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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #2,361
  • May 3, 2011 1:37pm May 3, 2011 1:37pm
Quoting mzvega
Great analysis! Good to see levels I overlook

Thanks - I just came back to my screen to see that €s retraced ~50% into the area that held for a couple of hours earlier.......its around todays Daily Pivot and yesterdays NY close, so a well watched area....also the top of todays DVA......IF €s going to head north in the US afternoon, here's a good place to start.....

@ tgwhbb......nicely done, you must be taking those Patience Pills...
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,362
  • May 3, 2011 1:40pm May 3, 2011 1:40pm
Quoting Islander
Thanks - I just came back to my screen to see that €s retraced ~50% into the area that held for a couple of hours earlier.......its around todays Daily Pivot and yesterdays NY close, so a well watched area....also the top of todays DVA......IF €s going to head north in the US afternoon, here's a good place to start.....

@ tgwhbb......nicely done, you must be taking those Patience Pills...
indeed, my "shorts" were getting hot!!
Change is the only constant
  • #2,363
  • May 3, 2011 1:52pm May 3, 2011 1:52pm
Quoting Islander
Thanks - I just came back to my screen to see that €s retraced ~50% into the area that held for a couple of hours earlier.......its around todays Daily Pivot and yesterdays NY close, so a well watched area....also the top of todays DVA......IF €s going to head north in the US afternoon, here's a good place to start.....

@ tgwhbb......nicely done, you must be taking those Patience Pills...
Im looking for price to move through the va possible test of the 24h open. Todays pa is very simular to yest. A test of the open imo would be a good judge of the overall daily sentiment.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,364
  • May 3, 2011 1:57pm May 3, 2011 1:57pm
so, as to be expected, this being NFP week, it is not meant to be an easy week. as mentioned i got out unscathed today, so time to take a step back and look at the charts again. Here's my rationalization of what has happened during this weekly IB.

First off, we can see today we have started one-timeframing down. One could have said the same yesterday, but with the higher high, and VA and POC unchanged since last Thursday, IMO it was a weaker signal yesterday. Today value is still overlapping, so caution must be taken, but the POC is lower make that a first downside target as EU currently seems to be getting accepted back into value.

While still a few hours left in the day, it appears we have our weekly IB set, and with that the extensions. As stated over the weekend, I was aiming for 4650 on the downside, but i have since then revised down to 4610 based on the weekly DIBL. Hence my pending buy limit there.

So what has happened during the weekly IB? Price 1st made the high, then the low, then challenged the high again. A reasonable expectation is that the weekly IB low gets challenged and if the expected response is not found (buyers), then down to the double weekly IB low.

One thing I should mention, i'm still seeing bullish volume on the 15M and even 30M - volume not increasing as price drops. I'm therefore proceeding with caution due to that and the many news announcements starting tomorrow. Good luck to all!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Change is the only constant
  • #2,365
  • May 3, 2011 2:04pm May 3, 2011 2:04pm
Quoting tgwhbb
so, as to be expected, this being NFP week, it is not meant to be an easy week. as mentioned i got out unscathed today, so time to take a step back and look at the charts again. Here's my rationalization of what has happened during this weekly IB.

First off, we can see today we have started one-timeframing down. One could have said the same yesterday, but with the higher high, and VA and POC unchanged since last Thursday, IMO it was a weaker signal yesterday. Today value is still overlapping, so caution must be taken, but the POC is lower make...
Thanx! I always enjoy your analysis!
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,366
  • May 3, 2011 2:11pm May 3, 2011 2:11pm
there was a question earlier abou the weekly profile. while I'm no where near a pro, here's my take on it.

last week's VAH was tested and rejected - setting this week's IBH. This happened after opening in last week's value. we should expect to travers to last week's VAL, which interestingly enough coincides with this week's DIBL ~4610.

IMO, if/once the weekly IBL breaks, price should move quickly through that low volume node that i circled before finding some resistance at the 4650 high volume node area (boxed in).

I like to play things out in my head sometimes - not always a good thing though - and if I were a betting man, i'd say price breaks through the weekly IBL and quickly moves down to 4650, where it bounces and then builds value in the LVN. Doing so in that manner would indicate that value is being built higher and hence upward continuation should occur. If that does happen and EU goes into NFP Friday near the 1.47 handle, the NFP hour could provide the 80 pip drop to 4610 (check most NFP days, 80 pips in 15 minutes is not unusual).

Of course, that is hypothetical, trade what is on the charts, not based on the above statement - I know that is what I keep telling myself
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Change is the only constant
  • #2,367
  • May 3, 2011 2:12pm May 3, 2011 2:12pm
Quoting mzvega
Thanx! I always enjoy your analysis!
thx! I enjoy the exercise as well, mostly though to go back and see where I was wrong
Change is the only constant
  • #2,368
  • May 3, 2011 2:17pm May 3, 2011 2:17pm
For anyone who uses the QClose% in the info history may want to correct it. We should get values of 0%-100%. It also changes depending on tf. But the correction fixed it for me.

//-------------QCLOSE TEST----------------

I took the second line:

"double dblPieceOfChange = Close[endbar] - ll; //Reduce the final price by the low, as the low represents 0%"

and did this small change:
double dblPieceOfChange = close - ll; //Reduce the final price by the low, as the low represents 0%"
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,369
  • May 3, 2011 2:18pm May 3, 2011 2:18pm
Quoting tgwhbb
thx! I enjoy the exercise as well, mostly though to go back and see where I was wrong
I agree, its a good excercise
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,370
  • Edited 2:24pm May 3, 2011 2:22pm | Edited 2:24pm
Quoting AlienTrader
hi mzvega,

funny that I have also sometimes described to others that trading forex is like a 3d chess game, but I have also added while playing in the dark on a roller-coaster & the rules keep changing. Granted that is how it feels sometimes when trying to day-trade with large lots & all goes wrong or I survive just by the skin of my teeth. Yet feels so simple & effortless when all goes to plan & is over quickly.

In a past life I was involved in 3d graphics & animation & have often dreamt of software that could visualize the chart data into...
I to agree that TPO info could be quite valuable for analysis. Do you have any ideas how we may use the info we have available to achieve this??? Or any ideas how to organize the data available?
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,371
  • May 3, 2011 2:49pm May 3, 2011 2:49pm
is it just me or is volume really high for this time of day?
Change is the only constant
  • #2,372
  • May 3, 2011 7:16pm May 3, 2011 7:16pm
Quoting mzvega
Good Trade!
Thanks Claudia.
  • #2,373
  • May 3, 2011 8:42pm May 3, 2011 8:42pm
Closed my 1.4816 short @1.4788. Still holding 1.48884 short. Ill hold it just alittle while longer. Its been a long day
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,374
  • May 3, 2011 9:38pm May 3, 2011 9:38pm
Quoting tgwhbb
is it just me or is volume really high for this time of day?
Hi tgwhbb, long time no see

I just grab this screenie of 6E from my bro's lappy showing those footies..(footprint charts)

Looks like u are right on with some sort of absorption going on now, right back into previous absorption level...but not a lot of initiatives at the movement..yet

*When u see sudden spike of negative numbers when price got markdown...it means some form of absorptions. Vice versa if price got markup, u see green delta color labels instead of red ones. At least that is what my bro told me

I got to get myself one of this toy...

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  • #2,375
  • May 3, 2011 10:39pm May 3, 2011 10:39pm
Quoting alexm
Welcome home Evak
Tks for the warm welcome

After my "butter finger" incident

I was off to Japan for some volunteer work for 2+ weeks & now back home.

Notice Bundung's update of MP indicators I am thinking this guy is THE catalyst that is rocking the mt4 world for us people who wants to explore MP w/o having to switch platform or spent more money...tku B!

Now i have no more crashes & i thought then i was the only one getting it...haha

Oh i got some stuff of JD (FOV) shhhh...as a homecoming gift to u all, if u do not have it already...(sorry folks only for those regulars here that i know..) don't wana get into trouble u know. But i will have to wait for my PM to be active...
  • #2,376
  • May 4, 2011 1:18am May 4, 2011 1:18am
Evak, actually I hv a strange felling that he is watching this thread. I dunno why.

All I can say is once u reason and read d market like him, u are in d same camp with michael Jordan, I recommend ppl to buy his book n video. His experience n wisdom is priceless.
  • #2,377
  • May 4, 2011 1:35am May 4, 2011 1:35am
Quoting alexm
Evak, actually I hv a strange felling that he is watching this thread. I dunno why.

All I can say is once u reason and read d market like him, u are in d same camp with michael Jordan, I recommend ppl to buy his book n video. His experience n wisdom is priceless.
if he is a "learner" he should watching it to improve his knowledge hehehe

KG
  • #2,378
  • May 4, 2011 2:39am May 4, 2011 2:39am
Quoting mzvega
I to agree that TPO info could be quite valuable for analysis. Do you have any ideas how we may use the info we have available to achieve this??? Or any ideas how to organize the data available?
good morning mzvega,

back in the day I experimented with inputting the data into the software to generate 3d bars. Playing around with depth & perspective to see if any insight could be found. It really was just a small sample as it was very time consuming. Today it would be automated. Sorry I do not have the info or knowledge about what you ask, everything has advanced so much it is a new world in 3d.

But I honestly believe modern humans over complicate things. In trading I think it is because the lack of certainty & lack of executing risk control. I lean toward minimalism visually & in the thought process. So I am no longer interested in doing anything that will make things more complicated than they need to be.

That is my quest & TPO 2d charts seem to give a clear HUD of the bigger field of view. This area is completely new to me & I am still experimenting in how best to incorporate it into my daily work.


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best wishes

alientrader
  • #2,379
  • Edited 3:43am May 4, 2011 2:56am | Edited 3:43am
Hi Guys,

I've two questions maybe someone of you can answer:

1. On the attached profile (weekly) we see price stopped at the single print of last week. Does it has any significance?
2. Looking at area below TPO we see more prints. TPO count applicable?

EDIT: my thoughts are based on Dalton's questions: Where is market trying to go? And is it doing a good job to go in that direction?
So, if it was/is to go down it has to do a better job.

Thanks
Ox
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  • #2,380
  • Edited 3:51am May 4, 2011 3:40am | Edited 3:51am
Quoting Oxford
Hi Guys,

I've two questions maybe someone of you can answer:

1. On the attached profile (weekly) we see price stopped at the single print of last week. Does it has any significance?

2. Looking at area below TPO we see more prints. TPO count applicable?

Thanks
Ox
1: It should; notice that the single prints occur way off the previous week value area. At first one can assume a certain amount of overvalue prior to the single prints but with the single print, Long-term Buyers INITIATES at that level despite being on an unfair high relative to previous week value.

I would have assume that is significant since it indicates a clear signs of change in supply & demand have occur there @4750 LVN


2: TPO counts: yes & no i suppose since u can view last week double distribution-like formation as 2 separates entity....so just count base on the top most distribution i suppose, if that is the case the count could be pretty much 50/50 to me.

Attached Image
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