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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #2,341
  • May 3, 2011 9:51am May 3, 2011 9:51am
Quoting Oxford
Can someone of you AMT, MP pros give his opinion/reading of the current weeks profile? Would be really nice.

Thanks.
Ox
Im no pro but imo we closed inside previous weeks va indicating imo balance. We have tested previous weeks VAH and was rejected. I would like to think we'll test previous weeks val. Also we open above previous month vah, imo overbought, needing to test mon vah. But Tgwhbb, imo has some of the best analysis, he doesnt miss much in the way of reference area. He always sees 2 or 3 things I overlook!
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,342
  • May 3, 2011 9:53am May 3, 2011 9:53am
Quoting mzvega
I took that one too. Im willing to hold it to DIBH. If it exeeds the DIBH Ill consider bailing.
It looks like a solid trade premise. Whats your target? I'm looking for DS1, VAL, London Initial balance downside target 1 range. Interesting market someone big is trying to influence the dollar by using the swissy. He looks like he will not win that battle.
  • #2,343
  • May 3, 2011 9:59am May 3, 2011 9:59am
Thanks very much for this great review! Very insightful. I hope Tgwhbb will give his view too.


Quoting mzvega
Im no pro but imo we closed inside previous weeks va indicating imo balance. We have tested previous weeks VAH and was rejected. I would like to think we'll test previous weeks val. Also we open above previous month vah, imo overbought, needing to test mon vah. But Tgwhbb, imo has some of the best analysis, he doesnt miss much in the way of reference area. He always sees 2 or 3 things I overlook!
  • #2,344
  • May 3, 2011 10:05am May 3, 2011 10:05am
Quoting Kang_Gun
me too...

KG
ups.. have to close it +2

KG
  • #2,345
  • May 3, 2011 10:07am May 3, 2011 10:07am
Quoting tgwhbb
i assume you mean DIBL @ 1.4723. That is my target as well.

mz, re IB volumes, check out today's. London IB 75% wider than average, on 21% increased volume, this supports the down move IMO. NY IB 75% wider than average, but only on 8% more volume, not supporting the up move IMO. curious what other's volumes are for the IB's.
DIBH it the place where I need to admit Im wrong if PA exceeds. My target, If price wasnt moving against me (exceeding the IBH), 3x 1.46295, but If it does and rejects, the 1.5 -2x to the downside would be the target, if Im counting measured moves.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,346
  • Edited 10:19am May 3, 2011 10:10am | Edited 10:19am
Just a quick scalp buy from 1.4795 to last week VAH 1.4877. Lets see the one time frame PA will last. So far it is good to see volume supporting the move.

Decided to close it at 4869. That was fast LoL!!
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  • #2,347
  • May 3, 2011 10:12am May 3, 2011 10:12am
Quoting alexm
Just a quick scalp buy from 1.4795 to last week VAH 1.4877. Lets see the one time frame PA will last. So far it is good to see volume supporting the move.
very good

KG
  • #2,348
  • May 3, 2011 10:21am May 3, 2011 10:21am
Quoting Kang_Gun
very good

KG
Thanks KG.
  • #2,349
  • May 3, 2011 10:33am May 3, 2011 10:33am
Quoting mzvega
DIBH it the place where I need to admit Im wrong if PA exceeds. My target, If price wasnt moving against me (exceeding the IBH), 3x 1.46295, but If it does and rejects, the 1.5 -2x to the downside would be the target, if Im counting measured moves.
well, terrible day so far... that's what i get for trying to short the euro...
Change is the only constant
  • #2,350
  • May 3, 2011 10:53am May 3, 2011 10:53am
Quoting tgwhbb
well, terrible day so far... that's what i get for trying to short the euro...
I agree, but I just added to that short. Its the same trade I did yesterday. yest I went @short same place. I added on a failure. I dont dont sugguest anyone else do this. I dont trade large lot size. lets see how bad this blows in my face
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,351
  • May 3, 2011 10:54am May 3, 2011 10:54am
Quoting mzvega
I agree, but I just added to that short. Its the same trade I did yesterday. yest I went @short same place. I added on a failure. I dont dont sugguest anyone else do this. I dont trade large lot size. lets see how bad this blows in my face
i'm in the same short. last one for the day if it doesn't work out...but POC and value are down below, so a retrace should happen....
Change is the only constant
  • #2,352
  • May 3, 2011 10:56am May 3, 2011 10:56am
I'm keeping my short also as the last upmove was on lower/decreasing volume. Let's see.

One thing I've learned today: trust yourself! I looked at todays profile about three hours ago and thought that must go up to complete it's shape; it was as we were testing POC. Like Dalton says, it's like a puzzle.


Quoting mzvega
I agree, but I just added to that short. Its the same trade I did yesterday. yest I went @short same place. I added on a failure. I dont dont sugguest anyone else do this. I dont trade large lot size. lets see how bad this blows in my face
  • #2,353
  • May 3, 2011 10:58am May 3, 2011 10:58am
we're all somewhat like-minded. Makes me smiling even on a bad day.

Quoting tgwhbb
i'm in the same short. last one for the day if it doesn't work out...but POC and value are down below, so a retrace should happen....
  • #2,354
  • May 3, 2011 10:59am May 3, 2011 10:59am
I have a small rule about trades taken inside the daily VA. If I do I reduce my trade size by more than half. I tend to risk alittle more on the edges as they are higher probaility trades.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,355
  • May 3, 2011 11:01am May 3, 2011 11:01am
makes sense to me.

Quoting mzvega
I have a small rule about trades taken inside the daily VA. If I do I reduce my trade size by more than half. I tend to risk alittle more on the edges as they are higher probaility trades.
  • #2,356
  • May 3, 2011 11:02am May 3, 2011 11:02am
Quoting alexm
Just a quick scalp buy from 1.4795 to last week VAH 1.4877. Lets see the one time frame PA will last. So far it is good to see volume supporting the move.

Decided to close it at 4869. That was fast LoL!!
Good Trade!
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,357
  • May 3, 2011 11:22am May 3, 2011 11:22am
For me, AMT is another tool to be used in conjunction with known S&R levels and time lines.

This morning at the Frankfurt Open the confluence of 3 POCs, a monthly pivot and a fibonacci retracement offered plenty of short entries, especially if viewed on the 5 min chart.

For the fifth day the support area around 4747 was active as confirmed by the ultra high volume tweezers at the morning low.

The subsequent higher low on a lower volume harami and the later HL at the New York Open confirmed the potential to revisit the upper area of todays developing VA. Then the wide ranged candle into 5pm in Europe broke the earlier highs to retest the 2007 high.

Now what will the US afternoon session bring?? I've had sufficient excitement for today, so I'll find out in the morning.....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon6.gif
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,358
  • May 3, 2011 11:57am May 3, 2011 11:57am
Quoting Islander
For me, AMT is another tool to be used in conjunction with known S&R levels and time lines.

This morning at the Frankfurt Open the confluence of 3 POCs, a monthly pivot and a fibonacci retracement offered plenty of short entries, especially if viewed on the 5 min chart.

For the fifth day the support area around 4747 was active as confirmed by the ultra high volume tweezers at the morning low.

The subsequent higher low on a lower volume harami and the later HL at the New York Open confirmed the potential to revisit the upper area of todays...
Great analysis! Good to see levels I overlook
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,359
  • May 3, 2011 12:36pm May 3, 2011 12:36pm
Quoting tgwhbb
i'm in the same short. last one for the day if it doesn't work out...but POC and value are down below, so a retrace should happen....
closed all shorts @4838 (developing VAH), small profit for the day, patience paid off.
Change is the only constant
  • #2,360
  • May 3, 2011 1:32pm May 3, 2011 1:32pm
Quoting tgwhbb
closed all shorts @4838 (developing VAH), small profit for the day, patience paid off.
Hope you guys built some confidence today in MP levels. Today was a day where patience paid off. Instead of a loss it was quite possible to have sizable gains playing the extension. That happens quite often if the original entry was a legitimate entry. That is why I personally believe in scaling methods. Best thread on FF for that is FTI's Technical Analysis Fallacy.
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