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  • #436,541
  • May 5, 2011 11:58am May 5, 2011 11:58am


Quoting Larseg
As usual very wise T,

I have 1.4550 as maximum retracement and 1.4500 as a possible reversal of trend...
Trade what you see, Not what you think.
  • #436,542
  • May 5, 2011 11:58am May 5, 2011 11:58am
Hi friends,

sad day for me


This morning I took a short position at 4891. The strategy was:

from the top at 4939 one was able to count a clear impulse on many TF's.

So I thought it would be a wave 1 down or at least a wave A (of an ABC) down.

So this morning I waited for the corrective moves to find an end and 4893 was a big Murrey Math target for that.

I entered the trade and went short with a TP on DP.

Than I went away for business appointments. But instead of around 1h it took me the whole day.

The pity is, that I rated it as very probable that price would only rest at DP for a while, than go further down.<

So I am watching and watching and watching and waiting for a "safe" entry.

In the meantime take a look at the pitchforks:
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  • #436,543
  • May 5, 2011 11:59am May 5, 2011 11:59am
Quoting malcolmb14
I am a trader that trades 12 hour charts

eu moves on average 120 pip a day , 340 a week

I look for 200 pip of that 340 , adding 10 to 20% on account per week. Been at this 4 years , almost ready to retire a very happy man

I trade eu , es , oil mostly sometime throwing gold in there
Nice Malcolmb. I trade generally the 4h and Daily... Kinda wish I had a 12h. 4h is a little too fast, and Daily a little to slow for my schedule.
  • #436,544
  • May 5, 2011 12:02pm May 5, 2011 12:02pm
EurUsd is down over 1 standard deviation on the day- suggests further downside today maybe limited.
  • #436,545
  • May 5, 2011 12:02pm May 5, 2011 12:02pm
Quoting Chicky
Thats what worries me. Hope its not a fake.

lets see where we close tonight its important
  • #436,546
  • May 5, 2011 12:02pm May 5, 2011 12:02pm
Quoting kill56
shitty looking chart but it fits the box
thanks very good
  • #436,547
  • May 5, 2011 12:02pm May 5, 2011 12:02pm
Question....pure theory....Wouldnt Asia want / need to buy this dip?
  • #436,548
  • May 5, 2011 12:03pm May 5, 2011 12:03pm
Quoting Venice
heh heh heh. Cheers Chicky!
Cheers.

Closed all positions both short term and long-term. Next ten days is time to enjoy.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #436,549
  • May 5, 2011 12:04pm May 5, 2011 12:04pm
I use 12hr charts as I am a volume spread analysis trader and i like to look at volumes in both spot and futures. The daily charts of spot in esignal do not have volumes BUT the 12hours do. I have found them really good

I know there is not real volume ... tick volume is what i use... we have had that conversation time and time again.

In fact last time I had was with Cloggy at 1.3 when I called 1.44 based on weekly charts....I was called a muppet back then so I am not going to argue the volume thing again .

VSA works on all time frames , weekly vsa set ups do not come that often but when they do ...... you can get 1000 to 2000 pip out of them

Quoting Wulfgar
12 hour charts?? I love that concept( may need to pull some of those up!)


congratulations on your success my friend. its a tough game and those of us who make it definately are to be commended.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #436,550
  • May 5, 2011 12:04pm May 5, 2011 12:04pm
Quoting infinitus
Hi friends,

sad day for me...

sorry bro u will make it up market still here
  • #436,551
  • May 5, 2011 12:04pm May 5, 2011 12:04pm
Quoting Chicky
Thats what worries me. Hope its not a fake.

all we can do is speculate... but last NFP's was also a major opportunity to convert USD to EU

Low for the week that week was 4020(on 03/26 i think), high was 4233


NFPs came out very positive +216 vs 191 and unemployment dropped.1 percent

we saw an immediate drop to 4060.. and then Huge buying up to 4245 that same day..


oftentimes these crazy moves happen.. we gotta be prepared early and understand the markets enough not to be shaken when it does things like this
  • #436,552
  • May 5, 2011 12:04pm May 5, 2011 12:04pm
I am back from work and saw blood red on my screen, Why is Euro down, though US is doing bad? Is the bull run ended? No stopping on oil, silver and gold as well.
  • #436,553
  • May 5, 2011 12:07pm May 5, 2011 12:07pm
Quoting malcolmb14
what is so great about a call that went 400 pips higher ? what is causing the eu to come off is the sudden change in commodities / usd. Feds are up to something. It has NOTHING to do with th rate hike. Did oil drop 6% today due to the lack of Euro rate hike ? NO.....

did we see this move coming in the charts YESTERDAY ... yes. I even commented on it
If most of the traders here would spent a few minutes of their time per week to obtain sentiment data, some of the WTF-moves would lead to ITYS-moves (I told you so). Wouldn't it?
  • #436,554
  • May 5, 2011 12:07pm May 5, 2011 12:07pm
Quoting malcolmb14
I use 12hr charts as I am a volume spread analysis trader and i like to look at volumes in both spot and futures. The daily charts of spot in esignal do not have volumes BUT the 12hours do. I have found them really good

I know there is not real volume ... tick volume is what i use... we have had that conversation time and time again.

In fact last time I had was with Cloggy at 1.3 when I called 1.44 based on weekly charts....I was called a muppet back then so I am not going to argue the volume thing again .

VSA works on all time frames...

im still thinking a muppet is basically any trader who trades differently than the Clogster??

hey use what works! Ive been very successful and I am purely a numbers and channels guy. I have algorithms where I find Key areas of contention and identify channels. I dont even use MT4 or line/candlestick charts. I get daily spreadsheets and pages of numbers and trade purely off those.

It has made me profitable and it WORKS for me. Maybe Im a muppet too? who knows? lol
  • #436,555
  • May 5, 2011 12:08pm May 5, 2011 12:08pm
Quoting infinitus
Wow, but self experience, observations etc. does not provide validity. Period......

Come up with a study that HS-pattern work and you are the man.

Meanwhile read in the linked message the study from the FED itself about HS-trading.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=167

And my statement: HS-pattern work only in a propper Elliott-wave context:

left shoulder wave 3 end and wave 4 valley, head is wave 5up and the following wave 1 down (trend change), right shoulder wave two up. On the right shoulder you...
Alles primstens ... I love these kind of moves ...

Not boring I must say ...

And nice for trading results ...



2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #436,556
  • May 5, 2011 12:09pm May 5, 2011 12:09pm
Quoting Wulfgar
all we can do is speculate... but last NFP's was also a major opportunity to convert USD to EU

Low for the week that week was 4020(on 03/26 i think), high was 4233


NFPs came out very positive +216 vs 191 and unemployment dropped.1 percent

we saw an immediate drop to 4060.. and then Huge buying up to 4245 that same day..


oftentimes these crazy moves happen.. we gotta be prepared early and understand the markets enough not to be shaken when it does things like this
I have several reasons for going short from here, expecting more than 1000 pip drop.

But nothing is sure or even reasonable to assume in this game. Was playing for the following move. Target achieved with great pain. Will look for another opportunity in future.
Attached Image
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #436,557
  • May 5, 2011 12:09pm May 5, 2011 12:09pm
Quoting samdani786
Exactly.



Hi Samdani,

hope al is well with you. Do you have an actual EW count (long and short term)?


Would be nice to see what you are thinking my friend.

Best to you,


Markus
  • #436,558
  • May 5, 2011 12:11pm May 5, 2011 12:11pm
Open ur daily charts and THINK. This is the daily chart. Study it...everything is there.

Reversal? Many of you thought EU will go to 1.2 ( LOL ) only a few weeks ago. EU jumped off 4150 to 4900.

We ARE STILL in uptrend. Do u know what reversal is? It is the STRUCTURAL change of the price patterns. When it happens?

Think. ONLY when it is confirmed. Reaction not prediction.

T

P.S. You can see dojis, i havent marked it on the chart but u can see a full stop doji. Its an early sign of a potential fall ( trend stop ). Its NOT the same as reversal.
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  • #436,559
  • May 5, 2011 12:11pm May 5, 2011 12:11pm
Quoting mab41487
I donno.... why would a "clever" person go long here?

http://img534.imageshack.us/img534/7...workedhere.png
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Why not because moods and opinions of the people here evolves with the price in the near past. If the move goes up to level 1,48 again, those who now says "don't buy, only sell" will change their mind, but not before things is already happened.
Looks like we people are just like Moving Averages - we can show (say) everyhting for sure, but only when it's already done.
  • #436,560
  • May 5, 2011 12:11pm May 5, 2011 12:11pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
he came a day early...
Yeah ... he came a day early ... and therefore he get a hit into puss later then ...
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
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