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  • #41
  • May 3, 2011 9:35pm May 3, 2011 9:35pm
Hi Mark,
how you doing?


I am willing to put limit order in this 1 before work will see after it how it plays out wonder what your thoughts are on it?

Reason for entries ppz support.
Fib confleunce shorter term trend line.

Fundamental seen bit more risky because beo rate decision tommorow but the reward could be great if this 1 unfolds it is low risk entry and going with the longer term trend.

Ingmar..
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  • #42
  • May 3, 2011 9:57pm May 3, 2011 9:57pm
1 more in the loonie
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  • #43
  • May 4, 2011 3:10am May 4, 2011 3:10am
Quoting ingmarforex
Hi Mark,
how you doing?


I am willing to put limit order in this 1 before work will see after it how it plays out wonder what your thoughts are on it?

Reason for entries ppz support.
Fib confleunce shorter term trend line.

Fundamental seen bit more risky because beo rate decision tommorow but the reward could be great if this 1 unfolds it is low risk entry and going with the longer term trend.

Ingmar..
Hi Ingmar,

I have this area marked, I would have preferred if it was hit yesterday though. My entry area is around1.6420-30 rather than the 61% fib though if we 'spiked' down towards that 61% fib I would happily take a trade there at the discounted price...watching and waiting.

I'm also looking at a potential CT trade on a retrace to the 1.6 RN area too.
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  • #44
  • May 4, 2011 3:13am May 4, 2011 3:13am
Quoting ingmarforex
1 more in the loonie
I thought this area was going to get hit last week and was ready waiting to pounce but it never got there, it's still an area I have marked too on my charts as a potential trade...it looks a 'clean' area to me.

BTW can you enter any period you want on your ATR indicator you have on your chart i.e. if I wanted to display the x period daily average range can you do this? If so do you mind sharing?
  • #45
  • May 4, 2011 3:17am May 4, 2011 3:17am
Quoting unlv_tj
Mark, thank you.

On the EURGBP I would have set my SL at .8835. .8840 - .8850 looks like a great PPZ, so I would set my stop loss just below this.

On the GBPCHF I would have set my SL at 1.4525 a full 25 pips above the 1.4500 round number. I have noticed that often the 20 pips above/below a round number on the majors seem to hold well.
These are my views...
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  • #46
  • May 4, 2011 12:28pm May 4, 2011 12:28pm
Hi mark thanks for your reply's no i can not enter different ranges on the indie but if you tell me what you want i will make 1 for you
  • #47
  • May 4, 2011 3:53pm May 4, 2011 3:53pm
Quoting ingmarforex
Hi mark thanks for your reply's no i can not enter different ranges on the indie but if you tell me what you want i will make 1 for you
Thanks, I'm just trying something out and I would like an indicator that displays the x daily ATR on the chart together what high/low price this would represent for the current day given the daily open price.

Did you take the UCAD trade in the end. I had two bites at it, one when it hit the area for the first time and second when YM hit support but USD too strong at the moment (never thought I'd say that for a while!).
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  • #48
  • May 6, 2011 1:31am May 6, 2011 1:31am
A trade I'm still in from yesterday (about to implement my trade management plan now - the trade is 2.3R up)...

AU - daily PPZ + 61%fib confluence.

There was also addtional confluence from the fact all other USD pairs were at support (or resistance in the case of USDCAD) and S&P was also at a good support area too, plus after the long extended run down it was a 'good time' for a bounce / retracement (even if only temporarily).
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  • #49
  • May 6, 2011 1:39am May 6, 2011 1:39am
I saw something yesterday which I've also seen happen on at least one other occasion this year with regards EUR ... I'm not going to reveal what it was but if anyone can show me charts demonstrating why going short EU prior to ECB conference was a no brainer (I'm not necessarily looking at EU chart) for the same reasons I had in mind then I'd be impressed!
  • #50
  • May 6, 2011 2:00am May 6, 2011 2:00am
Quoting lovejoy80
I saw something yesterday which I've also seen happen on at least one other occasion this year with regards EUR ... I'm not going to reveal what it was but if anyone can show me charts demonstrating why going short EU prior to ECB conference was a no brainer (I'm not necessarily looking at EU chart) for the same reasons I had in mind then I'd be impressed!
This might be stupid but here it goes...H1 support in djones was broken just before ECB conference.
You said that you need an atr indicator,look on my chart and if it's the one you need,I will be glad to help you.

PS:I watched your performance in the shadows,and I'm really sorry that you are not posting so much anymore,anyway,have a nice day
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  • #51
  • May 6, 2011 3:23am May 6, 2011 3:23am
Quoting madboy
This might be stupid but here it goes...H1 support in djones was broken just before ECB conference.
You said that you need an atr indicator,look on my chart and if it's the one you need,I will be glad to help you.

PS:I watched your performance in the shadows,and I'm really sorry that you are not posting so much anymore,anyway,have a nice day

No it wasn't this that I was watching, nothing to do with YM charts, only FX charts .

The ATR indicator looks to be pretty much what I was looking for.

P.S. There is enough material in my 'free' threads to learn the methods I use in my trading...just takes hard work, lots of practice and the ability to trade without emotions ... but the main reason for the commercial thread is summed up by your signature quote. All the best
  • #52
  • May 6, 2011 3:26am May 6, 2011 3:26am
Quoting lovejoy80
A trade I'm still in from yesterday (about to implement my trade management plan now - the trade is 2.3R up)...

AU - daily PPZ + 61%fib confluence.

There was also addtional confluence from the fact all other USD pairs were at support (or resistance in the case of USDCAD) and S&P was also at a good support area too, plus after the long extended run down it was a 'good time' for a bounce / retracement (even if only temporarily).
Took full profit (not really looking for a runner as the trade is clearly against the current sentiment and after the Asian stock markets fell overnight there was a higher chance of price falling from the area I took profit than pushing through IMO).

Entry was 1.0585, SL 1.0535 TP 1.0697 +2.24R.
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  • #53
  • May 6, 2011 3:47am May 6, 2011 3:47am
Quoting lovejoy80
A trade I'm still in from yesterday (about to implement my trade management plan now - the trade is 2.3R up)...

AU - daily PPZ + 61%fib confluence.

There was also addtional confluence from the fact all other USD pairs were at support (or resistance in the case of USDCAD) and S&P was also at a good support area too, plus after the long extended run down it was a 'good time' for a bounce / retracement (even if only temporarily).
Seems an odd place to draw a fib from? Not much of a swing low point. Is there a reason you took that swing low for fibs? I would have been stopped out on this one anyway as price pushed about 50 pips past my entry point. Where was your SL?

Can you comment on what happened with your G/U long at ~1.6430. Lovely PPZ with the trend, 50/61 fib area. I'm guessing you pulled it as sentiment turned to risk aversion?

Also had a nice area on E/A long at 1.3650, daily PPZ confluence with 61 fib exactly. That also failed, but could have been avoided as it occured during Asian session. Was you looking at this?

Long opportunity on E/U at ~1.4530, with the trend, 50/61 fib. Currently stalling around and needs a bullish push, but not yet stopped out. Are you in this one?

Lastly, what do you think of long E/CAD at 1.4000. Nice PPZ, 50 fib, big round number? The daily BEOB doesn't look good for longs, but its a high probability area right? Or are you standing aside for NFP?
  • #54
  • May 6, 2011 3:56am May 6, 2011 3:56am
Quoting lovejoy80
No it wasn't this that I was watching, nothing to do with YM charts, only FX charts .

The ATR indicator looks to be pretty much what I was looking for.

P.S. There is enough material in my 'free' threads to learn the methods I use in my trading...just takes hard work, lots of practice and the ability to trade without emotions ... but the main reason for the commercial thread is summed up by your signature quote. All the best
Well then,it only could have been the usdchf push up just before the ECB conference...see chart.
The atr indicator is also attached...
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Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 ATRprojections.ex4   7 KB | 377 downloads
  • #55
  • May 6, 2011 4:00am May 6, 2011 4:00am
Quote
Seems an odd place to draw a fib from? Not much of a swing low point. Is there a reason you took that swing low for fibs?
I don't see why, it's the low of the overall current swing? See chart below.


Quote
Can you comment on what happened with your G/U long at ~1.6430. Lovely PPZ with the trend, 50/61 fib area. I'm guessing you pulled it as sentiment turned to risk aversion?
I didn't take the long in the end. I wasn't happy with the current strong risk aversion that was present and I already had it in my mind that I wanted to wait for S&P to hit support and for the USD pairs to all line up at confluenced support at the same time before considering going against the strong trend....I also wanted this to happen towards the end of the trading day too. Hence I passed up on the GU setup, but could have taken it lower down at the TL and 61% fib but chose AU instead...see the attached chart. It's still in this area but not interesting in getting in now ahead of NFP....as I said I was looking for a bounce in Asia.

Will look at the other questions in a bit.
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  • #56
  • May 6, 2011 4:16am May 6, 2011 4:16am
Quoting lovejoy80
I don't see why, it's the low of the overall current swing? See chart below.
Sorry, I meant your A/U chart from post #48. That low point for the fib seems insignificant. Not easily seen on the daily at least. Could probably ditch the fib and say first time back to high probability support that caused that move, no? But I would have been stopped out on that as price pushed quite deeply through the support.

Thanks for your input. Concerning your methods, am able to identify the areas, but the fundamentals seem to be the spanner in the works.
  • #57
  • May 6, 2011 4:47am May 6, 2011 4:47am
Quote
Also had a nice area on E/A long at 1.3650, daily PPZ confluence with 61 fib exactly. That also failed, but could have been avoided as it occured during Asian session. Was you looking at this?

I wasn't looking at this but I wouldn't have taken it either (easy to say after it 'failed' I know), but here are my reasons why:

1. I was asleep (lol!)
2. I don't like the volatility of EAUD at this area, look at those spikes down through the support area - I usually use spikes like this for SL placement and these are too big for my liking
3. This was just ahead of the RBA statement so I would have been cautious in any event.
4. The market was very bearish the Euro yesterday after the ECB conference hence this trade would be against the current strong sentiment.
5. For me to want to go against the current strong Euro sentiment I would want more confluence that this chart presents. It's a daily PPZ with fib confluence, I would want more than this, ideally I like the corresponding majors to be providing confluence i.e. for EU and AU to be providing technical confluence e.g. EU at strong confluenced support and AU not so or even better (but unlikely) at resistance.
6. I actually like the cluster support on 1.6325-30 area as a better location, but it has no conlfuence so a pass.

You can hopefully see that I went against the current strong sentiment on the AU trade becausse of the addtional confluence provided by a) S&P, b) the other USD pairs, without this I wouldn't have gone long AU.

BTW the easier setup on EAUD yesterday was the 4HR BEOB off the daily PPZ.
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  • #58
  • May 6, 2011 4:51am May 6, 2011 4:51am
Quote
Long opportunity on E/U at ~1.4530, with the trend, 50/61 fib. Currently stalling around and needs a bullish push, but not yet stopped out. Are you in this one?

I took this the same time as I took AU and took profit at the same time as I took profit on AU.

As I mentioned all the major USD pairs were at confluenced areas and thus I chose AU and EU and was looking for a bounce overnight ahead of NFP, AU was realy the only one to bounce so with price hanging around I wasn't prepared to give it more time as I want to be flat ahead of NFP.
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  • #59
  • May 6, 2011 5:00am May 6, 2011 5:00am
Quote
Lastly, what do you think of long E/CAD at 1.4000. Nice PPZ, 50 fib, big round number? The daily BEOB doesn't look good for longs, but its a high probability area right? Or are you standing aside for NFP?


Yes it is certainly an area of interest, but as I mentioned above:

a) current sentiment is very strongly bearish EU
b) I like to see confluence from the corresponding majors when taking touch trades on the crosses

I would have preferred it if was a '1st time back' and price hadn't moving so aggressively into this area, this stops it being a top notch TT setup for me. But I would still consider it a valid technical TT setup but I'm rather picky on the crosses when it comes to TT. I also wouldnt want to be holding this over the weekend so if it hadn't hit this area come this afternoon I would dismiss it.
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  • #60
  • May 6, 2011 5:03am May 6, 2011 5:03am
Quoting madboy
Well then,it only could have been the usdchf push up just before the ECB conference...see chart.
The atr indicator is also attached...
3rd time lucky No indirect correlations just directly correlated Euro charts.
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