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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #24,061
  • May 5, 2011 6:09am May 5, 2011 6:09am
Diffrent? When is down like a lead ballon not down? OMG and somebody had the nerve to think I was the dumb one for questioning these morons.

the time for TALK was a few days ago... now they have to intervene or this differnce will still be same. And even if they do intervene who is going to trust they know how to execute now.

WOW

Im with you realjumper. done with this one. I cant belive i actually was going to trust them and buy. Thank god i waited.
  • #24,062
  • May 5, 2011 6:16am May 5, 2011 6:16am
Quoting hotwheelzzz
Diffrent? When is down like a lead ballon not down? OMG and somebody had the nerve to think I was the dumb one for questioning these morons.

the time for TALK was a few days ago... now they have to intervene or this differnce will still be same. And even if they do intervene who is going to trust they know how to execute now.

WOW

Im with you realjumper. done with this one. I cant belive i actually was going to trust them and buy. Thank god i waited.
Yeah....different how??? Let me remind you Noda San....YOU said that you wouldn't tolerate any excessive movement in the Yen. I have to suggest Noda San, that you're full of shit!!

Here's a good read that try's to explain the recent drop: http://www.rttnews.com/Content/Curre...d=1615532&SM=1 I don't think it really explains anything though because it is saying that punters are buying the 'safe haven' currency...ie the Yen. Ummmm.....what about the Swissy?......Gold and Silver???. Nope I don't buy that article, but it's not a bad read.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,063
  • May 5, 2011 6:25am May 5, 2011 6:25am
Quoting hotwheelzzz
Diffrent? When is down like a lead ballon not down? OMG and somebody had the nerve to think I was the dumb one for questioning these morons.

the time for TALK was a few days ago... now they have to intervene or this differnce will still be same. And even if they do intervene who is going to trust they know how to execute now.

WOW

Im with you realjumper. done with this one. I cant belive i actually was going to trust them and buy. Thank god i waited.
I believe the reason it is different is because this time the drop is because of broad based dollar weakness and not yen strength. The last time, the EUR, CHF, AUD,CAD,etc were all several hundreds or even a thousand pips lower.
  • #24,064
  • May 5, 2011 6:27am May 5, 2011 6:27am
Intersting article. I know the Yen is considered a safe haven currency. Personally If I had to feel "safe" Id have my money is swissy along with account here. I dont know I dont buy that either. Sometimes there is no fundmental answer. I think the talking heads try too hard to pin moves on something. I heard a guy say "for once id just like to hear it went down... we dont know why". About died of laughter. Really just continuation of weeks worth of dont fight the trend lol. and traders getting comfortable with the idea of no protection under 80.

some support here rebounding fast... think this forms a pinbar?
  • #24,065
  • May 5, 2011 6:34am May 5, 2011 6:34am
Quoting hotwheelzzz
Intersting article. I know the Yen is considered a safe haven currency. Personally If I had to feel "safe" Id have my money is swissy along with account here. I dont know I dont buy that either. Sometimes there is no fundmental answer. I think the talking heads try too hard to pin moves on something. I heard a guy say "for once id just like to hear it went down... we dont know why". About died of laughter. Really just continuation of weeks worth of dont fight the trend lol. and traders getting comfortable with the idea of no protection under...
I'd love to long the Swissy, and this pair too. I think the Swissy will head back to parity at least, and I expect Yen to get 95 -100. However, I'm not going to fight the trend or try to pick bottoms here. Just have to wait for the confirmed reversal and maybe pick up a few pips here and there in the meantime.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,066
  • May 5, 2011 6:37am May 5, 2011 6:37am
Quoting wontfindanam
I believe the reason it is different is because this time the drop is because of broad based dollar weakness and not yen strength. The last time, the EUR, CHF, AUD,CAD,etc were all several hundreds or even a thousand pips lower.
Nope.....the drop was caused by speculators flocking to the 'safe haven' Yen ahead of the GBP and EU bank rate announcements
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,067
  • May 5, 2011 6:38am May 5, 2011 6:38am
agreed . grrrr angry , i closed at 80.00 , lost 50 pips . but its a good run for my money.

Quoting realjumper
I'd love to long the Swissy, and this pair too. I think the Swissy will head back to parity at least, and I expect Yen to get 95 -100. However, I'm not going to fight the trend or try to pick bottoms here. Just have to wait for the confirmed reversal and maybe pick up a few pips here and there in the meantime.
  • #24,068
  • May 5, 2011 6:39am May 5, 2011 6:39am
Quoting hotwheelzzz
The japanese fail to say a damn word and traders know its a free lunch to sell dollar yen. no fightback till this sucker drops and then scramble to "save" it soon. They just burnt a lot of traders
You managed to contradict yourself in the space of two sentences.

Cmon man, the trend is so down it's not funny, there has been no sign for weeks now that it was about to snap.

The failed charge last week, was a confirmation of the continuing downtrend, stop screaming at the world and trade what your chart is telling...nay, SCREAMING at you to do!
  • #24,069
  • May 5, 2011 6:44am May 5, 2011 6:44am
Quoting realjumper
I'd love to long the Swissy, and this pair too. I think the Swissy will head back to parity at least, and I expect Yen to get 95 -100. However, I'm not going to fight the trend or try to pick bottoms here. Just have to wait for the confirmed reversal and maybe pick up a few pips here and there in the meantime.
Yea as we been discussing the fundamentals are there. But like you i aint gonna fight the trend.

You trading commodity currencies move down? You think they retest highs before a bigger dip? or straight down from here? I really like shorting NZD. of coarse sure you know why lol. fundamentally it doesnt stack up with the others thus feel safer shorting. I like to follow the heard... i just look for the weakest in the heard to pick off or strongest to ride up.
  • #24,070
  • May 5, 2011 6:49am May 5, 2011 6:49am
Quoting hotwheelzzz
Yea as we been discussing the fundamentals are there. But like you i aint gonna fight the trend.

You trading commodity currencies move down? You think they retest highs before a bigger dip? or straight down from here? I really like shorting NZD. of coarse sure you know why lol. fundamentally it doesnt stack up with the others thus feel safer shorting. I like to follow the heard... i just look for the weakest in the heard to pick off or strongest to ride up.
Strangely enough I don't trade the commodity currencies. The sell rollover is too big and I don't like the spreads either. I've got reasonable grasp on their fundamentals (seeing as I'm in NZ), but I don't trade them.....I just watch what they do and try to use that in my trading of other pairs.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,071
  • May 5, 2011 6:54am May 5, 2011 6:54am
Quoting realjumper
Strangely enough I don't trade the commodity currencies. The sell rollover is too big and I don't like the spreads either. I've got reasonable grasp on their fundamentals (seeing as I'm in NZ), but I don't trade them.....I just watch what they do and try to use that in my trading of other pairs.
You don't consider the AUD a commodity currency?
  • #24,072
  • May 5, 2011 6:55am May 5, 2011 6:55am
Quoting geoffl
You don't consider the AUD a commodity currency?
Yes I do. Why?
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,073
  • May 5, 2011 7:20am May 5, 2011 7:20am
Quoting geoffl
You managed to contradict yourself in the space of two sentences.

Cmon man, the trend is so down it's not funny, there has been no sign for weeks now that it was about to snap.

The failed charge last week, was a confirmation of the continuing downtrend, stop screaming at the world and trade what your chart is telling...nay, SCREAMING at you to do!
You and I are not off as far as you think. I realize that this is going down and yes that failed charge last week and several fibo zones, etc... have all confirmed downtrend.

look on your chart and before this current downtrend you see where your chart was "screaming at you" to trade up? Nothing oge up and down forever. I was just foolish believing that the uptrend would continue after a pullback. that the BOJ would defend its previous efforts. never happened shame on me for believeing the BOJ. I dont see how that contradictory but ok. Just frustrated I kept capital i could have been trading on the sidelines instead because i believe the BOJ would have a plan to protect its intrest and efforts from last intervention.

Oh and do you see that base of traders built around 80 after last intervention? Those that bought there and have held because they thought the same thing... those traders are now burnt. are they going to follow through on the next go? Hardly

What is contradictory about that?
  • #24,074
  • May 5, 2011 7:27am May 5, 2011 7:27am
How interesting and lucky for me that you are there. a lot of what i read is not so glowing. Not bad per se. just the weakest of the bunch right now. What do you personaly see for rates in the 6-12 months?
  • #24,075
  • May 5, 2011 7:35am May 5, 2011 7:35am
lol.....and the hits just keep on coming!!!
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Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,076
  • May 5, 2011 7:40am May 5, 2011 7:40am
Quoting realjumper
Yes I do. Why?
You mentioned that commodity currencies had wide spreads, AUD spreads seem quite ok.
  • #24,077
  • May 5, 2011 7:42am May 5, 2011 7:42am
Quoting hotwheelzzz
How interesting and lucky for me that you are there. a lot of what i read is not so glowing. Not bad per se. just the weakest of the bunch right now. What do you personaly see for rates in the 6-12 months?
For sure the Kiwi is over valued. The milk exports have been very good this season which helps the kiwi, but the Christchurch earthquake has been very costly. Plus we have had a fair bit of flooding and other such natural stuff. We also have an election coming in November which will cause some anxiety for the kiwi as well no doubt. The biggest unknown is China.....our 2nd largest export market. If China has a problem, the Kiwi and the Aussie will both suffer.

I don't think the kiwi can live much beyond 75 long term, and I would hope it will drop to 70 -ish. Somehow I doubt that will happen though, at least not until the greenback gets back on it's feet.

It's hard to say really......I don't see the kiwi dropping out of the 70's, unless or until China has a problem and/or the greenback gets going.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,078
  • May 5, 2011 7:46am May 5, 2011 7:46am
Quoting hotwheelzzz
What is contradictory about that?
I'm nitpicking, but first you said this: "traders know its a free lunch to sell dollar yen"

And then two sentences later, you said: "They just burnt a lot of traders"

But it's good, at least you see the downtrend is firmly in place. But take the emotions out of your trading, not good for either your heart nor your trading!

I don't know why the Yen is so strong, but at a trading level, I don't care, the charts told me to sell last week, and I did. I still have about 25% of that position still open and I am grinning as I type this, the only problem for me now is, when do I close out this short?

My gut tells me to do it soon, especially with the strong spike down, there's bound to be profit taking soon, I'm watching vigilently tonight!
  • #24,079
  • May 5, 2011 7:46am May 5, 2011 7:46am
Quoting geoffl
You mentioned that commodity currencies had wide spreads, AUD spreads seem quite ok.
To you it might, not to me though.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,080
  • May 5, 2011 7:50am May 5, 2011 7:50am
there is only two ways to play the yen....1. go long the yen. 2. go long the yen..
Don't be fooled by randomness
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