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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #24,081
  • May 5, 2011 8:06am May 5, 2011 8:06am

I found this, it is very useful: http://www.netdania.com/Products/liv...Chart.aspx?m=c

Select $/Y from Instruments then View and Show Volume chart. Pick 1 minute time frame and watch that sucker whir round, it is certainly telling a story,although like everything in 4X there is only neat correlation sometimes. Or pick the T (Ticker) time frame for a real buzz! I have two tabs open to conveniently switch between USD Index and $/Y

  • #24,082
  • May 5, 2011 8:12am May 5, 2011 8:12am
Quoting VinceS

I found this, it is very useful: http://www.netdania.com/Products/liv...Chart.aspx?m=c

Select $/Y from Instruments then View and Show Volume chart. Pick 1 minute time frame and watch that sucker whir round, it is certainly telling a story,although like everything in 4X there is only neat correlation sometimes. Or pick the T (Ticker) time frame for a real buzz! I have two tabs open to conveniently switch between USD Index and $/Y

I don't really get the whole volume thing Vince. I know plenty of people swear by it, but it doesn't do anything for me.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,083
  • May 5, 2011 8:22am May 5, 2011 8:22am
Re volume I also am very much making up my mind - are there real (ie tradeable) patterns? I don't know for sure. However if you switch to 15 mins on the above chart you can see the high volume on the recent dive and, right now we have nearly stalled price around 79.75 and relatively high volumes. Theory says this means there is a relatively equal qty of buyers and sellers so, if volume stays high and one or the other drys up (relatively) that is bound to give the price a quick push in the direction of those that still have a job to do! Thus I would postulate that the next move will be at least 25 pips over a few minutes UNLESS the volume slows gradually. I have not been watching it long enough to do other than theorize. I do also think that price movement on low volumes is almost certain to reverse as volumes go up, this appears to be tradeable as i have been watching that for a while (but am not yet quite convinced I should add as I have only been using MT4 volumes before I found NetDania last week).
  • #24,084
  • May 5, 2011 8:29am May 5, 2011 8:29am
Quoting VinceS
Re volume I also am very much making up my mind - are there real (ie tradeable) patterns? I don't know for sure. However if you switch to 15 mins on the above chart you can see the high volume on the recent dive and, right now we have nearly stalled price around 79.75 and relatively high volumes. Theory says this means there is a relatively equal qty of buyers and sellers so, if volume stays high and one or the other drys up (relatively) that is bound to give the price a quick push in the direction of those that still have a job to do! Thus I would...
Sounds good......but I don't think it's for me. The way I trade I just use pivots and a couple of moving averages. I think volume would confuse me. I remember picking Malcolmbs brains about volume and vsa etc last year sometime......I never really did understand it so I just carried on the way I always do!!!

If you can make it work for you though, it could be really good. As I say, many people swear by it. I just swear AT it!!!!

Edit: Netdania charts are great.......very easy to work with
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,085
  • May 5, 2011 8:35am May 5, 2011 8:35am
Quoting realjumper
lol.....and the hits just keep on coming!!!
Worst numbers since August.
  • #24,086
  • May 5, 2011 8:56am May 5, 2011 8:56am
Quoting Astroman
Worst numbers since August.
Yeah....I have a bad feeling about NFP as well
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,087
  • May 5, 2011 8:56am May 5, 2011 8:56am
It is with some amusement i note the volume stayed constant on the 15 min chart then the price shot up 25 pips, but was this science, clairvoyance or wishful thinking!!!!
  • #24,088
  • May 5, 2011 9:11am May 5, 2011 9:11am
Quoting realjumper
I don't really get the whole volume thing Vince. I know plenty of people swear by it, but it doesn't do anything for me.
I don't get what all the hoopla is either. To me it's another way to be thrown off. Price and price alone tells the whole story.
  • #24,089
  • May 5, 2011 9:25am May 5, 2011 9:25am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
I don't get what all the hoopla is either. To me it's another way to be thrown off. Price and price alone tells the whole story.
One man's food is another man's poison, I think that's how the adage goes.

But yeh, price action alone confuses me enough, no need for volume to add to the complexity!
  • #24,090
  • May 5, 2011 10:54am May 5, 2011 10:54am
Targeting 85
motivation
  • #24,091
  • May 5, 2011 11:00am May 5, 2011 11:00am
We've been talking about BOJ waiting below, but where are they?
  • #24,092
  • May 5, 2011 11:21am May 5, 2011 11:21am
Quoting Darkforce
We've been talking about BOJ waiting below, but where are they?
I'm not anticipating any intervention from BOJ.

Yen Surges Up Against Most Majors Ahead Of BoE And ECB Interest Rate Decisions

http://www.rttnews.com/Content/Curre...d=1615532&SM=1

Despite Yen Intervention Fears, Market Is Different From March

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-...05-714314.html
motivation
  • #24,093
  • May 5, 2011 5:39pm May 5, 2011 5:39pm
Quoting futurebless

Despite Yen Intervention Fears, Market Is Different From March

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-...05-714314.html
The full article is here http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/mark...38501958319135

it is a quite coherent explanation of why BOJ intervention is likely to be slow and reserved for a while....
  • #24,094
  • May 5, 2011 6:45pm May 5, 2011 6:45pm
Quoting VinceS
The full article is here http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/mark...38501958319135

it is a quite coherent explanation of why BOJ intervention is likely to be slow and reserved for a while....
I have to disagree with that article. If "broad dollar weakness" and not "Yen strength" was the cause of the drop, then the Swissy would have followed suit. But, the Swissy weakend......Euro weakend......pound weakend......Gold and Silver weakend......Oil weakend......and the cherry on top is the USDX.

The article may be correct in it's analysis of further intervention, but it isn't "broad dollar weakness" than caused yesterdays PA.
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Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,095
  • May 5, 2011 6:51pm May 5, 2011 6:51pm
http://www.forexlive.com/185348/all/...vention-danger

Just read this, I really don't want to rule out the possibilities of the intervention, because Yen strengthening will still be intolerable for Japanese.
  • #24,096
  • May 5, 2011 6:57pm May 5, 2011 6:57pm
Quoting Darkforce
http://www.forexlive.com/185348/all/...vention-danger

Just read this, I really don't want to rule out the possibilities of the intervention, because Yen strengthening will still be intolerable for Japanese.
Yes, intervention is always a possibility, that's why I will not short this from down here. As we have been discussing here for a few pages now, why throw billions at intervention from way down here (again)? Wouldn't it have been more effective, cheaper, better for Japans economy to have stepped in *before* if got down here from 85.50?

Every man and his dog was shorting this thing once it got under 85
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,097
  • May 5, 2011 7:21pm May 5, 2011 7:21pm
Quoting realjumper
Yes, intervention is always a possibility, that's why I will not short this from down here. As we have been discussing here for a few pages now, why throw billions at intervention from way down here (again)? Wouldn't it have been more effective, cheaper, better for Japans economy to have stepped in *before* if got down here from 85.50?

Every man and his dog was shorting this thing once it got under 85
I Agree with your argument, but I think an analogy to the problem is, when a bunch of thugs wandering outside your house you don't know what they are going to do, until they start ram your door, and you better fight them off and keep them outside, once they are in, anything can happen.

When at 85.50 Boj don't know it's gonna fall through to below 80, that's my assumption.

I like your words "Every man and his dog was shorting this thing once it got under 85"
  • #24,098
  • May 5, 2011 7:33pm May 5, 2011 7:33pm
Quoting Darkforce
When at 85.50 Boj don't know it's gonna fall through to below 80, that's my assumption.
Maybe......but an ounce of prevention is better than a pound of cure!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,099
  • May 5, 2011 7:39pm May 5, 2011 7:39pm
Quoting realjumper
Maybe......but an ounce of prevention is better than a pound of cure!!
Indeed. :-)
  • #24,100
  • May 5, 2011 7:42pm May 5, 2011 7:42pm
I'm not sure whether the BOJ is intervening or not, but if they were to, the majority of serious bank traders would be happy with these levels for a reversal. Pull up a chart for 1995. If you have the data, look at the daily, or even lower time frame. Not exactly to the pip, but look back through a few of my posts and charts and think again about Yen strength. What happened in Japan in 1995?
Gone to a better place
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