79.79 small lot , tight SL
  • #24,120
  • May 8, 2011 3:45pm May 8, 2011 3:45pm
take it to the bank everyone

IF the UJ closes under 80 on the Dailys... we are going to 76... no doubt
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