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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #24,041
  • May 5, 2011 4:16am May 5, 2011 4:16am
From Gerry Davies forexlive.com

"the USD/JPY bears have been enboldened by lower US treasury yields (they’re easier again this morning)/pick up in general risk aversion. I keep getting reports of decent buy orders but they just seem to get taken out. This morning I had reports of “decent” buy orders from 80.35 down to 80.20, but didn’t even bother to put the info up as I didn’t trust it to hold. I get impression hedge funds have been decent sellers of this pairing/buyers of yen crosses of late. Obviously they’ll be some caution as we approach the psychological 80.00 line. One source told me this morning there is a feeling in the market the MOF will get serious once we hit 80.00, but that seems just pure conjecture to me. That said, I personally wouldn’t like to short below 80.00."
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,042
  • May 5, 2011 4:22am May 5, 2011 4:22am
Quoting hotwheelzzz
Its just starting to appear badly managed and inept. I am not so sure i want to take the trade.
It's nothing new.....ineptitude got Japan into this mess to start with in the 1980's. Quite how a country with (for the most part) the automobile industry as well as the electronics industry all to itself can completely fuk it up and be in such a financial mess so quickly, beggers belief!!!

I don't think that BOJ appears inept......I think there is no doubt that they ARE inept!......imo of course!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,043
  • May 5, 2011 4:26am May 5, 2011 4:26am
last line standing .


also test 80.22 S1,then 80.17 - after this i will hold for another 30 pips then im out .

http://i1187.photobucket.com/albums/z400/hyip1/bcv.gif
  • #24,044
  • May 5, 2011 4:33am May 5, 2011 4:33am
Quoting realjumper
It won't be the BOJ that turns this around, that much is clear, is it not?

Personally I think the ending of QE2 might do it
I wasnt realy waiting to trade the intervention per se. I had the idea it was a spark and that the dollar/yen would trade up. I felt if the first intervention wasnt enough the BOJ would be creative enough to step in at a well timed spot to protect their intrest and keep this going up. I am starting to realize I was wrong. Its not that I wanted to trade the intervention more than i just thought it was now a given BOj was getting this pair up so might as well trade it. I was wrong and a fool for tying up some capital on the sidelines waiting 4 weeks for the opportunity to present itself. My line in the sand is fast approaching.

As far as a major long term uptrend on this pair... as we discussed recently ending QE is the first step. IF inflation forces Bernanke to raise rates the dollar will no longer be able to compete with the Yen as the ultra low rate currency to sell for funding your trades,,,, then the yen and its crosses will rise. until then everybody is happy using the dollar, even thought the yen does carry lower rates and weaker fundamentals. But who cares sell the dollar RAH RAH RAH!!!! lol
  • #24,045
  • May 5, 2011 4:39am May 5, 2011 4:39am
Quoting hotwheelzzz
I wasnt realy waiting to trade the intervention per se. I had the idea it was a spark and that the dollar/yen would trade up. I felt if the first intervention wasnt enough the BOJ would be creative enough to step in at a well timed spot to protect their intrest and keep this going up. I am starting to realize I was wrong. Its not that I wanted to trade the intervention more than i just thought it was now a given BOj was getting this pair up so might as well trade it. I was wrong and a fool for tying up some capital on the sidelines waiting 4 weeks...
Yep...I hear ya!!

In all honesty I have no idea what is keeping buyers of the Yen going. Honestly. I mean......why would you invest when interest is near zero.....and GDP to Debt is +200%.......and 20,000+ killed in earthquake, Tsunami etc.......and thousands upon thousands homeless.........and export terminals wiped out.......and diminishing market share......and aging population etc etc etc etc.......

I do not get it......at all!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,046
  • May 5, 2011 4:40am May 5, 2011 4:40am
Quoting tankokjian
last line standing .


also test 80.22 S1,then 80.17 - after this i will hold for another 30 pips then im out .
This is what I was getting at. I think most traders are feeling this. 2 + 2 = 4ex thinks i am just one person. The yen is at that line in the sand where long postitions are likely to throw in the towel. Then what.... BOJ going to step in THEN??? Thats just a bigger opponent to fight. Its just rediculous.
  • #24,047
  • May 5, 2011 4:44am May 5, 2011 4:44am
Quoting realjumper
Yep...I hear ya!!

In all honesty I have no idea what is keeping buyers of the Yen going. Honestly. I mean......why would you invest when interest is near zero.....and GDP to Debt is +200%.......and 20,000+ killed in earthquake, Tsunami etc.......and thousands upon thousands homeless.........and export terminals wiped out.......and diminishing market share......and aging population etc etc etc etc.......

I do not get it......at all!
And that is why I cant follow the trend down on this one. I am so tempted to just join the crowd but cant pull the trigger on this pair. There are better trades where joining the herds grazing makes more sense.
  • #24,048
  • May 5, 2011 4:49am May 5, 2011 4:49am
Quoting hotwheelzzz
This is what I was getting at. I think most traders are feeling this. 2 + 2 = 4ex thinks i am just one person. The yen is at that line in the sand where long postitions are likely to throw in the towel. Then what.... BOJ going to step in THEN??? Thats just a bigger opponent to fight. Its just rediculous.
Yeah you're right. I'm short from 80.85 yesterday, with +40 locked in, so I'm happy. But you're quite right. As I said before, Noda has well and truly missed the boat if his intention was to ensure financial stability for his country.....to protect his countries fragile export lead recovery......to protect jobs and companies etc etc.

Kan and Noda have always been a joke in my book......
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,049
  • May 5, 2011 4:53am May 5, 2011 4:53am
Quoting realjumper
Yeah you're right. I'm short from 80.85 yesterday, with +40 locked in, so I'm happy. But you're quite right. As I said before, Noda has well and truly missed the boat if his intention was to ensure financial stability for his country.....to protect his countries fragile export lead recovery......to protect jobs and companies etc etc.

Kan and Noda have always been a joke in my book......
Well considering the obstacles a country like japan has to overcome to there is no room for inept economic leadership. sad
  • #24,050
  • May 5, 2011 5:02am May 5, 2011 5:02am
Quoting hotwheelzzz
Well considering the obstacles a country like japan has to overcome to there is no room for inept economic leadership. sad
Yes, it is sad. I don't mean to cause offense to anyone here, but I have to say that for a country so technologically advanced as Japan is, it is still way back in the dark ages in many respects.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,051
  • May 5, 2011 5:08am May 5, 2011 5:08am
That's it!!!. Enough is enough!!!!!! I quit this damn fucking stupid useless game.

Good luck to the rest who dare to stay.

Farewell!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • #24,052
  • May 5, 2011 5:11am May 5, 2011 5:11am
Quoting visser300
That's it!!!. Enough is enough!!!!!! I quit this damn fucking stupid useless game.

Good luck to the rest who dare to stay.

Farewell!!!!!!!!!!!!
Take a break man.......come back fresh in a few weeks or months time
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,053
  • May 5, 2011 5:18am May 5, 2011 5:18am
I just cashed in my short for +82, and that will be my last trade on this pair for a while. I'm not going to short it from here, and there's no reason to go long.....so that's the end of trading this pair until it get's it act together!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,054
  • May 5, 2011 5:44am May 5, 2011 5:44am
I don't buy into the popular 'risk aversion' reason for this drop......Swissy isn't dropping.....USDX isn't either. Gold is dropping though, Silver too, even Oil is dropping. Only Yen is rising. It's not risk aversion.........
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,055
  • May 5, 2011 5:45am May 5, 2011 5:45am
Back into freefall mode like that day during the earthquake capitulation. LMAO the Japs will never learn. Last of the Mohicans at 78.50
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #24,056
  • May 5, 2011 5:49am May 5, 2011 5:49am
Quoting realjumper
Take a break man.......come back fresh in a few weeks or months time
My account has burnt, buddy. No way to return back. I will wash dish in McDonald restaurant in the rest of my life!!!
  • #24,057
  • May 5, 2011 5:53am May 5, 2011 5:53am
OH snap they said they are "watching the market" again. LMAOOOO keep watching losers!
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #24,058
  • May 5, 2011 5:53am May 5, 2011 5:53am
Quoting visser300
My account has burnt, buddy. No way to return back. I will wash dish in McDonald restaurant in the rest of my life!!!
Open a demo account and practice while you are saving your money. Come back stronger.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,059
  • May 5, 2011 5:56am May 5, 2011 5:56am
this is what i been saying now for few days. The japanese fail to say a damn word and traders know its a free lunch to sell dollar yen. no fightback till this sucker drops and then scramble to "save" it soon. They just burnt a lot of traders, Whos going to want to buy now? What so the BOJ can leave you out to dry instead of managing this thing. No Excuse. Absolutely inept.
  • #24,060
  • May 5, 2011 6:01am May 5, 2011 6:01am
Japan FinMin says current fx moves are different from time of G7 intervention in March

Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
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