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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #24,021
  • May 4, 2011 10:22pm May 4, 2011 10:22pm
So here we are on the edge of the precipice....again......for the 8th month.....lol......talk about flogging a dead horse!!!!
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Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,022
  • May 4, 2011 10:26pm May 4, 2011 10:26pm
patience is the key.
  • #24,023
  • May 4, 2011 10:32pm May 4, 2011 10:32pm
Quoting realjumper
So here we are on the edge of the precipice....again......for the 8th month.....lol......talk about flogging a dead horse!!!!
wasn't there supposed to be some kind of coordinated international intervention?
  • #24,024
  • May 4, 2011 10:35pm May 4, 2011 10:35pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
wasn't there supposed to be some kind of coordinated international intervention?
Oh there was man, but it was countered by coordinated speculators!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,025
  • May 4, 2011 11:17pm May 4, 2011 11:17pm
i got the same as you, so happen S2 also falls at 80.50.

i wonder any would put huge PO below 80.40 even with the overselling. it can be probably the elections will cause the USD to plunge ?



http://i1187.photobucket.com/albums/...ip1/bbbb-2.gif

alot of long spikes near 72.92

http://i1187.photobucket.com/albums/z400/hyip1/bb-1.gif

Quoting realjumper
So here we are on the edge of the precipice....again......for the 8th month.....lol......talk about flogging a dead horse!!!!
  • #24,026
  • May 4, 2011 11:34pm May 4, 2011 11:34pm
Looking at USDX on the daily shows 73 being defended quite well. Doesn't mean jack though.......this thing is going down until it's not!!!........and I'd like to see it above 76 before getting too excited.
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Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,027
  • Edited 1:55am May 5, 2011 1:52am | Edited 1:55am
more like the plans of a highschool class treasury candidate. Blah!!!! if the BOJ cant get its head out its arse here and at the very LEAST issue a statement they are watching things and gather a plan of action to protect their recent investment then why the heck should I bother. I mean really they cant even "afford" to issue a FREE statement? I was looking to long, viewing this a correction but I be damned to throw good money away. Investors are hell bent on driving this down regardless of fundmentals and BOJ doesnt really appear to have their act together. Moving on for a while... hell maybe even pile in on the herd trade though that may be tough for me personal as fundamentally I cant see it. Oh well.
  • #24,028
  • May 5, 2011 1:58am May 5, 2011 1:58am
Quoting hotwheelzzz
more like the plans of a highschool class treasury candidate. Blah!!!! if the BOJ cant get its head out its arse here and at the very LEAST issue a statement they are watching things and gather a plan of action to protect their recent investment then why the heck should I bother. I mean really they cant even "afford" to issue a FREE statement? I was looking to long, viewing this a correction but I be damned to throw good money away. Investors are hell bent on driving this down regardless of fundmentals and BOJ doesnt really appear to have their...
Don't know whether it is BOJ or not, but there has been considerable buying of this pair recently......I'll find the link......the amount is staggering......yet still this pair drops......amazing!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,029
  • May 5, 2011 2:05am May 5, 2011 2:05am
Quoting hotwheelzzz
more like the plans of a highschool class treasury candidate. Blah!!!! if the BOJ cant get its head out its arse here and at the very LEAST issue a statement they are watching things and gather a plan of action to protect their recent investment then why the heck should I bother.I mean really they cant even issue a statement? I was looking to long, viewing this a correction but I be damned to through good money after bad. Investors are hell bent on driving this down regardless of fundmentals and BOJ doesnt really appear to have their act together....
There's a good chance that the Bank of Japan knows more about economics than you and me combined. So no they don't have to take their head out of their arse. Nor do what we think is right to protect their investment. Nor at the very least issue a statement. A statement about what anyway?? And to who? You?

The market is always going to do what the market does. The market is only the result of it's participants actions. It's up to us to calculate risk and know when to get in and get out. When entering a trade, one of your expectations should be to expect anything.
  • #24,030
  • May 5, 2011 2:10am May 5, 2011 2:10am
Quoting realjumper
Don't know whether it is BOJ or not, but there has been considerable buying of this pair recently......I'll find the link......the amount is staggering......yet still this pair drops......amazing!
There is alot of buying because there is alot of selling. Apparently, the sellers have more money. The big money maybe trying to exhaust the buyers into selling back to them at a lower price. If you manage the money part correctly and have patience you can go along on the ride with the big fish.

EDIT: realjumper, where do you look for buying statistics? I was just wondering because most retail traders trade with a market maker so technically the money is flowing the other way, albeit retailers are the minority.
  • #24,031
  • May 5, 2011 2:31am May 5, 2011 2:31am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
There is alot of buying because there is alot of selling. Apparently, the sellers have more money. The big money maybe trying to exhaust the buyers into selling back to them at a lower price. If you manage the money part correctly and have patience you can go along on the ride with the big fish.

EDIT: realjumper, where do you look for buying statistics? I was just wondering because most retail traders trade with a market maker so technically the money is flowing the other way, albeit retailers are the minority.
I can't find the link I was reading earlier on about this......isn't that always the way? Anyhow.........I think the amount of buying was in the region of $10 million, but don't quote me because I can't find the link. Anyway....this is from Forexlive: USD/JPY continues to drift slowly lower despite the reports of large buying over last few days. More large bids are again being reported from 80.40 down through 80.15 and the presumption is that there is some semi-official Japanese interest there. Large stops noted below 80.10 and 80.00. Ranges: USD/JPY 80.42/69

By the way 4ex.....I don't look in specific places for the info, and I certainly don't trade according to it. I just surf around during the quiet spells to see what I can learn.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,032
  • May 5, 2011 2:44am May 5, 2011 2:44am
Quoting realjumper
I can't find the link I was reading earlier on about this......isn't that always the way? Anyhow.........I think the amount of buying was in the region of $10 million, but don't quote me because I can't find the link. Anyway....this is from Forexlive:...
The figure was 10Billion yesterday from the high to mid 80's...now figure 12-13 now...never know exactly how much volume there is down to the 80 figure but stops at 80.10 and 80.0 Looking to buy @ 79.87 and 78.31 if I m lucky..NFP push down here to cover no doubt
  • #24,033
  • May 5, 2011 2:52am May 5, 2011 2:52am
Quoting peterg
The figure was 10Billion yesterday from the high to mid 80's...now figure 12-13 now...never know exactly how much volume there is down to the 80 figure but stops at 80.10 and 80.0 Looking to buy @ 79.87 and 78.31 if I m lucky..NFP push down here to cover no doubt
Yep......10 billion, that's right. Thanks
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,034
  • May 5, 2011 2:59am May 5, 2011 2:59am
They've been grinding this thing down for about a month now without a meaningful bounce...And coming into NFP event risk it'll be interesting to note how and when this "Big" money" unwinds.
  • #24,035
  • May 5, 2011 3:19am May 5, 2011 3:19am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
There's a good chance that the Bank of Japan knows more about economics than you and me combined. So no they don't have to take their head out of their arse.
Absolutely the executives at BOJ have way more schooling than me regarding economics. But my statements encompass common sense. This is really besides the point but I have known many highly educated individuals with little common sense. Back on point the BOJ was uncomfortable with pricing on the Yen not too far from here. That is simply a fact no matter it comes from you, me or an economist.

Quoting 2+2=4ex
Nor do what we think is right to protect their investment. Nor at the very least issue a statement. A statement about what anyway?? And to who? You?
You really think I am that delusional that I think the BOJ cares anyhting about my sentiments? LOL You have me wrong. My sentiment stem from the fact I KNOW they do care VERY MUCH about the appreciation of the Yen and the effects it has on their economy. It doesnt take a PHD in economics to figure that out... they sent the alarm off a little over a month ago. And while they dont care about me personally they do need to manage the mindset and expectations of the masses of traders if they are to achieve a goal of turning around the Yen. If the BOJ came out with just a statement that they are worried about prices here they now have to seriusly consider another round of intervention... do you really think that would not stop the rise of the yen? Personally I doubt they even have to follow through after what happened in march. But they cant even do something that simple leaves me feeling they are not doing good job at protecting their OWN interest... not me. I just wont bother putting my cash on the line if they cant follow through.

And how do you think traders who made that bet in march feel right now? They had faith in the BOJ... now they are holding a postition that is not far from where they started and loosing faith in BOJ every day. Its those traders they are foolsih to lose. Its in their interst to protect them because both sides have a common goal. This is just common sense... you dont need a PHD to understand.

Quoting 2+2=4ex
The market is always going to do what the market does. The market is only the result of it's participants actions. It's up to us to calculate risk and know when to get in and get out. When entering a trade, one of your expectations should be to expect anything.
My point exactly. I had an interest in longing this pair on this pullback. As the days drag on I see less reasons to make that trade. My risk and expectations are telling me that if BOJ cant exert a little effort soon why should I take the trade. Instead of forming a nice thechnical, self sustaining uptrend it becomes a game of cat and mouse.... that i am not interested in playing. If BOJ cant see that then why bother trusting those PHDs.

Personally I can walk away and not make the trade. An opportunity that never materialized... at least I haven't lost anything. You say good, BOJ wont care and thats true.... but they better care if the majority start to feel that way.
  • #24,036
  • May 5, 2011 3:36am May 5, 2011 3:36am
BOJ intervention is just a part of a traders self fulfilling expectation. it applies to all other currencies as well.

no body knows where the deepest pit was now, it takes one news to spark the entire route up. patience is the key .

Quoting hotwheelzzz
My point exactly. I had an interest in longing this pair on this pullback. As the days drag on I see less reasons to make that trade. My risk and expectations are telling me that if BOJ cant exert a little effort soon why should I take the trade. Instead of forming a nice thechnical, self sustaining uptrend it becomes a game of cat and mouse.... that i am not interested in playing. If BOJ cant see that then why bother trusting those PHDs.

Personally I can walk away and not make the trade. An opportunity that never materialized... at least I...
  • #24,037
  • May 5, 2011 3:50am May 5, 2011 3:50am
This whole intervention thing is very interesting. There has been 2 or 3 great opportunities for Noda to act, yet he has failed to do so. It would seem that both sets of intervention......one recently and one last year, were almost done as 'last ditch desperation' moves. From Noda, there was no follow through, and the reason for the no follow through is unknown. What is known though, at least to an economic dummy like me, is that he seems to be throwing money away. I would have thought that it is easier to 'keep a tyre inflated, than it is to blow it up from dead flat, time and time again.

Having said that, there must be a reason. After intervention 1, Noda got growled at by USA for interfering in the currency, when they were trying to get China to stop interfering!

This time though, the G7 gave Noda the 'go ahead', and in fact agrred to unified action. After the initial intervention spike up, the Yen dropped a little before continuing to 85.50.

So now we are 500 pips lower, and counting. So what was the point of the intervention?? To hit it with another burst of intervention at (say) 85, would have been good.....now, it's too late.

To me, the way Noda works is similar to the 'ambulance at the bottom of cliff' scenario!

If he has a reason, damned if I can see it!!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,038
  • May 5, 2011 3:59am May 5, 2011 3:59am
yes. patience. four weeks worth! lol thats where my frustration stems from. sitting by waiting for an opportunity to present itself. As someone said four weeks a no bounce. potential zone after zone is passed by. getting to doubt there is going to be a bounce. PERSONALY past the .618 fibo and i wont make the trade... even if BOJ promises the moon.
  • #24,039
  • May 5, 2011 4:07am May 5, 2011 4:07am
Quoting hotwheelzzz
yes. patience. four weeks worth! lol thats where my frustration stems from. sitting by waiting for an opportunity to present itself. As someone said four weeks a no bounce. potential zone after zone is passed by. getting to doubt there is going to be a bounce. PERSONALY past the .618 fibo and i wont make the trade... even if BOJ promises the moon.
It won't be the BOJ that turns this around, that much is clear, is it not?

Personally I think the ending of QE2 might do it, but it might not.......elections might do, and might not. There are many sparks that could ignite the reversal flame, but Noda ain't one of them!!!

Don't be sitting here waiting to trade the intervention. It may not come, and if it does, it probably won't stick.....as we have seen.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,040
  • May 5, 2011 4:16am May 5, 2011 4:16am
after the big run up to 85 a correction isnt a bad thing. But now most of the opportunities to resume have past to keep this going. Let it fall much further and you are only repeating the cycle... not kick starting a self sustaining cycle.

Love the analogy about the flat tire. Easier to keep it inflated until it gets to the service station for a complete fix rather than just let it run right back down again.

Why wait for this to get back into the 70's before intervention again? Thats just creating an endless cycle instead of using limited intervention timed just right to create a technical uptrend????

Its just starting to appear badly managed and inept. I am not so sure i want to take the trade.
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